BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin - Watching For CapitulationI'm not going to try and predict whether not Bitcoin has begun what I believe to be its inevitable long term bear market, but I will look at some important trends and horizontal levels. For years, I've speculated that Bitcoin would have a hard time sustaining a significant new all-time high. It turns out, for the mean time, I've been correct in that assumption.
Bitcoin has now broken down from the ascending broadening wedge pattern that began in November, 2022. Here's the chart zoomed out:
There is still a chance for this to be a false breakdown, if buyers show up soon and take price back above that $87-90K resistance, which has become quite strong. However, ongoing global market news continues to remain bearish fundamentally, as many commodities and material objects will have to be repriced to the upside. At the same time, the FED is in a bind because if this causes a spike in unemployment, they will be more hesitant to lower rates, fearing greater inflation. This is the definition of stagflation.
In any case, zoomed in you can see that Bitcoin is in a downtrend channel - often a bullish pattern. My speculation is that Bitcoin will attempt to break down BELOW the channel, leading to a cascade of liquidations. This kind of drop can end around $69-71K on the shallow end, though can go much deeper from a structural standpoint. Outlined are all the support levels, and circled in red is a potential capitulation area.
If Bitcoin manages to bounce from the $60-70K level on high enough volume, depending on economic news, price can even make a new high. But we're not there yet by any means. This possibility is shown with the green arrow. On the other hand, if Bitcoin cannot bounce at the previous trend resistance (light blue line below the red local downtrend), price can retrace all the way towards $48-50K.
Let's see what happens!
Thanks for reading.
-Victor Cobra
BTC forming a topI see chances for the BTCUSDT to form a top and head lower into the weekend.
Sell with stop at 84000 and TP at 79000
Bitcoin 1hr Update, Retrace To Continue HigherBitcoin from the 1hr pov will drop to the area between $78850 - $77555 to then bounce and continue higher but just to test the $82865 Res line, and as long as the Daily is in extended Bearish mode every bounce will be short lived to then continue lower until the Daily exits the Bearish mode.
BTC 97K Long Target Inverse Head and ShouldersTHIS BLUE NECKLINE IS 100% THE LINE TO FOLLOW
Inverse Head And Shoulders
Active Long Target - 97,050
What To Expect?
Trump's tweets are highly volatility just like the markets so rather then trying to call the exact bottom use this for your bull / bear transition. I'm not saying when it will happen... but above the blue line bullish, below it flip bearish despite it would take a number in the 60Ks to invalidate this target.
Downside seems to be the orange support line in 73.8... but money is on 97K sooner than later and this chart staying valid.
Confluence at 65KBTC seems to be developing a bullish Gartley pattern, currently evolving within a potential bear flag.
The pattern would complete at point D, around $64,600–65,000, where multiple confluences meet:
- 78.6% retracement of XA
- 141.4% extension of BC
- Lower boundary of the flag
- Retest of former resistance trendline
- Saylor’s average entry price 😏
A key condition: we need to break below the current wedge to increase probabilities of reaching point C.
Until then, the pattern remains a setup in progress.
Letting it unfold, one leg at a time.
Will BITCOIN prove to be resilient amidst this market crash??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just hit its 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since September 06 2024, while completing the first 1D Death Cross since August 09 2024. This is a critical double combo development as last time those conditions emerged it was a bullish signal.
Despite the theoretically bearish nature of the Death Cross, the last one on 1D was formed just four days after the market's previous major long-term bottom of August 05 2024. That bottom was exactly on the level that the market hit today, the 1W MA50.
The 1W RSI sequences among the 2 fractals are identical and if it wasn't for the abysmal negative market fundamentals regarding the back-and-forth tariffs, that would be an automatic long-term buy entry, the 3rd on of this Bull Cycle.
The only condition we can technically rely on right now, amidst the stock market crash, is for the weekly candle to close above the 1W MA50, as it did on August 05 2024. In that case and of course if and only if the trade war gets under control (and/ or the Fed makes an urgent rate cut), we can expect a new long-term Bullish Leg to begin towards $150k and above.
Failure to address those concerns and a 1W candle close below the 1W MA50, can result into a stronger sell-off towards $50000 and the next long-term technical Support level of the August 05 2024 Low (49150). That would also be a major Support cluster as the 1W MA200 (gray trend-line) is just below that level (and holding since October 16 2023) and by the time of the drop, the market may test that as well.
So what do you think? Will BTC turn out to be resilient amidst this market crash or will it follow suit and decline towards $50k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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[Update BTC]: $97K-->$66K-->$320K-->30K?A quick simple prediction based on my previous models. let's see.
BTCUSD Market Discrepancy Analysis (April 11, 2025)
📉 Chart Overview:
The chart reflects Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, with significant price movements between 77,417 (support) and 83,846 (resistance). The asset recently rallied to fill a Fair Value Gap (FVG) before facing resistance and dropping back to retest the lower region.
1. Resistance Rejection at $83,846:
- The price spiked aggressively into the resistance zone, but quickly reversed after failing to sustain above it.
- This price rejection is clear evidence of strong seller presence.
- The FVG zone just below the resistance appears to have been filled, triggering a sharp correction.
2. Failed Breakout or Bull Trap:
- The s…
- This suggests that buying pressure was temporary, and mostly driven by short-term momentum traders rather than real demand.
4. Incomplete Fair Value Gap at77,417:
- Price moved sharply down and almost touched the FVG area near 77,417, but did not completely fill it.
- This leaves an imbalance and suggests that the market may revisit this area to fully mitigate it.
5. False Break of Lower High:
- The high near 82,290 was breached temporarily, but price did not close above convincingly.
- Indicates a fake breakout structure within a broader bearish context.
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🔧 Technical Summary:
| Zone | Level | Status |
|------------------|-----------------|-------------------------|
| Resistance | 83,846 | Rejected |
|…
This chart shows a clear discrepation between price momentum and volume confirmation. While price temporarily surged into a resistance zone, it lacked the strength to hold above key breakout levels, suggesting the rally was unsustainable.
> The Fair Value Gap (FVG) at77,417 remains unfilled, and current price structure points to a potential return to that zone. Expect bearish continuation unless BTC reclaims and sustains above $82,290 with volume.
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Let me know if you want this in a simplified caption format for social sharing!
TC/GOLD: Could 1 BTC Reach 6,000 oz of Gold by 2027 ($19.2M US)The chart tracks Bitcoin (BTC) priced in ounces of gold (oz) on a logarithmic scale, revealing its historical growth and a speculative projection. As of April 2025, 1 BTC equals approximately 25 oz of gold, which translates to $80,000 per BTC at an implied gold price of $3,200/oz (derived from the projection).
The chart forecasts a dramatic rise to 6,000 oz of gold by 2027, a 240x increase from the current level. At $3,200/oz for gold, this would value 1 BTC at $19.2M, resulting in a market cap of $378 trillion (19.7M BTC in circulation). Historically, Bitcoin has shown exponential growth, with significant spikes during bull cycles (e.g., 2017-2018 and 2024-2025, as circled). Factors like Bitcoin’s capped supply, post-2024 halving scarcity, and potential for increased adoption as "digital gold" could support such a run.
What are your thoughts? Could Bitcoin achieve this monumental target, or is the projection too optimistic? Let’s discuss!
TL;DR: BTC/GOLD ratio is set to ****ing pump! From 25 oz now to 6,000 oz by 2027—1 BTC could hit $19.2M. Buckle up for a wild ride!
Double bottom forms, but trend remains bearish?Despite pressure stemming from President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs, analysts at Bernstein note Bitcoin’s relative resilience, particularly on shorter-term time frames where a double bottom pattern suggests underlying bullish interest. Bitcoin’s ‘safe haven’ appeal may be resonating with investors more than previously.
However, the longer-term chart reveals price action still maintained within a multi-month downtrend. After briefly rising above $80,000 on April 9 (peaking at $83,000), the price has since pulled back, confirming last week’s losses and raising the risk of further downside.
BITCOIN weekly and 50 SMA - has VERY good newsAs you can easily See, despite all the unsettled News and events in recent days, the current Week candle has returned to GREEN having hit that 50 SMA.
To remind you, we began the week with a RED candle BELOW that 50 SMA.
This is Very important for sentiment. We bounced off that 50 back in 2024 and went to ATH.
To remind you, we have hit the 50 at the same time as the weekly MACD has entered a Bounce Zone, very near Neutral.
The MACD chart above shows you that the Histogram bar has also returned to White, showing a possible turn of favour from Bearish to Bullish.
BITCOIN IS SO READY TO GO
We just need the investors that are pouring money into the Snail called GOLD, to realise the Future is BITCOIN
We wait
Bitcon On Track For 73.3K - Daily BreakdownBy now it's fairly obvious we've entered a bearish market. From a peak of 109k to now 82k this is hard to argue. We can view our earning moving average data with the red(10day), blue(20day), and yellow(50day) to see the candles are well below all levels. The most important level on the bearish confirmation is the 50 day EMA cross. This is known as a 'death cross'. When price crosses below the 50 day EMA price historically will continue to decline.
Our second major confirmation to enter short is by looking at lower Support zones for price. Looking at price to the left there are long periods from 73.3k to 87k where price action took off very rapidly with zero consolidation.(side ways market action). This means when price comes back down as it is there are zero support levels(as in the orange box) until 73.3k.
73.3k was previously a resistance level(where price did not go above) four times as in circled. These levels will now become a support zone for buying liquidity.
I do believe this bearish market will be much different than previous years. It will be a much more drawn out process with less typical overall volatility. This is due to the increase in the market cap is much higher than before. That being said the major confirmations based upon EMA data and zero support levels make this overall trend very clear.
Don't be stupid NEVER trade against the trend! Do not except price to snap to target over night either. This is a daily view on the overall direction of BTC and is not a short term trade. We should except price to decrease overall, but remember the market increase and decrease in 'waves'.
BTC headed to 75k? dead cat at 77.7k then 73-75k support comingBTC was holding well against the market's Tariff-Tantrum.
But a significant dip is starting on a Sunday (as often does).
If sentiment continues into Monday, we should see 75k soon.
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Previous Charts below
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$ 105k cycle Top call:
$ 82K Bounce call:
$ 73K previous cycle top (and current retest target):
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BTC USD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
Especially those who are new members (welcome)
In the digital currency Bitcoin, after a sharp rise and the formation of a range zone, we saw a drop in the price of Bitcoin.
Today we want to check whether this drop continues or not?
If the answer is yes! How far?
We see a corrective pattern on the daily timeframe.
This pattern is flat with a long wave C.
The structure of this pattern is 3-3-5.
Wave C is 5 waves. Now we are in wave 5 and we are waiting for a slight increase in the price to the $ 86,500 area and then the price will drop to the $ 73,500 area.
This area is a static support and we expect a reaction at this price.
Good luck and be profitable.
BTC Hash RibbonAs requested by Master Ananda, here is the BTC hash ribbon indicator flashing a buy signal. There is typically a short lag after appearing before BTC's next up move begins. Enjoy!
Big Pop Could Come Here Where we're most likely to be in the general trend structure now is fairly subjective. We came up off the butterfly support mentioned previous which is a great start for the bull move but we're also still well inside of bull trap territory.
If we have a low or a bull trap forming, should be a big spike here.
Will the support zone keep BTC falling?BTC has once again bounced off the upper border of the downtrend channel. Here, it is worth remembering the long-formed gap around $74,500, which was closed during the last decline.
Here, you can see how the price fell into a strong support zone from $77,742 to $73,980, but if this zone is broken, we can again see a strong decline around also very strong resistance and the lower border of the channel at $68,590.
Looking the other way, you can see that the increases were stopped by the resistance zone from $84,000 to $86,700, only breaking out of this zone at the top will give the possibility of growth towards strong resistance at $94,300.
The RSI is still in the lower part of the range and is again heading towards the lower borders, but here the price has formed a lower low, which can still give another reaction.
BTCUSD APRILBUY BELOW GOLD LINE
SELL ABOVE
EVEN A CAVEMAN CAN DO THIS
Remember, it's gonna be a wild ride. And that ride never ends.
Bitcoin Selling Opportunity!Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below the psychological $85,000 level after a historic bull run that pushed price to fresh all-time highs. The market is cooling off — not crashing — with price action forming a high-tight flag, often a continuation signal after a vertical move.
However, with momentum slowing and volatility compressing, traders must prepare for a major breakout or breakdown in the coming days.
📈 Trend Structure:
BTC/USD remains in a strong bullish trend. Since the breakout above $69,000 (previous ATH from 2021), the rally has been aggressive and directional — barely giving bears a chance to breathe.
Price has formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, respecting a steep ascending trendline since early February. But now, the pair is coiling near the highs, forming a tight range between $80,000 and $83,500.
🔹 Key Resistance Zones:
$83,500 – $85,000: Immediate resistance; this area has capped price multiple times in recent sessions. A daily close above this zone could trigger the next leg higher.
$88,000: Near-term bullish target based on measured move from recent consolidation.
$90,000 – $92,000: A psychological milestone — and a possible magnet for price if bulls break out cleanly.
🔸 Key Support Zones:
$80,000: Round number support — the floor of the current consolidation.
$76,500: Previous breakout zone and minor demand area.
$72,000 – $74,000: Major support and ideal re-test level if BTC corrects — where many sidelined bulls are likely waiting to buy in.
📐 Technical Pattern:
Bitcoin is forming a high-tight flag — a bullish continuation pattern typically found after strong vertical rallies. The range is tightening, volume is dropping, and volatility is compressing — classic signs that a volatility expansion is coming soon.
A breakout above $83,500–85,000 would confirm the flag and likely ignite a sharp move to
88K
or higher. On the flip side, a breakdown below $80K could send price to retest $76.5K or even $74K — which would still be healthy within the broader trend.
🧭 Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Bullish Scenario:
A breakout and daily close above $85,000 would confirm the continuation pattern, targeting $88,000 first, then $90,000+. Volume and candle structure will be key to confirming the move.
❌ Bearish Scenario:
If price fails to break out and instead drops below $80,000, a correction could unfold toward $76,500 or even $74,000 — presenting a potential re-entry opportunity for long-term bulls.
📌 Conclusion:
Bitcoin is trading near all-time highs in a classic consolidation phase. Price action favors the bulls, but the breakout hasn’t confirmed — yet. Whether BTC breaks above $85K or drops below $80K will likely define the next major swing.
Bitcoin Double Bottom Pattern Came into PlayFenzoFx—Bitcoin jumped upward from $74,475 support as expected due to the formation of a double bottom pattern on the 1-hour chart, which is a bullish signal.
As of this writing, the price is stabilizing and testing the $81,160 mark as support. However, the 50-SMA on the 1-hour chart serves as the pivot point between the bull and bear market.
The next bullish target could be $84,730, followed by $88,000 if BTC holds above the discussed moving average.
Trade BTC/USD Swap Free at FenzoFx Decentralized Broker
BTC/USD more sells incoming? 66k?!Good morning traders, I’m back again with another beauty guys!! I’m sure everyone is asking what’s happening in the markets recently, well Trump(era) is happening.
Back to the charts, here I have a 1 hour TF, yesterday we saw very big moves in price following the news that the tariffs are on hold, but that doesn’t or shouldn’t take always our market sentiments and our biases we had coming into this new week.
This setup is basically a continuation set up but for now I’m only focusing on the relative equal lows because we understand that’s there is sell stops resting below those lows. For the rest of the day we can expect price to deliver lower price for the rest of the week but my question is this…can price drop to the 66k level?
Good luck traders and remember we study price and time not technical analysis!
BTC/USD – Bearish Correction Ahead? Eyes on $44K
After failing to hold above the $70K psychological level, Bitcoin is showing clear signs of weakening momentum. The recent price action has formed a lower high, and bearish divergence on the RSI is becoming more evident across multiple timeframes.
From a technical standpoint, BTC is currently testing key support around $66K. A clean break below this zone could trigger further downside movement. Based on Fibonacci retracement levels and prior consolidation zones, the next significant support lies around the $44K area.
This level aligns with the 0.618 retracement from the recent bull run and coincides with previous accumulation zones from early 2024. A retest of this level could provide a healthier base for the next bullish wave.
🚨 Watch for a potential drop toward $44,000 in the coming weeks if current support fails to hold.
