BTCUSD trade ideas
BTC Just Hit the Brakes – Is the Pump Over?Bitcoin just tagged the upper Bollinger Band on the 1H chart while Stoch RSI maxed out and crossed down — a classic signal of volatility exhaustion combined with a momentum slowdown.
Technical Breakdown:
Bollinger Band Top: Price tapped the upper band, often a sign of near-term overextension
Overbought Stoch RSI (July 9th): RSI hit 97+ and flipped — momentum may be shifting
Cooling Phase? Price is stalling inside a tight range with low follow-through
arget Zone: $109K or BB midline as a possible mean reversion area
This is a high-probability zone for a pullback setup or a more attractive long opportunity if momentum resets.
BTC/USD H4 Downfall ⚠️ Disrupted Market Perspective
🟩 False Resistance Zone
The marked resistance area (~109,000) has been breached multiple times with high volatility, suggesting weak resistance strength. Instead of rejecting price, this zone acts more like a liquidity trap — luring in sellers before price spikes higher. Expect fake-outs or bullish traps near this area.
🟨 Questionable Bearish Pattern
The projected zig-zag drop is speculative. The current market structure shows higher lows forming, hinting at potential accumulation rather than breakdown. If price consolidates above 108,000, this setup might flip bullish instead of heading to the 106,000 target.
🟥 Support Area Disruption
The labeled support zone around 106,000 may not hold if broken, but it has been respected multiple times in the past. If bulls defend it again, we might see a sharp rebound rather than a continuation downward. Therefore, the “Target” area could instead become a springboard for upward reversal.
Btcusd techinical analysis.This BTC/USD 1-hour chart suggests a bullish breakout scenario. Here's a breakdown of key technical signals:
Key Observations:
1. Price Level: Current price is $109,582.1, with a recent rise of +0.59%.
2. Resistance Zones (Purple Boxes):
First resistance near $109,800 – $109,900.
Second (minor) resistance around $109,300 – $109,400.
Price is testing the upper resistance zone now.
3. Bullish W Pattern:
A sharp drop and recovery formed a “W” pattern—common before breakouts.
The neckline of this W is being challenged.
4. Trendline Breakout Projection (Blue Arrows):
The chart suggests a breakout projection towards $110,300 – $110,400.
This is based on the upward trajectory from the recent swing low.
5. Support Zone (Lower Purple Box):
Support established at $109,150 – $109,250.
If price
Bitcoin Breaks Out – The Final Test Has Begun 🚀🔥 Bitcoin Breaks Out – The Final Test Has Begun 💥📈
Boom! The breakout is here. After days of grinding under resistance, BTC has finally burst out of the channel — and all eyes are now on the monster level at $114,900.
📊 We spoke about this level again and again — the third macro test, the “HUGE-est Level EVER,” the battleground between Ultimate FOMO and End of Cycle.
⚠️ This breakout could lead to:
✔️ Acceleration to retest 114,900
✔️ A potential 3rd attempt to break the golden structure
✔️ Euphoria or exhaustion — no middle ground
🧠 Smart traders will remember:
– 8+ divergences still exist on higher timeframes
– The risk of failed breakout traps is high
– But this is what we’ve been waiting for: confirmation + continuation
🎯 If momentum holds, we may be on our way to test the upper macro structure. This is not the time to hesitate — it’s time to manage risk like a pro and track the flow.
💡 Catch up on the setup:
👉 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8
👉 July 10th Market Outlook – Uncharted Waters
🗣️ It’s not about prediction — it’s about preparation.
We were ready. Are you?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Bitcoin Daily, Mixed Situation · Bitcoin vs Altcoins · Not MixedI came with the intention of doing an update on the weekly timeframe, the chart doesn't look great.
Here we are looking at Bitcoin daily and once more the situation is mixed to say the least. It is hard to predict with exactitude with such a chart. In this case, we have to look for clues in other places. The altcoins.
But before we go there let's consider a few of the actualities that are present on the Bitcoin chart.
Bitcoin price action
Mixed or not mixed, the action continues to happen at resistance against all odds; this is bullish.
Bitcoin is trading safely above $106-$107,000 daily, and this is also bullish.
Bitcoin is trading above all moving averages we track and nothing is more bullish than that. MA200 sits around $96,000. EMA55 at $104,700 and EMA13 at $107,700.
Bitcoin will be bullish regardless as long as it trades above these levels and at a such strong price. So the mixed part is only psychological. It is mixed because people are afraid of a drop or want to see it drop. It is bullish based on the actual numbers and the chart.
The altcoins market vs Bitcoin
Some altcoins are breaking up today two to three digits green. Those good old reputable projects. This wouldn't be happening preceding a major bearish wave. Such strong action on the altcoins tends to precede a major bull market. Last week there were other pairs breaking really strong, the previous week another group, this week a new group and so on. Slowly but surely the low prices are disappearing but this isn't still a marketwide occurrence, we can see/say that the market is in no hurry.
Another relationship between Bitcoin and the altcoins relates to how many are behaving; when Bitcoin is about to crash, the altcoins tend to crash really strong and fast. The altcoins don't wait and just go down and continue diving deep if Bitcoin is about to produce a major crash. But this isn't the case, many altcoins are already at bottom prices but not based on a crash but a very slow and drawn out retrace. From these lows they are recovering strong.
When Bitcoin is bullish, sideways with a strong price within a bull market, the altcoins tend to grow. It is the same signal looked at from a different perspective. These altcoins are telling us that behind the scenes Bitcoin is bullish and we know Bitcoin is bullish because it is trading above $107,000. A bullish continuation is the next logical step.
Thank you for reading.
Boost if you agree.
Namaste.
BITCOIN Bull Cycle's next two probable stops..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a 2.5-year Channel Up throughout the entirety of its 2023 - 2025 Bull Cycle, showcasing incredible consistency. This is perhaps BTC's most stable Bull Cycle and that can help us estimate to some degree its next two key levels, before its tops.
As you can see, every major Higher High of this pattern has been either on or marginally above a +0.5 Fibonacci interval:
Fib 0.5 was the February 2023 High and Accumulation Phase.
Fib 1.0 the April - September 2023 Accumulation.
Fib 1.5 December 2023 - January 2024.
Fib 2.0 March - September 2024.
Fib 2.5 December 2024 - February 2025.
Right now the market seems to be attempting a break-out above a Bull Flag, following the massive April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been the most optimal buy entry in the past 2 years.
The next stop based on this model is the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level at 133000, where there are high probabilities for the market to consolidate (accumulation phase) in preparation for perhaps the final stop and Cycle peak on the 3.5 Fib ext around 191000. As we've discussed on previous analyses, a final Target between those two around $150000 may be more fitting, carrying less risk into the final months of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Do you believe that's the blueprint to follow until the end of the year/ Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD| Bitcoin’s Historic Parabolic Pattern🔥 Parabolic Pattern | Institutional COINBASE:BTCUSD Demand Mirrors Gold ETF Era 🔥
COINBASE:BTCUSD vs SP:SPX vs TVC:GOLD
The market is whispering something big — and it's not retail noise this time. For the third straight quarter, listed corporations have outpaced ETFs in Bitcoin purchases, a seismic shift that echoes one key moment in history: the launch of the Gold ETF. Companies like NASDAQ:MSTR contiune to buy and others are following. Will NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:GOOG be next ? Let me know in the comments who you think will be next to buy?
Back then, companies rushed to gold as a hedge against inflation and a store of value as fiat cracks widened. Fast forward to now — we're seeing the same institutional footprints in Bitcoin. The buy-the-dip narrative isn't just alive — it's being driven by corporate balance sheets.
Rumors are circulating that the U.S. government plans to buy 1 million BTC — a move that would shake the global financial system to its core. If true, this isn’t just bullish — it’s historic. The last time governments got this aggressive with a hard asset was during the Gold Reserve buildup. Bitcoin isn’t just digital gold anymore — it’s becoming sovereign-level collateral. 📈💥
💬 Drop your thoughts below. Is this the beginning of the next parabolic era?
In this episode, we break down the parabolic pattern forming on the chart, why it may signal the next explosive leg up, and how history is repeating with BTC playing the role of digital gold.
📊 Technical breakdown. On-chain behavior. Smart money moves.
Don’t blink. Parabolas end in fireworks.
I've been trading for 17 years
👍 If you found this useful, drop a like.
💬 Got questions or thoughts? Leave a comment below — I always respond and happy to help.
👍
Best Regards
MartyBoots
₿itcoin: ATHBitcoin recently marked a new all time high. Our primary expectation is for an even bigger breakout to the upside, allowing green wave B to reach its peak within the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. After this corrective high, we anticipate a sharp sell-off during green wave C, which should drive Bitcoin down into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323—where we also expect the low of the larger orange wave a. This move should, for now, signal the start of another corrective rally along orange wave b, with a retest of the freshly marked all-time high well within reach. Once this countertrend move concludes, another significant decline should follow as orange wave c develops, targeting the low of the higher-level blue wave (ii). Alternatively, there remains a 30% chance that the preceding wave alt.(i) is still in progress, which could result in a direct breakout above resistance at $130,891.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
Let your winners run🧠 Fear | Hope | Growth – When Trading Meets Emotion
The message on the chart isn't just poetic — it's real psychology.
🔹 Fear wants to cut your winners short.
It sneaks in after a small move in your favor.
"What if it reverses? I better lock this in."
And just like that, a great trade turns into a missed opportunity.
🔹 Hope drags you into holding too long.
It dreams: "Maybe it doubles... maybe this time it'll be massive."
But it's not guided by data — it's driven by fantasy.
🔹 Discipline is what sits in the middle.
Quiet. Neutral.
It doesn’t scream or seduce — it just follows the plan.
And that’s where Growth lives — not just on the PnL, but in your psychology.
When Bitcoin pushes toward new ATHs, these emotions get amplified.
The real question becomes: Can you manage yourself, not just your trade?
📌 A Real Example from My Desk
In my earlier BTCUSD idea — “Another Edge – Decision Time” (shared above) —
I sent that setup to one of my managed clients.
He entered long exactly at the edge of the channel — a clean, strategic buy.
Price moved beautifully in our favor…
But he manually closed the trade at 106,600 — long before the move matured.
Why?
Because fear of giving back profit overwhelmed the original plan.
The chart was right. The timing was right.
But the exit was emotional, not tactical.
✅ The trade made money.
❌ But the lesson is clear: a profitable trade doesn’t always mean a disciplined one.
🎯 Final Takeaway:
“Fear kills your winners. Hope kills your timing. Discipline grows your equity and your character.”
🗣 What would you have done in that position?
Held longer? Closed at resistance? Let it run toward ATH?
Let’s talk psychology — drop your thoughts 👇
#MJTrading
#TradingPsychology #BTCUSD #FearHopeDiscipline #LetYourWinnersRun #PriceAction #BTCATH #ForexMindset #CryptoStrategy
BITCOIN - SELL TO $86,000 Bitcoin spiked up last night, but just about missed our 'Invalidation Zone' of $112,140 by a few pips. As long as this level can hold & sellers move back down, this sell analysis is still valid.
A lot of whipsaw price action in the markets right now, so use stick risk management.
Educational: how to spot bitcoin tops before they happenBitcoin is rising, but how far can it go? In this video, I walk through key tools to spot local tops, including funding rates, Twitter sentiment, and pattern targets. We also discuss setups in XRP and Solana, and what to watch ahead of the US crypto regulation update on July 22.
BTCUSD h4 down surelybtcusd down idia Resistance Zone: Around 110,000–111,000
Price Action Expectation:
→ Short-term push to 110,629
→ Then rejection toward 105,000, and potentially all the way down to 96,794 or even 94,091
Bearish bias after resistance is hit
⚡ Disruption Analysis (Contrarian View)
✅ 1. Resistance Flip Possibility
What if the 110,000 resistance breaks cleanly with strong volume?
Invalidates the bearish rejection arrow
Could trigger FOMO buying → Acceleration toward 112,500+
Bullish scenario: formation of a bull flag above resistance = continuation setup
✅ 2. Bear Trap Theory at 105,000 Zone
That “target” zone near 105k could be a fake breakdown zone
Market might dip there briefly, lure shorts, then reverse violently
This creates liquidity for a rapid long squeeze breakout
✅ 3. Market Structure Still Bullish on HTF
Higher lows from June 24 to July 6
Clean breakout at 105,152
Still respecting ascending structure — which is not bearish yet
🚨 Disruption Summary Chart Moves
🔼 Alternate Path 1 (Bullish Disruption):
Price consolidates under resistance → breaks above 110,629 → targets 112,500–115,000
🔄 Alternate Path 2 (Fake Breakdown Disruption):
Drops to 105,000, triggers sell-off → sharp reversal → back above 108,637
🔽 Original Path (Rejection-Based Bearish):
Still possible — but not the only high-probability path anymore
BTC/USD Today: Momentum Builds Toward the Next BreakoutBITSTAMP:BTCUSD Today: Momentum Builds Toward the Next Breakout
Previously on BTC...
1. Double Top Pattern and Target Hit
The chart shows a classic double top (early 2025), a bearish reversal pattern. Once the neckline broke, the price plunged and nailed the technical target (red arrow)—as if Bitcoin had read the textbook.
2. Trendline Break = Game Changer
After bottoming out, BTC broke through a downward sloping trendline, triggering a strong bullish move. This breakout signaled a trend reversal, and the market responded accordingly.
3. Perfect Pullback
Once the breakout played out, the price retraced back to previous resistance, now turned support. This “perfect pullback” is the kind of thing that makes technical analysts smile in their sleep.
4. Bull Trend Confirmation
The successful retest of support confirmed that Bitcoin had shifted from neutral/bearish into a full-on bull trend. Buyers stepped back in with confidence.
📊 BTC/USD – Current Outlook
Bull Flag Forming
Currently, price action is consolidating into a bull flag, a continuation pattern often seen mid-rally. If it breaks out to the upside, the projected target sits near $120,000 .
🚀 Bullish Catalysts:
- Strong structural trend: Higher highs and higher lows are still intact.
- Post-halving momentum: Historically, Bitcoin tends to go beast mode 6–12 months after each halving—and we’re right in that sweet spot.
- ETF inflows : Institutional capital continues pouring into Bitcoin ETFs, adding steady buying pressure.
- Supply crunch: With more BTC leaving exchanges, sell-side liquidity is drying up. Hodlers are hodling.
- Technical setup: A confirmed breakout from the bull flag could trigger a powerful leg higher.
⚠️ Risks and Levels to Watch:
A breakdown of the bull flag could send BTC back toward the $98k–91k range.
Macro headwinds (rate hikes, economic slowdown, dollar strength) could still rain on crypto’s parade.
🧠 Conclusion
This chart paints a textbook bullish setup for Bitcoin. The double top is in the rearview mirror, the trendline breakout gave us the green light, and now the bull flag is loading the next move.
If the breakout happens, the next destination could be $120,000.
It’s one of those “don’t blink” moments—BTC might just be stretching before its next sprint.
HelenP. I Bitcoin may continue grow and break resistance levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. After looking at this chart, we can see how the price broke the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone, and continued to move down next. When the price almost reached the support level, it turned around and tried to grow, but failed and dropped to the support zone. After this movement, BTC turned around and made an impulse up to the resistance zone, breaking the resistance level one more time. Then it reached the trend line and started to decline in a broadening wedge, where it broke the resistance level again. Later, the price even declined below the support level, breaking this level too and falling to the support line of the wedge pattern. Next, price turned around and made a strong impulse up to the resistance level, thereby breaking the support level with the trend line, exiting from the broadening wedge too. Bitcoin made a retest of the trend line and then continued to grow. In my opinion, BTCUSD will correct to almost to trend line and then rise to the resistance level. Then it can break this level and continue to move up; therefore, I set my goal at 111000 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
BITCOIN BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 111,047.38
Target Level: 109,294.85
Stop Loss: 112,211.89
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Internal and external liquidity Here's another mechanical lesson for you.
In my last post I covered a mechanical technique to identify swing ranges. Rule-based, simple and repeatable.
In this post, I want to share another little technique, again part of the mechanical series. But this time I want to talk about liquidity.
Most traders talk about liquidity, they might even have a grasp of what it is. But most do not know how liquidity forms the sentiment and how that creates a type of algo for the market.
You might have heard of Elliott wave theory. There is a saying along the lines of "you ask 10 Elliott traders for their count and you get 11 answers".
But the point is here, when you simplify the concept, it's clear to see that sentiment caused by liquidity swings is what causes a repeatable pattern in the market.
Let's take the idea of the ranges from my last post.
Now after a fair amount of accumulation, this level becomes "defended" - the price will gradually move up until old short stop losses are tagged and new long entries are entered into.
This allows the institutional players to open up their orders without setting off the alarm bells.
Price then comes back from external liquidity to find internal liquidity (more on this in a later post).
But then it looks for the next fresh highs.
As the highs are put in, we can use the range technique to move our range to the new area as seen in the image above.
Next we will be looking for an internal move, not just internal to the range, but a fractal move on the smaller timeframe that drives the pullback down. See this in blue.
The logic here is simple; on the smaller timeframes we have witnessed an accumulation at the 2 region and as we spike up for 3; we will witness a distribution on the smaller timeframes.
Wyckoff called this the accumulation, followed by a mark-up and then the distribution and a mark-down.
It is this pattern, over and over again that leads to this type of structure.
This will then be re-branded by various analysts who will call it things like a head and shoulders, smart money will see a change of character and a retest before breaking the structure.
This is all the same thing - just a different naming convention.
Again, I hope this helps some of you out there!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BTCUSD · 3D — Bearish Divergence + Volume Drop Suggest Pullback
🧠 Setup Overview
Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion after a parabolic rally:
Bearish divergence is visible on the 3D RSI — price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs.
Volume is shrinking with each push up, suggesting buyer momentum is fading.
Price is pressing into all-time highs without conviction, signaling potential for a pullback.
🔻 Downside Targets
Target 🎯 Level Why It Matters
Target 1 $92,300 (50% Fib) Midpoint of last impulse + first strong demand area.
Target 2 $82,500 (61.8% Fib) Volume-profile support + key confluence zone.
🔎 What Confirms the Setup?
Breakdown below $108K structure
Daily close below $105K with increasing volume
RSI losing midline support = momentum shift confirmed
❌ Invalidation
Daily close > $112K with strong volume = idea invalid
Would suggest continuation toward blue-sky breakout
✅ Summary
Bearish divergence + volume drop = classic topping signals
Risk is well-defined, with Fib-backed targets offering clean R:R
Trade cautiously — momentum is fading, not gone yet
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and manage risk according to your plan.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis #BearishDivergence #RSI #VolumeProfile #Fibonacci #TradingView