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BTCUSD trade ideas

BITCOIN Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) formation, having consolidated for almost a month since the May 22 All Time High (ATH). What makes the bullish potential even stronger is that it is rising after making a Double Bottom on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since October 10 2024. Given that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up and the 1D MA50 is acting as its natural support trend-line, the Cup and Handle can provide a short-term Target on its 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $122000. On the long-term the Channel Up still has the potential to lead it much higher. So do you think that 122k is achievable after this Cup and Handle making double bounce on the 1D MA50? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
Possible descending triangle, likely will break to downside.Despite Bitcoin (BTC) maintaining a price above $100,000 for several weeks now, it is clearly being supported by institutional buyers propelling the market. This is very bullish for the long term; however, BTC does need to correct in order to grow further. Volume continues to drop, and as soon as institutional buyers take a break, the price could crash. Given that this cycle has introduced new market players, ETFs, and considering the current economic climate, a decline of over 60% down to its support level of $44,000 seems likely in the next year. We all know how it goes: when Bitcoin goes through tough times, it can seem like it’s dead, and that could be the best time to buy. In the long run, if you're dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and have no intention of selling, I am confident that BTC will reach $250,000 in the next cycle, if not $500,000. However, it must correct to strengthen the lower supports and flush out over-leveraged traders. Remember the saying: "When the tide goes out, we see who is swimming naked." This will happen again; it's Bitcoin!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by Discombobulate1
when Jerome says spike, the markets asks how low/high"Watch what they do, but also how they say it." In the high-stakes world of central banking, few things move markets like the subtle wording of a Fed statement, But beyond the headlines and soundbites, one market absorbs this information faster—and with greater clarity—than almost any other: the bond market. 💬 What Is "Fed Speak"? "Fed speak" refers to the nuanced and often deliberately vague language used by U.S. Federal Reserve officials when communicating policy expectations. It includes: FOMC statements Dot plot projections Press conferences Individual speeches from Fed officials nerdy tip: the Fed aims to influence expectations without committing to specific outcomes, maintaining flexibility while steering market psychology. 📈 The Bond Market as a Decoder The bond market, particularly the U.S. Treasury market, is where real-time interpretation of Fed policy plays out. Here's how it typically reacts: 1. Short-Term Yields (2Y, 3M) = Fed Expectation Barometer These are the most sensitive to near-term interest rate expectations. If the Fed sounds hawkish (more rate hikes), short-term yields jump. If dovish (hinting cuts), they fall. At the May 7, 2025 FOMC meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y) experienced a modest but clear reaction: Just before the release, yields were hovering around 3.79%. In the first hour following the 2:00 PM ET (20:00 UTC+2) statement, the yield ticked up by approximately +8 basis points, temporarily reaching about 3.87%. Later that day, it eased back to around 3.79%, ending the day roughly unchanged—a sharp, immediate spike followed by a reversion. 2. Long-Term Yields (10Y, 30Y) = Growth + Inflation Expectations Longer-dated yields reflect how the market sees the economy unfolding over time. After a Fed speech: Rising long-term yields = stronger growth/inflation expected Falling yields = fears of recession, disinflation, or policy over-tightening 3. The Yield Curve = Market's Policy Verdict One of the best tools to read the bond market's verdict is the yield curve—specifically, the spread between 10Y and 2Y yields. Steepening curve → Market thinks growth is picking up (Fed may be behind the curve) Flattening or Inversion → Market believes the Fed is too aggressive, risking a slowdown or recession 📉 Example: After Jerome Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech in 2022, the 2Y-10Y spread inverted deeply—markets were pricing in recession risks despite a strong Fed tone. 🧠 Why Traders Must Watch Bonds After Fed Speak 🪙 FX Traders: Higher yields = stronger USD (carry trade advantage) Falling yields = weaker USD (lower return for holding) 📈 Equity Traders: Rising yields = pressure on tech/growth stocks (higher discount rates) Falling yields = relief rally in risk assets 📊 Macro Traders: The MOVE Index (bond volatility) often spikes around FOMC events Forward guidance shifts = big rotation opportunities (e.g., bonds > gold > dollar) (BONUS NERDY TIP) 🔍 How to Analyze Fed Speak Through Bonds ✅ Step 1: Watch the 2Y Yield First responder to new rate expectations. ✅ Step 2: Check the Fed Funds Futures Compare market pricing pre- and post-statement. ✅ Step 3: Look at Yield Curve Movement Steepening or inversion? That’s the market’s macro take. ✅ Step 4: Track TLT or 10Y Yield on Your Chart Bond ETFs or Treasury yields reveal sentiment instantly. 🧭 Final Nerdy Thought : Bonds React First, Talk Later When the Fed speaks, don't just read the words. Read the yields. The bond market is often the first to interpret what the Fed really means—and the first to price in what comes next. So next FOMC meeting, instead of watching only Powell’s facial expressions or CNBC pundits, open a chart of the 2Y and 10Y. That’s where the smart money’s listening. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile courtesy of : @TradingView
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Bitcoin Bounce & Breakout PlayChart Analysis: 🔹 Support Holding Strong: BTC is respecting a key support area (~$105,600), which previously acted as resistance (marked by recent ATH). 🔹 EMA 70 (Blue Line): Price is hovering above the EMA, adding bullish confirmation. 🔹 Bullish Projection Path: The chart shows a projected bullish move toward the sell zone near $113,200 – $113,300, representing a potential 4.4% gain from the breakout. 🔹 Key Zones: Support Zone: $105,600 Supply Zone: $100,500 Sell Zone (TP Zone): $113,200+ 📌 Outlook: If BTC breaks and holds above the resistance (~$107,000), a strong upward rally could follow. Entry near support or on breakout, with tight risk management, offers a favorable risk/reward. ✅ Entry Options: Breakout Entry: Trigger: Break and close above $107,200 Confirmation: Retest and hold above the breakout zone Entry: $107,300 – $107,500 Support Bounce Entry: Trigger: Pullback to support zone (~$105,600) with bullish reversal candle Entry: $105,600 – $105,800 🎯 Target Zones (TP): TP1: $110,400 (minor resistance) TP2: $113,200 – $113,300 (major sell zone) TP3 (aggressive): $114,000+ 🔻 Stop Loss (SL): For breakout entry: SL below $106,200 For bounce entry: SL below $105,200 or $104,800 (structure break) 📈 Risk–Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 to 1:3+ depending on entry and target 🧠 Trade Management: Move SL to breakeven after hitting TP1 Partial profit booking at TP1 Trail remaining with manual or dynamic SL (e.g., below EMA or recent low) ⚠️ Risk Notes: Avoid chasing price without breakout confirmation Watch for fakeouts and heavy selling near TP zones Adjust position size based on your risk tolerance
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by KingProTrader
107.6-107.8 and 109-110KMorning folks, So, position taking stage is done, now let's take a look at targets. In general we have a sequence of a few targets, starting from 107.6-107.8, 109-110, 113 and 116K. But in current situation I would watch for only first two. Daily overbought is around 114, so 116K target seems too far. 113K is possible, but with rather extended downside action last week, it seems as very optimistic. That's why, more or less base case seems around 109-110K, while the easiest target is 107.6-107.8K. So, once the first target will be reached - think about partial profit booking, if you want to continue trading. Say, take off 30-40% and move stops to the breakeven on the rest.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
BTC “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitics Could Delay ItBitcoin’s “Golden Cross” Looms, but Geopolitical Shocks Could Delay the Breakout Deep dive into price action, derivatives, on-chain data, and the tug-of-war between Middle-East risk and crypto bull-run momentum ________________________________________ Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed 13. Disclaimers ________________________________________ 1. Executive Summary • Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a tight $103 K–$108 K band, unable to confirm a breakout as Middle-East tensions push investors into hedging mode. • A Golden Cross—the 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day—could flash within 10 trading sessions, historically adding +37 % median upside over the subsequent 90 days. • Options flow has flipped decisively toward puts, with the 25-delta skew hitting –10 %, its most bearish since the FTX collapse, signaling short-term anxiety even as long-term bets remain bullish. • On-chain metrics (exchange balances at six-year lows, HODLer supply at all-time highs) reveal structural demand; Glassnode notes a 656 % cycle advance despite a trillion-dollar market cap. • Analysts’ upside targets range from $140 K (Q3) to $270 K (October) and even $229 K based on the Golden Cross fractal. Yet a clean break of $104 K support opens room to $97 K first. ________________________________________ 2. Scene-Setter: BTC at $105 K in a World on Edge Bitcoin entered 2025 with a blistering rally—spot ETFs hoovered nearly 200 K coins in four months, miners sold aggressively into strength, and macro tailwinds (Fed easing, USD weakness) fueled risk appetite. Then two macro curveballs hit: 1. Sticky U.S. core inflation revived “higher-for-longer” rate fears. 2. Israel–Iran hostilities spooked global markets, sending Brent crude to $76 and sparking a dash for USD liquidity. BTC, once heralded as “digital gold,” behaved like a high-beta tech stock: it slipped 7 % in 48 hours, tagging $103,200 before bargain hunters stepped in. As of this writing, price sits near $105,800—right on the 100-hour SMA. Whether we escape the range depends on which force proves stronger: geopolitical dread or the long-term structural bid. ________________________________________ 3. Technical Spark: What a Golden Cross Really Means A Golden Cross occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA-50) crosses above the 200-day (SMA-200). In Bitcoin’s 14-year history, we have logged nine such events: Year Days to Cross 90-Day Return 180-Day Return 2013 51 +88 % +202 % 2015 73 +34 % +67 % 2019 46 +193 % +262 % 2020 38 +77 % +112 % 2023 59 +29 % +48 % Median 90-day gain: +37 % Median drawdown post-cross: –12 % We are ~$700 shy of triggering the cross (SMA-50 at $97.9 K, SMA-200 at $98.1 K and rising). Assuming volatility stays muted, the lines converge within two weeks, potentially firing a widely watched buy signal. But remember: the cross is lagging; smart traders anticipate, not react. ________________________________________ 4. Price Action: From $103 K Dip to $106.8 K Hurdle Key intraday levels (Kraken feed): • Support 1: $104,000 – prior weekly low + bullish order-block • Support 2: $101,200 – 0.786 Fib retrace of the Feb–Mar impulse • Bear Pivot: $97,000 – 200-day EMA + high-confluence volume node • Resistance 1: $106,800 – last week’s swing high; three failed probes • Resistance 2: $108,500 – May monthly open • Bull Pivot: $113,000 – neckline of the March distribution range Monday’s bounce broke a declining trend-line from $110 K, printing a higher low—constructive, yet bulls require a daily close >$106.8 K to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. ________________________________________ 5. Options Market: A Sudden Lurch Toward Puts Deribit data (largest BTC options venue): • Put/Call Ratio: 0.62 last Friday → 0.91 today • 25-Delta Skew (1-month): –10 %, lowest since Nov-2022 • Max-Pain for April 26 expiry: $104 K (huge open interest) Translation: traders rushed to buy protective puts as Iran war headlines crossed. Market-makers, short those puts, delta-hedged by shorting spot or perpetual futures, adding downward pressure—classic gamma feedback loop. Yet term structure remains contango; June and September IVs price higher topside. Institutions appear to sell near-dated panic, accumulate long-dated calls—a bullish medium-term stance. ________________________________________ 6. Macro Overhang: Why Israel–Iran Turmoil Matters to Bitcoin 1. Risk-Off Correlation: Despite “digital gold” narratives, BTC’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq-100 sits at 0.64; equities slide → crypto follows. 2. USD Liquidity Drain: War premium lifts oil, stoking inflation and forcing the Fed to delay cuts; higher real yields pressure non-yielding assets. 3. Regulatory Optics: Heightened national-security chatter emboldens lawmakers keen to scrutinize crypto, a perceived sanctions-evasion channel. 4. Regional Flows: The Middle-East hosts some of the largest sovereign-wealth pools; risk aversion could pause their crypto allocations. 5. Hence, every missile headline becomes a volatility catalyst. Still, flash-risk events fade quickly if energy supply stays intact, offering windows for BTC to re-assert its secular trend. ________________________________________ 7. On-Chain Pulse: 656 % Cycle Gain, Yet Supply Is Tighter Than 2021 Glassnode frames Bitcoin’s ongoing bull as “one of the most explosive relative to market cap gravity.” Highlights: • Cycle Return: 656 % from the $14 K November-2022 bottom—impressive given the asset is now >$2 T in free-float value, dwarfing 2017’s sub-$100 B base. • Exchange Balances: Just 2.02 M BTC on centralized venues—13-year low. • Realized Price (short-term holders): $92,500—suggests marginal buyers remain well in profit. • Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow: At 275 K BTC/day vs. 2021’s 550 K—implying HODLers are less willing to spend. Put simply: even after a seven-fold rally, supply scarcity persists. ________________________________________ 8. Mining Fundamentals: Difficulty Eases, Margins Improve The April 20 adjustment saw difficulty dip 1.2 %, the first contraction since January. Why it matters: • Post-Halving Breathing Room: Block subsidy fell to 1.5625 BTC; a difficulty rollback cushions miner profit margins, lowering forced selling risk. • Hashrate Plateau: Network hashrate hovers at 640 EH/s, only 3 % off the ATH—miners remain confident. • Transaction Fees: Average fee per block = 0.37 BTC, still elevated by historical standards thanks to BRC-20 activity. Miners thus appear cash-flow stable, reducing downside pressure on spot markets compared to previous post-halving eras. ________________________________________ 9. Corporate Treasuries: The Quiet, Sticky Bid Since MicroStrategy cracked the dam, 68 public companies now hold BTC on balance sheets, totaling 412,000 coins (~$43 B). Recent newcomers: Company Purchase Date BTC Added Avg Cost SemiconX Feb-2025 2,500 $94,800 Nordic Logistics Mar-2025 800 $98,200 Atlantech Energy Apr-2025 1,200 $101,500 Traits of corporate treasuries: • Long-Dated Liabilities: Align with Bitcoin’s four-year halving cadence. • Low Turnover: None of the 68 have sold core holdings despite 80 % drawdowns in 2022. • Regulatory Transparency: SEC filings broadcast purchases, inviting copycat demand. This sticky bid stabilizes spot markets during macro squalls. ________________________________________ 10. Targets & Scenarios: $97 K Downside vs. $229 K Upside Bearish Path (30 % probability) • Trigger: Israel–Iran broadens, Fed signals no cuts in 2025. • Price Action: Break $104 K, bulls capitulate at $97 K (200-day). • Depth: Could wick to $88–90 K (0.618 retrace) if macro gloom persists. Base Case (50 % probability) • Trigger: Skirmishes contained; oil cools, Fed cuts twice by December. • Price Action: Golden Cross confirms, BTC grinds to $128 K by September. • Highs: $140 K tap as ETF inflows resume. Bullish Path (20 % probability) • Trigger: Middle-East cease-fire + ETF FOMO round two + dovish Fed pivot. • Fractals: Prior Golden-Cross extensions averaged +120 % at extreme. • Price Action: $150 K by summer, $229 K (Fib 2.618 from 2022 low) by year-end. • Blow-Off: $270 K October spike before the next cyclical bear begins. ________________________________________ 11. Strategy Playbook for Traders & Investors Horizon Bias Instruments Risk Management Intraday (0–48 h) Range scalp $104–$107 K Perp futures (5× max), options gamma scalping Hard stop $103 K; position <1 % equity Swing (2–8 wks) Buy pullbacks ahead of Golden Cross Spot, dated futures roll, 1-month $110 K calls Stop $97 K daily close; size 5–10 % Position (3–6 mo) Accumulate for $140–150 K target Spot, June/Sept call spreads ($120/150) Hedge via 25 % put collar Long-Term (1–4 yr) Maintain core stash; ignore noise Cold storage, DCA Re-balance only when price doubles Optional hedge: Long Gold / Short BTC ratio spread as a geopolitical shock absorber; ratio 1.3 currently, mean-reverts to 1.1 post-crises. ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion: Delayed, Not Derailed Bitcoin stands at a crossroads: a textbook Golden Cross beckons, ETF inflows smolder, miners relax, and corporate treasuries drip-feed demand. Yet war headlines and a cautious options market act as sandbags on the balloon. History says macro shocks slow, not stop secular bull cycles. Unless Middle-East conflict strangles global liquidity or the Fed slams the brakes far harder than priced, BTC’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. Expect turbulence, embrace risk controls—but don’t mistake a weather delay for a busted engine. ________________________________________ 13. Disclaimers This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investing involves substantial risk; never invest more than you can afford to lose.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
Bullish bounce?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 101,082.81 1st Support: 94,030.59 1st Resistance: 110,969.18 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by ICmarkets
6/15/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a magnificent Full Top-Down Analysis, breaking down the market in its simplest form. _SnipeGoat_ _TheeCandleReadingGURU_ #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheeSnipeGoat
Bitcoin Update June 15th 2025📊 Summary: Bitcoin leaning slightly bearish short term, but trendline still intact ... 🟢 Bullish Signals Price still above the orange trendline support (bullish structure intact). Money Flow Index (green) is still in the positive zone. Green dot was printed recently (momentum reversal signal). Still above the $100K psychological level, and strong support at ~$100,023. 🔴 Bearish Signal Price rejected hard from resistance (~$110,616–$112,000 zone). Lower high pattern forming. Stoch RSI is curling down after peaking — early signal of momentum loss. Market is struggling to reclaim $105,745, a key level. ... 🔄 Key Levels to Watch: 🔼 Resistance $105,745 – $110,616 Reclaiming = bullish continuation 🟧 Support $100,023 Break = bearish shift 🟨 Next Support $93,037 Below here = deeper correction possible ... 📉 Verdict: Short-term: Bearish bias (momentum cooling, resistance holding) Mid-term: Neutral/Bullish (structure still intact as long as $100K holds) ..... 📌 Setup Type: Support Bounce or Breakdown Play Timeframe: Daily (swing trade setup) Risk Profile: Medium Indicators Used: Price structure, support/resistance, trendline, momentum oscillators ... 🟢 Bullish Scenario – Long Setup 🔹 Entry: $100,200–$101,000 (trendline retest and major support zone) 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below $98,000 (Invalidates the higher-low structure and breaks trendline) 🔹 Targets: 1. $105,745 – reclaim level (TP1) 2. $109,118 – Fib extension (TP2) 3. $112,000 – recent high resistance (TP3) 🔹 Risk/Reward Estimate: RR ~3:1 (depending on exact entry/exit) ... 🔻 Bearish Scenario – Short Setup 🔹 Entry: Break and retest below $100,000 (Look for a candle close under + rejection on retest) 🔹 Stop-Loss: Above $101,200 🔹 Targets: 1. $93,037 – strong horizontal support (TP1) 2. $89,750 – deeper wick target (TP2) 🔹 Risk/Reward Estimate: RR ~2.5:1 ... 🧠 Bonus Tip – Use Alerts: 🔔 Set alerts at: $100,200 (to watch for bounce setup) $98,000 (for breakdown) $105,750 (resistance reclaim confirmation) Note: Retail Sales - Tuesday Unemployment Claims - Wednesday FOMC Rate Decision- Wednesday US Markets Closed - Thursday ... Much love and appreciation, – chevs710
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by chevs710
Bitcoin Consolidation: Easy, Walk Away.Bitcoin consolidation in progress. The easiest thing to do in these situations is avoid taking any trades until a new trend is established. Even smaller time frames will be harder to trade unless you are employing mean reversion strategies. At some point the market will choose which way it wants to go but trying to guess in advance is a coin flip. The broader trend is bullish but the 110K and 113K area is a tough resistance. If price struggles to break this area over the next few weeks, then a broader retrace may be more likely. In this situation it pays to wait for specific levels to take any action at all. What type of action you take will depend on your risk tolerance and time frame. In my opinion, the higher probability scenarios will be a test of the 102K area supports, followed by reversal patterns. Even if they don't follow through to new highs, at least there will be some attempt to maintain the support since Bitcoin is still generally strong. IF Bitcoin breaks the support (anything is possible) that will confirm the broader corrective scenario which can see price testing 95K at minimum. There is no way to know the certainty of this scenario, it is all about how price action unfolds and confirms. This time of year is typical of lower volume, lower momentum and less follow through. Often it is better to just sit it out and wait until the season shows clear signs of improvement. Seasonal volume does not typically get back to consistently high momentum levels until November. This does not mean there will be no opportunities at all, it just means if there is going to be a time to purposely be more selective, the next couple of months would be that time. Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12