Bitcoin seems to have reached its limits?As BTC has matured, it has revealed its limits relative to SPX. Any time the price rises above 15, a correction follows.
While it has not yet cracked I find myself violating my own rules again and compelled to share this chart with you BEFORE the crack.
Markets are volatile and I am simply trying to keep people from getting hurt. Do not make the mistake of thinking BTC is a safe asset.
Bulls best to take profits.
BTCUSD trade ideas
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Bitcoin - This Is Just Wonderful!Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTCUSD ) creates textbook market stucture:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
The entire stock market is selling off significantly but Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are still holding their strong levels. This is clearly a sign of bullish strength and even if we see a retest of the previous all time high, the overall uptrend remains perfectly valid over the next months.
Levels to watch: $70.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Bitcoin: it’s a crossDuring the first week of the general market sell-off, two weeks ago, the crypto market was sort of left behind investors' attention. However, the previous week brought some negative movements at the beginning of the week, which were diminished as of the weekend. The problem of margin calls from other traditional markets affected the crypto market at the start of the week. BTC reached its lowest weekly level at $74.860. The second half of the week was supported by news of tariffs delay for 90 days, in which sense, the market optimism was back, as well as the price of BTC. At the Saturday trading session, BTC tested the resistance line at $85K.
The RSI is still struggling to pass the 50 level. During Saturday, RSI reached the 52 level, but it still does not provide a clear signal that the market is heading toward the overbought market side. The most important weekly development was with MA 50 and MA 200 lines. These two MAs created a cross, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the upper side and is currently moving below the MA200 level. In a technical analysis this is called the “dead cross” indicating probability that the uptrend is exhausted.
The current general volatility in markets might still not be over, simply because it is driven by Government narrative related to tariffs, which is quite changeable on a daily basis. Markets have never been happy with uncertainty. To which extent this uncertainty will be transferred to the crypto market is hard to predict at this moment. Some indications of the recovery are modestly seen on charts. However, the question at this moment is whether this is a sustainable recovery? It is positive that BTC headed to test the $85K resistance level. In case that it is broken to the upside, the BTC will seek higher grounds, around the $ 87K and $90K resistance. However, the move toward the opposite side might bring BTC back toward the $ 83K or $80K support levels. Both options are currently open, because the market is not driven by actual sentiment, but the fear of potential consequences from tariff wars.
BTC on the Edge of Capitulation.Bitcoin trades on a critical make or break level of a big bullish butterfly from the topping arch.
This tends to be an imperatively important pivot point in a trend. In the strong trend the butterfly is an ABC correction and then we're into a new 5 wave climb. In the failure of the butterfly, this is the failure of the uptrend and we switch from a steady consistent downtrending action with pullbacks and new lows to out and out puking.
We are right on the verge of puking.
BTC is now trading at this level for the third time. Realistically, the best odds were off the first one. Being here a third time is quite sketchy.
Coupled with the fact indices are looking ultra rough and most of the alts are showing massively obvious big break signals (like huge head and shoulders etc) - this looks bad.
If this breaks there are no major supports before 55K. The next supports would be minor shallow bounce supports. We could downtrend to the 4.23 fib which is around 20K and if we get there a spike out of it would even make 10K viable.
BTC can drop over 70% from the price is trades today in a butterfly break.
We sit specifically on the decision level now.
If it breaks- it can be a very serious thing.
MUCH WORSE THAN THE LAST BREAKS.
BTC REBOUND? 〉$140,000 NEXTAs illustrated, I'm visualizing what the next impulsive wave could look like.
Price has broken out of a major daily trend line.
It makes sense for the week to have started trading lower to find it's low and potentially bounce with strength sometime this coming up week and into the next.
The next pivot area is between the $82,000 - $80,000 range based on previous week's lows and daily low levels.
An interesting buy opportunity is forming and the potential entry is illustrated as the "pivot area" marked in yellow.
Then we have a major pivot range near the $100,000 psychological price.
.
This could be a price where some short term traders get out "in case it's just a pull back before a collapse" type of decision.
We can't ignore how much price consolidated between 100,000 and 96,000; and so that is the next stepping stone for BTC before breaking to ATH's of at least $120,000.
My personal target is set at the 161.8% extension level as illustrated.
--
GOOD LUCK!
Persa
BITCOIN Are we back in business?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a miraculous comeback yesterday as it rebounded with force almost +12% from its session Low, following the 90-day tariff pause news. This rebounded has been performed on both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the key long-term Support of this Bull Cycle, but also on the previous High line, which is the trend-line coming from the previous Higher High of the Bull Cycle that has now turned Support.
As you see, during every Bull Cycle correction, this previous High line held both times before and it is doing so this time also. This justifies the incredible symmetry of this Bull Cycle but it doesn't only stop on the uptrend structure but goes back to the downtrend structure of the Bear Cycle. As you see, the extension of those previous High lines intersect the Lower Highs of the Bear Cycle. Symmetry at its very best.
At the same time, back to the current Bull Cycle, we see that the Vortex Indicator (VI) has already diverged, which has been consistent to both previous bottoms.
As far as what the target of this potential rebound/ rally can be, both previous main rallies hit at least the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. That sits now at $175000.
So do you think this Double Support rebound combo is putting BTC back in Bull Cycle business for a rally to $175k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could potentially rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 83,260.07
1st Support: 80,469.31
1st Resistance: 88,484.86
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BTCUSD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
BTCUSD
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell BTCUSD
Entry - 83829
Stop - 85403
Take - 81066
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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BITCOIN BULLISH TO $114,000 - $116,000In Q1 2025 I said I expect a retracement back towards $86,000 - $78,000 as Wave IV retracement.
BTC has now hit our Wave IV target. So according to my report & analysis, our next target is Wave V. Priced around the $114,000 region.
Market Structure Invalidation: $74,450❌
What factors could drive Bitcoin(BTC/USD) to reach the $68KGiven the current market conditions, Bitcoin has not managed to establish a new high in its recent upward movement. Various factors, including uncertainty regarding upcoming economic changes, reduced liquidity, the focus of financial institutions on the decline of stock markets, and the market's inability to react to sudden shifts, have contributed to the lack of a clear directional trend.
However, based on the presented analysis and chart review, it is anticipated that Bitcoin will reach the level of $68,000 in the coming weeks, paving the way for the initiation of a strong bullish trend. This upward movement is expected to first drive Bitcoin's price to approximately $130,000, and after a brief correction, the upward momentum may continue, potentially pushing the price to levels as high as $179,000.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Long Trade Setup – Breakout Strategy with TargCurrent Price: $80,724.28
Entry Point: $80,671.23 (just above current price)
Stop Loss: $78,052.44
Target Point: $88,573.60
Resistance Point: $82,260.90
📈 Trend & Moving Averages
EMA 30 (red): $80,220.87 — Short-term trend.
EMA 200 (blue): $80,788.61 — Long-term trend.
The price is currently between the EMAs, indicating potential indecision or a shift in trend. A break above both EMAs with momentum would confirm bullish strength.
🔑 Trade Setup Summary
Element Level
Entry 80,671.23
Stop Loss 78,052.44
Target (TP) 88,573.60
Resistance 82,260.90
Risk-Reward ~1:2.7 (approx)
📊 Analysis & Expectations
Bullish Bias: The chart suggests a long trade with a breakout strategy.
Volume and momentum confirmation will be key above resistance.
Resistance at 82,260.90 may cause a brief pullback before continuation to the target.
The stop loss is well-placed below a support zone and the most recent swing low.
✅ What to Watch For
Break and close above EMA 200 and resistance at 82.2K.
Bullish volume increase on breakout.
Price action around the entry zone (wait for confirmation candle if unsure).
BTC has upside chances until it holds above 81K areaMorning folks,
So, picture barely has changes since our last discussion. Right now we do not see any ready-to-trade setups. But suggest some bullish support to the market. After major XOP target has been reached - BTC has not dropped but remains in tight consolidation. This is more a bullish sign.
In general, we could suggest here a kind of reverse H&S shape. It makes us think that until BTC price is above ~ 81K area, it keeps chances on upside breakout. Drop below 81K will lead BTC back to the previous lows.
So, if you would like to buy - try to do this as closer to the lows of consolidation as possible. We consider no shorts by far.
Bitcoin: Shooting Star Breaks Wedge, Bearish Bias BuildsDownside risks appear to be growing for bitcoin with Tuesday’s shooting star candle triggering a bearish break of the rising wedge it had been sitting in over the past week.
Shorts could be established on the break with a stop above Tuesday’s high for protection. Some may opt for the 200DMA as a trade target, but the preference would be to look for a return to the lows beneath $75,000 hit last week.
The neutral momentum picture is also showing signs of turning bearish, with RSI (14) breaking its uptrend as a result of the latest pullback. While RSI is trending higher, it remains in negative territory, indicating downside momentum is only lessening—not reversing entirely.
Good luck!
DS