BTCUSDC trade ideas
Long trade
Buyside Trade
Pair: BTCUSD
Date: Sunday, 16th February 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 8:15 AM (NY Time)
Trade Details:
Entry: 96,672.5
Profit Level: 97,635.5 (+1.00%)
Stop Level: 96,626.0 (-0.05%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 20.17
Reason: Observing price reached a pivotal demand level confirmed with a buyside momentum once the price reached 96,672.5...
Short trade
15min TF overview
Sellside Trade
Pair: BTCUSD
Date: Sunday, 16th February 2025
Session: London Session AM
Time: 7:15 AM (NY Time)
Entry 30min TF
Observed 4Hr TF
Trade Details:
Entry: 97,198.0
Profit Level: 96,863.5 (+0.34%)
Stop Level: 97,320.5 (-0.13%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 2.73
Reason: This sellside trade is based on market structure, liquidity sweeps, and session timing, proceeding from NY to LND Session.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Short Squeeze or Breakdown?Which Timeframe Seems Most Relevant?
• Indicator readings: The 4H and 8H remain the most interesting timeframes for spotting potential rebound opportunities. The ISPD Div Pro is low in satisfaction on 4H, signaling a potential reversal, while the HPI is high, which can indicate a temporarily oversold zone favorable for a technical rebound.
• Daily remains neutral-bullish, but slightly “overconfident” (ISPD ~0.80), which may indicate a saturation risk in the medium term. For swing positioning, refining entries via lower timeframes (4H/8H) is recommended to find an optimal entry and monitor the 100–102k$ resistance.
• Intraday : 2H provides a better buy-the-dip timing, allowing for more precise entries in anticipation of a technical rebound.
New insights from the Liquidation Map:
• The 98,500 – 102,000 $ zone is a massive liquidation area, which may cause increased volatility.
• If BTC breaks above 98,500 $ - 99,500 $, a short squeeze could trigger, pushing the price toward 102,000 $ or higher.
• Conversely, breaking below 95,000 $ would activate many long liquidations, increasing the risk of a drop toward 92,000 $.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC/USDT
By combining technical analysis with liquidation data, here are the critical areas to watch:
Support Levels:
• 96,000 $ (near Auto AVWAP Low 4H, a short-term pivot).
• 94–95,000 $ (corresponds to the last local low and an area of liquidity concentration seen on the OI LIQMAP).
• 91–92,000 $ (a strong support zone that could be tested in case of increased selling pressure).
Resistance Levels:
• 98,700–99,000 $ (confluence of 50D/100D moving averages, Tenkan, and a strong accumulation of sell orders).
• 100,000–102,000 $ (a major liquidation zone where stop hunts are likely).
• 104,000 $ (an important level matching the AVWAP High Daily).
Bitcoin ETF Flows and Market Impact
Analysis of Bitcoin ETF flows shows a mixed trend:
• Massive outflows from Grayscale (GBTC):
• Frequent and significant net outflows, such as January 27 (-457.6M$), February 3 (-234.4M$), and February 6 (-140.2M$). This suggests continuous institutional selling pressure.
• Positive inflows into other ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.):
• Some days saw strong positive inflows, such as January 31 (+368M$) and February 4 (+561M$), but these have not been enough to fully offset GBTC outflows.
• Latest data from February 10: Net inflows of +186.3M$, which could provide temporary support for BTC.
Implications :
• If ETF inflows continue to be positive, they could stabilize BTC and support a move toward 100–102k$.
• If GBTC outflows remain strong, selling pressure would persist, making a breakdown below 95k$ more likely.
Conclusion and Actionable Strategy
1. Market Context
• The market remains in a corrective A-B-C phase.
• A rebound toward 100–102k$ seems likely, but this move could still be a wave B before another drop.
• If ETF inflows remain stable, BTC could find support. However, if GBTC outflows persist, bearish pressure will remain strong.
2. Indicator and Liquidation Map Insights
• On the 4H, Investor Satisfaction is very low (~0.22), and Mason’s Satisfaction is above its SMA, signaling an imminent bullish impulse.
• On the Daily, ISPD is high (> 0.80), suggesting a medium-term topping risk if BTC reaches 100–102k$.
• HPI is more “overbought” on 4H (89) than on 1D (34), which favors a short-term rebound but with resistance risks ahead.
3. Suggested Strategy
• Buy pullbacks if BTC drops to 95–96k$ (or 92k$ if there is a selling excess).
• Target: Rebound toward 100–102k$, with partial profit-taking in this zone.
• If BTC closes above 102k$ (4H or Daily), a move toward 104k$ or higher is possible.
• If BTC falls below 91–92k$, a deeper bearish scenario (running flat) would be confirmed, leading to potential lower buy zones or short-term short trades.
Final Conclusion
Liquidation and ETF data confirm the previous analysis:
• The 98,500–102,000 $ zone is critical, where a short squeeze could push BTC higher.
• A rejection in this zone would increase the likelihood of a return to 92,000 $.
• ETF flows are a key factor: If inflows stabilize, BTC could hold up. However, renewed GBTC outflows would keep BTC under pressure.
Key Factors to Watch:
1. Upcoming economic data (US inflation, Powell’s speech) could trigger volatility.
2. Liquidation dynamics: A breakout above 98,500 $ could accelerate gains, while a drop below 95k$ would increase downside risk.
3. ETF flows: As long as inflows exceed GBTC outflows, BTC could remain stable. If outflows surge again, bearish momentum will strengthen.
Final Thoughts
• BTC is in a technical rebound phase (wave B or C) with 100–102k$ as a critical pivot.
• Failure to break this zone could lead to a drop back toward 92k$.
• The broader bullish trend remains intact, but this does not yet confirm the start of a full bull run.
BTC showing some signs of strength. We have been flirting with support long enough and I believe the bears are running out of strength.
We have confirmed and H12 liquidity run and H1 break of structure in the opposite direction. The pull back is the trigger.
Now we cross our fingers and touch grass AFK 🤞😅
A Macroscopic View Obviously I have no crystal ball and even if this plays out, it will not look this clean. That being, said, assuming we reclaim the monthly open, I would be looking for a retest of 106k. Hopefully the major trendline below will hold and then the price will bounce outside the current zone and move towards a new ATH. BINANCE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin BUY potentialVisible Higher Lows (regular rise) + AllTimeHigh level with strong resistance.
Narrowing triangle is moving the price.
Expected:
- A break above the 108 000 level and a retest soon.
There are one or two major rises left in a 4-year cycle.
Target price level 150-200k in 3-5 months.
Descending wedge breakout and retestBreakout and retest of the top of descending wedge. Looking for daily close to hold strong above .786 (104.6k). Strong Volume has supported this breakout and is looking to push price up from here. TP 117k
Invalidated if we close daily below top of wedge which aligns with key 100k level to hold.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC #bitcoin
Short trade
30min TF overview
Entry 4Hr
Structure Day
Tokyo to LND Session PM
Sat 18th Jan 24
11.00 pm
Sellside trade
Structure Day
Entry 4Hr TF
Sellside trade idea.?
Reason: Observing the premium (PD Array) a desirable price zone was reached and objectively seemed indicative of a sellside trade.?
Tokyo to LND session making a higher high.?
Target demand zone 30min TF
Entry 105459.5
Profit level 103155.0 (2.19%)
Stop level 105899.5 (0.42%)
RR 5.24
Long trade
5min TF Entry
Buyside trade
Sat 11th Jan
12.15 pm (NY time)
Pair BTCPERP
NY Session PM
Entry 94017.5
Profit level 94832.0 (0.87%)
Stop level 93914.0 (0.11%)
RR 7.87
Reason; Observing sell-side delivery on Saturday 11th January and reaching a pivotal demand zone on the 5min TF seemed indicative of a buyside trade.
Short trade
4Hr TF observation
Sellside trade
Sat 11th Jan
2.30 (GMT)
Pair BTCPERP
NY to Tokyo Session AM
Entry 94267.0
Profit level 93491.0
Stop level 94464.0
RR 3.94
Sellside delivery: The price action on the 5-minute TF seemed indicative of a sell-side trade based on the supply-demand narrative. I assume the price will retrace to the demand level (highlighted green) before CHoch to the upside.
Cryptocurrency Post-Halving Peak Timing Analysisx.com
Analysis of cryptocurrency peak timings based on historical patterns following
Bitcoin halving events. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19, 2024, and this analysis measures potential peak
timings from that point onward, drawing from past cycles. These estimates are derived from historical data!
There are many ways to measure peaks.
Yearly seasons to four year cycles. This method is purely based on Bitcoin halvings.