Weekly Market Recap | DXY, Gold, Bitcoin – What Just Happened? In this week’s market recap, we break down the key economic and political events shaking up the financial markets:
💥 DXY makes a short-term comeback — but is the dollar still on a long-term decline?
🏆 Gold pulls back from record highs — are dip-buyers already stepping in?
🚀 Bitcoin bounces back — is it acting like a risk asset or a safe haven?
We dig into:
The impact of easing Sino-U.S. trade tensions
Weak U.S. PMI data and Fed policy expectations
Goldman Sachs' bearish outlook on the dollar
Why institutional demand continues to fuel gold and crypto
🎯 Plus, I share my forecast for the U.S. dollar and what traders should watch next.
Whether you're trading currencies, gold, or crypto, this recap will give you the clarity and edge you need going into the new week.
BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin Surges and Gold Falls: Risk Appetite RisesBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
Friday’s session sends a clear message to financial markets: risk appetite is roaring back, and investors are shifting their positions accordingly. While Bitcoin heads for its best week since March—fueled by geopolitical expectations and signs of a softer U.S. trade policy—the gold market, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, is undergoing a mild pullback from its record highs.
Bitcoin Tops $93,000 and Eyes Weekly Gains
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), climbed to $93,300, marking a near 10% gain for the week after briefly touching $94,000 on Wednesday. This rebound represents a sharp reversal from the caution seen in recent weeks and largely reflects a shift in tone from Washington.
President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move interpreted as an institutional stability signal. He also hinted at potentially lowering tariffs on China, easing market tensions and benefiting higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies.
Although Beijing officially denied any trade talks, Bloomberg reports suggest China is considering exempting certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, stoking hopes for a de-escalation. In this context, Bitcoin, which has historically reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and market sentiment, has drawn investor interest as a speculative asset with upside potential amid greater liquidity and less trade friction.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
A long-term Bitcoin chart reveals that the Fibonacci retracement has returned near the 61.0% level, currently sitting just below it. The Point of Control (POC) is around $84,568, significantly below today’s price of $93,617.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 55.84, shows no signs of extreme overbought conditions. Should the current resistance level be decisively broken, Bitcoin could surge toward $98,000, reclaiming territory lost in late February. Conversely, if momentum falters, a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—around $90,822, the previous resistance—becomes more likely.
Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs
On the flip side, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,318.28 per ounce, while June futures slipped 0.6% to $3,328.67. These modest declines come after gold reached a historic peak of $3,500 earlier this week.
The primary catalyst for the pullback has been renewed risk-on sentiment, driven by strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet (+2.5%), Amazon (+3.3%), and Nvidia (+3.6%)—all benefiting from the AI boom and boosting confidence in growth assets.
Additionally, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which had hit three-year lows, pressured precious metals. Yet gold remains elevated, underpinned by structural factors like persistent inflation, Middle East conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions.
A New Balance Between Safe Havens and Speculation
This week’s action underscores a temporary shift in investor priorities. With signs of trade détente and no surprises from central banks, capital is moving from defensive assets into higher-return, speculative vehicles such as cryptocurrencies.
Other altcoins have also performed well: Polygon is up 11%, Cardano +4.4%, Solana +2.7%, while Ethereum holds steady near $1,770.
Although the backdrop remains fragile—trade talks remain uncertain and global risks linger—the market’s narrative has turned cautiously optimistic. This shift positions Bitcoin as a hybrid asset, straddling the line between a digital haven and a high-risk investment.
Conclusion
The divergent performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the market’s current duality: optimism with reservations. If trade-tension relief takes hold, digital assets could see further gains. Conversely, renewed conflict would likely propel gold back into the spotlight as the premier store of value.
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Bearish drop?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is reacting off the pivot which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 94,119.93
1st Support: 88,510.65
1st Resistance: 99,362.24
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
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On May 9, London market BTCUSD real-time trading strategy
Yesterday, it was suggested to buy BTCUSD in the range of 98500-99500. The target of 102k achieved a good profit growth.
Regarding BTCUSD, the current demand is also rising sharply. For Trump's call for BTCUSD, while XAUUSD falls back, this is a positive boost. At present, more factors are pushing BTCUSD to continue to rise. You can pay attention to the retracement of the band support of 101500-10200, and the upper side needs to pay attention to 104500-106000
To prevent missing out on some good trading strategies and ideas, remember to continue to pay attention to the ideas of the swing trading center. If you want to get more and more accurate signals, you can leave me a message.
Bitcoin Breaks Trendline-Is $109k Next?Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel Pattern
The asset is exhibiting an ascending channel pattern, indicative of sustained bullish momentum. Key observations include:
- Channel Boundaries: The price has consistently respected the channel's upper and lower boundaries, forming higher highs and higher lows.
- Breakout and Retest: Following a strong momentum breakout, the price is potentially retesting a key support level, previously acting as resistance.
- Support Zone: If buyers confirm support at this level, it may signal a continuation of the uptrend, targeting the upper boundary of the channel at $109,000.
Key Monitoring Points:
- Bullish Confirmation Signals: Look for bullish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the support zone, or increased buying volume to confirm long positions.
- Risk Management: Failure to hold support could signal a bearish shift, emphasizing the importance of monitoring price action and adjusting strategies accordingly.
104.2k was BTC top for a REASON: Golden Covid fib calling itHere we are again testing the ATH levels.
This time we got an EXACT hit on the fib.
Golden Fibs are always strong as proven.
$104,235 (Coinbase) is the exact level
$ 95,176 is a possible retrace target.
$120,295 is next target if we break out.
It is PROBABLE that we Orbit this fib for a while.
It is POSSIBLE that we break and run to next fib.
It is PLAUSIBLE to be a Lower-High TOP for a while.
Please hit the BOOST to encourage more posts.
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Previous Plots below
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$105k top call:
75k Retrace targeted EXACTLY
97.8k Breakout Call
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 5-9 : Inside-Breakaway PatternI will be unavailable tomorrow morning to do my normal Plan Your Trade video at 5am. So, I'm delivering this video for all of you tonight to assist you with the SPY cycle pattern tomorrow.
As soon as I get my brother settled in for his surgery, I'll find a Starbucks and settle in to check on the markets.
This is a short video - so please understand the context of the markets may depend on what happens overnight.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Bitcoin Short Setup | 30m SMC OB Rejection + Clean RR💣 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 30-Min SMC Short | May 9, 2025
We just caught BTC’s premium tap into a 30m bearish Order Block, followed by a strong rejection candle. This is a classic Smart Money play, where price fills inefficiency and instantly rejects the institutional footprint.
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES:
📦 Bearish Order Block tapped at $101,752
📈 Strong bullish impulse followed by hard rejection
🎯 Short from premium into discount zone (~$99,114 target)
🔺 Clean Risk-to-Reward: ~1:5+
💰 High-probability Smart Money setup
📊 Setup Specs:
Timeframe: 30min
Direction: Short
Entry Zone: $101,752
TP: $99,114
SL: ~$102,000
RR: Approx. 1:5+
💡 Trade Logic:
Price made a liquidity grab + FVG fill before tapping a 30min Order Block. The sharp red engulfing candle at the top confirms SMC presence and intention to sell-off. This zone represents premium pricing, ideal for institutional distribution.
🎯 Chart Ninja Note:
“Smart Money never chases price… they wait for the retest where the fear begins.”
Trade Idea: BTCUSD Long ( BUY LIMIT )1. Trade Direction: Long
• Trend Alignment:
• Daily: Strong uptrend resumption with higher highs, higher lows, and price reclaiming above key moving average. RSI > 70 indicates strong momentum.
• 15-Min: Bullish breakout from consolidation, steep EMA slope, MACD rising, momentum increasing.
• 3-Min: Intraday momentum continuation pattern. Clean bullish price structure.
• MACD (All Timeframes): Strong bullish crossover, rising histogram — confirming trend strength.
• RSI (All Timeframes): RSI not yet overextended on lower timeframes, suggesting room for more upside.
• Price Action: Recent breakout with healthy retracement structure and no major bearish divergence.
• Fundamentals (Contextual):
• BTC crossing $100K is a psychological milestone likely to invite more inflows.
• Macro environment remains supportive for digital assets (inflation hedge, fiat debasement narrative).
• Strong market sentiment and volume suggest continuation potential.
⸻
2. Trade Setup
Entry:
• Entry Zone: $102,800
• Price is consolidating above previous resistance (~$102,000), now acting as support.
Stop Loss:
• SL: $101,200
• Below most recent intraday swing low and EMA on lower timeframes, giving it enough room.
Take Profit:
• TP: $106,800
• Near the next psychological level and extension target from recent measured moves.
FUSIONMARKETS:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Just Blasted Through $100K – Why $108K & $115K Are Next!
Summary
Bitcoin has staged a clear turnaround after holding support near $76K in April and reclaiming critical dynamic resistances at $89.3K and $96.7K. On May 8, BTC printed a powerful rally candle that peaked at $102.7K, signaling a potential shift from range-bound chop back into an up-trend. This piece unpacks the price structure, macro drivers, and key levels, and lays out the scenarios for the next leg higher or a corrective pullback.
Macro & Sentiment Backdrop
Macro liquidity ebb & flow: Recent dovish commentary from the Fed reduced forward rate-hike risk, restoring confidence in risk assets.
Regulatory clarity: transparent guidelines in major markets continue to draw fresh institutional capital.
Network health: On-chain metrics such as rising active addresses and declining exchange inflows reinforce supply scarcity narratives.
Chart Structure & Technical Evolution
Declining volatility and volume contraction characterized the consolidation phase.
Dynamic Resistance Breaks
R1 (~$89.3K) & R2 (~$96.7K) (grey/green labels) had capped rallies in mid-April and late-April.
The decisive May 8 candle surged through both, converting them into short-term support pivots.
Current Momentum
A long green daily bar with above-average volume implies genuine buying demand (not a thin-market spike).
Price now trades above $100K, a major psychological and technical threshold.
Key Levels & Zones
Level Type Significance
$108K Static Supply Prior swing high; first major profit‐taking zone
$102.7K Recent Peak Near‐term resistance; tag of psychological $100K
$96.7K Dynamic R2 → Support Ideal retest area for dip buyers
$89.3K Dynamic R1 → Support Secondary support if $96.7K fails
$76K–$78K April Range Support Invalidation zone for bullish thesis
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
Bullish Path
Retest & Hold: A pullback into $96.7K–$100K on lighter volume that finds support would validate the breakout.
Accelerate Toward $108K: A sustained move above $102.7K with daily closes above $104K clears the way to challenge the $108K supply zone and beyond.
Bearish Risk
Rejection at $102.7K: Failure to close convincingly above peak time resistance could trigger profit-taking and a swift drop to $96.7K.
Breakdown Below $89.3K: A daily close back under the first support zone would re-trap bullish participants, risking a deeper pullback into the April range near $76K–$78K.
Is $108K or $115K Next? No one knows
Follow the momentum and Trend
BTCUSD 5/8/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you another Spot-On update to his previous callout of 2 days ago. Price did EXACTLY what he said it was going to do!
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
Bitcoin Hits $100K: Bull Run IgnitesWhat Tariff Shock? Bitcoin Surges Past $100K as Market Recovery Continues
The cryptocurrency market has been making headlines again as Bitcoin (BTC) surges past the $100,000 mark, signaling a robust recovery and potentially the start of a new bull cycle. In an environment marked by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating central bank policies, Bitcoin’s remarkable resurgence has captured the attention of retail investors, institutional participants, and financial analysts alike.
This article delves into multiple facets of Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, including its recent rebound after a sharp drop, the role of whales in fueling the push toward $100K, the realized cap hitting a record high, and whether aggressive profit-taking by investors signifies a local top. Additionally, we’ll explore the implications of Bitcoin's return to $100K and why it hints at a "significant price move" that could shape the broader financial landscape.
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Bitcoin Rebounds After Sharp Decline: The $100K Push
Bitcoin’s journey to $100,000 has been anything but smooth. After experiencing a sharp correction earlier in the year, many market participants feared that the cryptocurrency's bull run was over. However, Bitcoin's ability to rebound from its lows with renewed vigor has defied expectations.
Whales Drive the Rally
One key factor behind Bitcoin’s resurgence is the activity of "whales," large-scale investors who hold significant amounts of BTC. On-chain data reveals that whales have been accumulating Bitcoin during periods of lower prices, effectively acting as a stabilizing force during market downturns. By reducing liquidity in the market and concentrating their holdings, whales have created conditions conducive to a price surge.
In addition, whale wallets have been observed transferring large sums of Bitcoin out of exchanges and into cold storage, signaling a long-term bullish outlook. This withdrawal pattern reduces the supply of Bitcoin available for trading, increasing upward pressure on the price.
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Realized Cap Hits Record High: A Bullish Signal
Another notable development supporting Bitcoin's rally is its realized capitalization (realized cap) hitting an all-time high. Unlike market capitalization, which multiplies the total supply of Bitcoin by the current price, the realized cap calculates the value of each Bitcoin at the price it was last moved. This metric provides a clearer picture of the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders.
The realized cap reaching a record high indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin has changed hands at higher price levels, reflecting increased investor confidence. This metric aligns with the narrative of accumulation, as both retail and institutional investors appear to be buying Bitcoin at higher prices in anticipation of future gains.
Accumulation Continues
On-chain analytics reveal that accumulation trends have persisted throughout Bitcoin's recovery. Wallet addresses holding between 1 and 10 BTC have grown substantially, showing that smaller investors are also entering the market. This broad-based accumulation not only adds to Bitcoin's bullish momentum but also reduces volatility by distributing supply across a wider range of participants.
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Profit-Taking and Local Top Concerns
While Bitcoin's surge past $100,000 has been met with enthusiasm, some analysts caution that aggressive profit-taking by investors could signal a local top. Short-term holders, in particular, have been selling their Bitcoin to lock in gains, as evidenced by the increasing Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
Signs of a Local Top?
A high SOPR indicates that investors are realizing profits at a significant rate, which often coincides with price corrections. However, it’s important to note that profit-taking is a natural part of any market cycle and does not necessarily signal the end of a bull run. In fact, periods of consolidation and minor corrections can strengthen the foundation for a more sustainable rally.
Market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has also entered the "Greed" zone, suggesting that bullish enthusiasm may be running high. Historically, extreme greed has preceded short-term pullbacks, making it crucial for investors to remain cautious.
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New Bull Cycle? Bitcoin’s Return to $100K Hints at Significant Price Move
Bitcoin’s return to the $100,000 milestone has rekindled hopes of a new bull cycle, with analysts pointing to several factors that support this narrative. The cryptocurrency market has historically moved in cycles, driven by supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and technological advancements. The current environment appears to align with the early stages of a new bull phase.
Institutional Adoption and Macro Tailwinds
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown exponentially over the past few years. Major financial institutions, including hedge funds, pension funds, and publicly traded companies, have embraced Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a store of value. This influx of institutional capital has not only validated Bitcoin’s role as a legitimate asset class but also provided a steady source of demand.
Moreover, macroeconomic tailwinds such as high inflation, declining confidence in fiat currencies, and geopolitical instability have enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as a decentralized, non-sovereign asset. Central banks’ monetary policies, including quantitative easing and low interest rates, have further eroded the purchasing power of traditional currencies, driving investors toward Bitcoin.
Supply Shock and Halving Cycles
Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its halving cycles play a crucial role in its price dynamics. The most recent halving in 2024 reduced the block reward for miners, effectively decreasing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. This supply shock, coupled with growing demand, has historically preceded significant price rallies.
On-chain data shows that long-term holders, who typically accumulate Bitcoin during bear markets, are now distributing their holdings during this bull phase. This redistribution of supply suggests that a new wave of investors is entering the market, further fueling the rally.
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What’s Next for Bitcoin?
As Bitcoin continues to defy expectations, the question on everyone’s mind is: What’s next? While predicting Bitcoin’s price movements with precision is challenging, several scenarios could play out in the near term.
Scenario 1: Sustained Bull Run
If accumulation trends persist and institutional interest continues to grow, Bitcoin could maintain its upward trajectory, potentially reaching new all-time highs. Key resistance levels to watch include $120,000 and $150,000, which could serve as psychological barriers for further price appreciation.
Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction
A short-term correction is always a possibility, especially given the aggressive profit-taking observed in recent weeks. However, such corrections are often healthy for the market, allowing for consolidation and setting the stage for more sustainable growth.
Scenario 3: Macro-Driven Volatility
External factors, such as changes in monetary policy, regulatory developments, or geopolitical events, could introduce volatility to the market. While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of macroeconomic challenges, it remains sensitive to major news events.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin’s surge past $100,000 marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, signaling a robust recovery and the potential start of a new bull cycle. Driven by whale activity, record-high realized capitalization, and persistent accumulation, Bitcoin has defied skeptics and reasserted its dominance as the leading digital asset.
While concerns about a local top and profit-taking are valid, the broader trends suggest that Bitcoin is preparing for a significant price move. Whether this rally leads to sustained growth or faces temporary setbacks, one thing is clear: Bitcoin remains a transformative force in the financial world, offering a decentralized, inflation-resistant alternative to traditional assets.
As we look ahead, the combination of institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and Bitcoin’s unique monetary policy positions it for continued success. For investors and enthusiasts, the journey to $100,000 and beyond is more than just a milestone—it’s a testament to the enduring promise of blockchain technology and the future of decentralized finance.
BTC: Bulls in Charge, Set for Post - Pullback SurgeJudging from the technical indicators of the BTC trading chart, the price of Bitcoin has shown an upward trend in the K - line pattern recently, forming multiple positive candles, indicating strong buying pressure. Today, a long positive candle appeared, breaking through the previous high, which shows that the bullish sentiment is soaring.
On the hourly chart, the MACD is diverging upwards with both the fast and slow lines above the zero - axis. The RSI is approaching the overbought zone, suggesting a possible pullback. The EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are in a bullish arrangement, supporting the upward trend.
Overall, for the general trading direction, it is advisable to continue taking a bullish approach. In the short term, the price may fluctuate. If it stabilizes at 98,500 after a pullback, it is expected to reach the 100,000 mark.
BTCUSD
buy@98,000-99,000
tp:100,000-101,000
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Bitcoin's 2024 Cycle Top: 3 Peaks and a Domed HouseTops are never easy to call. The Bitcoin cycle top won't be the same as the previous one. It appears that the cycle tops so far are:
The gods are rotating all the classic patterns
- 2017 Cycle Top: Classic Blow Off Top.
- 2021 Cycle Top: Double Top.
We posit that the current Bitcoin macro cycle will end early and December 17th, 2024 at 108K was Bitcoin's Cycle Top.
The topping pattern this cycle will be 3 Peaks and a Domed House
Reasons
- It's Bitcoin. An 80 vol asset. It can do anything which is actually a feature.
- Did you really think Trump cared about Bitcoin? Thanks for your votes, and he gave you 100K. You're welcome.
- No Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Imagine thinking it will be passed by Congress.
- MSTR DCA price is a target at $62K is a taret.
- Bitcoin ETF buyers think it will be UP ONLY for them? They need to experience a large bear market shakeout and start calling Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme to truely earned their stripes.