Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March? (Chart)🚀📈 Delayed Cycle Kicks Off This March? 🔥💡
March has (almost) arrived, and Bitcoin has officially confirmed $79,478 as major structural support—a critical level that had to be checked before the next move. This aligns perfectly with my previous idea of a delayed cycle playing out.
📌 Long above 79K
📌 Short below 79K
📌 Short-term target: GETTEX:87K+
With this structural support holding, I expect Bitcoin to push toward the next major test: $113,800. This is the all-time trendline, a level of historical significance.
🔑 What happens at 113K?
This is where Bitcoin’s fate for this cycle will be decided:
✅ A breakout above 113K could unlock a run to 150K - 200K, a true extension of this cycle.
❌ A terminal rejection at 113K could mark the end of this cycle, signaling a broader correction phase.
At the moment, the probabilities lean toward further upside, with an 80% chance of continuation. The 20% downside risk remains for a dip to FWB:65K-66K, but as long as Bitcoin stays above 79K, the bullish thesis remains intact.
💡 March looks strong, and I’m stepping on the gas today.
Let’s make it a powerful month! 🚀
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
video:
BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas
Orangeman vs The Federal Reverse: Season 1 (2018–2020)It all started in 2018... 🎬
🧱📈💼 March 21, 2018: Jerome Powell steps in as the new Fed Chair. Almost immediately, the Fed hikes rates from 1.50% to 1.75%, citing a strong U.S. economy.
💬📊🇺🇸 June 13, 2018: Another hike to 2.00%. Powell says the U.S. economy is “in great shape.” But markets? Not so thrilled.
🗣️📉🇺🇸 July 19, 2018: Enter The Orangeman—President Trump publicly attacks the Fed's policy, breaking tradition. He’s “not thrilled” with the hikes.
📉🏦 September 26, 2018: Yet another hike to 2.25%. The Fed stays firm. Trump? Getting louder.
❗😠💬 "I'm not happy with the Fed." – Trump
⚠️📉📉 December 19, 2018: Fourth hike of the year to 2.50%. Markets tank. Rumors swirl: Trump wants Powell gone.
🔥💣👔 Behind the scenes: Trump reportedly explores ways to dismiss Powell. The pressure is on.
📛🇺🇸📉 June 10, 2019: The battle heats up. Trump calls the hikes a “big mistake” and demands rate cuts.
✂️📉📉 July 31, 2019: Powell blinks. The Fed cuts rates by 0.25%—first cut since 2008. Trump tweets:
👎🐦💸 “Powell let us down.”
⬇️📉🔁 September 18, 2019: Second cut.
⚖️🔁🧩 October 30, 2019: Third consecutive cut. The Fed pivots completely. The Orangeman’s influence is undeniable.
🦠🧪📉 March 2020: COVID strikes. The Fed responds with emergency rate cuts.
🌀🧻💸 March 15 & 23, 2020: Rates slashed to near zero. QE infinity unleashed. Powell goes full printer mode. Bitcoin begins to stir...
Season 1 closes with markets melting down, a pandemic, and the Fed surrendering to zero rates.
But The Orangeman isn’t done...
And The Federal Reverse still lurks in the shadows.
Next up: tariffs, China, currency wars, and another campaign trail. 🐉💵⚔️
Season 2 is coming.
Stay tuned...
One tweets.
The other tightens.
Who controls our future?
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Diamond Pattern Context (4H BTC Chart)The structure forming from June 27 to July 8 appears to be a diamond top, a reversal pattern often seen after uptrends.
Price expanded (broadening left) and then started converging (right side) — classic diamond symmetry.
It has developed right at the macro trendline resistance (~109.5K), increasing its reliability.
Volume has declined during the right half of the diamond, which is consistent with pattern expectations.
✅ Implications of Diamond Pattern
Bearish Bias (Diamond Top):
If price breaks below the lower boundary (~107.8K), it confirms the pattern → potential move to 104.5K–102.5K zone.
Measured move ≈ height of pattern (109.8K–106K) ≈ 3.8K drop.
Invalidation/Bullish Flip:
Break and hold above 109.5K with volume would invalidate the bearish diamond.
In that case, it flips into a squeeze breakout with upside to 110.8K–111.5K+.
🎯 Conclusion:
The diamond top, combined with macro resistance and declining volume, strengthens the bearish breakdown scenario.
However, no confirmation yet — remain neutral to bearish unless either:
✅ Clean breakout >109.5K
🔻 Breakdown <107.8K with volume
BTC Forming Second Diamond: New ATH Targeting $115K–$120KAfter topping out at the previous ATH, Bitcoin formed a classic diamond top pattern which triggered a drop to the $98,115 level. Now, Bitcoin appears to be forming a second diamond — but this time, the breakout structure suggests a bullish reversal rather than a top.
This second diamond formation indicates consolidation before a strong upward move, potentially driving BTC toward a new all-time high between $115K and $120K.
Watch for confirmation of the breakout. If price holds above key resistance levels post-pattern, the bullish scenario gains strength.
BTCUSDT 4H Analysis | Apex Decision ZoneStructure & Price Action
BTC is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle (red trendlines).
Price is squeezing near the apex, suggesting an imminent breakout.
Strong defense at ascending channel support (~108K zone) + green trendline.
Lower highs indicate sellers still active, but higher lows reflect buyer strength too.
Price bounced from previous demand block (green box), now pushing toward resistance.
📊 Indicator Confluence
RSI: Curling up from mid-range (~52–55), no divergence, neutral-to-bullish tilt.
DMI/ADX: ADX rising slightly, -DI weakening vs +DI → potential trend shift brewing.
MACD: Histogram flat; momentum hasn't confirmed either side yet.
Wave Trend: Bouncing from mid-line, bullish cross may form if price breaks triangle.
Volume: Gradual decline = typical pre-breakout compression. Watch for spike.
Stochastic: Flipped bullish from oversold — early bullish bias.
🎯 Summary & Probabilities:
BTC is coiling near triangle apex — breakout likely soon.
🔼 Break above 109.4K with volume → 60% chance of move to 110.5K–111.5K.
🔽 Drop below 107.9K → 40% chance of fall to 106.3K–104.4K.
Bias: Neutral-to-bullish — confirmation needed.
Is the Fear & Greed Index Becoming a Victim of Its Own Success?I’ve noticed something about the Fear & Greed Index that rarely gets discussed:
Its reputation as a “contrarian indicator” may actually dampen market declines. When everyone sees “Extreme Fear” and believes it’s time to buy, the panic doesn’t deepen as it might have in the past—potentially muting major market lows.
This creates a feedback loop:
The index signals “buy the fear,”
Enough traders pile in,
The market stabilizes before real capitulation sets in.
When a widely-followed counter-indicator becomes common knowledge, it can lose its edge. In today’s markets, these signals may serve more as social safety nets than as true predictors of sentiment extremes.
Bottom line: If the “fear” signal stops working, or stops triggering buying, it could be a warning that the market’s safety net is gone. I wonder, is the VIX subject to the same mitigating effect?
The Fear & Greed Index has never been truly tested during a long term bear market.
But then it may partly be why we have not had one in so long.
Would love to hear your thoughts—has anyone else noticed this effect?
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-07-07 11:30 UTC📊 BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-07-07 11:30 UTC
🕒 Binance Spot
📆 July 7, 2025 | 11:30 GMT Candle Observations
───────────────
💡 Price: 108712.97 USDT
📉 EMA200 (Dynamic): 108938.31
🟩 Support Watch: 107512.97
🟦 Resistance Target: 109782.97
───────────────
🔍 We're observing price action developing below EMA200, with a recent Piercing Line formation at a noted dip zone. This setup may suggest buyers are attempting to reclaim short-term control.
⚠️ Key tactical support remains near 107512.97, where historical reaction zones and liquidity zones intersect.
📈 A move toward 109782.97 is being monitored as a potential resistance test, in line with local OBV divergence and recovering bid pressure.
📌 Market Microstructure Notes:
• Order Book Imbalance leaning toward bids (+0.45)
• OBV Trend: +10.17% vs 5-period MA
• Thunder Engine Volume Acceleration: ⚡ Observed
• Whale Ask Cluster: ~640k USDT near top of range
📉 No guarantees of breakout or reversal watching how price reacts around key levels. Maintain cautious positioning near support/resistance pivots.
Bitcoin: The night before the plunge? →104,000?
Bitcoin fell under pressure from highs, with short-term bearishness but strong long-term fundamental support.
1. Market fundamentals
Institutional holdings continue to grow
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeds $72 billion in size, dominating the market
MicroStrategy holdings increased to 597,000 BTC (about $63 billion), continuing to increase holdings on dips
Global Bitcoin ETF Net inflow of $4 billion in June shows strong demand for institutional allocation
Policy and regulatory progress
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to include Bitcoin in the "strategic reserve assets" to enhance its legal status
The SEC will make a ruling on spot ETF option transactions on July 15, which may bring new liquidity
The Trump administration plans to impose a 60% tariff on China, and market risk aversion may heat up again
On-chain data changes
A 14-year dormant address recently transferred 80,009 BTC (about $8.69 billion), triggering concerns about selling
The lightning network capacity exceeded 5,000 BTC, and Tether (USDT) completed the lightning network integration
II. Technical depth Degree analysis
(1) Medium-term trend structure (4-hour level)
Rising channel break: After the price peaked at $112,000, it continued to fall below the rising trend line support
Range oscillation formation: Currently, $98,000-110,700 constitutes the main trading range, and the middle track support is $104,000
Volume change: The recent decline is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, indicating that the short-term momentum is increasing
(2) Short-term trading signals (1-hour level)
Double top pattern confirmation: $110,700 was tested twice without breaking, forming a typical reversal structure
Moving average system short arrangement: EMA5/10/30 formed a death cross, suppressing price rebound
Key support level:
▶ First support: $106,500 (Fibonacci 38.2%)
▶ Second support: $104,000 (psychological barrier + previous low)
▶ Strong support: $98,000 (lower track of the range)
III. Trading strategy suggestions
1. Aggressive short position layout
Entry range: $109,000-109,500
Stop loss setting: $111,000 (above the previous high)
Target: $106,500→$104,000
Technical basis: downward trend line suppression + RSI top divergence
2. Steady retracement of short positions
Entry signal: 108,000-108,500 rebound encountered resistance
Stop loss setting: $110,000 integer barrier
Target: $104,000 (break down to see 98,000)
3. Long defense area
Key observation position: 104,000 US dollars (if there is a large volume to stop the decline, you can try long with a light position)
Breakthrough signal: Stabilizing 110,700 US dollars will restart the upward trend
IV. Multi-dimensional market outlook
Short-term (1-2 weeks):
Affected by technical suppression and whale movements, it is expected to maintain 104,000-110,700 range fluctuations
Focus on the effectiveness of 106,500 support, breaking down will accelerate the test of the lower track of the range
Medium-term (Q3 quarter):
Institutional continued holdings + Fed rate cut expectations constitute long-term support
If it breaks through 112,000 US dollars, it will open up to 120,000-125,000 upside space
Risk warning:
The SEC option trading ruling on July 15 may cause violent fluctuations
Global macroeconomic data (especially CPI) will affect market risk preferences
V. Professional trading suggestions
▶ Currently, the "rebound short" strategy is preferred, and stop loss is strictly set
▶ Long-term investors can arrange in batches in the range of 98000-104000
▶ Pay close attention to:
Daily ETF fund flows, changes in on-chain whale addresses (glassnode alert system), US CPI data (released on July 12)
Conclusion: Although the short-term technical side is bearish, the long-term fundamental support of Bitcoin remains solid. It is recommended that traders seize the opportunity of range fluctuations, operate flexibly at key support/resistance levels, and wait for new trend signals to be confirmed.
How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\ How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\
\ This article explores the foundation, key tools, and practical insights of Smart Money Concepts — and why it’s worth your attention.\
In today's fast-changing financial landscape, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) has become a popular strategy among modern traders. But what is SMC exactly, and how can it improve your trading decisions? This article breaks it down in a simple, professional way for traders at all levels.
---
\ What Are Smart Money Concepts?\
SMC is a trading approach based on the belief that large institutions ("smart money") like banks and hedge funds control most of the market's movements. These institutions often move the market in ways that confuse or trap retail traders. The goal of SMC is to understand and follow the footsteps of these big players.
Instead of relying on simple patterns or indicators, SMC focuses on:
\ - Market structure\
\ - Supply and demand zones\
\ - Liquidity pools\
By aligning your trades with the behavior of smart money, you can position yourself more strategically in the market.
---
\ Key SMC Concepts Explained\
\ Order Blocks\
Order blocks are zones on the chart where large institutions have placed significant buy or sell orders. These zones often lead to strong price reactions and act as hidden support or resistance levels. Order blocks are considered more precise than traditional supply and demand areas.
Example: ()
\ Fair Value Gap (FVG)\
A Fair Value Gap occurs when price moves sharply in one direction, leaving a gap or imbalance in the price action. These areas often get filled later and can act as magnets for price.
In a bearish move, the FVG is the gap between the low of the previous candle and the high of the next one. In a bullish move, it's the reverse.
Example: ()
\ Timeframe Consideration\
If you can’t monitor charts during the day, avoid relying on 5–30 minute setups. Consider 4H or daily timeframes for clearer signals and more manageable trading decisions.
\ Liquidity\
Liquidity refers to price zones where lots of pending orders exist. These are usually at obvious highs, lows, or trendlines. Smart money often targets these areas to trigger stop-losses and generate movement.
One common tool to identify liquidity is a "pivot point," which is a candle with a lower low or higher high than its neighbors.
Example: ()
\ Break of Structure (BOS)\
BOS occurs when price breaks above or below a previous high or low, signaling a possible trend continuation.
Example: ()
\ Change of Character (ChoCH)\
ChoCH happens when the market changes direction. For example, if price breaks a higher low in an uptrend, it may signal a reversal.
Example: ()
Combined with BOS: ()
---
\ How SMC Compares to Wyckoff\
The idea of "smart money" isn't new. Richard D. Wyckoff, a pioneer in technical analysis, laid the foundation for understanding market cycles driven by institutions. His price cycle theory includes four phases:
\ 1. Accumulation\
Smart money buys while the public is unaware.
\ 2. Markup\
Price rises as smart money pushes the market.
\ 3. Distribution\
Smart money sells into public buying.
\ 4. Markdown\
Price falls as the cycle completes.
SMC borrows from this logic but focuses more on structure and liquidity zones. Still, the core idea is the same: understand what big players are doing, and follow them.
\ For deeper insights into Wyckoff, explore additional resources focused on accumulation/distribution cycles.\
---
\ Summary\
Smart Money Concepts give traders a deeper look into market mechanics. By focusing on order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity, and structure breaks, SMC helps identify high-probability trade setups based on institutional behavior.
It may seem complex at first, but once you understand the basics, SMC can become a powerful tool in your trading strategy. Whether you’re new or experienced, aligning with smart money can improve your edge in the market.
BTC Forming Higher Highs & Lows | Watch the Wedge Breakout📈 BTC Forming Higher Highs & Lows | Watch the Wedge Breakout 📉
In the uptrend that started around $100K, Bitcoin is forming higher highs and higher lows on the 4H timeframe, which is in line with Dow Theory. Based on the orange lines I’ve drawn, it seems we are moving inside a rising wedge pattern.
🟠 Key Observations:
Breakout from either side of the wedge can trigger a trade, but I personally won’t enter based solely on the wedge.
If BTC breaks upwards, I’ll hold my existing long, not looking to short — because the mid and long-term trend is still bullish.
📌 New Trigger Level: The previously important level of $110,246.8 is now less relevant for me. The market has already rejected from $109,953.16, so that’s my new key level.
👉 I’ve placed a stop-buy order at $109,953.16 based on the 1H chart.
💣 Short Liquidation Zone (Updated):
Now ranges between $110,640 to $111,320
If you're looking to trade momentum:
RSI above 70 on 4H, or
Above 76.23 on 1H = potential trigger for long entries
👉 I'm planning to open a long position above $109,953.16 using a stop-buy order, with the help of the order book in the exchange.
⚠️ Currently, I don’t have a high-confidence stop-loss level — I’ll update as I see clearer price action.
🧠 Pro Tip:
Do everything you can to catch a BTC long position. If you understand risk management and position sizing, don’t be afraid of stop-losses — they’re part of the game.
If you're unsure what proper risk/money management is, go learn it now, or you will definitely get liquidated someday.
BTC analyses
Bitcoin has hit its own support level and choke point in the 4-hour timeframe, which could be a signal for further correction.
But dynamic support has held its own.
We will wait until the US market opens.
And enter when we see a break and see a signal.
Note: I am bullish on Bitcoin as long as it is above 183,200.
BTC 4HWe are in a week where volatility is expected to increase in BTC. A movement like the one on the screen may occur. Definitely use stops during this period. We are in a period when it is very difficult to analyze the market. We have become a market that moves with a lot of news. The market will surprise investors before the bull comes. Therefore, pay more attention to your stops than ever.
BTC in DistributionHi everyone. I am going to be moving my trading commentary back to Ideas rather than Minds so I can stay focused during the day, as well as having the added benefit of retrospective analysis. I do not trade BTC but have been tracking the price recently and believe it is gearing up for a big move. The current structure supports a bearish bias based on the Wyckoff Distribution pattern, which the price has been following in a textbook fashion. If this pattern continues, I believe Bitcoin will enter a bearish trend.
For the indexes I will try to post ideas for a bullish and bearish bias but for this quick post on Bitcoin, I am going to stick to the bear side.
Using Renko (Traditional, $500 window size) as my main chart, you can see the price broke out of a strong uptrend after the peak on May 22 (Buying Climax) and entered a potential distribution pattern. The secondary test (ST) set the lower band of the resistance zone, which the price has been testing and rejecting up until this point.
The labels are subjective but what we can confirm is that the price has broken through the bottom range (Sign of Weakness or Spring) but has been unable to break through the top of the range. An upthrust/false breakout above the top of the range would be a key level to go short, as this would take out the last remaining buyers, however the price continuing to stay below the resistance could be a sign of persistent weakness.
A rejection here would suggest that we are in Phase C, which is where momentum will build up on the sell side, eventually pushing the price through the bottom of the range and into a bearish trend.
Since Renko is the smoothest chart, I am also using range bars (less smooth) and standard candle sticks (most noise) to analyze closer setups.
On the range chart (20000R or $200), the price looks to be in an inverse cup and handle pattern, which if it holds would support the idea that we are in Phase C of the distribution pattern and the price will fail to break above the range again. Volume indicates that there is low interest at the upper levels, which resulted in the price moving down in Friday. We could see another push down after another period of low interest at the upper level.
Lastly, the 1h candle chart shows that the price has been relatively flat since June 25th and is being supported by a large volume node on the Volume Profile. There was large buying volume at the lower level, so if the price can stay above this node (~$106,700) there is a good chance that it will get pushed above the range, however if sellers are able to push it through this level of high volume, further downside could follow. This is why I would suggest waiting to see if this level holds before entering a trade. A false upside breakout (above $112,000) would be a safe area to go short, as it would be a quality setup with good risk/reward.
If the price is in Phase C and cannot break above the range, it would be a less ideal short setup, as the market could make a push to the top of the range at any time to clear out buyers. If this were to happen, I would prefer to wait for more confirmation.
To conclude, my idea here is:
Short (Solid Line): False breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or below $107,000 (higher risk)
Long (Dotted Lines): True breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or reversal $103,000-$98,000 (higher risk)
Thank you for reading and let me know what you think. More ideas to come.
BTCUSDT short-term analysishi traders
Let's have a look at BTC on 4h time frame.
RSI (14): Currently at 60.40, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not overbought.
RSI Moving Average: Around 50.92, confirming recent upward momentum.
MACD bullish cross suggest more upside in a short term.
Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above a recent horizontal resistance (near $109,236), now acting as support.
Bullish Continuation Expected
Support & Resistance:
New Support: $109,236
Resistance to Break: Around $111,742
✅ Conclusion:
This is a bullish breakout trade based on horizontal support/resistance, favorable RSI, and a clear RR setup. The trader anticipates a pullback and continuation toward $111.7K, using a tight stop just below the breakout zone to minimize risk.
BTC Smart money Bullish don’t be fooled !**BITCOIN MICROSTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: Institutional Accumulation Through Order Flow Divergence**
The current BTCUSD market structure presents a compelling case study in institutional accumulation mechanics, utilizing sophisticated order flow analysis to identify smart money positioning ahead of retail market participants.
**Technical Infrastructure Analysis**
The convergence of multiple analytical frameworks reveals a coordinated accumulation pattern across various timeframes and exchanges. Volume Profile Analysis on the primary chart indicates substantial institutional interest between $108,000-$110,000, with the Point of Control (POC) establishing a robust foundation for directional bias determination.
**Order Flow Microstructure Dynamics**
The Bitfinex footprint data reveals critical microstructural imbalances that traditional technical analysis often overlooks. The current candle displays a **-4.52 delta** with price resilience at $109,480, indicating aggressive institutional absorption of retail selling pressure. This negative delta combined with price strength represents a classic **Wyckoff accumulation signature** - large participants are utilizing iceberg orders and hidden liquidity pools to build positions without triggering algorithmic momentum systems.
**Smart Money Positioning Mechanics**
Three key indicators confirm institutional accumulation:
1. **Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence**: Both spot and perpetual markets showing negative CVD (-95.77K spot, -50.05K perp) while price maintains elevation, indicating off-exchange accumulation through dark pools and cross-trading networks.
1. **Open Interest Expansion**: The increase from 77.89K to 78.75K contracts with minimal funding rate pressure suggests fresh institutional capital rather than retail speculation.
1. **Volume Profile Concentration**: The heatmap reveals 105.85M in trading volume concentrated within the $108K-$110K range, representing systematic accumulation rather than random market activity.
**Institutional Arbitrage Mechanics**
The funding rate dynamics (0.001783 with periodic negative spikes to -0.000753) indicate sophisticated carry trade positioning. Institutions are likely utilizing the negative funding periods to establish leveraged long positions while simultaneously hedging through spot accumulation, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop.
**Market Microstructure Implications**
This accumulation pattern typically precedes **Phase C markup** in Wyckoff methodology, where institutional players transition from absorption to active price discovery. The thin volume profile above $112,000 suggests minimal resistance once the breakout occurs, creating conditions for rapid price expansion toward the $113,600 target.
**Risk-Adjusted Positioning Strategy**
The confluence of volume profile analysis, order flow dynamics, and institutional positioning indicators supports a high-probability long bias with the following parameters:
- **Entry Zone**: $109,000-$109,200 (current accumulation range)
- **Risk Management**: Stop loss at $108,200 (below institutional POC)
- **Target Sequence**: $110,653 → $112,000 → $113,600
- **Confidence Level**: 90% (upgraded from initial 75% based on footprint confirmation)
**Forward-Looking Market Structure**
The sophisticated nature of this accumulation pattern suggests institutional preparation for a significant directional move. The combination of hidden liquidity absorption, funding rate arbitrage, and volume profile concentration creates optimal conditions for sustained upward momentum once the $110,000 psychological resistance is cleared.
This analysis exemplifies how advanced order flow techniques can provide substantial informational advantages over traditional technical analysis, particularly in identifying institutional positioning ahead of retail market recognition.
*Position sizing should remain within 3-5% of total portfolio allocation, with dynamic risk management protocols adjusted based on evolving market microstructure conditions.*