Fakeout? Crash soonIn this chart, I've marked the breakouts, and you’ll notice all three occur outside of U.S. session hours, with two on weekends where trading volumes are notably low. This pattern strongly suggests manipulation: market makers appear to push BTC’s price up when trading activity is minimal, potentially to trigger short liquidations. This isn’t how a true bull market typically starts. For a sustained uptrend, we’d need to see strong demand across major trading sessions, not just spikes on weekends followed by weekday selloffs.
Some may argue that ETF demand is driving BTC’s rise. However, the reality is that ETF buyers transact through OTC markets rather than directly on exchanges. Even billions in OTC buys won’t immediately impact the spot price, as seen yesterday when $800M worth of BTC not only doesnt cause uptrend but today we are 1 percent down . Looking at ETF data, ETF customers which are mostly retail traders often buy at local peaks and sell at lows, just pure emotional group of people
This feels similar to the previous BTC surge to $70K and subsequent drop to $49K. During that run-up, we saw weekend pumps from $57K to $70K, fueled by hype (such as around Trump’s speech), only for BTC to experience a 30% crash soon after. Now, we’re seeing a similar rally just before the election cycle. Even if Trump is elected, any BTC-positive policies would take at least 1–2 years to implement, so the current price action appears to be fueled by speculation rather than fundamentals. The Biden administration’s attempts to prop up the stock market for electoral gains add further artificial support. Fundamentally, nothing has drastically changed in the past 2–3 months, yet BTC is trading at a premium levels.
Another factor to consider is the lack of activity in altcoins, signaling minimal interest from large holders. The only notable exception is Dogecoin, which has rallied on the back of Musk-related news ( which are just bs). With no broad-based altcoin recovery, BTC’s uptrend looks even more fragile.
In my opinion, we may see this uptrend last until next Friday at most, after which a significant downtrend is likely imminent.
I might be wrong but I will try to keep myself neutral and watch this week price action closely
