BTCUSD trade ideas
BTC Update - Called It Clean Just like I marked up - price came right into that (demand zone) and gave us the bullish reaction I expected. Zone held strong. No flinch. No cap.
Now that the higher timeframe has done its job, I'm down here on the lower timeframes hunting entries like a sniper. Patience. Precision. Letting the market walk into my trap.
IF you know, you know.
Smart Money always leaves a footprint. I just follow the trail.
#BTC #SmartMoneyConcepts #SMC #ForexTrader #CryptoTrader #PriceAction #Liquidity #Inducement #OrderBlock #RefinedEntries #LuxAlgoConfirmation #TopDownAnalysis
BTCUSD: This is a one way trip to $150k.Bitcoin is rising towards the overbought barrier on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.126, MACD = 4169.000, ADX = 23.891) and that has rearely been a problem in the past as the market tends to thrive on overbought conditions. The minimum rally it delivered after a 1W MA50 rebound (like the one it is on now) has been +100%. TP = 150,000 by the end of summer.
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The latest Bitcoin analysis strategyThe price has rebounded above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level at $102,400. The EMA trend indicators show upward divergence, with the EMA15 fast trend line continuing to act as support and extending higher, expected to provide underlying support for the candlesticks near $101,000. A bullish channel has formed on the Bollinger Bands, but the price is 受阻 (resisted) at the upper band pressure level of $106,300, increasing the probability of short-term sideways trading.
Candlestick patterns indicate the price has consistently traded at the top of the EMA trend indicators, with bullish momentum starting to contract and top-side pressure showing a clear downward shift. The MACD has continuously reduced trading volume while approaching the zero line, with DIF and DEA converging, signaling that a top divergence pattern has spread to the medium-term trend. During the Bollinger Bands' sideways phase, the upper band resistance is at $105,200, and the lower band support is at $101,800.
The latest U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, strengthening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts—a factor typically boosting risk asset performance. Additionally, the initial progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, where both sides agreed to reduce tariffs, has improved geopolitical conditions and provided further support for Bitcoin.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – 1H Quick Update🔄 Same story as yesterday : BTC remains in a clear accumulation/consolidation phase, tightly trapped between two supply zones.
🎯 Upper Bound : Around $103,800–$105,000, acting as resistance.
📉 Lower Bound : Around $101,500, holding as local demand/support.
🟩 FVG 1H zones continue to be respected, confirming this range as a battle zone between buyers and sellers.
🧠 What to Watch :
Break above $104K = Possible breakout toward $106K+.
Break below $101.5K = Could signal a deeper retrace before continuation.
⏳ Until then, it’s still range-bound → patience and wait for the breakout confirmation.
BTC/USD bearish outlookpotential rejection from an orde blocK
BTC is trading at approximately $103,551.40 at the time of the screenshot.
Technical Zones and Annotations:
OB (Order Block): Marked in grey, suggesting a possible area of institutional selling or resistance (around $105,000–$106,000).
FVG (Fair Value Gap): A gap in price that the market might come back to fill, often seen as a liquidity area.
BoS (Break of Structure): A breakout to the upside marked after a consolidation phase (red ellipse), showing a bullish structure change.
Trendline: Blue ascending trendline showing support up to the breakout point.
Target Zone: A large green area suggesting a bearish expectation (price to fall to approx. $98,444.38), indicating a short setup.
Stop-Loss Zone: Red area above the OB (~$105,852.89), marking the invalidation point of the short trade.
Trade Setup:
This appears to be a short (sell) trade setup.
Entry: Near current price (~$103,551).
Stop Loss: Just above the OB (~$105,852).
Take Profit: Around ~$98,444.
Indicators and Tools:
Tools like the rectangular boxes and lines are used to highlight zones of interest (e.g., supply/demand, order blocks).
No traditional indicators (like RSI or MACD) are visible — it's purely price action/structure-based.
Summary:
This chart shows a bearish outlook on BTC/USD based on a potential rejection from an order block after a structural shift. The trader expects price to move down to the FVG and lower liquidity zones, using structure and gaps as confluences for the trade.
BTC Bulls Defend Key Zone Eyes on $123K Breakout ExtensionBitcoin has successfully completed a breakout above the prior weekly high structure, followed by a healthy pullback which is currently unfolding into a bullish pennant formation. The key highlight is how price is retesting the neckline zone with precision, which now doubles as a strong immediate buyback zone.
The reaction from this level is already showing strong bullish momentum, with price gearing up to challenge the previous ATH. A breakout above that resistance should unlock the path toward the projected $116.5k and $123.4k targets as shown on the chart. Failure to hold the Immediate Buyback Zone opens the door toward the Strong Demand Zone, which remains a valid re-accumulation point within this bullish cycle.
Stay sharp. The structure remains intact unless the neckline fails decisively.
BITCOIN Will Go Down! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 102,528.88.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 97,324.69 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTCUSD UPDATE 15-05-2025This chart shows the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price action on the 1-hour timeframe, published on TradingView.
Key Details:
Chart Pattern: A distribution phase is visible, forming what appears to be a double or triple top pattern in a resistance zone (highlighted in yellow at the top), which typically signals potential reversal or bearish breakdown.
Current Price: Around $102,265, down by 1.22%.
Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance: Around $105,600–$105,643
Support: Around $96,000–$97,322
Bearish Projection:
The blue arrow indicates a bearish move is expected, targeting the support zone near $96,000.
This suggests a short position setup, possibly expecting profit-taking at the support zone.
Price Ranges Marked:
Red and green shaded boxes indicate stop-loss and take-profit zones respectively, with risk-reward considerations.
This chart suggests a bearish sentiment in the short term, with the analyst expecting a decline to the lower yellow zone after multiple failed attempts to break resistance.
Let me know if you want technical indicators or further analysis.
Bitcoin PullbackPrice is now moving back toward the $99,517 support – the previous breakout level that had served as resistance for much of April. A retest of this zone, ideally with a bounce, would be constructive and could confirm it as a new support. Keep in mind these levels are zones of interest, not exact lines – a wick below or above is entirely normal.
Volume has decreased during this pullback, suggesting that the move down may be more of a healthy cooldown rather than aggressive selling. RSI has also cooled off from overbought territory, giving bulls some breathing room to reload.
The trend remains bullish above the 50–day (blue) and 200–day (red) moving averages, both of which are sloping upward and stacked correctly. So far, this looks like standard consolidation after a parabolic move – not a sign of reversal.
A daily close back above $104K would suggest buyers are regaining strength. Below $99K, things could get more interesting, but for now, the structure remains intact.
May 14 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections.
If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
This is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart.
There is no separate indicator announcement today.
I conducted a brief analysis with rough movements.
The 3-hour chart MACD dead cross pressure is in progress,
and from the purple finger at the top to number 1,
it is the best short position entry section of the day,
and from the orange resistance line breakthrough, it is an upward trend.
*The 21.1K red finger at the bottom is a long-term strategy,
and if there is a rebound within the purple support line without touching the entry point,
it will rise vertically.
The short-term pattern may be broken from the 2nd section,
and it is a downward sideways movement to the bottom -> the 3rd section is the 1+4 section.
I applied it to Bitcoin as is.
This is a 30-minute chart for Bitcoin.
Since there is no Nasdaq indicator announcement, we proceeded with trend following.
In the case of Bitcoin, the 12-hour chart MACD dead cross was engraved,
and the lower Bollinger band was touched first.
On the left, with the purple finger,
101.1K long -> 104.283.2 dollar short switching
I connected the strategy as it is.
*When the blue finger moves,
It is a two-way neutral
short->long switching strategy.
1. 104.326.6 dollar short position entry section / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken
2. 103,278.1 dollar long position switching / stop loss price when green support line is broken
If the strategy is successful,
section 1 can be used as a long position re-entry section. (Purple parallel line maintenance condition)
I proceeded tightly up and down for fear of missing the entry point.
Instead, if I explain in detail,
The movement within 1 at the top and 2 at the bottom is a sideways section,
and it is a section where a trend can emerge when breaking out or breaking out.
For those who have been holding a short position since yesterday,
I think it would be good to operate with a stop loss price when breaking out of the orange resistance line, just like today's strategy.
If it comes down right away without touching the 104.3K short entry point,
the final long position is waiting in the 2nd section.
The stop loss price is the same.
If it breaks out of the bottom section today, it can be directly connected to the 3rd section at the bottom,
so those who are operating a long position should be careful.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply refer to and use my analysis,
and operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price. Please support the 4 consecutive perfect challenges
Thank you
Technical Analysis – Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1H Chart + TRADE PLANThe chart displays a symmetrical triangle pattern, which is a neutral continuation pattern often leading to a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend.
The current price action is at the apex of the triangle, suggesting an imminent breakout.
The price is currently testing the lower trendline support, with a visible weakening momentum.
Indicators Analysis:
VMC Cipher B Divergences: Showing bearish momentum with continued red wave dominance and lack of significant bullish divergence.
RSI (14): Bearish territory at 32.51, approaching oversold but no bullish divergence visible.
Money Flow Index (MFI): At 28.90, indicating weak buying pressure, leaning toward bearish continuation.
Stochastic Oscillator (14, 3, 3): In the oversold zone (1.49), which could indicate a short-term bounce is possible, but not confirmed by other indicators.
Volume:
Note that the chart mentions volume data is unavailable. Confirmation on volume spikes during breakout is essential to validate any move.
Scenarios and Targets
Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout (Less probable based on current conditions)
Break above triangle resistance (approx. 102,300 USD).
Target 1: 107,500 USD (Measured move from triangle height).
Target 2: 115,500 USD (Extended target based on historical breakout levels and Fibonacci projection).
Confirmation needed: Clear breakout with high volume and RSI recovery above 50.
Scenario 2 – Bearish Breakdown (More probable currently)
Break below triangle support (approx. 101,300 USD).
Immediate Target 1: 97,000 USD (Measured move from triangle height).
Target 2: 93,500 USD (Previous major support zone).
Confirmation needed: Hourly candle close below support zone and breakdown with increased volume, RSI falling below 30, Stochastic remaining oversold.
Trading Plan
Bias: Bearish unless invalidated by bullish breakout confirmation.
Entry Strategy:
Aggressive short entry: On hourly candle close below 101,300 USD.
Conservative short entry: On confirmation below 101,000 USD with volume spike.
Stop-Loss:
Above 102,500 USD, invalidating the bearish thesis.
Take-Profit Zones:
TP1: 97,000 USD
TP2: 93,500 USD
Risk Management:
Max risk per trade: 1-2% of portfolio.
Monitor closely for fakeouts at the apex; symmetrical triangles are prone to false moves.
Alternative Strategy:
If bullish breakout occurs above 102,500 USD with RSI reclaiming 50, switch to a long setup with:
Stop Loss: Below 101,000 USD
TP1: 107,500 USD
TP2: 115,500 USD
Current indicators, price behavior, and chart pattern favor a bearish scenario.
Key to execution is waiting for confirmed breakout direction with volume confirmation, especially near the critical apex zone.
Stay adaptive, as symmetrical triangles can break either way, and false breakouts are common.
BITCOIN is going to 250K easily and even higherHey what's up traders here is my thesis why 250k is in play and not that difficult to reach.
First of all the game has changed. It's not anymore driven by stacking more BTC by you or me. It's institutional game now. I will give you some numbers for perspective.
As you can see here - individuals selling why big boys buying.
Supply and demand game.
The will ever be only 21 Million BTC. By the way Your goal should be to own at least 2.1 BTC. There is only 165 000 BTC is mined in a year - Now watch the demand.
ETF s - 500K BTC bought last year
Corporations (MSTR, Metaplanet) - 250 BTC
They already bought more than 3 years supply now we got
Goverment buys - This year could buy couple hundred thousands
Where these bitcoins will come from, it could come only from people who will be willing to sell which is in higher prices.
Is economy playing role ?
Yes , overall it can help, if we have no recession , Tariffs etc.. but overall it will not stop or affect adoption. Look in to 2020 lows it was Best Buy during the covid, same like 2023 low - Best Buy when Russia invaded Ukraine , Recently Tariffs fear and it was also great buy at 75K.
Global liquidity - M2 money supply
Bitcoin is driven by 4 years cycles affected by halvings but mainly by M2 money supply which is also expanding in the 4 years cycles to simplify - more central banks printing fiat is devaluated and BTC is rising and they are now printing a lot and they will print even more because US has to pay 9 trillion interest on their debt soon. That is why the trump is forcing FED Powell to cut rates.
Available BTC on exchanges is still draining if these big players continue with this pace it will be all gone soon.
So here you have it - There is more demand than supply for many future years driven by institutional adoption, governments and global liquidity.
BITCOIN 's 'Final 6 months rally' kickstarts the Altseason!This isn't the first time we show you this chart but it couldn't be more relevant than today. We have established on previous analyses how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has most likely started the final rally of its Cycle, historically the parabolic rally of the last 6 months of the Bull Cycle that ends with its Top.
The addition of today's analysis is that with Bitcoin Dominance (orange trend-line) approaching its 8-year Lower Highs trend-line, this 'Final 6 months rally' of BTC is what technically also starts the Altseason. This is when lower cap coins see massive gains compared to the high cap ones.
At the same time, we get one more confirmation of why a $150k BTC Target is realistic, as by the end of 2025, this price would still be on the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the 8-year Fib Channel Up, a rather 'bad case' scenario based on this pattern.
So what do you think? Will BTC's Final 6 months rally spark a massive Altseason too? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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