Bitcoin forming bullish parabola?Connecting the recent lows on the daily, we see that buyers are not allowing price to dip to lower trend lines, forming the beginnings of a parabola, let's see if it holds. To the mooooon!
BTCUSD trade ideas
Bullish tripple bottom?So in the purple zone i marked what i believe to be not confirmed bullish tripple bottom.
For the confirmation i will wait for it to come to atleast a 67,899.
If that wont work out there could be potrentional sell in under 66,798 when it will break out of the box zone.
BTC going down!After meeting heavy resistance at 68 - 69k,
BTC is on a downtrend.
And this makes my prediction correct for now , but this does not mean that the bull movement is completely over.
I still expect some price actions around 66.5k which is the price of the upper (resistance) line of the downtrend - which now works as the support level.
And there's a good chance this might change the tide and start the bullish movement again.
Or the price might just pierce through the level, which would then make the bearish prediction stronger.
My humble piece of advice here would be:
React, not predict.
#Bitcoin Wave Count and Primary Bullish Move Targets#Bitcoin overall #Elliottwave count of the primary bullish move since late November 2022.
With price breaking above the bearish trendline that had kept it lower since March 12th, we can confidently say that the complex consolidation under wave ④ of iii has ended, and we're now in the impulsive wave ⑤ of iii.
Looking more closely at wave ⑤, we can see that waves (1) and (2) are complete, and we're currently in wave (3) of ⑤.
Based on Fibonacci tools, I believe wave ⑤ could target a range between 75,000 and 97,000. However, the key takeaway here is not just the targets but that we're in a bullish impulsive wave ⑤ and how we can take advantage of this using our strategies.
Another bullish confluence on the chart is the formation of a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern, visible at the end of the bearish corrective wave ④ and the start of wave ⑤.
BITCOIN When the 4 year Cycles do the talking..It's been some time since we last used the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) but the timing is just right to bring you an update, only 2 weeks before the U.S. Presidential Elections with the market ahead on an imminent bullish break-out.
This time we look into how the price was trading on this date every 4 years. As you know BTC is trading roughly within 4 year Cycles that keep a high degree of symmetry and tend to repeat a lot of dynamics each time.
Right now, towards the end of October (2024), the price is trading within the Mean MM (black trend-line) and the 1st SD above (grey trend-line). It has already started rising off the Mean MM. Based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, it is no surprise then that the price was within the exact same range in October 2020, October 2016 and October 2012. The degree of symmetry is remarkable and is yet again showcased by this indicator.
We can also see that by this time every 4 years, the price had already started rising off the Mean MM, just as it is doing now. With the green Rectangles we display the date range between these 4-year intervals and the peak of the Bull Cycle. For October 2012 it took 58 weeks (406 days) until it topped, October 2016 was 60 weeks (420 days) while October 2020 was 55 days (385 days). So time-wise the Cycle tends to peak roughly the same period.
As a result, if we take the minimum scenario of 55 weeks, we can expect the Cycle to top by mid November 2025. As far as targets are concerned, the first two Cycles hit (and broke) the 3 SD above (red trend-line), while the last one the 2 SD above (orange trend-line). Again assuming a 'worst case scenario' hitting 'just' the 2 SD trend-line, we can set a Target Range of 190k - 250k, depending on whether the price hits it halfway through the 55 week range or towards its end. Nevertheless, an exciting rally appears to be starting for Bitcoin.
So what do you think? Is this October MMB fractal about to break to a parabolic rally? And if so, will it hit the orange trend-line? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Trade Idea for BTCUSDMy sentiment about BTCUSD is firmly bullish.
I plan to utilize probabilities to strategically position myself into long positions. This approach allows me to leverage statistical analysis and market behavior to enhance my trading decisions.
Several key fundamentals are currently influencing the market in a direction that aligns with my bullish bias on BTCUSD:
Institutional Adoption: There has been a notable increase in institutional interest in Bitcoin, with major firms investing heavily. This trend suggests growing confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.
Economic Uncertainty: Global economic conditions remain volatile, leading many investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
Technological Advancements: Innovations in blockchain technology and increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies for transactions are contributing to a more robust ecosystem, enhancing Bitcoin's utility and attractiveness.
Conclusion
In summary, my bullish stance on BTCUSD is supported by both statistical probabilities and current global fundamentals. By strategically using probabilities, I aim to position myself advantageously in the market. This method not only enhances my trading strategy but also aligns with broader economic trends that favor the growth of Bitcoin.
Let’s dive into the top-down analysis together! Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome!
1D:
Hourly Timeframes:
If you found this analysis useful, please boost and comment! Your support helps us all grow!
Oct.15-Oct.21(BTC)Weekly market recapThe CME interest rate swap market predicts that the FOMC will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in November. This means that after a 50 basis point cut, the Federal Reserve will loosen its monetary policy. This is not favorable for risk assets, including BTC.
In the past two weeks, BTC ETFs have seen significant net inflows, indicating that after the shift in monetary policy, funds are gradually flowing into the cryptocurrency market. This is a large-scale trend. BTC is rapidly approaching its all-time high (ATH). However, the pricing in the interest rate market for a November rate cut may lead to some degree of correction for BTC.
Additionally, the U.S. presidential election will take place in early November. While Harris has expressed support for cryptocurrencies, Trump is undoubtedly the biggest supporter for the sector. The importance of the U.S. election for BTC is increasing.
As we expected, BTC maintained its upward trend last week and moved above the given support level. We can see the blue bars representing whales appearing on the WTA indicator. The macro shift is starting to attract large capital. The purple wave area on the ME indicator is widening, indicating stronger bullish sentiment.
In summary, we believe BTC may experience a correction this week and then continue to rise afterward. We are raising the resistance level to 70,000 and the support level to 60,000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
The Effects of Sleep Deprivation on Trader Decision MakingTrading in financial markets, such as forex, commodities, or indices, requires sharp cognitive skills and emotional discipline. But how much does sleep — or lack thereof — play into our trading success? Sleep deprivation is a silent enemy for traders, eroding decision-making abilities and performance without us realizing it.
1️⃣ Impaired Cognitive Processing and Analytical Thinking
Sleep deprivation significantly hampers cognitive processing and problem-solving abilities, which are crucial for traders. After just one night of poor sleep, it becomes harder to think clearly and analyze the market effectively. Studies show that people suffering from sleep loss often struggle with analytical tasks, especially those involving logic and pattern recognition, such as chart analysis and reading economic data.
For example, imagine a trader who has to make rapid decisions about volatile currency pairs like EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. With a foggy mind, they may overlook critical data or misinterpret price action, leading to poor trading choices. This cognitive sluggishness can seriously undermine even the most experienced traders' performance.
2️⃣ Increased Emotional Volatility and Risk-Taking
Emotional regulation becomes much more difficult when sleep-deprived. When tired, we tend to become more emotionally reactive, leading traders to either take on more risk than they should or to become overly cautious at the wrong times. This stems from the fact that sleep loss disrupts the balance in the prefrontal cortex, the brain’s decision-making center, and heightens activity in the amygdala, responsible for emotional reactions.
Take the classic example of the 2008 financial crisis: traders working around the clock, making high-stress decisions under sleep-deprived conditions, likely fell victim to increased risk-taking behaviors, leading to further losses. A trader who slept poorly might overtrade or refuse to exit losing positions, driven by fear or a lack of sound judgment.
3️⃣ Reduced Focus and Increased Error Rates
Sleep deprivation drastically reduces our ability to focus for extended periods, a skill critical in day trading or monitoring positions across global markets. A tired trader often finds their attention wandering, increasing the chances of missing key market signals or making errors in order execution.
In my own experience, I’ve noticed that when I am sleep-deprived, simple tasks such as placing bids and offers or calculating position sizes can suddenly become prone to error. This aligns with research indicating that sleep deprivation increases error rates by up to 20-30% in decision-intensive tasks.
4️⃣ Slow Reaction Times in Fast-Moving Markets
Forex and commodities markets can move quickly, and trading success often hinges on reaction times. Sleep-deprived traders experience slower physical and mental response times, leaving them at a disadvantage when reacting to sudden market moves.
Imagine a forex trader dealing with a sudden spike in USD/JPY due to a central bank decision. If sleep-deprived, their delayed response might lead to missed opportunities or deeper losses. This is especially problematic for traders who use scalping strategies or rely on algorithms that require real-time adjustments.
5️⃣ Inability to Learn from Mistakes and Reflect on Trades
Good traders always reflect on their trades, learning from both successes and failures. However, sleep deprivation impairs memory and reflection, hindering a trader’s ability to learn and adapt over time. When sleep-deprived, your brain struggles to consolidate memories and draw insights from past experiences, reducing the likelihood of improving your trading performance in the future.
For instance, if a trader misreads price action on a commodity chart while sleep-deprived, they may not internalize the mistake, missing a valuable opportunity to refine their strategy.
6️⃣ Sleep Deprivation and the Power of Compounding Mistakes
One of the worst aspects of sleep deprivation in trading is the compounding of errors. As mistakes pile up due to poor judgment, emotional volatility, or reduced focus, a trader’s confidence starts to erode, leading to a vicious cycle of bad decisions. This can severely impact their overall profitability.
In my own practice, I have observed how lack of sleep creates a negative spiral. Missing an early trade or not protecting gains on a position due to poor judgment can easily snowball into chasing entries, overtrading, or emotional decision-making. Understanding this compounding effect helps highlight the critical importance of maintaining mental clarity and managing sleep quality as part of a sound trading strategy.
7️⃣ The Need for Restorative Sleep and Recovery
The key to mitigating all these negative effects lies in prioritizing restorative sleep. Research shows that consistent, quality sleep helps replenish cognitive resources, enhance memory retention, and balance emotions. Traders need to adopt disciplined sleep hygiene just as they do their trading strategies. Setting up a sleep schedule and sticking to it, avoiding caffeine and screens late in the evening, and creating a relaxing pre-sleep routine can help prevent many of the issues discussed above.
In addition, some traders integrate mindfulness practices, such as meditation or yoga, into their daily routines to help regulate stress and emotions, enhancing their overall sleep quality and trading focus. These holistic approaches are invaluable for keeping cognitive function at peak levels in high-stakes environments.
It’s clear that sleep deprivation can be disastrous for traders. From impairing cognitive processing to increasing emotional volatility, sleep loss diminishes trading performance in multiple ways. By understanding these risks and implementing strategies for improved sleep hygiene and mindfulness, traders can maintain a sharper edge in the markets and make more informed, objective decisions.
BTCUSD FOR BUYBtc broke out of a trendline and resistance zone, retested the zone, and formed a bullish candlestick pattern.
Bitcoin Breakout Alert! Will We See $85,000 Soon?**🚀 Bitcoin Breakout Alert! 🚀 Will We See $85,000 Soon?**
💥 Bitcoin is currently re-testing a breakout at $67,000 with momentum building up! 📈
The charts are showing strong bullish signals, and we’re looking at the possibility of hitting the $85K resistance zone soon. 🔥
📊 RSI is in the bullish zone, and the market seems ready for a powerful move! Will we continue upward, or are we in for a retest?
🔔 Keep an eye on key support levels at $49,723 – volatility is real! 🌐
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #Breakout #Trading #CryptoNews #CryptoTrading #BTCPrice #Cryptocurrency #BTCto85K #Blockchain #HODL
BTCUSD BUY 65000On the daily chart, BTCUSD is moving upward after breaking the triangle consolidation, and short-term bulls have the upper hand. Currently, you can pay attention to the support near 65,000. If it falls back and stabilizes, you can consider continuing to buy. Pay attention to the consolidation near 72,000.
BTC - 66 650 Target HitWe have successfully reached our 66 650 target. The liquidity trend line has been taken out nicely as anticipated. Price will now retrace before it continues to fall.
BTC will be falling is the long-term.
Patience is key!!!
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): ATH Ahead! What is Next?As I anticipated, the value of BITCOIN continues to rise.
When looking at the daily chart, we can observe a clear bullish breakout above a resistance line from a previously declining trend, indicating a strong signal to follow the trend.
It appears that the price is poised to test its all-time high levels in the near future, given the overall bullish trend.
If the price successfully surpasses and holds above the all-time high, we can expect BITCOIN to soar even higher, marking the beginning of a bull market. Caution is advised!
What is the best Proxy to BTC during a bull run....As Bitcoin continues goes mainstream, from Bitcoin ETFs, to El Salvador, the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, steadily adding to its Bitcoin reserves every day since March 16 2024.... The question remains, what are some of the best Proxies to Bitcoin...
This chart shows a few stocks trading as proxies to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Faces High Selling Pressure at $69.5KEven though Bitcoin couldn't break $70K, the outlook remains optimistic.
Our analysts suggest a potential correction to $65.000, an important area of value supported by dynamic resistance on the daily chart.
This correction, however, is seen as a healthy reset rather than a cause for concern, particularly as stochastic indicators suggest a favorable setup in the near future.
What Should Traders Do?
For those holding Bitcoin in spot markets, the advice is simple: stay calm.
Any correction is viewed as a buying opportunity for those with a long-term outlook.
Leverage traders, however, might want to exercise caution.
With the market expected to remain volatile in both directions, it’s a risky time to be trading on margin.
Bitcoin Futures Hit $40.5B—Big Move Coming? #BTCBitcoin is primed for a big breakout as open interest in BTC futures just hit an all-time high of $40.5 billion! This shows that the smart money is piling in, and volatility is about to spike. 📊
Key Trends to Watch:
Institutional Interest Growing: CME leads the futures market with 30.7% of total open interest, followed by Binance. Institutions are making their moves, and you should too. 💼
Support at $69,000: BTC tested the $69K resistance but couldn't break through. Will it take a 2nd attempt? Many analysts say $70K+ is in play once this level cracks.
On-Chain Signals: Bitcoin supply on exchanges is at a 5-year low, signaling fewer sellers and potential upward pressure. 🛑
Key Catalysts Ahead:
U.S. Election Optimism 🗳️ —Markets love clarity, and any positive news could give Bitcoin the push it needs.
ETF Momentum 📈 —Spot BTC ETFs are seeing major inflows, hinting at increased demand from institutional investors.
Potential Scenarios:
🚀 Break above $70K: We could see a rapid run toward $75K.
📉 If rejected, strong support sits around $63K, so this could be a good pullback opportunity.
What are your next moves? Follow closely, because volatility is knocking! 📉📈
BTC needs to hit at 67000 for volatility to reverse the trend It's the "Idea" section, so, by, definition does not state truth or fact, nor goes beyon personal opinion, and thus represents only a vision of a variable. Just wanted to share a detail or two, maybe it'll help you out, maybe not.
61433 -> 62984 -> 65510 -> 68236 -> 67649 + 69343 -> Spring is loading?
I noticed rapid buyback zone as of recently, with mediane at 66644.
We're currently above "spicey" 65429, where BTC performed coal dancing since 02 of April, gradually spinning around this level for 7 moths, revolving steadily. I've also noted that BTC has tried to swing around 69649 6 times already, failing to hold grasp. This is the 7th attempt so far, and that's curious - last 6 attempts happened in the last 6 months. Last time this happened 3 years ago, in 2021. Anomaly.
ATL's since April were 49731 -> 52559 -> 58857: they're growing steadily, with 58857 been a troublemaker and forming a strong buyback zone, aprox 2500 pp wide from under the 55614.
Charlim sucks, TL;DR - price is overheated, but in a different way. Seems like a process of loading the spring before it hits "release" point and enters the expansion cycle. It has to hit |67065 ~ 66500| for volatility to spike up enough for reversal in trend. Meh. At 68k it'll be able to break out bull, but that's meh x2.
BTC will have hard time crashing back to 58k, since, that's where the last ATL's are, which tells about hard resistance level.
Be aware: crypto is not the place for precice TA, one flash crash and the trendline is done.
Vary your TP/SL according to the individual risk tolerance.
VOLUME = MONEYPlace your bets, BTC is at a critical point. Any strong volume here showing buying pressure will continue this strong monthly uptrend.
That being said, if no buyers come in here we will see most likely a multi week fall over the next couple of weeks at least.
Short term signals should give a good idea as to the direction this will take. I think the odds of this going higher are much better than it failing to trade above the channel. Well see in the next week or two what that will be.
Once a direction has been established, you trade the trend. Good luck!
#BTC important BreakoutFirst sign for a Crypro-Bullrun.
Im expecting the price + blue-line to dance around with the green SMA for quite a while. This time using the SMA as support instead of resistance.
When Price pushes to the upside, leaving the SMA and blue line behind, BTC could go crazy.
BTCUSD hit the 1hour MA200. New rally if it holds.Bitcoin / BTCUSD hit the 1hour MA200 on today's strong correction.
So far it is holding and is on the 5th candle in a row of support.
As long as it holds, it is a bullish signal and can give a rally similar to the last 1hour MA200 hold (October 13th) or the one before (October 10th).
The 1hour RSI also got oversold and is rebounding. It crossed above its MA, a bullish signal.
Buy and target 71000 (+6.70% at least).
Previous chart:
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