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BTCUSD trade ideas

Bitcoin Range complete opposite of previous - Bullish Caution Since January 2023, Bitcoin has risen to its current Value in 2 steps distinct and we sit on the 3rd step now. But this Step is so VERY different and the potential Fragility exists The chart explains this clearly. The First step was in April 2023 and saw PA descend till June and remain in range till around October that year and saw a total retrace of around -20%. Lower Range Support was Horizontal and we were just above the 0.618 Fib extension The 2nd began in March 2024, PA initially descended till May and then bounced back, remaining in range till October and saw a total retrace of around -25.6%. Lower Range Support was descending and the 1.618 Fib Extension was just below and was tested directly in the week of 5th August Both began in Q2 ( approx) and ended in Q4 and both had an approx retrace of around -23% Both were Very similar in date range, start and end. And Both were above the 618 Fib extension. This time we have entered the "Step" in December ( Q4 ) and the under laying Support is Ascending. More than that, the line of resistance is the 2.618 Fib extension. And this has led to a tricky situation really. For a Start, we are in a tight pennant. The line of Resistance above is close We do not have the time to Range and that pennant Apex is in late April. PA tends to react BEFORE we hit the APEX of triangles The Ascending support has origins in 2017 and is the same line that PA used to Bounce higher in 2021 to reach the ATH in Nov. It is strong and we do not want to loose this. But PA is Very OverBought and needs to cool off. When PA bounced of this line of Support in 2021, MACD was back down to Neutral. We are currently up high. We need to repeat what we saw in previous "Steps" and let MACD cool off. It has begun on the weekly, but only Just turned Bearish So what can we do ? What seems to be happening is that PA is managing to remain in this triangle with an ascending support and a Very tight price range. We just saw this morning that PA has once again managed to bounce off this line after a sudden drop last night. Bulls Caught it on the line and we rise again But what I have noticed is also how the Bitcoin Transaction count has lowered in the same period and maybe This is how we are managing to remain in this pattern ? Less Transactions leads to less Volatility and so we keep a more stable Price range ? Data from CRYPTOQUANT as TV does not do this metric ( wish they would ) Step 1 30 April 2023 ( Step 1 ) Transaction count was around 569K at start of that step to a Low of 445K on June 30 in Mid range Step 2 From Feb Q1 2024, ( just beofre Step 2) we saw a continually rising transaction count that led to a peak of 671K on 22nd April. The Range has already begun by this point. 541K was the range low in August Step 3, Current situation As BTC PA rose Higher, we had transaction at nearly 850K but as we approached the range high we are currently in, Transaction count dropped dramatically, to 412K on Dec 16. to a Low around 398K in Mid December. On Feb 9th ( yesterday ), we are back down to 385K Is it this Low and currently descending Transaction count that is helping to keep PA in the Tight Range ? Low Traffic will lead to less volatility but it maybe a fine line before Price Drops due to seemingly Lack on interest in the asset ? Either way, We are in a Tight Triangle, currently with a Range height of around 10K This is like a Balloon Full of Air, Getting SQUEEZED Something has to go Pop at some point. Technically, this has to be Lower and this could be pointing towards a TOP for now. Maybe we are about to repeat the 2021 pattern of ATH early in the year, retrace and go for a New ATH in Q4 For me, this seems very possible - Unless PA breaks over that 2.618 Fib line. We are under considerable and mounting pressure from the ascending Line of support Maybe that line of support is strong enough to push us through ? But be under NO illusion. Bitcoin Pa is under Huge strain right now but with strong corporate hands holding it steady, maybe...... Stay Tuned for The continuing Story of BITCOIN rise to greatness
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
February 7 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello It's a Bitcoinguide. If you have a "follower" You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections. If my analysis is helpful, Please would like one booster button at the bottom. Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart. The Nasdaq indicator will be released at 10:30. (Non-farm index) Since it is a sideways section and there are so many variables in the Nasdaq, I proceeded as safely as possible. Also, the sideways section is difficult and complicated to explain, but today, the participation rate was good, so I proceeded simply and mildly. *Red finger movement path Long position strategy (final short) 1. 96,727 dollars long position entry section / cut-off price when the green support line is broken 2. 100,445.5 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd target until the weekend After reaching the top section, switch to a short position Check the live support line and price range The first section at the top is a sideways market From the first section breakout, an upward trend can be connected. If you don't touch the first section and come down right away, the second section becomes the final long position, and the MACD dead cross imprint on the weekly chart during the weekend is the main key point. Even if it breaks through the top section and continues to rise, the dead cross may continue to press down next week, so it could be a headache. If you look at the bottom, from the current position to the sky blue support line of $98,912.5 (safe zone) and maintain it without breaking away from the bright sky blue of $92,796 at the bottom (danger zone), it would be good. You may have been surprised by the sudden decline last week due to Nasdaq and Trump, but as I explained last time, since the movement is within the expected range, it seems that the direction will be revealed to some extent after this week. I ask that you simply refer to and use my analysis so far, and I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices. You worked hard this week too. Thank you.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by BitCoinGuide