BTCUSD trade ideas
BITCOIN This is the long-term picture. Don't get distracted.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating lately after making a new All Time High (ATH) last month and this is already making part of the market nervous over whether that's the Cycle Top or not.
This is one of those times when it would be best to ignore the short-term noise/ volatility and stick to the long-term picture. And that's exactly what's shown on this chart, with BTC on the 1M time-frame showing the incredible symmetry among its 4-year Cycles, with Bear Markets lasting 12 - 13 months and Bull Markets 35.
Based on that, this Cycle's Top is expected to be priced by October (2025). This also matches the Sine Waves as implied by the 1M RSI, which as been trading within a Channel Down (diminishing returns) since Bitcoin's inception.
So do you also think that we have around 4 months before the market tops? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin long $600k- long Bitcoin targeting $10-12T market cap by 2028
- acceleration of companies accumulating Bitcoin + continuation of Saylor & Strategy's ongoing TWAP
- notable uptick in global concerns w/ having access to non-sovereign store of wealth not affected by government intervention + over-reliance on USD + US Debt
- Gold's current market cap: $23T. Bitcoin is incredibly more useful as a SOV that's transferable easily across nation states & easier to transact with between parties anywhere globally
- currently holding $100k support after selling off to ~$75k during tariff fears + austerity with DOGE + macro higher low from last year and held support from November election
- including improved crypto regulatory environment otw soon + general sentiment around crypto a lot more positive
#BTC Double Top Breakdown? Key Levels to Watch: 100K, 92K, 74Bitcoin has recently formed a double top pattern near its all-time high at $112K–$110K, signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. After a strong rejection from the $106K resistance — a critical zone that has historically failed to close above on the daily timeframe — BTC is showing increasing bearish pressure.
All major indicators — RSI, MACD, and Stochastic RSI — are aligning to confirm this potential downtrend.
Here’s the projected bearish scenario if key supports break:
A break below $100K could trigger a fall to $97K, followed by a bounce and retest.
Rejection from $100K again may lead to a drop toward $92K.
Failure to reclaim $95K–$90K could send BTC directly down to $88K.
Another failed attempt near $90K might push Bitcoin to crash toward $74K, echoing the 2024 summer correction pattern.
This setup mirrors past seasonal moves and could mark a significant shift in market structure if confirmed.
📉 Watch these key zones:
$106K – Major resistance
$100K – Psychological and structural support
$92K / $88K / $74K – Potential targets if bearish continuation plays out
⚠️ Stay alert for retests and confirmations before entries.
Bitcoin 4-year cycles - The party is getting startedPeople say this cycle is different. But so far, when you zoom out, things are following the general trends.
- The white vertical lines represents exactly 4 years from the first cycle peak
- The blue measurements represents exactly 399 days after the white vertical lines
The trend (so far) is clear. Bitcoin has a cycle peak every 4 years, and has a cycle bottom 399 days later
If this trend was to follow this cycle:
1. Bitcoin to peak on the week of 24th November 2025
2. Bitcoin to bottom on the week of 28th December 2026
Let me know what you think!
Become Rich Trading Bitcoin Strategy Simplified Correction NullIs this a shakeout or a rejection?
A rejection implies no bullish action short-term thus lower prices. It is still early on the current move.
A shakeout implies a bear-trap and bullish action soon to follow, as soon as the shakeout is complete.
Daily and weekly close
Let's be fair and honest, it is too early to say. To determine if the current move is either a rejection or a shakeout we have to wait for the close today.
Price action
Why are these two in question? Because the daily session moved higher today reaching $106,500 followed by lower prices. The low hit $102,309, lower than 13-June but higher than 5-June, a higher low. More information can be acquired once the trading session closes but, we can move ahead and see what the chart has to say based on other signals.
The volume is low on the bearish side, on all sides. The higher low so far is strong. As long as $102,000 holds Bitcoin is ultra-hyper bullish, very strong. Even if we are considering the short-term it doesn't matter, if the action is happening above this level the bulls are wining and that's what we have.
If the action is happening above $100,000 we already know what this means and this level is not in question right now. Being price oriented that is why I say is still early, do you agree?
So, more shakeouts, more sideways, more retrace—a non-event; short-term noise.
We are looking for the next major move, not the next $1,000 drop.
Market conditions do not change
Rest easy, Bitcoin will continue bullish even if it wicks below 100K. As long as it trades above this level, or the $100,000 to $102,000 price range, the action is safe (coming from the bulls).
If the week closes above this range but starts red next week and goes below, no need to panic because the week can start red just to recover and this would only be a continuation of the shakeout; we take information from the weekly close and not the intra-week action makes sense?
Questions —Leave a comment
So, what is your take?
Just let me know truly, what is your belief?
Do you think Bitcoin is bearish or bullish?
It can be looked at in many different ways.
The bull market
The trend is bullish, mid- to long-term. The action is happening above 100K.
The altcoins market is weak but we all know from the bottom we grow, we are entering the summer now... Ahhh, the beautiful summer, bring the heat. With the summer prices tend to grow.
You can call it a relief rally but that will be only the start. The relief will turn into a major bullish wave and this wave will transform into a major bull run.
Motivation
I love you again wishing you the best forever more.
You deserve the best now and always.
Keep at it and keep trying, persistence is the key. As long as we continue to trade, in the end we are sure to win.
Invest in Crypto, it is very easy.
Think of all the people that joined us (the market) 10 years ago. What are their holdings worth now? Millions upon millions... Now, think of yourself 10 years into the future. Put whatever money in you can afford and watch it grow.
The way to riches is not through frugality or savings, the way to riches is through buying and investing. This is the right market for us. It is fast, it is volatile, it is young; just like most of us. If not young of age, we are young at heart.
Namaste.
BTC IS BORINGNot much to see here – Bitcoin continues to range quietly between support at ~$100,700 and resistance at $112,000. Price is hovering just above the 50-day moving average, which has flattened out, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a directional shift.
The recent higher low around $100,700 remains the key structural level to watch. As long as that zone holds, the bullish bias technically remains intact, but the lack of follow-through toward the highs suggests weakening momentum. Volume continues to decline, which is typical during sideways consolidation and often precedes expansion – but there's no sign of that happening yet.
A breakout above $112K would likely trigger momentum buyers, while a breakdown below $100K could put $92,800 and even $88,800 back on the table. Until then, it's just rangebound chop – and patience is the only real trade.
Nothing broken, nothing confirmed – just a waiting game for now.
BTC wait for Long
Bitcoin continues to struggle with its long-term weekly resistance.
In the short term, it’s likely that BTC will consolidate within the $100,000–$112,000 range.
Positioning heavily into altcoins during this phase may not be ideal. It’s more prudent to wait for either a confirmed breakout above weekly resistance or a pullback toward the $94,000–$92,000 support zone.
For now, the focus remains on short-term trading opportunities within this range. A potential long setup is outlined in the chart.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.
BITCOIN SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 104,672.03
Target Level: 107,484.65
Stop Loss: 102,785.72
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 3h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BTC RANGE-BOUNDBitcoin is once again pressing against the midpoint of its recent trading range after bouncing off the 50-day moving average near $105,000. Today’s candle shows solid follow-through from that bounce, reclaiming short-term structure and closing back above the key $105,787 level.
The broader structure remains a consolidation between $100,700 support and $112,000 resistance – with Bitcoin repeatedly testing both boundaries without breaking out. The most recent rejection at $112K marked the second failed attempt to clear that level, suggesting the presence of strong supply overhead. However, the continued defense of $105K and especially the higher low at $100,700 keeps the bullish structure intact for now.
The 50-day moving average has now been tagged multiple times and held as dynamic support, reinforcing its relevance in this trend. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA remains well below at $95K, and continues to slope upward, confirming broader trend health.
Volume remains relatively light during this bounce, which could be a cautionary signal for bulls hoping to see a breakout attempt. A move above $108K–$110K would likely re-ignite momentum toward the $112K top of range, while a clean break above $112K would open the door to a measured move toward $120K.
To the downside, the $100,700–$101,000 area is the line in the sand. A break below that level would invalidate the current higher low structure and put the $92,800 and $88,800 zones back in play as support.
In short, Bitcoin is still range-bound, but technically healthy. The bulls are defending key support levels and the 50 MA, while bears remain active at resistance. The next directional break – above $112K or below $100K – will likely dictate the next major move.
BTC, will hibernate for a few weeks from here to sub 100k.BTC rise has been impressive the last few weeks with market triggering excitement after hitting a series of ATH and finally punching the elusive100k levels, and pushing it further to 110k as a bonus.
But like with any overheated parabolic move, a cool down will need to transpire eventually. And that season is ripe now for the king of coins.
From the diagram we are seeing some curve fitting price action, with horizontal ranging at the upper channel -- indicating a bull saturation scenario.
A corrective phase to 0.5 fib levels maybe expected in the next few weeks. It did the same behavior last time. This hibernation would be healthy in the long run - and it needed to happen.
Spotted at 104k.
Target sub 100k levels / or 0.5 fib at 94k.
TAYOR.
Trade safely.
Hellena | BITCOIN (4H): LONG to resistance area of 115,000.I see that price has shown a violent rise in a five-wave move and I have redrawn the waves a bit to make it clear where to expect a correction. I think we are currently seeing a correction in wave “4” (104,000).
But most importantly, I expect an update of the high. Therefore, I believe that the level of 115,000 will be reached and it may be a wave “5”, after which we can expect a deeper correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
106.5K and 104.5KMorning folks,
As we've suggested upward action happened. Now overall situation stands relatively easy to understand. 100K seems like short-term vital area for upside tendency. While two support levels of 106.5K and 104.5K are those which market has to hold to keep tendency intact.
I would even prefer 106.5K area because this is also natural support line and because it agrees with downside AB-CD 1.618 extension target.
BTCUSD: Nowhere near a top yet.Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.257, MACD = 443.000, ADX = 29.912) due to high volatility recently but the bullish long term trend is intact and even more so, hasn't yet started the year-end rally. The Mayer Multiple Bands have always priced a Cycle's Top on their red trendline so no matter how high that may seem from the current market price, the TP zone should be between the orange (2 Stdev above) and red (3 Stdev above) trendines. Minimum TP = 200,000 for this Cycle.
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BTC Short. Its time to correctionStrong Sell Limits sitting at our entry level!
SELL LIMIT / SWING TRADE
ENTRY: 106106.3
SL: 109676.8
TP: 93409.1
Bearish trend is active and this would be the time for correction and even maybe for 91350 gap close .
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BTCUSD: Israel-Iran conflict like October 2024.Despite the Middle East tension, Bitcoin remains long term bullish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 63.167, MACD = 6883.200, ADX = 33.150). It remains supported on its 1D MA50, in fact in the same manner it was during the previous Israel-Iran conflict. I was on October 26th 2024, when Israel launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria. Simila to the June 13th 2025 attacks. It is more than striking how similar the two price patterns are. Assisted by the U.S. elections on November 5th 2024, a massive rally followed the Middle East conflict. A repeat of that may very well send Bitcoin to $150,000 and above.
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BTCUSD: 1D MA50 and 100k form a strong support base.Bitcoin has turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.783, MACD = 629.200, ADX = 20.857) and is about to get bearish as it hit its 1D MA50 today, erasing the gains of the last 3 days. The 1D MA50 has held two times since June 5th and another one might be what Bitcoin needs to justify the next rally. Besides this however, we got a heavier Support on the P1 trendline, which on the previous ATH (Dec 17th 2024) was a Resistance and since May 12th 2025 it turned into Support. Technically, as long as 100,000 holds, we expect a strong rebound into August that may repear the inverse of December 2024 - March 2025 (-31%) and rise by +31% (TP = 132,000).
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