Is Bitcoin Still a Hedge? What the Iran Israel Conflict RevealsAs geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel escalates, markets are once again gripped by fear. Oil prices have surged, gold has rallied, and investors are rebalancing portfolios in anticipation of further instability. Amidst this backdrop, Bitcoin's behavior is raising fresh questions about its role as a geopolitical hedge.
Bitcoin’s Initial Reaction: A Spike and a Slip
When the first reports of conflict broke, Bitcoin spiked alongside gold. Many hailed this as proof that BTC was becoming a reliable safe haven. However, just days later, prices retraced by roughly 6 to 7 percent as volatility intensified.
As usual, Bitcoin is still highly sentiment driven. While gold held its gains, BTC mirrored risk on assets with intraday volatility, undermining its hedge narrative.
BTC vs. Traditional Safe Havens
Let’s compare Bitcoin’s performance to:
• Gold: Continued upward trend, record ETF inflows
• Oil: Strong rally due to supply shock fears
• USD: Moderate gains as a traditional reserve asset
Bitcoin’s pullback during peak uncertainty suggests that in times of extreme stress, traditional assets still dominate flight to safety behavior.
What the On Chain Data Shows
Interestingly, on chain activity also hints at caution. Exchange inflows increased slightly after the conflict news, suggesting profit taking or reduced conviction among holders.
Moreover, stablecoin volume spiked in Middle Eastern regions — a signal that users may prefer capital preservation over speculation during geopolitical risk.
The Takeaway: Not There Yet
Bitcoin is maturing, and its response to global events is evolving. But this conflict reveals it is not yet a full fledged hedge like gold or the dollar.
For investors, the lesson is clear: BTC can act as a partial hedge in medium term macro trends, but during sharp geopolitical escalations, traditional assets still lead.
What Do You Think?
Is Bitcoin still on track to become a true safe haven asset? Or will it remain a risk sensitive speculative instrument?
BTCUSD trade ideas
BTC/USD Heist Mode: Buy Low, Escape Rich🔓 BTC/USD Crypto Vault Breach: Thief Strategy for Long Entry Robbery (Swing/Day Setup) 🔓
🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰💸✈️
🚨 Welcome to our next Thief Trading-style breakout mission — this time targeting the mighty BTC/USD vault. Using a fusion of technical precision and macro-level insight, we're charting a long entry blueprint for a profitable heist.
🔑 Entry Plan
"The vault is open!" 💥
Buy at current price or set Buy Limit near swing lows (15–30min timeframe pullback entries). We're timing the entry with stealth—precision over panic.
🛑 Stop Loss Setup
SL set near recent swing low (4H TF reference: ~104.000).
Adjust based on position sizing, risk appetite & multi-order tactics.
🎯 Take Profit Target
Targeting 115.000—or exit earlier if price action stalls. Get in, get out. Efficiency is the code.
👀 Scalpers' Notice
Only work the Long side. If your bag’s heavy, strike instantly. If light, ride with swing robbers. Use trailing SLs to protect your bag.
📈 Why We’re Bullish
Market momentum favors the bulls:
Overbought zones acting as lures
Bearish traps ready to flip
Key confluences from sentiment, COT, on-chain & macro analysis
➡️ Full supporting breakdown available 👉👉🔗🔗.
📢 Risk Note – Stay Sharp
Major news events = increased volatility ⚠️
Avoid entries during news. Trail stops to protect running profit. Rob smart.
💖 Boost the Crew
If this blueprint aligns with your mission, hit that Boost button. It fuels the team, and together, we profit like pros. One heist at a time. 💪🎉
🧠 Stay ready—next plan drops soon. Until then, rob safe, rob smart. 🐱👤
EMA SystemThe system of Moving Averages I started out using is the 9-21-50 SMA. I would use the Fast EMA as a trailing stop loss and only trade long when it's above the 50 SMA. The 21 SMA is often a zone where price can bounce back.
12-21 EMA—EMA of EMA can work as well. So can 50-200 SMA or EMA of EMA for telling the larger trend if you want to enter an Option, then trading against it can be fatal.
Bitcoin Supply Shock Is No Longer a Theory, But a Reality
In the intricate and often frenetic world of digital assets, the market is constantly sending signals. Some are loud, ephemeral flashes of volatility that capture headlines for a day. Others are quiet, seismic shifts that build slowly beneath the surface, unnoticed by the masses until they erupt with earth-shattering force. Today, the Bitcoin network is broadcasting one of these profound, underlying signals. It speaks of a disappearance, a vanishing act on a scale never before seen, pointing toward a supply shock so significant that it threatens to redefine the very concept of price discovery for the world’s premier cryptocurrency.
The paradox currently facing market observers is the disconnect between Bitcoin’s somewhat range-bound price, which has struggled to decisively conquer the territory above $120,000, and the tectonic movements occurring in its fundamental market structure. While the price action might suggest a market in equilibrium, a state of indecisive calm, the data tells a story of immense and growing tension. It is a story of a collision course between two unprecedented forces: a relentless, programmatic wave of institutional demand and a rapidly dwindling, fiercely guarded supply.
The central piece of evidence, the smoking gun for this impending crisis, is the state of Bitcoin reserves on cryptocurrency exchanges. These platforms, the bustling marketplaces where buyers and sellers meet, have seen their Bitcoin inventories plummet to a seven-year low. Less than 15% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply now resides on these exchanges, a figure that is as statistically stark as it is historically significant. This isn’t merely a data point; it is a profound statement of intent from the global cohort of Bitcoin holders. It signifies a monumental shift from short-term speculation to long-term conviction, a collective decision to withdraw assets from the realm of immediate liquidity and into the deep, fortified vaults of cold storage. This great disappearance is the quiet prelude to a very loud event, and to understand its implications, one must dissect the powerful forces of both supply and demand that are pulling the market to its breaking point.
The Vanishing Act: Where Has All the Bitcoin Gone?
To grasp the gravity of the dwindling exchange reserves, one must first understand the role of an exchange in the life cycle of a Bitcoin. An exchange is a trading floor. Assets held there are, by their very nature, liquid and available for sale. A holder who moves their Bitcoin onto an exchange is signaling an intent to trade or sell, either immediately or in the near future. Conversely, moving Bitcoin off an exchange and into a personal, self-custodied wallet—often called cold storage—is a deliberate act of preservation. It is a declaration that the owner has no immediate intention of selling. They are choosing to become a long-term holder, a saver, effectively removing their coins from the active, tradeable supply.
For years, the flow of Bitcoin onto and off of exchanges has served as a reliable barometer of market sentiment. During the euphoric peaks of past bull markets, a predictable pattern emerged: as prices soared, a flood of Bitcoin would move onto exchanges as long-term holders finally decided to take profits. This influx of supply would help to satisfy the frenzied buying demand, eventually capping the rally and leading to a market correction.
This cycle, however, is fundamentally different. The opposite is happening. Despite prices reaching new all-time highs, the flow has been overwhelmingly outward. Coins are leaving exchanges at a historic pace, creating a supply-side vacuum. This exodus is not a new phenomenon, but the acceleration over the past 18 months has been breathtaking. It reflects a maturing market and a hardened investor base that has learned the lessons of previous cycles. They have witnessed Bitcoin’s resilience, its ability to weather brutal bear markets and emerge stronger each time. They are no longer content with selling for a 5x or 10x profit, only to watch the asset climb another tenfold in the subsequent years. They have transitioned from treating Bitcoin as a speculative trade to embracing it as a long-term savings technology, a digital store of value in an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic world. The coins are not lost; they have simply gone home, locked away by owners who have no interest in selling at today’s prices.
The Wall Street Leviathan: A New and Insatiable Source of Demand
While the available supply of Bitcoin has been quietly disappearing into private wallets, a new and powerful predator has entered the ecosystem, armed with an insatiable appetite. The launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States marked the single most significant structural change in the history of the Bitcoin market. These regulated financial products, offered by the largest asset managers in the world, have constructed a permanent, one-way bridge connecting the traditional financial system to the digital asset space.
This bridge is not for casual tourism; it is a superhighway for capital. The ETFs, led by BlackRock’s behemoth iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have unleashed a torrent of institutional and retail money that is systematically draining the remaining available supply. The mechanics of these ETFs are crucial to understand. Unlike futures-based products, a spot ETF must acquire and hold the underlying asset—in this case, real Bitcoin—to back the shares it issues to investors. This means that for every dollar that flows into an ETF like IBIT, its managers must go into the open market and buy a corresponding amount of Bitcoin.
The scale of this operation is staggering. In a stunning testament to the demand for this new product, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has, in its short 18-month existence, begun to generate more revenue from annual fees than its long-established and immensely popular S&P 500 fund. This is not a niche product for crypto enthusiasts; it is a mainstream financial blockbuster, attracting billions from investors seeking a simple, regulated way to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
This creates a relentless, programmatic buying pressure that the market has never before had to absorb. Every single trading day, the ETFs collectively purchase a significant amount of Bitcoin. This demand is constant and largely price-agnostic. It is driven by asset allocation decisions, not short-term market timing. This programmatic buying acts like a giant hydraulic pump, sucking up any loose supply available on exchanges. The daily demand from these Wall Street giants often outstrips the new supply of Bitcoin created by miners, creating a structural deficit that can only be filled by one source: the existing coins held by others. And as we’ve seen, those holders are increasingly unwilling to part with their assets.
The Diamond-Handed Super-Majority: A Trillion-Dollar Standoff
The collision between the insatiable demand of the ETFs and the shrinking available supply raises a critical question: why aren't the existing holders selling? With so much new money flooding into the market, basic economics would suggest that the rising price should entice current owners to sell and realize their gains. Yet, the data reveals a fascinating psychological standoff.
According to research from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, a "super-majority" of Bitcoin holders are currently sitting on a colossal $1.2 trillion in unrealized profits. This means that a vast portion of the network acquired their coins at prices far below the current level and are deep in the green. In any other market, such a massive overhang of profit would be seen as a significant risk, a powder keg of potential sell pressure waiting to be ignited.
But in the world of Bitcoin, it has become a fortress of conviction. Glassnode’s analysis concludes that the current price, even in the six-figure range, "is not compelling enough for investors to continue selling." This is a revolutionary insight into the mindset of the modern Bitcoin investor. Their price targets have shifted dramatically. They are not looking to sell at $120,000 or even $140,000. For many, these levels are seen as mere stepping stones on the path to a much higher valuation, one that properly reflects Bitcoin’s role as a global, non-sovereign store of value.
Further research into profit-taking behavior confirms this trend. The amount of realized profit—that is, coins being sold at a gain—in the current cycle has yet to match the levels seen during the peak of the 2024 rally. This suggests that the holders who were willing to sell at those prices have already done so. The remaining cohort is composed of the most steadfast believers, the "diamond hands," who are holding out for a much more significant repricing. Some analyses suggest that the Bitcoin price would notionally need to rise another 30%, toward the $140,000 mark, just to reach a point where this cohort even begins to feel tempted to part with their holdings in a meaningful way. This creates a powerful reflexive loop: the less they sell, the less supply is available, and the more explosive the potential price move when demand continues to pour in.
The Macroeconomic Perfect Storm
The conviction of Bitcoin holders and the flood of institutional capital are not occurring in a vacuum. They are a direct response to a global macroeconomic environment that is creating a perfect storm for a hard, scarce asset. The primary driver of this is the unprecedented expansion of the global money supply. The M2 money supply—a broad measure of currency that includes cash, checking and savings deposits, and money market funds—has reached a record high.
Governments and central banks around the world have engaged in years of quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, effectively printing trillions of dollars to prop up their economies. While often necessary in the short term, this relentless monetary expansion has a corrosive long-term effect: it debases the value of fiat currencies. As the supply of dollars, euros, and yen increases, the purchasing power of each individual unit decreases.
In this environment, rational economic actors begin to search for a safe harbor, a place to protect their wealth from the slow-motion erosion of inflation. Historically, this role was filled by assets like gold. Today, a growing number of individuals, corporations, and even nation-states are turning to Bitcoin. Its mathematically enforced scarcity—a hard cap of 21 million coins that can never be altered—stands in stark contrast to the infinite printability of government-issued money.
This narrative has been supercharged by the recent performance of the US dollar itself. The world’s reserve currency experienced a dramatic 10.8% drop in its worst first-half performance since 1973, signaling a potential shift in global currency dynamics. As the dollar weakens, assets priced in dollars become cheaper for foreign investors, and the appeal of a non-sovereign alternative like Bitcoin grows. This macroeconomic backdrop provides the fundamental "why" behind the Bitcoin trade. It is no longer just a technological curiosity or a speculative bet; it is increasingly viewed as an essential component of a diversified portfolio, a hedge against the very real risks of monetary debasement and geopolitical instability. It is this understanding that underpins bullish price targets that sit around $170,000 and beyond.
Navigating the Uncomfortable Calm
With such a powerfully bullish confluence of factors, the question remains: why has Bitcoin been seemingly stuck in a consolidation pattern, unable to break out and sustain a move into the higher price ranges? Why did the market see a wobble that brought the price down to $105,000, causing anxiety among newer entrants?
The answer lies in the nature of market equilibrium. Even in the most ferocious bull market, there are always sellers. Miners, who must sell some of their newly minted Bitcoin to cover their operational costs, represent a constant source of supply. Early investors may take some profits to diversify their wealth. Short-term traders will try to play the ranges, and even some of the capital in the ETFs will inevitably be redeemed, forcing the funds to sell a corresponding amount of Bitcoin.
The current price range below $120,000 represents the battleground where the relentless, programmatic buying from the ETF leviathan is meeting and absorbing this natural, daily sell pressure. The market is in a state of accumulation and consolidation, building a strong base of support before its next major move. The fact that crypto market sentiment has held steady, even during price dips and the start of the third quarter—a period historically known for its weak seasonality—is a testament to the market's newfound maturity. The "weak hands," or investors with low conviction, have likely been shaken out, leaving a stronger, more resilient base of holders.
This period of sideways price action is likely to be deceptive. The historical seasonality of Bitcoin suggests that summer can often be a period of lackluster performance, lulling market participants into a state of complacency. The idea that Summer 2025 will "catch everyone off guard" stems from this dynamic. While the price chart may look boring, the underlying supply and demand forces are becoming ever more tightly coiled. The pressure is building, and the longer the market consolidates, the more violent the eventual breakout is likely to be.
The Inevitable Collision
The story of Bitcoin in 2025 is the story of an inevitable collision. On one side, you have the most powerful force of demand the asset has ever known: a fleet of Wall Street ETFs, led by the world's largest asset manager, programmatically buying Bitcoin every single day. This demand is structural, relentless, and here to stay.
On the other side, you have the most convicted group of holders in Bitcoin’s history. They are a super-majority, sitting on over a trillion dollars in profit, who have explicitly signaled through their actions and on-chain data that they have no intention of selling at these prices. They are withdrawing their coins from the market at a historic rate, creating a supply desert.
The dwindling reserve of Bitcoin on exchanges is the ticking clock in this grand drama. It is the visible measure of the supply shock in progress. Each day, the ETFs arrive in the market to fill their orders, only to find the shelves are increasingly bare. The deficit they create must be filled by prying coins from the diamond hands of long-term holders. But those holders have made their price clear, and it is not $120,000.
Therefore, the current market is not in a state of calm, but in a state of profound tension. It is the quiet moment before the lightning strike. The forces of an institutional-grade demand shock and a historic holder-induced supply squeeze are on a direct and unavoidable collision course. The question is no longer if this tension will resolve, but when and with what magnitude. The great disappearance of Bitcoin from the open market is the final signal that the supply problem is no longer a distant forecast. It is here, and it is about to change everything.
BTCUSD H4 Potential DropHi there,
BTCUSD H4: As long as the 85,119.33 level holds, the overall trend remains bullish in a larger scope.
Currently, the price is trading below the diagonal dotted trendline. The further it stays below this trendline, the stronger the bears' position.
The level of 101,574.21 is open for a bias towards 93,511.35.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
Bitcoin Faces Impending Drop to Mid-30,000sAs of July 02, 2025, Bitcoin’s price chart, crafted by "RoadToAMillionClub" on TradingView, paints a concerning picture. Currently hovering at $107,831, the cryptocurrency appears to be teetering at the edge of its upper channel, signaling potential trouble ahead. The recent 0.51% dip may be just the beginning of a more significant decline.
The long-term upward trend, marked by a supportive orange line since 2018, has been a beacon for bulls. However, the green trend line projecting a drop toward the mid-30,000s range, around $37,932, suggests a looming correction. This level, a historical support zone, could become the next battleground as selling pressure mounts.
Market indicators point to overextension, with the price hitting a 4-day and 14-day high of $107,831 before the recent pullback. The speculative fervor that drove Bitcoin to these heights seems to be waning, increasing the likelihood of a bearish turn. Investors should brace for volatility, as the cryptocurrency may struggle to maintain its current altitude, potentially sliding toward the mid-30,000s in the coming months.
BTCUSD📈 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Market Update
Current Price: $105,000.00
Outlook: Strongly Bullish
Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,000 and showing continued bullish momentum. Price action indicates strong demand at current levels, with technical structure suggesting potential for an explosive move upward.
Key Insight:
Buy pressure remains dominant, with no immediate signs of reversal. BTC is holding above key support zones and appears poised for a continuation rally.
📊 Trade Idea:
Bias: Long (Buy)
Entry Zone: Market Price (~$105,000)
Short-Term Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $110,000
🎯 Target 2: $120,000
🎯 Target 3: $130,000
Note: Monitor for consolidation above $105,000 as a base for further upside. Risk management remains essential—adjust stop-loss levels as per your strategy.
July 4 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There is no Nasdaq index announcement today.
There is a possibility that Nasdaq will fall sharply,
but even if it moves sideways, the probability of the strategy succeeding increases.
On the left, with the purple finger,
I connected the 2nd section of the long position that I entered yesterday.
*When the blue finger moves,
Bidirectional neutral
Short->Long or long waiting strategy
1. 109,638.1 dollars short position entry section / cut-off price when orange resistance line is broken
2. 108,764.4 dollars long position switching / cut-off price when green support line is broken
3. 110,273.1 dollars long position 1st target -> target price in order from Miracle
If the strategy is successful, I left a simulation with the pink finger,
so please refer to it.
Those who held long positions yesterday, please check if the purple support line is broken,
If it falls immediately from the current position or
If the pink resistance line is not broken when the 1st section at the top is touched,
It is a vertical decline section,
And if the 109,638.1 dollar short position entry section at the top is not touched,
It is a long waiting strategy at the 2nd section at the bottom.
I think it would be good to think of it as a game in the 1+4 section.
From the 2nd section breakout, I have marked the Bottom -> 3rd section at the bottom.
Up to this point, please just refer to and use my analysis,
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you for your hard work this week.
Bitcoin is still in a BullflagBitcoin has been chopping sideways from 110k to 100k since May which is almost 2 months. People have been saying this is a descending channel but sometimes global swan events can disrupt Technical analysis. If you discount the Bitcoin dump on 5th June as Elon Musk/Trump clash and on 20th June as I*rael/Iran war, then Bitcoin is still in a bull flag structure and will breakout to the upside following the global liquidity.
BTC Setup: 2.7 R:R"Bitcoin Poised for New Uptrend After Bull Flag Breakout Retest"
Bitcoin appears ready to begin a new uptrend after successfully retesting the breakout from a bull flag pattern and completing consolidation above key support.
This setup offers a 2.7:1 risk-to-reward ratio, with the following trade parameters:
Entry: $109,965.79
Stop Loss: $106,300
Target: $120,000
July 1 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis
Hello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Shortly later at 10:30 PM and 11:00 PM, there will be a NASDAQ index announcement.
On the left, with a purple finger,
I connected the long position entry point of $106,775.9, which I entered yesterday, to today's strategy.
Since the rebound was not strong yesterday,
the 12-hour chart -> daily chart MACD dead cross is currently under pressure.
Depending on the situation, it can drop strongly to the 3rd section at the bottom,
and since there may be some people who are maintaining long positions yesterday,
I will explain in detail the operating method such as the loss cut price,
so please check it carefully.
*When the blue finger moves,
Bidirectional neutral
Short->Long switching strategy
1. 107,300.3 dollars short position entry section / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. 106,222.2 dollars long position switching / stop loss price when section 2 is touched
3. Top section long position 1st target -> Good 2nd target
It is important until 9 o'clock when the 12-hour candle is created.
After 9 o'clock, the blue finger 106,222.2 dollars at the bottom
Becomes the main support line
If it comes down from the current position, section 2
The main support line is divided.
In terms of the pattern, it is section 6+12.
If section 2 is touched right away,
There is a high possibility of a strong drop today,
So you should be careful.
- Those who are maintaining a long position
If you touch the 2nd section before 9 PM without touching the short position entry point at the top
You should operate at a loss cut price.
I think it would be good to adjust it according to leverage.
If it falls after touching the 1st section at the top
It becomes a vertical decline condition.
From the bottom, from the 3rd
Maximum Bollinger Band daily chart support line section
Please note that it can be pushed up to 100,685.5 dollars.
I have never changed my perspective suddenly or irresponsibly after leaving an analysis article.
I did my best until the end today.
Please use my analysis article so far only for reference and use
I hope you operate safely with principle trading and loss cut prices.
Thank you.
Bitcoin Approaches the $110,000 Level Once AgainDuring the latest trading session, Bitcoin gained over 3%, as renewed buying momentum entered the market. For now, the cryptocurrency appears to be approaching its historical highs once again, driven largely by the growing weakness of the U.S. dollar. This is reflected in the DXY index, which measures dollar strength and is now hovering around 96 points, consolidating a bearish trend not seen in years. As the dollar continues to weaken, BTC could benefit from the environment, maintaining consistent buy-side pressure in the short term.
Lateral Range Still Intact
Despite recent upward movements visible on the chart, it’s important to highlight that BTC has begun to consolidate within a defined short-term lateral range, marked by a ceiling at $110,000 and a floor near $100,000. While buying pressure has shown signs of resurgence, it remains insufficient to break out of the range, which continues to dominate in the short term. If price fails to break through these key levels, a wider consolidation channel could develop in the coming sessions.
Indicators:
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to hover near the neutral zero line, indicating a stable balance between buying and selling forces. If this behavior persists, neutrality could become more dominant in the short term.
ADX: A similar pattern is emerging on the ADX indicator, as the line remains below the neutral 20 level. This suggests that the average volatility of recent moves is steadily decreasing, and unless the ADX starts to climb, Bitcoin may struggle to sustain the current bullish momentum recently seen on the chart.
Key Levels to Watch:
$110,000 – Major Resistance: This level marks Bitcoin’s historical high. If buying pressure pushes price back to and above this level, it could signal the reignition of a strong bullish bias and set the stage for a resumption of the previous uptrend.
$106,000 – Mid-Range Support: The midpoint of the current consolidation range. It acts as nearby support and may serve as a barrier against short-term pullbacks.
$100,000 – Psychological Support Zone: This level aligns with recent multi-week lows. A return to this level could jeopardize the short-term bullish bias that has attempted to hold over recent sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
BTC LONG TP:110,000 30-06-2025Still riding the bullish pattern 🚀
Looking for an entry between 106,200 – 106,700, targeting 109,500 – 110,500, with a clean 4 RR average.
🕓 Timeframe: 4H
⏳ Duration: 40–50 hours
Context: This is all about catching a manipulative wick — small entry now, stack more if price hits the suggested levels later.
If the move doesn’t happen within the estimated time, the trade is invalid.
We don’t use indicators, we’re not out here drawing lines or cute little shapes — I just give you a clean trade.
Bitcoin: 170k–180k?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Bitcoin: 170k to 180k?
Let’s talk bias.
We’ve seen a powerful move off the 75k low, and it’s hitting some markers of a potential wave 1 impulse. If that structure holds and price doesn’t come back to wipe out the lows in a wave 2 retracement, then this is what we’d be looking at.
The idea? This is a conservative roadmap built off Elliott Wave Fibonacci projections and it targets the 170k to 180k zone.
Now, let’s be clear. This is a conservative projection. We’re not talking hopium fueled 250k moon targets here. We have no proof of that yet. We're anchoring the wave count and saying: if this is a 1, we’re due a 2, and then a 3 takes us to the upper levels.
But there’s a catch. Always is.
If price starts to fade back through the 91.8k area in a deep aggressive retrace, this roadmap gets less likely. Breaking the 75k pivot means the impulse structure failed or was misread, and we shift the count.
Until then, the 170k–180k level is a possible destination based on this roadmap.
Trade Safe!
Trade Clarity!
BTCUSD UPDATE MARKET This is a 2-hour BTC/USD (Bitcoin to US Dollar) chart showing a bearish projection after a consolidation phase. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:
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🔍 Current Price:
107,549 USD
Up +1.74%, suggesting a recent bullish push — likely a short-term rally.
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🧠 Technical Zones & Forecast:
1. Resistance Zone (~107,500–109,000):
This area has been tested multiple times.
The dotted arrow from this level suggests a projected reversal, possibly forming a lower high.
2. First Demand/Support Zone (~104,800–105,200):
Shallow support. If broken, it may confirm the start of a deeper correction.
3. Second Demand Zone (~101,500–102,800):
More robust support.
Could serve as a bounce zone or long-entry area.
4. Third Major Demand Zone (~97,500–99,000):
Strong long-term support; a bearish target if momentum increases.
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🧭 Directional Bias:
The dotted line shows a bearish trajectory with targets at 104.9k, 102.8k, and potentially 99k.
The price action reflects a distribution range at the top, hinting at potential markdown phase starting soon.
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✅ Conclusion:
Short-term bullish, but showing signs of weakness near resistance.
Watch for rejection around 108k–109k to confirm the bearish move.
Breakdown below 104.9k would accelerate downside toward 102.8k and 99k.
Let me know if you'd like entry/exit signals or stop-loss suggestions based on this outlook.