BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin Getting Ready To Continue Higher.Alright ladies and gentlemen once this 1hr TIME Cycle retrace is completed Bitcoin will continue higher . The 1hr bearish TIME Cycle will end tonight so because we expect a drop to at least the $102565 mark most likely it will take place overnight (L. A. time) and by tomorrow afternoon the 4hrs Bullish TIME Cycle will continue its move to test the $107000 line . If everything goes well as planned then from then on we will start seeing higher highs and higher lows for as long the Daily TIME Cycle remains in bullish mode.
Grab your popcorns and buckle up and enjoy the ride.
BTCUSD: Just hit the 1D MA50 and is rebounding.Bitcoin turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.000, MACD = 923.400, ADX = 25.014) as it hit its 1D MA50 for the first time since April 19th. That is a straight up buy signal, especially since the the current Channel Up with its 1D RSI HL structure, resembles September - December 2024. TP = 165,000.
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BTC will botom now(sorry I wrote this took quite a long time so the price has moved first)
Summary:
The recent drop in Bitcoin is primarily due to geopolitical tensions specifically the conflict between Israel and Iran. This is interpreted as a short-term market shock rather than a fundamental breakdown. Structurally, the bias remains bullish with expectations of a near-term rebound.
Why is BTC dropping?
The sell-off is driven by global risk aversion due to the geopolitical escalation. Investors are temporarily fleeing into cash and defensive assets like gold. However, this behavior is emotional and not based on a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s outlook.
Bullish Thesis:
* Bitcoin’s recent decline is not structurally bearish; it's a reaction to short-term uncertainty
* Historically, Bitcoin has shown strength and recovery following global shocks
* The current correction may provide a setup for a relief rally before any further downside movement
* Even if a deeper correction is ahead, the price is likely to move upward first to sweep liquidity or test resistance
Technical View:
* The current price level is a key area from a price action perspective
* BTC is showing signs of rejection at this key support, indicating potential buyer interest
* This level has acted as a significant pivot in previous swings, making it technically important for short-term direction
* If this rejection holds, it may serve as the base for a short-term recovery leg
Correlation Insight – BTC vs. Gold:
* Bitcoin has been showing a moderate positive correlation with gold, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical risk
* Currently, gold is approaching its major resistance or all-time high level
* If gold reaches this zone, it may trigger profit-taking or sell pressure, prompting a rotation of capital out of gold into BTC
* This potential rotation strengthens the case for a bullish move in Bitcoin, especially if BTC stabilizes around current support
Expectations:
* Near-term bounce or consolidation, followed by a potential breakout toward key resistance levels
* A shift in capital from traditional hedges like gold to crypto could act as a tailwind
* As volatility from the conflict settles, Bitcoin could regain its role as a risk-on asymmetric bet
Conclusion:
The pullback appears to be a temporary, sentiment-driven move rather than a trend reversal. BTC remains fundamentally strong, and the potential reversal in gold adds confluence to a bullish Bitcoin thesis. With price currently showing rejection at a key technical support level, this may be a strategic accumulation zone for mid- to long-term investors.
BTCUSD LONG✅ Analysis: BTCUSD has successfully broken its last 15m high (Break of Structure), signaling a potential shift in momentum. I’m looking at the pullback of this break to enter a long position and ride the upward move. Entry is at the demand zone. It might mitigate the fvg and return immediately.
✅ Target: Next key resistance or liquidity area above.
✅ Stop Loss: Just below the last low to minimize risk.
Favorite Fibonacci ChannelI posted about the Fibonacci Channel I regularly use to set my stop loss, mean reversal TP, and breakout TP. It's typically 0.5 for a mean reversion, and the breakout is typically confirmed with a strong move past the 1.27 or -0.27 threshold, with 1.88 as the expected move and Euler's e and Pi as the followed profit targets. The vice versa is true for negative Tp below the zero line. I trade it as low as the 1-minute time frame to as high as weekly, as it works very well, especially when it's preparing a squeeze.
BTCUSDBTCUSD is showing strong bullish momentum across indicators, suggesting a potential push toward $104,000. A trigger wave has just printed—indicating a fresh momentum leg up. VWAP has crossed above the zero line, further confirming the shift in momentum. As long as money flow stays positive and VWAP holds above zero, the trend looks intact. Targeting $104K as the next major psychological and technical level.
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin.
K1 and K2 verified a potential strong support,
If the following candles K5 or K6 close upon the downtrend line like K2,
Another bull run will keep climbing up.
It will be a good place to buy it around the downtrend line.
If the following candles consolidate around the resistance to verify the bullish momentum,
It will also a good place to buy it around the resistance.
On the other hand,
If K5 or K6 close below K4 to verify the resistance,
The market will fall to test the support for more times,
I will try to buy it at about 100K area.
Long-101618/Stop-100618/Target-120K
Long-103188/Stop-102188/Target-120K
BTC, ETH and SOL UPDATEWhat a nice move and a beautiful controlled pullback, bulls doing a great job.
Alright ladies and gentlemen lets get ready for the 2nd stage of this leg UP.
Once this little pullback is done ( probably by late Tuesday Pac Time) price should
start moving UP again to get rid off those shorts above 111000 and continue its journey
to break the ATH .We will follow the move until bears are ready to take over so Stay tuned.
BITCOIN: Retaking Its UptrendLooking good....looking good. Now that Bitcoin is retaking its uptrend move what's next?
Well knowing that at this point in TIME the Daily and the 4hrs entered in their Bullish TIME Cycle and the 1 hr its Bearish TIME Cycle we should expect a pause and retrace (small) because its 1hr TIME Cycle it just entered in its Bearish Cycle and that will make price to stop from going higher but remember the higher TIME Cycle overpowers the smallest Cycles so don't worry about it if you see a retrace because for at least the rest of week we should be seeing Higher highs and higher lows on the 1hr TIME Cycle. Now If price does NOT continue higher for at least the rest of week then we going to have a problem, but lets take one move at the TIME should we? Enjoy the ride.
BITCOIN : The Moment of Truth.Ladies and gentlemen the moment of truth has arrived for Bitcoin.
The set up will be completed once it test recent low by end of week (if not sooner).
Should start its journey to break the ATHs and continue higher and I mean IT MUST cause it will have only 3 more weeks to break the ATHs and advance to the $118k line before a pullback, NO IFs or BUTs. Once it bounces and if it fails to break res line $107k then door will be open for new numbers below $100k.
Place your bets ladies and gentlemen and buckle up we are heading for a wild...wild ride.
Bitcoin life cycle-stage One ending-Next cycle has to start NOW
There are 3 things to see in this chart
1) The Orange Arc of resistance. I have talked about this previously but to recap a little, it has its origins in Oct 2009 and has rejected EVERY ATH since then, as you can see on the chart. The Arc itself is part of a Fibonacci Spiral.
This Arc has begun to Squeeze PA against the lower trend line, that was formed in 2011.
And we are now in a position where PA MUST react or get pushed below the Long Term line of support.
This could be called Make or Break time for Bitcoin.
The Apex of this pennant is around Jan 2026
PA always reacts before the Apex.....99% of the time.
2) The Vertical Coloured bars are Trend Based Fibonacci Time, It begins on the 1st ATH in the channel that Bitcoin created. This channel is shown in the chart below
See how the Runs to the 2017 & 2021 ATH were all in a Bullish Green zone and how PA never retouched the lower trend line of support in this time
Since Mid 2021, we entered a Bearish Zone.
On the main chart, you will notice how this Fib Time has just ended.
3) The Trend based Fibonacci Extensions. Every single ATH rejected off a Fib extension.
The Root is at the 2009 Low and 1 is at the First ATH in the Bullish Fib time Zone.
The numbers here are all based off the 3,6,9 number sequence.
Lets look a little closer at the weekly chart
As we can see, PA got repeatably rejected off this orange Arc of Resistance and Current PA has been up there, trying to break through since 2024.
Many people have also commented on how PA has been so subdued this cycle and could this be reflected in the Fib Time showing us that we are in a Red Bearish Zone.
See how, from Mid 2021, when we entered a Strong Red zone, PA took a Deep dive off the Nov 2021 ATH.
Also note how this zone ended in late 2022 and in Jan 2023, PA began its current cycle Run. See the change in Colour ?
And Currently, while Bitcoin tries to break out of this squeeze, we were in a Red zone again....that just ended.
AND we can also see that we have not yet reached the 6 Fib Extension at 120,251 usd
The situation we face here is that if PA gets rejected off that Fib line, having just broken through the Arc, we could get pushed right back down under the Arc again. It is VERY STRONG RESISTANCE
This next move from Bitcoin HAS to be strong enough to take us up to the 9 fib line at 180,391 usd at a minimum. This way we can use the 6 Fib extension as support when PA cools off from a big push and so remain above the Arc and begin the Next long term cycle.
The Daily chart below shows us where we are right now
You can see how PA has repeatably tried to break above the Arc and been rejected Firmly Every time...so far, PA has avoided going right back down to the Lower trend line and has remained in near distance to this Arc..But we are running out of Time.
Recent attempts by PA have been Strong and I am sure that we will make it over but the real question is can we also get over that 6 Fib extension and stay above.
The weekly MACD certainly has enough strength to cope
Should we have a subdued Summer trading on Bitcoin, we will see this MACD cool off and be stronger before a sustained push near Autumn maybe.
To conclude, Bitcoin is under pressure to move out of its First Full Cycle.
It is getting Squeezed and now it is time for Bitcoin to prove it can cope with its new found "Adulthood"
The Next Big push, maybe later in the year, could very realistically reach 200K or more and this would place us Above that 9 Fibonacci extension I talked about earlier.
Of course, events could change and we could see PA collapse back below the Arc.
If this happens, all is NOT lost but it would certainly weaken the case for Long Term holders to continue doing so.
This then could create a Snownall effect and prices may tumble....And I will buy MORE....
Either way, we are in a HUGE moment for Bitcoin and I am privileged to be able see this all unfold...
Lets see what happens but, for me, I am Still VERY Bullish though Cautious....
We may have to revisit low 70K in the near future if Pa cannot get over this Arc and the 6 Fib extension
Market Moves Ahead? | DXY, Gold, and Bitcoin 📊 The markets are on edge—and this week’s economic data could trigger major moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY), Gold (XAU/USD), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD).
In this video, we break down:
✅ The latest CPI inflation expectations
✅ Fed interest rate outlook and Trump’s pressure on rate cuts
✅ U.S.–China trade negotiations and what they mean for global risk sentiment
✅ Technical levels to watch for DXY, Gold, and BTC
✅ Key events to watch this week (CPI, PCE, Fed speeches)
Whether you're a trader, investor, or just market-curious, this analysis will keep you one step ahead. 🧠💹
🔔 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for real-time market insights!
#DXY #XAUUSD #BTCUSD #Inflation #GoldPrice #BitcoinNews #FedWatch #MarketUpdate
BTC/USD 1H chartHello everyone, let's look at the 1H BTC chart for USD, in this situation we can see how the price moves over a strong growth trend line. However, let's start by defining goals for the near future the price must face:
T1 = 109164 $
T2 = 110207 $
Т3 = 111463 $.
Let's go to Stop-Loss now in case of further declines on the market:
SL1 = 107264 $
SL2 = 106314 $
SL3 = 105578 $
SL4 = 104781 $
Looking at the RSI indicator, we see
Return above the upper limit, which can cause an attempt to relax at the coming hours.
BITCOIN Daily Is In Bullish ModeNow that we have the Daily in Bullish mode we should be seeing higher highs and higher lows so don't worry about the small retraces that's normal within an uptrend move. This next retrace will be one example of what I'm talking about.
Hodlers on SPOT sell area will be above 112000 unless we see weakness on the trend .
We will keep updating so stay tuned and enjoy the ride.
Bitcoin H1 | Bullish rebound to extend higher?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 105,148.50 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 103,900.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 107,583.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
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BTC, where we can setup our sell positions.Hello, dear traders! It's Nika again.
I want to share this beautiful pattern and tell you some about its meaning...
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So, as we see here, we have this "triangular-shaped uprising pattern".
We got this pattern with its own few supporting and formatting levels.
Almost all of them are marked on our chart!
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The "usage" of this may be something like this...
First, we may see the price testing an important price level of pattern 96,000,00 very soon...
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After, if the price continues checking support levels below, we may also see the 91 & 89 K price levels.
You will profit from this price movement only if the price goes this way. :)
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Wishing you a happy trading day and much more success in your trades!
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If you have any questions, please comment or send a message.
Thank you!
BITCOIN ATH INCOMINGI want us to fill these imbalances. Not just wick them or graze them, but truly fill them. Sit in them. Let price spend time there.
Because time inside inefficiency is what gives others the chance to participate. It creates space for real transaction, not impulsive chasing but deliberate positioning.
Ideally, I want to see price return to the imbalance in discount, a zone where price is considered cheap. That’s where buyers are most willing to step in. That’s where the opportunity lies.
From there, I want to see a weekly body close inside the imbalance. Not a shallow reaction, but commitment. That confirms intent. Then we move, continue the bullish orderflow, and leave a fresh daily imbalance behind.
We’ve seen this play out before. In the example we studied, price initially wicked into the imbalance, then came back and raided the low. That second move was the invitation. It gave the market time to transact. You could clearly see volume building, buyers stepping in, and the imbalance being filled with purpose. Only after that did we get the explosive move to the upside. Not before. The strength came after the market gave participants time to load up.
Now, there is a top-side scenario on the chart where price could continue higher and form an imbalance above first. If the market is truly bullish, that’s possible, but it isn’t my preference. I’d rather see price reload deeper, offer value, and then expand.
The roadmap is simple: return, fill, confirm, and climb.
This isn’t just bullish continuation. This is controlled, calculated momentu
BTC long-term prediction
Hi all,
After initial reflection on Bitcoin's long-term prospects (see link below), I would like to make a more detailed analaysis for it in the next two or three years.
Development cycles and characteristics
I'll devide the evolution of BTC into three main cycles:
Cycle 0: From the birth of BTC until November 2021
Cycle 1: From Nov 2011 to Nov 2018. In this cycle, we have observed two Halving events (November 28, 2012) and (July 9, 2016
Cycle 2: From Nov 2018 to Nov 2025. This cycle encompasses the most recent halving event (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming one (April 26, 2024)
In every cycle, BTC has the following common price action
Main Trendline Support: it confirms the exponential increase in BTC's price.
Cycle High: it is intriguing to observe that Cycle Highs tend to materialize approximately 1 to 1.5 years after the halving event (or the birth) of BTC
Break-down event: It happened two times and both on November (2011 and in 2018). This marks the end of a cycle.
About historical BTC Highs
Since its birth, BTC has achieved four Cycle Highs. Connecting two consecutive Cycle Highs with a trendline reveals that the slope of this line is halved (devided by 2) between two Halving Events. This gradual decrease in slope appears rational and organic, as exponential growth is typically unsustainable. What's even more intriguing is that this 1:2 ratio aligns with the reduction of mined BTC by half after each Halving Event (or the block reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions).
Predictions for the next Halving and beyond
By considering the aforementioned characteristics in BTC's evolution, we can utilize historical patterns to provide potential insights into the future. Here's a possible scenario:
Leading up to the 4th Halving (scheduled for April 26, 2024), BTC prices are likely to align with the blue support trendline, and significant deviations from this trendline are not anticipated.
Following the 4th Halving, BTC may enter an accelerated phase, potentially triggering a major bull run.
A new price high could be achieved somewhere between May and September 2025, based on historical averages of the time needed for BTC to reach a new high after halving.
This new price high is projected to be approximately $120k.
However, it's essential to note that a subsequent bear market is expected to follow, possibly manifesting in November 2025. During this phase, BTC may experience a gradual decline, with prices potentially dropping as low as $30k.
It's vital to remember that predicting the future with certainty in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is challenging and often speculative. These projections are based on historical trends and patterns but are subject to various unpredictable factors.
What do you think about this analysis and what is your price prediction for BTC in the next bullrun?