BTCUSD trade ideas
BTC WILL CRUSH. BTC ENTRY POINTAs we predicted on our last Analysis BTC exactly reacted and went the direction we wants.
So now if BTC first rejected from 106100-106700, Then we will see a opportunity to go short until 102k. If BTC didn't not respect 106100-106700, And went up with high volume then more likely reject from 107800-108500 above breaker FVG, From there we can go short only if we got rejected.
NOTE: we should wait for the confirmation, The confirmation will be Rejection from those two area.
Analysis: 1H
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
From K1 to K3,
It is a three soldiers advancing pattern,
It close below the uptrend line and the neck line of a potential double top pattern.
It seems that a short-term bear run will fall to test 102K area.
I will try to buy it there if the following candles couldn’t close below 0.618fib line.
On the other hand,
If K4 return back upon the neck line immediately,
K3 will be a fake down and the following candles will keep climbing up to test 112K area.
Short-106318/Stop-107318/Target-102188
BITCOIN (BTC/USD) – BREAKDOWN FROM THE CHANNEL! WHAT’S NEXT?Hey traders! 🧠
Today’s BTC/USD price action is sending a strong technical signal – price has broken down from the ascending channel, potentially marking the start of a deeper correction. Currently sitting at $106,200, with a daily drop of -1.49%.
🔍 Here’s what I’m seeing:
📉 Uptrend break – bears might be taking control.
🛑 Immediate support: $104,000.
🔼 Resistance ahead: $109,351 – reclaiming this is key for any bullish recovery.
📊 Watching closely whether BTC re-enters the channel or moves toward lower support (~$100K or below).
💡 My current plan:
If $104K holds, we could see a bounce. If not, prepare for a potential deeper dip. A return above $109K would be a bullish sign and could trigger renewed momentum.
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BTC/USD – Double Top Breakdown Signals Bearish Wave- 4H chart. 🧨
🔍 Chart Analysis:
🟢 Recent Price Action:
Bitcoin formed a double top pattern near the Recent All-Time High (ATH) 📈 — a strong bearish signal 🔔.
A trendline break occurred right after the second peak, confirming potential weakness ⚠️.
🟠 Supply Zone:
Price re-entered a previous supply zone (resistance area) and failed to hold above it 🧱 — indicating sellers are active again.
🔵 EMA 70 (Blue Line):
The price has dropped below the 70 EMA, signaling momentum shift from bullish to bearish 📉.
🔴 STOP LOSS ZONE:
Positioned above 110,555 🚫 — risk level for this short setup if bulls reclaim control.
🟡 Bearish Pathway (Expected Move):
Price may retest the broken zone 🔁.
Followed by a sharp drop to the 1st support near $101,503 🎯.
Confirmed by large bearish volume spikes 📊.
💥 Trade Idea:
Entry: Near 106,000 (on retest of supply zone).
Stop Loss: Above 110,555 🔺.
Target: $101,500 🎯.
Risk/Reward Ratio: 🔥 Favorable setup for swing short sellers!
📛 Pattern Breakdown:
⚠️ Double Top = Reversal Signal.
🔻 Trendline Break = Shift in Market Structure.
🧊 Supply Zone Rejection = Bearish Confirmation.
BTC – Symmetrical Triangle Tightening on 4H🔷 CRYPTOCAP:BTC is coiling up inside a symmetrical triangle on the 4H timeframe — a classic setup where volatility often follows consolidation.
⚡ With price tightening, traders should stay sharp. A breakout could ignite the next directional move — either way, momentum is loading.
📉 Breakdown? Expect some shakeout.
📈 Breakout? Eyes on key resistance zones ahead.
Let’s see which side wins the squeeze. 👀
BTC on the way to 113k BTC keeps showing strength.
The price is building value above the pmProfile and it rejected the pwPOC. This will cause a FTR draw (failure to rotate liquidity grab) at the 112k high.
I am using the fib expansion levels for the previous week candle to project some targets for the price discovery.
It seems like the 120k direction is still on the table. 113k next.
One last trip to the clouds One final rally approaching for BTC in my opinion, targeting only a tad more than the last ATH, just ‘to say we did it’
Passing 100k again is and was a big deal. It shows btc is here to stay. Conversations around the world are still taking place about this landmark to new/novice investors.
I am on board with a huge correction to sub 100k levels. But I forsee one last horrah before its time for a mini crypto winter.
The 4 HR RSI says a correction over due
But the current double top needs to have a width that is closer to the last double top.
Buy now, hold until new ATH hits by even a dollar, then short like youre martin
I Think Its Time For Bitcoin To Have Cooldown4 Houers Chart. Low Volum . Resistance on Rsi- And Macd Daily Looks Wery Heavy.
Bitcoin Support at $106,800 Retested to Determine Next Move – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?
Ali Martinez stated that BTC remains “range bound” despite today’s price drop, but added that the range’s low is the most important thing to watch. He warned that a break below the $106,800 support could trigger increased volatility, sending BTC price lower.
BTCUSD Analysis – Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) Action + Target🧭 Mirror Market Concepts (MMC) Explained
Mirror Market Concepts analyze repeating emotional and structural patterns in the market—like looking at a price “mirror” that reflects past movements into the present. Core tools include:
Mind Curve Resistance/Support
CHoCH (Change of Character)
BOS (Break of Structure)
Price Reflection Zones
These tools let us understand not just what price is doing—but why it's reacting at specific levels.
📊 Technical Breakdown of the Chart
🔹 1. Black Mind Curve Support & Resistance
The chart is framed between a rising support curve and a descending resistance curve, forming a psychological squeeze zone.
These mind curves represent subconscious institutional memory—where reactions often repeat based on historical liquidity and risk-off/on behavior.
🔹 2. Major CHoCH (Change of Character)
Price broke below a previous minor higher low, shifting sentiment from bullish to neutral/bearish.
This CHoCH happened within the mind curve boundary, signaling that we’re transitioning into a decision phase.
🔹 3. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
The BOS occurred during the recent drop, confirming sellers took temporary control.
However, price respected the lower mind curve support, which may still hold as the "mirror zone."
🔹 4. Key Compression Pattern (MMC Symmetry)
Price is forming a symmetrical wedge between the two curves, often seen in MMC just before a major explosive move.
The pattern resembles past behavior where price compressed before breaking out in either direction.
🎯 Potential Scenarios (Plotted on Chart)
📈 Bullish Path:
If BTC breaks above the descending curve + confirms above 109,000, we may see:
✅ Target 1: 111,000 (BOS retest)
✅ Target 2: 112,500–113,000 zone (previous emotional high + liquidity sweep)
📉 Bearish Path:
A breakdown below 107,000 and curve support suggests sellers regain control:
⚠️ Target 1: 105,000 (local demand zone)
⚠️ Target 2: 102,500–103,000 (full MMC retrace)
⚠️ Watchlist Considerations:
Two key economic news events (highlighted on chart) could serve as catalysts.
Wait for confirmation and volume breakout before committing to either side.
This is a textbook MMC compression pattern, and patience is key before reacting.
🧠 What Makes This an MMC Setup?
🔄 Mirror Reflection of past rallies and drops forming current wedge
🧩 Mind Curve Boundaries acting like subconscious trend guides
🔁 CHoCH + BOS sequencing for momentum shift detection
💡 Psychological memory zones holding strong reactions
📌 Summary
BTC is caught in a psychological squeeze between mind curve support and resistance.
Structure favors a coming breakout or breakdown, but confirmation is critical.
MMC tools show a high-probability setup—either toward 112K or 103K based on where the breakout happens.
📣 Community CTA (Call-to-Action):
📊 How are you trading this BTC curve compression?
💬 Share your charts, setups, or alternate views below. Let’s decode the market mirror together.
Correction ahead? Or the beginning of the next bear cycle?The bull run has been ongoing since October 2023, and we are beginning to reach the final stages. This is the final push, likely a significant one, but there is strong long-term resistance and trends around the $115,000 mark. Altcoins are starting to gain momentum, but institutions are accumulating and absorbing new supplies, putting upward pressure on Bt prices. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weak, making Bitcoin appear artificially high compared to alternative currencies, such as the Sterling and Euro, with a new all-time high roughly 15% away for GBP and only 2% for dollar.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
BTC Macro Bull Cycle – Wave 3 Target Based on Fibonacci ($200K?)This is a long-term BTCUSD (1W) chart analysis, combining macro Elliott Wave structure and technical support using Fibonacci extension levels.
The “3?” label is not placed arbitrarily — it’s derived from Fibonacci projections, extending from Wave 1 and the retracement in Wave 2. The estimated target zone near $200K aligns with the 1.618–2.618 Fibonacci extension level, often associated with Wave 3 in classical Elliott Wave theory.
Structure:
Wave 1: Peaked around $20K (2017 cycle top).
Wave 2: Corrective phase bottomed around $3–4K.
Wave 3 (current): BTC has broken prior all-time highs and is consolidating in the $60K–$70K zone — likely a re-accumulation phase before a breakout.
Key Zones:
Green boxes mark historical accumulation and support/resistance zones.
Orange circles highlight areas of consolidation and buying interest during major corrections.
The current green zone (~$60K) may act as a mid-cycle base before the next impulsive move.
Targets & Risk Management:
Upside target: $180K–$220K range (based on Fib extension).
Stop-loss zone: Below $55K, as a breakdown here may invalidate the current bullish structure.
Conservative risk management is advised.
Final Thoughts:
This analysis is grounded in historical behavior and Fibonacci logic — not just hopeful speculation. If BTC is indeed in Wave 3 of this macro cycle, the most explosive phase may still be ahead. The “3?” target is based on measurable data, not guesswork.
Is alt season still coming?Hello there!
This idea to continue my previous idea about BTC here
Then, what next?
Let's breakdown money flow in term about alt season path
1. First phase the BINANCE:BTCUSD must blow up, it mean the money goes to Bitcoin
1.5. Money flow transition, from Bitcoin euphoria to Ethereum
2. Second phase, is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin
2.5. Money flow transition, from Ethereum euphoria to big cap altcoins
3. Third phase, Big Cap altcoin with strong fundamental are going parabolic
3.5.Money flow transition to more altcoin, small cap, mid cap, whatever it is, if the fundamental good and the narrative match, it will going up.
4. Fourth phase, alt season when almost everything have high chance to prices surges, green everything.
Now, in which phase?
I think we still in First phase, but it still not complete yet.
So, I prepare to watch this sign for phase 1.5:
Bitcoin dominance. This indicator for "where the money on", if the Bitcoin dominance going down, it's a sign if the money moving slowly to another asset. (according to the path, the money will move to Ethereum)
Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index . This add on indicator for watch the sentiment from US investor (especially large institution) to Bitcoin.
Ethreum netflow . This to see how big the Ethereum netflow from exchange. You can watch and learn there.
Then, what should we do now?
Watch the sign from the BTC and ETH price, for sure with the 3 indicator above.
My prediction is bitcoin price will sideways for a while or little bit down , but the dominance will slowly going down. From recent candle, BTC make descending candle and ETH make ascending candle.
Let's wait and see!
Thankyou for reading, I hope everyone have a good day!