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BTCUSD trade ideas
Gann analysis of BTC's possible downtrend This is the downtrend setup that currently BTC is forming , Orange lines are same line with same slope as 2022 drop from 70k back to 16k , yellow lines are uptrend lines from 16k , Gann start is at orange line and the gann end is when yellow line and orange line meets ( meaning that after that time it wouldnt be possible to go lower than yellow line or else BTC will enter macro bear market ( which is very unlikely because it's bad for business of blackrock and exchanges)
Trading with this is very simple as long as BTC doesnt pass orange line which is currently around 100800 then we are in a downtrend,maximum possible drop is 73k , since we are now much more close to the top than the bottom it's better to stay from long and only short .
We need to go beyond 100800 and a good and possitive narrative to go higher until then price should keep going down .
Also be aware that this is not the only possible setup , there is also another Gann which pointing toward 200k in 2026, price always have possibility to go higher or lower at the same time , which one manifest first is mostly depends on narrative , economic and what wealthy people expect to happen
BTCUSDhello trader, the bitcoin has tested the support many times and now it has broken out of the strong resistance trendline.. the price will likely reach 102k as weekly and daily candle showing bullish momentum.. the price may correct at 102k or not depending on the amount of volume.
good luck..
Bitcoin 2-21 🔥 Market Overview:
Trend: Bitcoin is testing a breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase, moving above the 200 EMA. Short-term bullish momentum forming.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $98,500 – Psychological barrier and prior rejection zone.
Support: $97,400 – 200 EMA level, previously acting as resistance.
Indicators:
EMA 200: Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim it as support, signaling trend reversal potential.
MACD: Bullish crossover, indicating growing upside momentum.
RSI: 64 – Approaching overbought territory but still has room to push higher.
🔥 Scalping Strategy:
🩸 1. Breakout Scalping
Buy near: $98,000, targeting $98,800.
Sell near: $98,800, targeting $99,500.
Stop-loss below: $97,400 (EMA 200 breakdown).
🩸 2. Momentum Scalping
Ride the upward trend with small pullback entries around $98,200.
Take profits near $98,900 and $99,500.
🩸 3. EMA Scalping
Long entries near: 200 EMA ($97,400).
Exit at: $98,500 resistance.
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks):
If Bitcoin holds above the 200 EMA, expect an extended rally toward $100K.
Failure to maintain above $97,400 could trigger a retest of $96,500.
🔥 News & Market Context:
No major bearish catalysts at the moment.
Positive sentiment growing around ETF inflows and institutional accumulation.
Market awaiting confirmation of sustained breakout above $98,500.
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term: Long scalps are favored, as momentum is shifting bullish.
🩸 Mid-term: Needs to hold above 200 EMA to confirm a new rally.
🩸 Ideal Play: Enter on a confirmed breakout or buy dips near EMA support.
👑 Final Verdict:
Bitcoin is approaching a decisive breakout zone. Bulls need to reclaim $98,500 to confirm the trend shift. Scalping longs are profitable while BTC remains above the 200 EMA. If rejected, expect another range-bound move.
🔥 "Victory belongs to those who anticipate the shift before the masses react. The weak wait for confirmation, the strong seize the momentum." 👑
Bitcoin's next leg up is starting right nowI'm calling it. This is the exact start of the next major Bitcoin rally
BTC 2021 Bull Run repeat? Start of Alt Coin Season!Hello Folks,
Just wanted to do a quick update on a possible plan for BTC over the next few weeks. This is based on a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic we had all the way back in 2020. Ironically when China entered big new into the crypto market in which they are currently doing as of now.
The chart is kind of messy but, I wanted to publish the gist of it. I used the bars pattern tool which we have been following for the past 6-8 weeks. Grabbing price action from the first top we made in 2021 and placing it over the current price action in which it seems to be following nicely. We will likely either follow the Green arrow Path or the White Arrow Path for the long and then you can follow the Short Position tool for the short. This is not yet fully confirmed but, the volume and the manipulation during these times show me that the Schematic is likely going to play out.
It is important to mention that the green line you see is a parabola trend support line that BTC has been holding this whole run. So it is possible that we hold it on this drop if it in fact comes. The second important thing to note is that we have a gap on CME:BTC1! between $77,975 and $80,775 as you can see on the chart below.
In conclusion yes, it is very possible that we have a decent discount coming up. IMO this is truly that, a discount. I do believe some alt coins may run up a ways while BTC has this short term long and if it comes to fruition and BTC then trades sideways for a week or two and we see the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D start loosing traction from the possible ascending channel it has been jumping in and out of the past few weeks.... also indicating some manipulation. This can be seen on the chart linked below. Lastly, the most important thing to notice is the down sloping resistance trend line on the Bitcoin Dominance chart that looks to be what I would say after my 8 years in crypto and trading daily, the beginning of alt coin season!!! Keep in mind, history doesn't always repeat itself but, it often rhymes!
I hope you enjoyed this update and look forward to all of you who follow our trades to be looking out for all of the Alt coins that have bottomed out and look to be ready to run over the next few weeks that we will be posting! DONT FORGET TO FOLLOW and leave a comment with your opinion or any questions about our trades.
Stay Humble & Profitable my friends,
Savvy!
Here is a link to a publication that will help you understand more about the Wyckoff Distribution Schematic I am referring to in 2021. This trader did a great job on charting it as well as explaining it in his publication. Don't forget to show him some love!
BTC\USD SELL zone @96,600 H4 chart analysisHere’s a polished version of your trading signal post:
BTC/USD Sell Signal
Entry: 96,600
Target: 90,500
Stop-Loss: 98,500
📊 Trade with caution. Manage your risk wisely!
Would you like me to help you create a graphic or suggest hashtags for better reach?
That’s a solid signal for your client. You could frame it like this for clarity and professionalism:
BTC/USD – H4 Analysis
📉 SELL Zone: 96,600
🕒 Timeframe: H4
Key resistance identified with potential rejection. Monitor for confirmation signals such as bearish candlesticks or volume spikes.
Are you adding a stop-loss and target range for them, or keeping it strictly technical? Want me to help you draft a full signal format with entry, SL, and TP levels?
BITCOIN: Bull Flag. Will it break upwards?Bitcoin has just turned bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 56.545, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 38.441) but remains neutral on 1D. The reason is that the price is now at the top of the 2 week Channel Down, having crossed and closed over the 4H MA100 for the first time since January 31st. On the larger timeframes this Channel Down could be a Bull Flag to continue the bullish trend but of course the price needs to cross over it, otherwise a technical rejection will prevail. If it breaks upwards, go long targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 99,500). Until it does, keep a tight SL short targeting the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 95,750).
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BITCOIN seeking buyers on the 4hour MA100.Bitcoin / BTCUSD made a decisive break out yesterday over both the 4hour MA100 for the first time in 20 days as well as the Falling Resistance.
After topping today, the price pulled back to retest the 4hour MA100, this time as a demand level so that the market gets the confirmation that there are short term buyers there.
1day RSI wise, we made a bullish breakout above the MA similar to January 14th, which was followed with an immense rally to the 109400 High.
Buy and target the bottom of that Resistance Zone at 106500.
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Bitcoin’s Struggle Continues: Key Levels to WatchBitcoin’s price action over the past two months has been frustrating, with the price stuck in a range.
The brief drop to the 90K zone following Trump’s tax announcement was quickly reversed. However, after a spike above 100K, BTC has once again been consolidating below this key level for the past two weeks.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD is sitting on newly formed support at 95K. A break below this level could lead to another test of 90K.
If bulls fail to hold the 90K support, the price could extend its decline, potentially dropping to 85K in the first instance.
BRIEFING Week #8 : Risk-Off move this weekHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Phil
February 17 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis
Hello
It's a Bitcoinguide.
If you have a "follower"
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If my analysis is helpful,
Please would like one booster button at the bottom.
Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There is no Nasdaq indicator announcement today.
Long waiting based on the rising pattern in Nasdaq
The best short entry section in Tether Dominance came out at the mid-term point.
There is a possibility of a gap reversal at the top and I may miss the entry point today, so
I operated aggressively.
*One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. Pursue purchase at $96,252.5 / Stop loss when the purple support line breaks away or when the 2nd section is touched
2. Top section 1st target -> Good 2nd target
Short position switching when the Good section is reached
Movement within the 1st and 2nd sections at the top is a sideways market.
There may be a strong decline from the 2nd section breakaway,
so those who are operating long positions should be careful.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use only.
I hope that you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
Bitcoin: preparing for the breakThe inflation figures, Fed next moves, potential impact of US Administration on Fed's decisions, trade tariffs were all unknowns on the financial markets during the previous period, which impact that the BTC was sort of left a bit behind. From the beginning of February, BTC entered into sort of side trading, between levels of $ 98K to the upside and $95K to the downside. There were occasionally attempts for a higher or a lower ground, however, the market swiftly diminished such moves, turning the price of BTC back to the channel.
Similar situations continued also during the previous week. The BTC continued to move in a range between the levels of $98,75K and $94,5K, continuing the channel from the beginning of February. The RSI is almost flat for the last 15 days, moving around the level of 50. It shows that the market is still not ready to choose the trading side. The MA50 and MA200 are currently moving as two parallel lines, without an indication of a potential cross in the near period.
From the perspective of the technical analysis, a movement in a channel indicates that soon the financial asset will make a final break, either toward the upside, or toward the downside. The chances are equal for both sides. What is also strongly evident on BTC daily chart is a strong support at $92K. In this sense, a break of a channel to the down side would imply that BTC will find support again at this level. If a break occurs to the upside, then the next strong resistance line holds at $100K. Still, there is a question whether this break will occur in the week ahead or BTC will spend another week in this channel? The technical analysis can indicate levels, but not the exact timeframe in which these levels will be reached.
BRIEFING Week #7 : Whatch Out for the DollarHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Research on Timing & VolatilityThe convergence of the linear extension of volatility bands toward a specific point is a phenomenon rooted in market equilibrium dynamics and statistical projection. When volatility contracts, it often signals a transition from a high-activity phase to a period of consolidation, where price fluctuations narrow, leading to a temporary state of balance between buying and selling pressures. This focal point may represent a fair market value, an equilibrium price level, or a statistically significant mean, derived from moving averages, regression models, or other analytical techniques. Additionally, the convergence could indicate an area where price is expected to stabilize before a potential breakout, as volatility tends to move in cycles of expansion and contraction. In many cases, such a point acts as a precursor to future market movement, suggesting that once compression reaches a critical level, price action may soon undergo a directional shift, either resuming a trend or initiating a new one.
RESEARCH
I used linear generated extensions FREMA (Volatility bands based on Buying & Selling Pressure) on BTCUSD (because 24h) to carry out a quick experiment on 15mTF in order to observe graphically specific properties of volatility.
As the lines diverge from their intersection, a key question emerges: how will price react to this expansion, where angles defined by selling and selling pressure are inverted? Will the market take this as a signal for a breakout, surging in one direction with renewed momentum, or will it hesitate, moving sideways as traders search for confirmation? The contraction leading to this moment suggests a buildup of pressure — now released into a phase where volatility returns. If buyers take control, price could rally sharply, breaking through resistance levels. Conversely, if sellers dominate, a sharp decline might unfold. The widening of the bands signals the beginning of a new phase where direction and strength will soon become clear.
Most importantly I'll establish how price behaves when it encounters those lines.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-20 : Rotation PatternSorry for my delay this morning. Everything is fine over here - just a bit hectic this morning, and I had to drive my son to his work at 530am - which interrupted my plans.
OK, so here we go.
This video helps to organize my analysis/thinking into more clearly presented data for my followers. I use the Fibonacci Price Theory as a basis for all my analysis. On top of that, I use other techniques (anchor bars, my SPY Cycle Patterns, and my custom indexes) to help identify when and where opportunities exist for the best trades.
I've been getting comments related to my labeling these videos as Bullish or Bearish which may go against the primary trend direction presented on the charts. So, now I've added a TEXT LABEL that tells you what every chart is doing on a Short, Intermediate, and Long-term basis.
This will help all of you follow my analysis/thinking going forward (I hope).
Today's Rotation Pattern suggests the markets will slide into a sideways price rotation phase.
This rotation could be a stalling pattern after the recent rally to new ATHs.
I'm still very cautious of a breakdown/pullback in trend after this move higher. As I keep saying, I don't believe the markets have sufficient momentum to continue a massive rally phase. And I really believe this new ATH level is a BULL TRAP - setting up longs to jump into this rally mode before a bigger pullback/breakdown takes place.
Gold and Silver are struggling to move higher with a fairly broad rotating range - but they are still pushing higher.
I believe Gold and Silver will make a big move higher over the next 30+ days. So, be prepared for volatility - but stick with long trades for metals as I believe Gold will rally to levels above $3100 very quickly.
Bitcoin could be shifting into a new Excess Phase Peak pattern off recent lows. The FPT trends for Bitcoin are still BEARISH, but we are starting to see a base setup that may become a new Excess Phase Peak low.
Watch this video and please comment if you have any questions.
Again, sorry for my delay this morning.
Get some..
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BITCOIN The road to 150k is wide open.Bitcoin / BTCUSD is consolidating on the very same Fibonaci level it did during the previous Cycle.
As you see, it was on the 0.786 Fibonacci that BTC traded sideways 4 years ago during January-February 2021.
With the 1week MA50 as the support, it made a November 2021 Cycle Top.
According to this, we can easily see $150k by the end of this year.
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Bearish context holds. Pullback to 101-102KMorning folks,
A recent few sessions have rather narrow range, so we have little changes since our last discussion.
We have confirmed DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart, so we keep bearish general view on BTC, with potential downside target around 80-81K. This also makes us to not consider any long positions. If even upside bounce will happen - we try to use this rally for short entry later.
Still for intraday traders, if you want to buy BTC, here is some thoughts. First is, and actually why we stay away from longs for now - take a look, after impressive jump BTC stands too long in sideways action. This is not good for bullish scenario.
Now it seems that something like "Cup" or reverse H&S pattern is still forming here. So if you finally will decide to buy - currently is the point where you have to make a decision on entry. Because BTC has to start upside action right now, right from this point or it will not start it at all and drop. We suggest that 101-102K is an area where it would be better to out.
I mark this update as bearish in a row with our major view, but as we've said 101-102 pullback is not excluded.
Bitcoin: side trading still holdsAnother week in a row, BTC continued to move in a channel which indicates sort of side trading. It seems that investors are still not ready to choose the trading side, in which sense, BTC continued to move in a range between $96K and $98K. There were short attempts to head toward the $100K but without success, and also toward the $94K at one moment, but it was also without success. A range still managed to hold, but the question is for how long it will manage to hold in the future period?
The RSI is showing exactly the mood of the market. By continuously moving below the level of 50, it shows that the market is not ready to take action on either side. At the same time, moving averages of 50 and 200 days are showing two parallel lines, without any indication that convergence might start anytime soon. The cross is certainly not in the store for some time in the future.
In technical analysis, a move within a channel is the indication that the market will soon break the channel toward one side. At this moment, it could not be anticipated whether the break will occur toward the up or down side. Another fact evident on charts is that the GETTEX:92K holds as a strong support line. Currently, there are two scenarios which could develop on charts. One scenario includes a break toward the downside and the level of $92K. The second scenario would include a break toward the upside, where the first stop might be the level of $100K. Which scenario will prevail, we will see in the coming period.
BTCUSD next move(waiting for break-out)(14-02-2025)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (14-02-2025) (MID TERM)
Current price- 97,000
wait for the break-out
"if Price stay below 1,02,500 then next target is 95,000, 90,000 and above that that 1,05,000 .
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position.
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Bitcoin’s 1.5-2 year downtrend has begun. (Phase 1)As predicted in the previous analysis, Bitcoin saw its two-year price ceiling at around $109K when Trump entered the White House, and Bitcoin will have downtrend for about a 1.5-2 year.
This decline will have 3 phases, which I have shown in the first phase chart in 3 stages.
As you can see in the chart, in the first phase, Bitcoin will fall to around $81K and then rise again to near the price ceiling. But in my opinion, it will not be able to create a new price ceiling and will have a heavier decline towards the $50K-$60K range.
@JalilRafieefard
February 18, 2025
