BTCUSD Analysis Using MMC – Bearish Rejection & Target🔷 Introduction:
Bitcoin is showing classic Market Maker manipulation at work—volume compression, false breakouts, support-resistance flips, and a fading rally under a well-defined descending curve.
This post offers a deep dive into the true intentions of smart money behind recent price actions, helping traders avoid traps and align with institutional moves.
🔎 Detailed Breakdown of Chart Structure:
🧱 1. Volume Contraction Zone – The Calm Before the Storm
📅 Period: May 13–18
Price consolidates within a symmetrical triangle pattern.
Volume steadily decreases as price tightens – a sign that market makers are accumulating positions while keeping volatility low.
This low-volume phase creates uncertainty for retail traders, shaking out weak hands and building a base for a deceptive breakout.
🔍 MMC Insight: Market Makers reduce volatility to absorb liquidity without alerting the market to their accumulation. This builds energy for a manipulated move.
📌 2. False Breakout to Previous Target Zone (~$110,000)
📅 May 20–23
A sudden bullish impulse takes price to the previous target zone, marked as a key area of historical liquidity.
Retail traders enter late long positions at this stage, anticipating further breakout.
🎯 But instead:
Price swiftly rejects from this level, forming long upper wicks and bearish engulfing candles.
This move is a liquidity sweep, where smart money offloads positions to late buyers.
🔍 MMC Insight: Institutions engineer a breakout to bait traders, only to dump into the momentum they create.
🔁 3. SR Interchange (Support Flips to Resistance)
📅 May 27–June 2
Former support around $104,000 – $105,000 is broken and then retested from below.
Price attempts to reclaim it, but fails—each touch results in rejection.
This confirms the area has flipped to resistance, aligning with MMC’s SR Interchange Rule.
📉 Significance: This zone now acts as a control point where market makers defend short positions.
🚫 4. Candle Rejection Area – Curved Trendline Resistance
A visually defined curved resistance line caps each rally, suggesting consistent seller presence.
Recent candles show clear rejection wicks and small-bodied candles at this level—classic distribution behavior.
Market is compressing under this trendline, hinting at an imminent breakdown.
🔍 MMC Insight: Curved trendlines show passive sell pressure where institutions repeatedly cap price in preparation for a drive lower.
📉 5. Next Target & Volume Burst Area: $101,000 – $102,000
This zone is crucial due to:
Presence of imbalance (inefficiency) left from previous bullish moves.
Likely stop loss clusters from retail long traders.
Historical high-volume node suggesting pending revisit for order rebalancing.
🟨 Yellow Zone = Volume Burst Area: Expected to act as a magnet for price due to liquidity concentration.
🧠 Psychology of the Trap:
📈 Retail Bias: “Bullish triangle breakout means more upside.”
🧠 Institutional Plan: “Use that belief to create exit liquidity, then reverse.”
This is textbook MMC manipulation:
Contract volume to build positions.
Break out to bait liquidity.
Reverse at supply.
Sell into rejection zones.
Trap traders at SR flips.
Drive price to reclaim liquidity at lower targets.
📊 Strategy Plan:
🔻 Bearish Bias Setup:
Entry Zone: $105,200 – $106,000 (candle rejection area)
SL: Above $106,800 (above supply curve)
TP1: $103,000
TP2: $101,000
TP3 (optional): $99,000 for deeper flush
🔁 Flip Bullish if:
Price reclaims $107,000 with momentum and closes above the curve.
Watch for volume confirmation and bullish SMC patterns (e.g., BOS + FVG fill).
⚠️ Risk Management & Notes:
Trade with 1–2% max risk per position.
Let confirmations play out (don't preempt rejection).
Watch U.S. data releases this week (highlighted on chart) – potential volatility triggers.
📌 Conclusion:
Bitcoin’s current behavior is a masterclass in market structure manipulation. Understanding MMC lets us:
Avoid false breakouts
Align with institutional intentions
Trade with probability, not emotion
Expect lower prices unless $106,800 is cleanly broken. The path of least resistance currently points downward toward liquidity zones.
