watch the laws, not just the charts.stablecoins were once the rebels of finance—anchored to fiat yet untethered from traditional banking laws, but the tides are turning. Across major economies, lawmakers are drawing up legal frameworks that place stablecoins inside the banking sector rather than outside of it. This shift could be the most pivotal regulatory development since Bitcoin was born.
But what does this really mean for traders, investors, and markets?
In this @TradingView blog we’ll unpack the new laws on stablecoins entering the banking realm, and what their ripple effect might look like, using past regulatory shifts as a lens to foresee market behavior.
🧾 Section 1: What the New Stablecoin Laws Say
Many regions—especially the EU, UK, Japan, and the US—are moving toward a model where stablecoin issuers must register as banks or hold full banking licenses, or at minimum, comply with banking-like oversight.
Key pillars of these laws include:
Full reserve requirements (1:1 backing in liquid assets)
Audited transparency on reserves and redemptions
KYC/AML compliance for users and issuers
Supervision by central banks or financial regulators
In the US, the House Financial Services Committee recently advanced a bill that would make the Fed the ultimate overseer of dollar-backed stablecoins.
In the EU, MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) requires issuers of e-money tokens to be regulated financial institutions.
Japan now allows banks and trust companies to issue stablecoins under strict regulations.
💥 Section 2: Why This Is a Big Deal
Bringing stablecoins into the banking system could change how liquidity flows, how DeFi operates, and how capital moves across borders.
Potential market impacts:
Increased trust = more institutional money entering stablecoins and crypto markets.
DeFi restrictions = protocols may face scrutiny if they allow unverified stablecoin usage.
Flight from algorithmic or offshore stables to regulated, bank-issued stablecoins (e.g., USDC, PYUSD).
On-chain surveillance increases, potentially limiting pseudonymous finance.
Think of it as crypto’s "Too Big To Ignore" moment—where stablecoins become infrastructure, not outlaws.
📉 Section 3: Past Laws That Shaped Crypto Markets
Let’s examine how previous regulations have affected crypto markets—offering clues about what to expect.
🧱 1. China’s Crypto Ban (2017–2021)
Kicked off a massive market crash in 2018.
Pushed mining and trading activity overseas, especially to the US and Southeast Asia.
Resulted in more global decentralization, ironically strengthening Bitcoin’s resilience.
🪙 2. SEC Lawsuits Against XRP & ICO Projects
Ripple’s XRP lawsuit caused delistings and volatility.
Set a precedent for how tokens are treated under securities law.
Resulted in more structured token launches (via SAFEs, Reg D, etc.).
🧮 3. MiCA Regulation in Europe (2023 Onward)
Provided regulatory clarity, prompting institutions to engage more with regulated entities.
Boosted legitimacy of Euro-backed stablecoins like EURS and Circle’s Euro Coin.
Sparked a race among exchanges to gain EU registration (e.g., Binance France, Coinbase Ireland).
Each of these regulatory waves caused temporary volatility, followed by long-term growth—as clarity invited capital.
📊 Section 4: The Possible Scenarios for the Market
Here’s how things might play out as stablecoin laws become mainstream:
Golden Path-Regulated stablecoins coexist with DeFi; innovation meets compliance - Bullish for crypto adoption and capital inflows.
Walled Garden-Only bank-issued stablecoins are allowed; DeFi stifled -Neutral or bearish short-term, bullish long-term.
Backlash-Overregulation pushes stables offshore or into non-compliant zones - Bearish, liquidity fragmentation returns.
🔍 Nerdy Conclusion:
Stablecoins are no longer just tools for traders—they’re becoming the backbone of digital finance. Their formal entrance into banking law marks a turning point that traders must understand.
While regulation has historically caused short-term fear, it often leads to long-term maturity in crypto markets. The stablecoin laws now in motion could unlock the next chapter of institutional adoption, cross-border finance, and perhaps, the integration of crypto into the real-world economy at scale.
💡 Nerdy Thought:
When a technology becomes systemically important, it stops being ignored—it gets integrated. Stablecoins have reached that level.
put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
BTCUSD trade ideas
Bearish reversal off Fibonacci confluence?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 121,983.11
1st Support: 112,086.50
1st Resistance: 128,114.70
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bitcoin’s Incoming Bear Market!🚀 Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: The Final Push Before the Fall?
Bitcoin is currently in the parabolic uptrend phase of its halving cycle, with price action closely following historical patterns. Since the last halving on April 15, 2024, Bitcoin has mined approximately 42,480 blocks, pushing the market closer to the 70,000-block threshold where the trend historically reverses into a deep bear market.
Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s next major bull market peak is expected around 150,000 USD, approximately 70,000 blocks post-halving (projected for August 2025). However, investors must prepare for what follows—a severe bear market fuelled by miner capitulation.
🔥The 70,000-Block Bearish Reversal: Why It Happens Every Cycle
1. The Mining Difficulty Trap & Rising Costs
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block interval.
As BTC price surges in the bull market, more miners join the network, driving competition and difficulty higher.
This raises mining costs and squeezes profit margins, making it harder for smaller miners to stay afloat.
✅ Bull Market (~0-70,000 Blocks Post-Halving)
High BTC prices offset increased difficulty, allowing miners to hold rather than sell.
Low sell pressure from miners keeps Bitcoin in an uptrend.
❌ Bear Market (~70,000 Blocks Post-Halving)
After BTC peaks, prices decline but difficulty remains high.
Mining costs remain constant, while block rewards drop.
Weaker miners can’t afford to mine at a loss and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover operational expenses.
2. The Snowball Effect: How Miner Capitulation Triggers a Crash
Once inefficient miners begin selling, a chain reaction unfolds:
1️⃣ Bitcoin price starts declining after the cycle peak (~12-18 months post-halving).
2️⃣ Miners struggle to remain profitable due to high difficulty and lower block rewards.
3️⃣ Miners begin offloading BTC to cover expenses, increasing supply in the market.
4️⃣ More BTC supply leads to further price drops, triggering panic selling.
5️⃣ Additional miners shut down operations, selling off reserves, further flooding the market.
6️⃣ Capitulation accelerates, causing a cascading effect similar to leveraged liquidations seen in past bear markets.
🔄 This cycle repeats until enough miners exit, difficulty adjusts downward, and BTC stabilizes.
3. Historical Proof: How Miner Capitulation Has Marked Every Bear Market
Each Bitcoin bear market aligns with major miner capitulation events. Here’s how past cycles have played out:
📌 2012 Halving: Bull top in late 2013, miner capitulation in 2014, BTC fell -80%.
📌 2016 Halving: Bull top in late 2017, miner capitulation in 2018, BTC fell -84%.
📌 2020 Halving: Bull top in late 2021, miner capitulation in 2022, BTC fell -78%.
📌 2024 Halving: Expected bull top in late 2025, miner capitulation likely in 2026?, BTC decline TBD but estimated to be around -60%.
🔹 In all cases, BTC topped ~70,000 blocks after the halving, followed by a deep drawdown driven by miner capitulation.
🔹 The selling pressure from miners perfectly aligns with the start of major market crashes.
4. The Accumulation Phase: What Follows the Crash?
After miners capitulate and difficulty adjusts downward, Bitcoin enters a sideways accumulation phase (~140,000-210,000 blocks post-halving).
Weaker miners have already exited, reducing sell pressure.
Surviving miners adjust to lower rewards and stop mass selling BTC.
Smart money (whales & institutions) begin accumulating at undervalued prices.
The MVRV ratio drops below 1, signalling a market bottom.
Bitcoin stabilizes, setting the stage for the next bull cycle.
This predictable recovery cycle lays the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next exponential rally into the next halving period.
The Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction for 2025-2026
✅ Bitcoin is currently on track to peak near ~$150,000 around 70,000 blocks post-halving (August 2025).
✅ Following this, BTC is expected to enter its bear market, with prices potentially falling to ~$60,000 (by December 2026).
✅ The primary catalyst for this crash will be miner capitulation, just as it has been in every prior cycle.
Final Thoughts
If history repeats, the Bitcoin market is set to follow a sharp parabolic rise to ~$150,000 before undergoing a 70,000-block miner-driven selloff into a multi-month bear market. Investors should be aware of this pattern and plan accordingly.
Sources & Data Validation
The insights presented in this article are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles, on-chain analytics, and mining difficulty trends from various sources, including:
Blockchain Data (Glassnode, CoinMetrics)
Historical BTC Halving Data (Bitcoin Whitepaper, Blockchain Explorers)
Market Analysis Reports (Messari, Arcane Research)
Macroeconomic Influences (Federal Reserve Reports, Global Liquidity Cycles)
Disclaimer: Not an Investment Recommendation
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Are we on Super Bullish Express Highway ? Elliott Waves RoadmapHello friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts
Today we're attempting to analyze Bitcoin's chart, specifically the BTCUSD chart, from an Elliott Wave perspective. Looking at the monthly timeframe chart, which spans the entire lifetime of Bitcoin's data since 2011, we can see the overall structure. According to Elliott Wave theory, it appears that a large Super Cycle degree Wave (I) has completed, followed by a correction in the form of Super Cycle degree Wave (II), marked in blue.
Now, friends, it's possible that we're unfolding Super Cycle degree Wave (III), which should have five sub-divisions - in red I, II, III, IV, & V. We can see that we've completed red I & II, and red III has just started. If the low we marked in red II doesn't get breached on the lower side, it can be considered our invalidation level.
Next, within red III, we should see five primary degree sub-divisions in black - ((1)), ((2)), ((3)), ((4)) & ((5)). We can see that we've completed black ((1)) & ((2)) and black ((3)) has just started. Within black ((3)), we should see five intermediate degree sub-divisions in blue - (1) to (5). Blue (1) has just started, and within blue one, we've already seen red 1 & 2 completed, and red 3 is in progress.
So, we're currently in a super bullish scenario, a third of a third of a third. Yes, the chart looks extremely bullish. We won't commit to any targets here as this is for educational purposes only. The analysis suggests potential targets could be very high, above $150,000 or $200,000, if the invalidation level of $98,240 isn't breached. But again, friends, this video is shared for educational purposes only.
Many people think that the market doesn't move according to Elliott Waves. But friends, here we've tried to analyze from the monthly time frame to the overly time frame. We've definitely aligned the multi-time frame and also aligned it with the principal rules of Elliott Waves, without violating any of its rules.
I agree that the Elliott Wave theory can be a bit difficult, and for those who don't practice it deeply, it can be challenging. But yes, the market moves according to this methodology, following this pattern. This is a significant achievement.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
BITCOIN turning the Bull Flag into Support??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading sideways, almost flat, since the July 03 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Perhaps the strongest development of the week though is the fact that this consolidation has been taking place at the top (Lower Highs) of what we previously identified as a Bull Flag pattern.
Together with the 1D MA50, this Lower Highs trend-line forms a formidable Support, which as long as it holds, can technically fulfil the technical expectations out of this pattern and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168500.
Is this one step closer to our 'fair valued' $150k Target for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Bitcoin pushes higher, but its not the only game in townBitcoin is up around 26% this year. A strong gain. But it’s not alone. The higher Bitcoin rises, the less the gains become in percentage terms. It's now in a different league, so a $1,000 or $10,000 move its necessarily what it used to be.
Meanwhile, Gold, silver and copper have also pushed higher in 2025. The Nasdaq 100 is up too. All signs point to a weakening US dollar.
When risk assets and commodities rally together, it's a signal. Investors are shifting. Not out of fear, but to diversify away from the dollar. This is a theme that’s building strength.
Gold is up nearly over 25% YTD. Silver even more. Copper, the industrial bellwether, has joined the rally. These aren’t just trades. They’re strategic moves. A hedge against dollar debasement, inflation, and long-term fiscal risks in the US.
The Nasdaq’s rise tells a similar story. Tech stocks benefit when yields fall and the dollar softens. Big tech also has global revenue exposure. A weaker dollar inflates their earnings in foreign currencies.
What ties all this together? Loss of confidence in the dollar as the sole reserve hedge. Too much debt, too much printing. Central banks know it. They’ve been buying gold for years. Now, retail and institutional investors are catching on.
Bitcoin, the digital alternative to gold, gets the headlines. But it’s part of a broader move. The USD remains the world’s most important currency. That’s not changing tomorrow. But its dominance is being questioned in ways we haven’t seen in decades.
This isn’t just a crypto rally. It’s a dollar diversification play. And it’s gaining momentum.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Bitcoin on the Brink: Short-Term Surge Toward $116K Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $96,390, approaching the $116,000 mark. Here's a short-term analysis using Cycle Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Gann Analysis to inform potential trading strategies.
________________________________________
📈 Cycle Analysis: Mid-2025 Surge
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin tends to reach its peak between 518 and 546 days after a halving event. Given the most recent halving in April 2024, analysts anticipate a potential price peak around mid-2025, approximately 1.5 years post-halving. Notably, Bitcoin is currently about 35 days ahead of its typical cycle, indicating a possible acceleration in price growth.
________________________________________
📊 Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 3 in Progress
Elliott Wave Theory suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of its bullish cycle, which is typically the most powerful and extended wave. Recent analyses indicate that the third wave is unfolding, with potential targets ranging from $114,500 to $120,500. A conservative estimate places the peak of this wave between $127,000 and $150,000
________________________________________
📐 Gann Analysis: Price-Time Equilibrium
Gann Analysis utilizes geometric angles to predict price movements. The "2×1 Fan" line, representing a 45-degree angle, is considered a fair value line. Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked near this line during parabolic run-ups. Currently, Bitcoin's price is approaching this level, suggesting a potential peak.
________________________________________
🧭 Short-Term Trade Setup
✅ Entry Points:
• Accumulation Zone: $85,000 to $90,000
• Current Price: $96,390
🎯 Target Levels:
• Short-Term Peak: $116,000 to $135,000
• Medium-Term Peak: $150,000
⚠️ Risk Management:
• Potential Correction: After reaching the peak, anticipate a significant pullback, possibly 30–50%.
• Exit Strategy: Consider taking profits as Bitcoin approaches upper resistance zones.
________________________________________
🧾 Conclusion
Bitcoin is in the final stages of its current bullish cycle, with projections indicating a potential peak between $150,000 and $278,000. However, caution is warranted as market corrections are typical following such surges. Investors should consider taking profits as Bitcoin approaches upper resistance levels and prepare for potential pullbacks.
BTC - Next ATH Upside Price Targets After outlining the last low for BTC (which can be found here):
Now BTC is skyrocketing to new all time highs. Based on predictive Fibonacci modeling and also our price target of our macro megaphone pattern we can estimate where BTC's next top might be.
Our first target is just slightly above $120k. This would be our extension target of our most recent LFT trend.
If we take a look back at our last mid-macro trend it would give us an extension target slightly below $130k.
Our final target would be $135-136k which would be from our last high to our last low of our mid-macro trend. This is also in alignment with the full measured move of our megaphone pattern.
As more candle structure form around these levels we will update this prediction with even more precise targets. Happy All Time High everyone!
Bitcoin in dangerzoneAgainst all influencers online let me warn you that the current Bitcoin position is one to be very aware of. We re sitting above a multi year long strong trendline, the volume is low to moderate so no blow off top coming. DO NOT BUY or chase here, you can lose it all.
My next targets are below 90k. XRP 1.5usd still valid.
Wyckoff Structure Targets 92K–94K Retest Before Continuation!A rare and highly instructive market structure is currently unfolding, presenting a textbook case of Wyckoff pattern integration across multiple timeframes.
Over the past weeks, I’ve been tracking a series of smaller Wyckoff accumulation and distribution patterns nested within a larger overarching Wyckoff structure. Each of these smaller formations has now successfully completed its expected move — validating the precision of supply/demand mechanics and the theory’s predictive strength.
With these mini-cycles resolved, the spotlight now shifts to the final, dominant Wyckoff structure — a larger accumulation phase that encompasses the full breadth of recent market activity. According to the logic of Phase C transitioning into Phase D, price appears poised to revisit the key retest zone between 92,000 and 94,000, a critical area of prior resistance turned demand.
📉 Current Market Behavior:
📐 Multiple minor Wyckoff patterns (accumulations/distributions) have played out as expected, both upward and downward — lending high credibility to the current macro setup.
🧩 All formations are nested within a major accumulation structure, now in the final phase of testing support.
🔁 The expected move is a pullback toward the 92K–94K zone, before the markup phase resumes with higher conviction.
📊 Wyckoff Confidence Factors:
✅ All Phase C spring and upthrust actions respected
✅ Volume behavior aligns with Wyckoff principles (climactic action → absorption → trend continuation)
✅ Clean reaccumulation signs within current structure
✅ Institutional footprint visible through shakeouts and well-defined support/resistance rotations
💬 Observation / Call to Action:
This setup is a rare opportunity to witness multi-layered Wyckoff theory in motion, offering not only a high-probability trading setup but also an educational blueprint. I invite fellow traders and Wyckoff analysts to share their interpretations or challenge the current thesis.
➡️ Do you see the same structural roadmap?
Let’s discuss in the comments.
BTCUSD (Bitcoin): Forex Technical AnalysisDate: 11 July 2025
Momentum: Up
First Scenario : long positions above 115,706.14 with targets at 117,269.52, 117,904.51 and 118,513.05
Second Scenario : short positions below 115,706.14 with targets at 114,544.35, 113,774.89 and 113,053.39
Comment: RSI - Bullish.
Supports and resistances :
118,513.05 **
117,904.51 *
117,269.52
116,747.25 - Last price
114,544.35
113,774.89 *
113,053.39 **
BTC: Macro Structure [Weekly Timeframe]Sharing my current view on the macro price structure of Bitcoin, outlining both main and alternative scenarios based on trend wave analysis.
Macro Trend Overview and Main scenario
The uptrend from the Nov ’22 bottom shows a classic 5-wave impulsive structure, closely aligning with ideal Fibonacci proportions:
Wave 3 peaked within the 1.382–1.618% zone
Wave 4 found support in the 1.236–1.000% area
Wave 5 topped near the 2.000% / 0.618% projection (measured from the Nov’18 bottom to Nov’21 top, projected from the Nov’22 low)
Wave (2) was relatively short in time and depth, but technically acceptable as complete. Given the broader technical structure, macro fundamentals, policy tailwinds, and social sentiment - I consider wave (2) to be finished.
The rally from April’25 low to May’25 high looks impulsive, followed by a clean three-wave pullback into the June’25 low - a structure consistent with the start of a new uptrend, within a larger degree wave (3).
If this is the case, given the fractal nature of the markets, price should Fibonacci proportions similar to the Nov’22 - Mar’24 cycle.
For this bullish count to remain valid, BTC must break and hold above the 126–134K resistance zone. This would open the door to next resistance zone be tested nex: 170–190K and 200–220/250K, where I’d expect a major top to begin forming, possibly, the start of a multi-year higher low formation.
Alternative Scenario
If price fails to break above 126–134K and starts showing reversal patterns, then the yellow count remains valid suggesting the entire trend from Nov’22 has peaked, and BTC could be entering a deep, prolonged correction (as per the yellow count).
In Summary
As long as weekly closes stay above 111.9K, my base case favors continued upside into 125–135K, where the next major decision zone lies:
• Either a short consolidation before breakout
• Or formation of a macro top
For more detailed levels and daily trend structure (including ETH, SOL, XRP, and HYPE), check out my recent video idea and Minds post.
Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading decisions!
If you found this idea helpful, I’d really appreciate a boost — and would be glad to have you as a subscriber!
Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading decisions!
* I'm keeping the same structure read from my public Mar'24 analysis:
Let your winners run🧠 Fear | Hope | Growth – When Trading Meets Emotion
The message on the chart isn't just poetic — it's real psychology.
🔹 Fear wants to cut your winners short.
It sneaks in after a small move in your favor.
"What if it reverses? I better lock this in."
And just like that, a great trade turns into a missed opportunity.
🔹 Hope drags you into holding too long.
It dreams: "Maybe it doubles... maybe this time it'll be massive."
But it's not guided by data — it's driven by fantasy.
🔹 Discipline is what sits in the middle.
Quiet. Neutral.
It doesn’t scream or seduce — it just follows the plan.
And that’s where Growth lives — not just on the PnL, but in your psychology.
When Bitcoin pushes toward new ATHs, these emotions get amplified.
The real question becomes: Can you manage yourself, not just your trade?
📌 A Real Example from My Desk
In my earlier BTCUSD idea — “Another Edge – Decision Time” (shared above) —
I sent that setup to one of my managed clients.
He entered long exactly at the edge of the channel — a clean, strategic buy.
Price moved beautifully in our favor…
But he manually closed the trade at 106,600 — long before the move matured.
Why?
Because fear of giving back profit overwhelmed the original plan.
The chart was right. The timing was right.
But the exit was emotional, not tactical.
✅ The trade made money.
❌ But the lesson is clear: a profitable trade doesn’t always mean a disciplined one.
🎯 Final Takeaway:
“Fear kills your winners. Hope kills your timing. Discipline grows your equity and your character.”
🗣 What would you have done in that position?
Held longer? Closed at resistance? Let it run toward ATH?
Let’s talk psychology — drop your thoughts 👇
#MJTrading
#TradingPsychology #BTCUSD #FearHopeDiscipline #LetYourWinnersRun #PriceAction #BTCATH #ForexMindset #CryptoStrategy
BTC/USD H4 Downfall ⚠️ Disrupted Market Perspective
🟩 False Resistance Zone
The marked resistance area (~109,000) has been breached multiple times with high volatility, suggesting weak resistance strength. Instead of rejecting price, this zone acts more like a liquidity trap — luring in sellers before price spikes higher. Expect fake-outs or bullish traps near this area.
🟨 Questionable Bearish Pattern
The projected zig-zag drop is speculative. The current market structure shows higher lows forming, hinting at potential accumulation rather than breakdown. If price consolidates above 108,000, this setup might flip bullish instead of heading to the 106,000 target.
🟥 Support Area Disruption
The labeled support zone around 106,000 may not hold if broken, but it has been respected multiple times in the past. If bulls defend it again, we might see a sharp rebound rather than a continuation downward. Therefore, the “Target” area could instead become a springboard for upward reversal.
BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD Analysis – Riding the Mind Curve & Bullish Setup Target🔎 Technical Narrative & Market Structure Analysis
Bitcoin is currently respecting a textbook parabolic support structure represented by the Black Mind Curve—a dynamic visual model reflecting the psychology of crowd behavior transitioning from uncertainty to confidence. This curved structure often precedes strong bullish continuation patterns, especially when paired with evidence of smart money involvement.
The current price action shows sequential higher lows, each of which is supported directly by the Mind Curve. These bounces confirm demand stepping in consistently at higher levels, a strong sign of controlled accumulation and momentum building.
🧠 Key Chart Components Explained
✅ 1. Mind Curve (Dynamic Support)
A custom-drawn parabolic curve reflects the ongoing upward force from buyers.
Bitcoin has tested and bounced from this curve multiple times, showing it is respected by market participants.
As price hugs the curve more tightly, the compression could lead to a volatility breakout.
✅ 2. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
A significant market structure break occurred as price took out a previous swing high.
This BOS confirms a shift in market sentiment from ranging/sideways to uptrend formation.
The BOS now acts as a reference point for bullish momentum and could serve as support on a potential retest.
✅ 3. QFL Zone (Quantity following line )
Located just below the BOS, this zone marks the last area where aggressive buyers stepped in before the breakout.
These levels are often defended on a retest and are used by institutional traders to re-enter positions.
✅ 4. Evidence Candle
This sharp bullish impulse candle is what we call an "evidence candle"—it pierces minor resistances with strength and volume.
It represents institutional-level interest and confirms smart money accumulation.
Such candles typically precede either continuation or minor pullback for re-accumulation.
✅ 5. Reversal Zone (Target Zone)
This zone lies ahead at approximately 112,500 to 113,000, a confluence of previous supply, key psychological level, and potential liquidity pool.
It's the next logical area where price may pause, react, or break through if momentum sustains.
⚔️ Scenarios to Watch
🟩 Bullish Scenario:
Price continues riding the curve support upward.
Breaks and closes above the Reversal Zone, ideally with volume and continuation candle.
Potential upside extension toward 114,000–115,000.
🟨 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario:
Price consolidates just below the Reversal Zone.
May form a flag/pennant or triangle structure.
Bullish continuation likely if the curve holds beneath.
🟥 Bearish/Invalidation Scenario:
Price breaks below the Mind Curve and BOS, closing below with momentum.
This would signal a potential breakdown of the bullish structure.
Invalidation zone likely sits below 110,000, and a breakdown could open room to revisit the 108,500–109,000 area.
📌 Confluence Factors Supporting the Bullish Bias:
Respect of Mind Curve over time = hidden institutional support
Presence of BOS and QFL = structure and order block confluence
Evidence candle = high-volume trigger point
Reversal Zone = logical magnet for price, supported by liquidity and previous reactions
📈 Summary & Trading Thesis
Bitcoin is currently in a bullish microstructure within a larger range. The parabola-style Mind Curve suggests that this structure is maturing toward an inflection point. The break above BOS, evidence of strength, and alignment with demand zones all support a move toward the 112,500–113,000 Reversal Zone. If momentum sustains, this could become the start of a broader bullish leg.
📢 Final Thought:
While the setup is bullish, discipline and patience are key. Watching how price behaves around the Reversal Zone will be critical. A clean breakout or solid rejection will provide the next high-probability signal.
BTCUSD📈 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Market Update
Current Price: $105,000.00
Outlook: Strongly Bullish
Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,000 and showing continued bullish momentum. Price action indicates strong demand at current levels, with technical structure suggesting potential for an explosive move upward.
Key Insight:
Buy pressure remains dominant, with no immediate signs of reversal. BTC is holding above key support zones and appears poised for a continuation rally.
📊 Trade Idea:
Bias: Long (Buy)
Entry Zone: Market Price (~$105,000)
Short-Term Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $110,000
🎯 Target 2: $120,000
🎯 Target 3: $130,000
Note: Monitor for consolidation above $105,000 as a base for further upside. Risk management remains essential—adjust stop-loss levels as per your strategy.
Bitcoin - Liquidity grab at $111.000?This 4-hour BTCUSD chart illustrates a potential short-term bullish continuation scenario followed by a deeper retracement, highlighting key liquidity levels and an important Fair Value Gap (FVG) support zone.
Liquidity sweep
At the top of the current price action, just above the $110,612.16 level, there is a clear area of resting liquidity. This zone has likely accumulated a significant number of stop-loss orders from traders who are shorting the market or who went long earlier and are protecting profits below previous highs. The market tends to seek liquidity to fill institutional orders, making this zone a high-probability target for a sweep. As a result, price is likely to take out these resting stop orders in a quick upward move, often referred to as a "liquidity grab" or "stop hunt", before potentially reversing or consolidating.
Bullish 4H FVG
Following this liquidity sweep, the chart suggests a retracement into a bullish 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located around the $106,600 to $107,400 region. This imbalance zone was formed during an impulsive move up, leaving behind a gap between the wicks of consecutive candles. Such gaps represent areas where demand previously overwhelmed supply, and they often act as strong support on a retest. If price revisits this zone, it is expected to offer support and could serve as a base for another upward push, assuming bullish momentum remains intact.
Downside risk
However, if the bullish FVG fails to hold as support and price breaks down through this imbalance zone, it would signal a weakening of bullish structure. In that case, the breakdown would likely lead to a deeper correction or even a trend reversal, with price seeking lower levels of support further down the chart. This would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and suggest that sellers are gaining control, possibly triggering further liquidations and more aggressive selling pressure.
Conclusion
Overall, the chart is currently leaning bullish, anticipating a liquidity sweep to the upside followed by a potential pullback into the FVG. The reaction at the FVG will be critical in determining whether the market can continue higher or if it shifts into a deeper bearish correction.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BTCUSD h4 down surelybtcusd down idia Resistance Zone: Around 110,000–111,000
Price Action Expectation:
→ Short-term push to 110,629
→ Then rejection toward 105,000, and potentially all the way down to 96,794 or even 94,091
Bearish bias after resistance is hit
⚡ Disruption Analysis (Contrarian View)
✅ 1. Resistance Flip Possibility
What if the 110,000 resistance breaks cleanly with strong volume?
Invalidates the bearish rejection arrow
Could trigger FOMO buying → Acceleration toward 112,500+
Bullish scenario: formation of a bull flag above resistance = continuation setup
✅ 2. Bear Trap Theory at 105,000 Zone
That “target” zone near 105k could be a fake breakdown zone
Market might dip there briefly, lure shorts, then reverse violently
This creates liquidity for a rapid long squeeze breakout
✅ 3. Market Structure Still Bullish on HTF
Higher lows from June 24 to July 6
Clean breakout at 105,152
Still respecting ascending structure — which is not bearish yet
🚨 Disruption Summary Chart Moves
🔼 Alternate Path 1 (Bullish Disruption):
Price consolidates under resistance → breaks above 110,629 → targets 112,500–115,000
🔄 Alternate Path 2 (Fake Breakdown Disruption):
Drops to 105,000, triggers sell-off → sharp reversal → back above 108,637
🔽 Original Path (Rejection-Based Bearish):
Still possible — but not the only high-probability path anymore
BTCUSD: Bearish Continuation
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the BTCUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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