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BTCUSD trade ideas

BTC at Critical Resistance… Drop Incoming!Hi traders! Currently analyzing BTCUSD on the 1H timeframe. Price is reacting to the upper boundary of a descending channel, where sellers are showing strong pressure. This area has previously acted as a significant resistance, pushing price lower multiple times. I'm now selling from 108,075.19, expecting a bearish move towards my target at the bottom of the channel. Take Profit: 104,493.63 Stop Loss: 111,891.49 RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence near the resistance area, adding confluence to this setup. Price may have performed a liquidity grab above the trendline before rejecting the area, which aligns with the current market structure. I'm actively managing this trade, keeping an eye on how price behaves around this key level. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by FXOnTop
BITCOIN Will Fall! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for BITCOIN. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 108,838.74. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 101,845.14 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:BTCUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
Bitcoin – The 270/100 CycleBitcoin isn’t just trading. It’s pulsing — in cycles that reward those who understand timing as much as price. Over the last two years, BTC has shown a repeating pattern with surgical precision: Range Phase: Each macro consolidation lasts ~220 to 270 days, where price builds structure, absorbs supply, and prepares for its next expansion. This is the quiet phase — the zone where conviction is tested, and weak hands exit. Impulse Phase: What follows is a ~100-day vertical leg, where BTC surges between +50% to +80%, targeting the next macro resistance. We’ve seen this repeatedly: Accumulate → Expand → Re-accumulate → Expand.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Katri01
BTC Bulls Target $111,653, Is This the Next Explosive BreakoutThe BTCUSDT 4-hour chart is showing a clearly bullish structure. After consolidating below the $108,664–$107,800 resistance for several weeks, Bitcoin finally broke above this area with a strong impulsive move, confirming the zone as a new support. This breakout coincides with improving market sentiment, especially after Metaplanet’s $108 million purchase of BTC and a surge in ETF inflows, which have been helping Bitcoin reclaim levels above $109,000. The price is currently consolidating just above the breakout area, indicating that buyers are defending this zone aggressively. Resistance Level 1, around $110,254, is the first significant barrier and aligns with the area that rejected price several times in late May. If this level is broken, the next target sits at Resistance Level 2 near $111,653, which was the major swing high established in early May. Holding above the current support is critical, as a decisive 4-hour close below $107,440 would invalidate this bullish scenario and likely trigger a deeper retracement. The recent price behavior suggests a potential ascending triangle breakout retest, a classic continuation pattern where buyers step in on each dip. Momentum remains strong, and the risk/reward profile favors long setups as long as the higher-low structure is preserved. Trade Setup (Bullish Idea) Entry Zone: $108,700–$109,000 (on a confirmed retest of support) Stop Loss: $107,440 (beneath the invalidation zone) Take Profit Targets o TP1: $110,254 o TP2: $111,653 The setup offers an estimated 2.4–2.7 risk/reward ratio, depending on precise entry and execution. As always, it’s recommended to wait for confirmation candles or wicks rejecting the support zone before entering. If the breakout holds and volume expands on the push through TP1, Bitcoin could quickly revisit the $112,000 area in line with broader market optimism and institutional buying. Just be aware of the invalidation level, as any breakdown below $107,440 could trigger a fast move back to prior range lows.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by SupertradeOfficial
Old but accessible price targetIt was around the end of 2024 that I had an interesting price target for BTC, but the entry points only looked attractive in the green box area. This green box was obtained solely based on my personal strategy, and the final and near target was obtained based on the trend lines and channel, from which I personally draw appropriate conclusions with price targets! The excellent return from BTC, although time-consuming, was very attractive for spot traders! Good luck! MJ.REZAEI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by MJ2REZAEI
BTC/USDT on FIB Retracement LevelsThe price is currently retracing after a recent upward move and is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci level (≈107,805). The entry zone is defined around 107,546, marked in yellow, suggesting a possible support area where buyers may step in. The stop loss is placed slightly below at 105,267, around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, to manage risk if the market breaks this zone. The take-profit (TP1) target is set near 109,867, close to the previous high and aligning with the 0.236 Fib level (≈109,370). 📉 Indicators & Patterns EMAs are converging, with price slightly under them, showing possible weakness but not a confirmed downtrend yet. RSI (Relative Strength Index) at the bottom is around 45, signaling neutral momentum—neither overbought nor oversold. A bullish divergence was marked earlier on RSI, which supported the previous price rise. 📈 Trading Plan Summary Entry: 107,546 Stop Loss: 105,267 TP1: 109,867 Bias: Watching for a bullish reversal from the yellow support zone. If price fails to hold above 106,296, it may head toward 105,102 and the 1.618 Fib extension (101,650). This setup suggests a high-risk, reward potential if price bounces in the support zone, but caution is advised as RSI and EMAs currently show mixed signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Musarrat_karamat
1
Btc will test 112 next! With some simple technical analysis I wouldn’t be confident calling in bottom but at this time I’m hedging with a short to take small profits and transfer it into spot for more BTC!! There is a FVG on a daily chart and for now on1H we can see certain resistance. RSI is relatively strong heading to neutral making me believe we may call this bottom for now. Smart money (institutional) has eaten BTC supply and just recently 7 dormant wallets are moving money. Something big may be brewing. Be careful out there.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SpeFab
2
BTC/USD – Executed Short on Bearish Retest of Resistance PricePrice: 107,950 Position: SHORT Strategy: Retest Sell into Bearish Continuation Timeframe: 30m Status: Trade Active 📊 Analysis Summary: BTC/USD retested the 107,950–108,100 resistance zone, aligning with the 14 EMA on a clear downtrend. Bearish rejection candles confirmed seller dominance, and I executed a short entry near the top of the retest. 🔽 Plan Ahead: Towards:105,400 Holding this short unless price breaks back above EMA with bullish strength. 💬 "Sell the bounce. Ride the breakdown. Risk managed, conviction high." What’s your view? Will BTC hold below 108K or are bulls about to fight back? #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortTrade #BearishTrend #EMA #TradingStrategy #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #RiskReward #SwingTrade
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Indonesia1945
1
BTC with potential for $115,000/$120,000🔍 Market structure (Price Action) 📈 Trend: The market previously formed higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) – a classic uptrend. Then there was a correction and a lower high (LH) and lower low (LL) appeared – a potential change in the trend to a downtrend. The last two lows are again HL (Higher Lows) – suggesting an attempt to return to the uptrend. 🔄 Key support and resistance levels ✅ Resistance (green horizontal lines): 117.469 – local resistance and potential breakout target from the current range. 115.802 – confirmed resistance from previous consolidations. 111.814 – strong local resistance (LH – Lower High formed there). 109.341 – current resistance, the price is currently testing it. 🛑 Support (red horizontal lines): 105.370 – local support, price reacted at this level in recent days. 102.650 – important support, level of previous HL. 100.095 – consolidation level before breaking out upwards. 98.213 – last LL – very important level in the context of defending the structure. 🧭 Structure of peaks and troughs HH: Higher High – confirmed the previous uptrend. LH: Lower High – first warning about changing the structure to down. LL: Lower Low – confirmed a potential change to downside. HL (x2): two more higher lows – suggest a possible return to growth. 📊 Stochastic RSI (at the bottom of the chart) The oscillator is currently in the overbought zone (>80), approaching a downward crossover. It suggests a possible short-term halt in growth or correction. But in strong trends it may "stick" to the upper range. 📌 Potential scenarios: 🟢 Bullish: If the price breaks above 109.341, it may test 111.814 and then 115.802. Continuation of the HL → HH formation will confirm a trend reversal and further growth. 🔴 Bearish: If the price does not stay above 109k and breaks below 105.370, there is a risk of a test of 102.650 and lower. A break of 100.095 and especially 98.213 will negate the growth structure. 🧠 Conclusions: The market is at a key decision point - HL formation vs. resistance zone. Buyers' strength will be confirmed only after breaking 111-112k. Stochastic RSI warns of potential pullback or consolidation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptodailyuk
Bitcoin long $600k- long Bitcoin targeting $10-12T market cap by 2028 - acceleration of companies accumulating Bitcoin + continuation of Saylor & Strategy's ongoing TWAP - notable uptick in global concerns w/ having access to non-sovereign store of wealth not affected by government intervention + over-reliance on USD + US Debt - Gold's current market cap: $23T. Bitcoin is incredibly more useful as a SOV that's transferable easily across nation states & easier to transact with between parties anywhere globally - currently holding $100k support after selling off to ~$75k during tariff fears + austerity with DOGE + macro higher low from last year and held support from November election - including improved crypto regulatory environment otw soon + general sentiment around crypto a lot more positive
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by blknoiz
18
BTCUSD - Weekly Bullish Momentum Targeting $115K, Eyeing $137KI'm currently observing a strong bullish structure on the weekly timeframe for Bitcoin, trading at $107,305 at the time of writing. The current weekly candle shows aggressive buying pressure, and if this momentum sustains through the close, we could see a continuation toward the $115,200 level. There’s visible liquidity and unfilled price action around $109,500, which I expect to be taken out as price moves upward. Once cleared, Bitcoin could either: 1. Continue straight to \$115K+, or 2. Briefly retrace before resuming the uptrend. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, BTC previously pulled back to the 38.2% level ~$76,000 before launching into the current leg up, a classic continuation signal within an uptrend. Given the current price action and historical behavior, I’m targeting the following levels: Short-term target: $115,200 Long-term target (multi-month): $137,200-$137,300 Stop loss and entry would depend on the timeframe of execution, but from a weekly structure, invalidation would occur if BTC breaks below the last major higher low around $98,000-$96,000. Let’s see how this weekly candle closes. If the momentum holds, the next leg could already be unfolding.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by fcollazo
2
Navigating BTC the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 PeakBitcoin at a Crossroads: Navigating the Volatile Path to a Potential $117,000 Peak Introduction: A Tale of Two Forces The world of Bitcoin is once again a theater of high drama. After a breathtaking surge that brought the digital asset tantalizingly close to its all-time high, the market now stands at a pivotal crossroads, caught in a tense tug-of-war between powerful bullish undercurrents and formidable macroeconomic headwinds. On one side, a confluence of unprecedented institutional adoption, potent on-chain signals, and a volatile derivatives market suggests an imminent price explosion. Analysts and investors whisper of a short-term upper bound of $117,000, with some seeing a potential tap of $116,000 as early as July amid a ‘perfect storm’ of macro catalysts. A move to this level would represent a significant 6.45% jump from Bitcoin’s recent price, a leap that seems entirely within reach when viewed through the lens of the asset's internal momentum. Yet, on the other side stands the unyielding wall of global economic reality. Bitcoin’s recent attempt to decisively conquer the $110,000 level was swiftly reversed as strong U.S. jobs data and other factors tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut. This macroeconomic reality has cast a long shadow over risk assets, including Bitcoin, creating significant resistance at the previous all-time high of around $112,000. Analysts point to an absence of new, retail-driven buyers and the kind of "FOMO-driven greed" that characterized previous bull runs as a key factor pinning the price down. This creates a fascinating and high-stakes dichotomy. The very structure of the Bitcoin market has undergone a "paradigm shift," with institutional exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providing a steady, relentless stream of demand. At the same time, the asset remains tethered to the decisions of central bankers and the health of the global economy. This article will delve into the intricate layers of this conflict, exploring the powerful bull case built on on-chain data and market structure, the sobering macroeconomic headwinds, the psychological barrier of the all-time high, and the long-term predictions that see Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000. As the market braces for pivotal events like the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the question on every investor's mind is which of these two powerful forces will ultimately dictate Bitcoin's next monumental move. The Bull Case: A Cauldron of On-Chain and Derivatives Strength Bitcoin’s impressive rally was not a random speculative whim; it was underpinned by a bedrock of strong on-chain and technical signals that paint a compelling picture of underlying market health and explosive potential. These indicators, which provide a transparent view into the blockchain’s activity, suggest that the current price action is just the beginning. On-Chain Analysis: The Blockchain's Transparent Ledger On-chain analysis is the practice of examining the public and immutable data on a blockchain to understand the behavior of network participants. Unlike traditional financial markets, where investor actions are opaque, Bitcoin’s ledger allows for a granular assessment of transaction volumes, wallet balances, and investor profitability, offering a data-driven glimpse into market sentiment. Two of the most powerful on-chain metrics in this context are the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The MVRV ratio is a fundamental valuation tool that compares Bitcoin's total market capitalization to its "realized capitalization." While market cap is the current price multiplied by all coins in circulation, realized cap values each coin at the price it was last moved on-chain. Essentially, MVRV compares the current market price to the average cost basis of all investors. A high MVRV ratio suggests the market is overheated, while a ratio below 1.0 signifies that the average investor is underwater, a condition often seen at market bottoms. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) offers a more immediate look at market behavior by analyzing the profitability of transactions occurring on the network. It is calculated by dividing the sale price of a Bitcoin by the price it was last acquired. • When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that, on average, coins being sold are in profit. • When SOPR is less than 1, it means coins are being sold at a loss. • A SOPR value of 1 acts as a critical psychological level. In bull markets, the market often "bounces" off this line, as investors are reluctant to sell at a loss, creating strong support. The Derivatives Market: Funding Rates and the Looming Short Squeeze Beyond the blockchain itself, the cryptocurrency derivatives market provides another layer of bullish sentiment. This market is dominated by perpetual futures contracts, which use a funding rate mechanism to stay tethered to the spot price. • Positive Funding Rate: When the futures price is higher than the spot price, longs pay shorts, indicating dominant bullish sentiment. • Negative Funding Rate: When the spot price is higher than the futures price, shorts pay longs, indicating dominant bearish sentiment. Paradoxically, a deeply negative funding rate can be an extremely bullish contrarian indicator. A crucial historical precedent exists: Bitcoin price rallied 80% the last time BTC funding rates flipped red. When funding rates are negative, it means a large number of traders are shorting the market. If the price begins to rise against them, these short sellers must buy back Bitcoin to close their positions and limit their losses. This forced buying can trigger a "short squeeze." A large cluster of potential short liquidations has been identified near the $111,320 level, with an estimated $520.31 million in leveraged positions at risk. If the price can push through this zone, it could trigger a cascade of liquidations, providing the fuel to accelerate Bitcoin’s next leg higher into price discovery. This mechanism represents one of the most powerful potential catalysts for a rapid move toward the $116K-$117K target. The Macroeconomic Maelstrom: A "Perfect Storm" of Headwinds While Bitcoin’s internal metrics flash green, its path is being obstructed by a formidable storm of macroeconomic factors. In today's interconnected financial world, no asset is immune to the policies of central banks. The recent reversal from the push beyond $110,000 is a stark reminder of this reality, as markets began to discount the odds of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates. The Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Jitters For the past several years, the price of Bitcoin has been highly correlated with monetary policy. A policy of low interest rates generally creates a favorable environment for assets like Bitcoin by lowering the opportunity cost of holding them compared to bonds or savings accounts. Conversely, a period of monetary tightening—characterized by higher interest rates—has a negative effect on Bitcoin's price. The market's sensitivity to this was on full display when strong U.S. economic data reinforced the case for keeping rates "higher for longer" to contain inflation. This immediately took the wind out of Bitcoin’s sails and halted the rally. An unexpected rate cut, however, could send Bitcoin back toward its all-time high of $112,000. All Eyes on Jackson Hole This brings into focus the immense importance of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. This annual conference is a crucial event where central bankers from around the globe discuss pressing economic issues and signal future policy directions. Speeches from key figures, particularly the Federal Reserve Chair, are scrutinized by global markets for clues about the future of monetary policy. The anticipation surrounding the event highlights its high stakes for risk assets. Market participants will be listening for any hint of a dovish pivot (a signal that rate cuts are back on the table) or a hawkish stance (a reinforcement of the "higher for longer" narrative). • A dovish signal could be the catalyst that reignites Bitcoin's rally by weakening the dollar and sending risk assets soaring. • A hawkish signal, on the other hand, could reinforce the current headwinds, potentially leading to a deeper correction for Bitcoin. The Great Wall of $112K: Why All-Time Highs Are Hard to Break Every seasoned market participant knows that previous all-time highs (ATHs) are not just numbers on a chart; they are formidable psychological barriers. For Bitcoin, the level around $112,000 represents this wall. Breaking through it requires immense momentum, and the current struggle to do so is explained by a critical missing ingredient: widespread, retail-driven Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). The Psychology of an All-Time High An ATH represents a point of maximum financial opportunity and maximum regret. This creates a powerful and complex dynamic: 1. Profit-Taking: Long-term holders and traders who bought at lower prices see the ATH as a prime opportunity to realize their gains. 2. Break-Even Selling: Investors who bought at or near the previous peak may be eager to sell as soon as their position returns to break-even. 3. Hesitation from New Buyers: For new investors, buying at an all-time high feels inherently risky, leading to hesitation. Overcoming this selling pressure requires a massive wave of new demand, a force often fueled by pure, unadulterated FOMO. The Absence of FOMO-Driven Greed FOMO, or the "Fear of Missing Out," is the force that turns a rally into a parabolic ascent, characterized by a surge in retail interest and media saturation. Analysts suggest that a key reason Bitcoin can’t break the $112K all-time high is the absence of new buyers and FOMO-driven greed. While there have been spikes in retail enthusiasm, the kind of euphoric mania seen at the peak of previous cycles has yet to fully materialize in 2025. Without that surge of irrational exuberance, there may not be enough buying pressure to absorb the natural selling that occurs at an all-time high, creating a stalemate. The Paradigm Shift: How Institutional ETFs Changed the Game While the lack of retail FOMO explains the resistance at the all-time high, the very reason Bitcoin reached this level so quickly is due to a fundamental, game-changing development: the approval and launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. This event represents a true "paradigm shift" in market structure, providing a powerful counterbalance to the whims of retail sentiment. A spot Bitcoin ETF directly holds Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure through traditional brokerage accounts, dramatically simplifying the investment process. This has had a revolutionary impact: 1. Accessibility and Legitimacy: ETFs have democratized access to Bitcoin for a massive new audience and conferred a new level of legitimacy on the asset class. 2. Unlocking Institutional Capital: Most importantly, ETFs created a regulated pathway for institutional investors to allocate capital to Bitcoin. The impact has been staggering, with massive ETF inflows directly fueling Bitcoin's price appreciation. In a recent two-month period, for instance, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $10 billion in inflows. This is not the fickle demand of a retail FOMO cycle; it is the steady, calculated allocation of capital from major financial players, providing a strong floor for the price. Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Near and Long-Term Price Horizons With these conflicting forces shaping the market, analysts are looking at both short-term technical targets and long-term fundamental models to chart a potential path forward. Short-Term Targets: The Path to $117,000 The immediate upper bound for Bitcoin is pegged by many analysts at $117,000, with some suggesting a move to $116K in July is possible. This target is derived from a combination of technical analysis, historical seasonal trends, and the potential for a short squeeze. A decisive break above the $112,000 all-time high would clear the path for a rapid move toward this level. The Long-Term Vision: A $200,000 Call Looking further ahead, some of the most bullish predictions from institutional players call for Bitcoin to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is not based on short-term chart patterns but on a fundamental assessment of supply and demand in this new era. The reasoning is that there is simply too much institutional demand to keep prices flat for long, a trend driven by the continued success of spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing regulatory clarity. Interestingly, this bullish institutional sentiment for Bitcoin is not always extended to other major cryptocurrencies. Some outlooks are less confident that assets like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) will hit new all-time highs this year. Challenges such as network reliability issues and the lack of similar institutional products are cited as reasons for a more tempered outlook on these other assets. This suggests a potential future where Bitcoin's performance decouples from the broader altcoin market, driven primarily by its unique status as an institutional-grade digital asset. Conclusion: The Great Tension and the Path Forward Bitcoin's current market position is one of profound tension. In the world of its own blockchain and market structure, the signals are bullish. A new era of institutional demand, evidenced by billions flowing into spot ETFs, has created a paradigm shift. This is reinforced by a derivatives market primed for a potential short squeeze. However, Bitcoin does not exist in a vacuum. It is also a participant in the broader financial ecosystem, where a hawkish Federal Reserve has put a damper on risk-on sentiment. This macroeconomic resistance is amplified by the psychological barrier of the all-time high, where natural profit-taking meets the absence of the retail-driven FOMO that defined past cycles. The resolution of this conflict will define the next chapter for Bitcoin. A catalyst could come from the Jackson Hole Symposium, a sudden acceleration in ETF inflows, or a shift in the macroeconomic landscape. What is certain is that Bitcoin is no longer just a retail phenomenon; it is a maturing asset on the global stage, navigating a complex interplay of internal strength and external pressures. Whether it reaches $117,000 in the coming months or faces a setback, its journey will be a masterclass in the collision of technology, finance, and human psychology.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln