Bitcoin: The night before the plunge? →104,000?
Bitcoin fell under pressure from highs, with short-term bearishness but strong long-term fundamental support.
1. Market fundamentals
Institutional holdings continue to grow
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeds $72 billion in size, dominating the market
MicroStrategy holdings increased to 597,000 BTC (about $63 billion), continuing to increase holdings on dips
Global Bitcoin ETF Net inflow of $4 billion in June shows strong demand for institutional allocation
Policy and regulatory progress
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to include Bitcoin in the "strategic reserve assets" to enhance its legal status
The SEC will make a ruling on spot ETF option transactions on July 15, which may bring new liquidity
The Trump administration plans to impose a 60% tariff on China, and market risk aversion may heat up again
On-chain data changes
A 14-year dormant address recently transferred 80,009 BTC (about $8.69 billion), triggering concerns about selling
The lightning network capacity exceeded 5,000 BTC, and Tether (USDT) completed the lightning network integration
II. Technical depth Degree analysis
(1) Medium-term trend structure (4-hour level)
Rising channel break: After the price peaked at $112,000, it continued to fall below the rising trend line support
Range oscillation formation: Currently, $98,000-110,700 constitutes the main trading range, and the middle track support is $104,000
Volume change: The recent decline is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, indicating that the short-term momentum is increasing
(2) Short-term trading signals (1-hour level)
Double top pattern confirmation: $110,700 was tested twice without breaking, forming a typical reversal structure
Moving average system short arrangement: EMA5/10/30 formed a death cross, suppressing price rebound
Key support level:
▶ First support: $106,500 (Fibonacci 38.2%)
▶ Second support: $104,000 (psychological barrier + previous low)
▶ Strong support: $98,000 (lower track of the range)
III. Trading strategy suggestions
1. Aggressive short position layout
Entry range: $109,000-109,500
Stop loss setting: $111,000 (above the previous high)
Target: $106,500→$104,000
Technical basis: downward trend line suppression + RSI top divergence
2. Steady retracement of short positions
Entry signal: 108,000-108,500 rebound encountered resistance
Stop loss setting: $110,000 integer barrier
Target: $104,000 (break down to see 98,000)
3. Long defense area
Key observation position: 104,000 US dollars (if there is a large volume to stop the decline, you can try long with a light position)
Breakthrough signal: Stabilizing 110,700 US dollars will restart the upward trend
IV. Multi-dimensional market outlook
Short-term (1-2 weeks):
Affected by technical suppression and whale movements, it is expected to maintain 104,000-110,700 range fluctuations
Focus on the effectiveness of 106,500 support, breaking down will accelerate the test of the lower track of the range
Medium-term (Q3 quarter):
Institutional continued holdings + Fed rate cut expectations constitute long-term support
If it breaks through 112,000 US dollars, it will open up to 120,000-125,000 upside space
Risk warning:
The SEC option trading ruling on July 15 may cause violent fluctuations
Global macroeconomic data (especially CPI) will affect market risk preferences
V. Professional trading suggestions
▶ Currently, the "rebound short" strategy is preferred, and stop loss is strictly set
▶ Long-term investors can arrange in batches in the range of 98000-104000
▶ Pay close attention to:
Daily ETF fund flows, changes in on-chain whale addresses (glassnode alert system), US CPI data (released on July 12)
Conclusion: Although the short-term technical side is bearish, the long-term fundamental support of Bitcoin remains solid. It is recommended that traders seize the opportunity of range fluctuations, operate flexibly at key support/resistance levels, and wait for new trend signals to be confirmed.
BTCUSDT.3S trade ideas
How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\ How to Trade Smart Money Concepts (SMC)\
\ This article explores the foundation, key tools, and practical insights of Smart Money Concepts — and why it’s worth your attention.\
In today's fast-changing financial landscape, Smart Money Concepts (SMC) has become a popular strategy among modern traders. But what is SMC exactly, and how can it improve your trading decisions? This article breaks it down in a simple, professional way for traders at all levels.
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\ What Are Smart Money Concepts?\
SMC is a trading approach based on the belief that large institutions ("smart money") like banks and hedge funds control most of the market's movements. These institutions often move the market in ways that confuse or trap retail traders. The goal of SMC is to understand and follow the footsteps of these big players.
Instead of relying on simple patterns or indicators, SMC focuses on:
\ - Market structure\
\ - Supply and demand zones\
\ - Liquidity pools\
By aligning your trades with the behavior of smart money, you can position yourself more strategically in the market.
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\ Key SMC Concepts Explained\
\ Order Blocks\
Order blocks are zones on the chart where large institutions have placed significant buy or sell orders. These zones often lead to strong price reactions and act as hidden support or resistance levels. Order blocks are considered more precise than traditional supply and demand areas.
Example: ()
\ Fair Value Gap (FVG)\
A Fair Value Gap occurs when price moves sharply in one direction, leaving a gap or imbalance in the price action. These areas often get filled later and can act as magnets for price.
In a bearish move, the FVG is the gap between the low of the previous candle and the high of the next one. In a bullish move, it's the reverse.
Example: ()
\ Timeframe Consideration\
If you can’t monitor charts during the day, avoid relying on 5–30 minute setups. Consider 4H or daily timeframes for clearer signals and more manageable trading decisions.
\ Liquidity\
Liquidity refers to price zones where lots of pending orders exist. These are usually at obvious highs, lows, or trendlines. Smart money often targets these areas to trigger stop-losses and generate movement.
One common tool to identify liquidity is a "pivot point," which is a candle with a lower low or higher high than its neighbors.
Example: ()
\ Break of Structure (BOS)\
BOS occurs when price breaks above or below a previous high or low, signaling a possible trend continuation.
Example: ()
\ Change of Character (ChoCH)\
ChoCH happens when the market changes direction. For example, if price breaks a higher low in an uptrend, it may signal a reversal.
Example: ()
Combined with BOS: ()
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\ How SMC Compares to Wyckoff\
The idea of "smart money" isn't new. Richard D. Wyckoff, a pioneer in technical analysis, laid the foundation for understanding market cycles driven by institutions. His price cycle theory includes four phases:
\ 1. Accumulation\
Smart money buys while the public is unaware.
\ 2. Markup\
Price rises as smart money pushes the market.
\ 3. Distribution\
Smart money sells into public buying.
\ 4. Markdown\
Price falls as the cycle completes.
SMC borrows from this logic but focuses more on structure and liquidity zones. Still, the core idea is the same: understand what big players are doing, and follow them.
\ For deeper insights into Wyckoff, explore additional resources focused on accumulation/distribution cycles.\
---
\ Summary\
Smart Money Concepts give traders a deeper look into market mechanics. By focusing on order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity, and structure breaks, SMC helps identify high-probability trade setups based on institutional behavior.
It may seem complex at first, but once you understand the basics, SMC can become a powerful tool in your trading strategy. Whether you’re new or experienced, aligning with smart money can improve your edge in the market.
BTC Daily Chart Analysis
Trend: BTC is currently trading within a short-term descending channel.
Strong Resistance: Zone around $110k–112k, multiple failed retests observed.
Key Support: Around $105k (Ichimoku Cloud upper edge & recent local bottom).
RSI: Clear bearish divergence indicating weakening bullish momentum.
Elliott Wave: Completed 5-wave impulse from $75k up to $112k, now correcting (likely waves 4-5 within the descending channel).
Fibonacci: Breakout above $110k targets approximately $117k (1.414 Fib extension). Failure to break may lead price back down toward $102k.
Probability:
Bullish scenario (35%): Clear breakout above $112k, targeting $117k.
Bearish scenario (65%): Rejection at $112k, potential retest toward $105k → $102k.
⚠️ Recommendation: Closely watch the $110k zone. If BTC fails to clearly breakout, consider defensive actions (reducing position size, risk management).
BTC Forming Higher Highs & Lows | Watch the Wedge Breakout📈 BTC Forming Higher Highs & Lows | Watch the Wedge Breakout 📉
In the uptrend that started around $100K, Bitcoin is forming higher highs and higher lows on the 4H timeframe, which is in line with Dow Theory. Based on the orange lines I’ve drawn, it seems we are moving inside a rising wedge pattern.
🟠 Key Observations:
Breakout from either side of the wedge can trigger a trade, but I personally won’t enter based solely on the wedge.
If BTC breaks upwards, I’ll hold my existing long, not looking to short — because the mid and long-term trend is still bullish.
📌 New Trigger Level: The previously important level of $110,246.8 is now less relevant for me. The market has already rejected from $109,953.16, so that’s my new key level.
👉 I’ve placed a stop-buy order at $109,953.16 based on the 1H chart.
💣 Short Liquidation Zone (Updated):
Now ranges between $110,640 to $111,320
If you're looking to trade momentum:
RSI above 70 on 4H, or
Above 76.23 on 1H = potential trigger for long entries
👉 I'm planning to open a long position above $109,953.16 using a stop-buy order, with the help of the order book in the exchange.
⚠️ Currently, I don’t have a high-confidence stop-loss level — I’ll update as I see clearer price action.
🧠 Pro Tip:
Do everything you can to catch a BTC long position. If you understand risk management and position sizing, don’t be afraid of stop-losses — they’re part of the game.
If you're unsure what proper risk/money management is, go learn it now, or you will definitely get liquidated someday.
BTC analyses
Bitcoin has hit its own support level and choke point in the 4-hour timeframe, which could be a signal for further correction.
But dynamic support has held its own.
We will wait until the US market opens.
And enter when we see a break and see a signal.
Note: I am bullish on Bitcoin as long as it is above 183,200.
BTC 4HWe are in a week where volatility is expected to increase in BTC. A movement like the one on the screen may occur. Definitely use stops during this period. We are in a period when it is very difficult to analyze the market. We have become a market that moves with a lot of news. The market will surprise investors before the bull comes. Therefore, pay more attention to your stops than ever.
BTC in DistributionHi everyone. I am going to be moving my trading commentary back to Ideas rather than Minds so I can stay focused during the day, as well as having the added benefit of retrospective analysis. I do not trade BTC but have been tracking the price recently and believe it is gearing up for a big move. The current structure supports a bearish bias based on the Wyckoff Distribution pattern, which the price has been following in a textbook fashion. If this pattern continues, I believe Bitcoin will enter a bearish trend.
For the indexes I will try to post ideas for a bullish and bearish bias but for this quick post on Bitcoin, I am going to stick to the bear side.
Using Renko (Traditional, $500 window size) as my main chart, you can see the price broke out of a strong uptrend after the peak on May 22 (Buying Climax) and entered a potential distribution pattern. The secondary test (ST) set the lower band of the resistance zone, which the price has been testing and rejecting up until this point.
The labels are subjective but what we can confirm is that the price has broken through the bottom range (Sign of Weakness or Spring) but has been unable to break through the top of the range. An upthrust/false breakout above the top of the range would be a key level to go short, as this would take out the last remaining buyers, however the price continuing to stay below the resistance could be a sign of persistent weakness.
A rejection here would suggest that we are in Phase C, which is where momentum will build up on the sell side, eventually pushing the price through the bottom of the range and into a bearish trend.
Since Renko is the smoothest chart, I am also using range bars (less smooth) and standard candle sticks (most noise) to analyze closer setups.
On the range chart (20000R or $200), the price looks to be in an inverse cup and handle pattern, which if it holds would support the idea that we are in Phase C of the distribution pattern and the price will fail to break above the range again. Volume indicates that there is low interest at the upper levels, which resulted in the price moving down in Friday. We could see another push down after another period of low interest at the upper level.
Lastly, the 1h candle chart shows that the price has been relatively flat since June 25th and is being supported by a large volume node on the Volume Profile. There was large buying volume at the lower level, so if the price can stay above this node (~$106,700) there is a good chance that it will get pushed above the range, however if sellers are able to push it through this level of high volume, further downside could follow. This is why I would suggest waiting to see if this level holds before entering a trade. A false upside breakout (above $112,000) would be a safe area to go short, as it would be a quality setup with good risk/reward.
If the price is in Phase C and cannot break above the range, it would be a less ideal short setup, as the market could make a push to the top of the range at any time to clear out buyers. If this were to happen, I would prefer to wait for more confirmation.
To conclude, my idea here is:
Short (Solid Line): False breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or below $107,000 (higher risk)
Long (Dotted Lines): True breakout above $112,000 (preferred) or reversal $103,000-$98,000 (higher risk)
Thank you for reading and let me know what you think. More ideas to come.
BTCUSDT short-term analysishi traders
Let's have a look at BTC on 4h time frame.
RSI (14): Currently at 60.40, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not overbought.
RSI Moving Average: Around 50.92, confirming recent upward momentum.
MACD bullish cross suggest more upside in a short term.
Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above a recent horizontal resistance (near $109,236), now acting as support.
Bullish Continuation Expected
Support & Resistance:
New Support: $109,236
Resistance to Break: Around $111,742
✅ Conclusion:
This is a bullish breakout trade based on horizontal support/resistance, favorable RSI, and a clear RR setup. The trader anticipates a pullback and continuation toward $111.7K, using a tight stop just below the breakout zone to minimize risk.
BTC Smart money Bullish don’t be fooled !**BITCOIN MICROSTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: Institutional Accumulation Through Order Flow Divergence**
The current BTCUSD market structure presents a compelling case study in institutional accumulation mechanics, utilizing sophisticated order flow analysis to identify smart money positioning ahead of retail market participants.
**Technical Infrastructure Analysis**
The convergence of multiple analytical frameworks reveals a coordinated accumulation pattern across various timeframes and exchanges. Volume Profile Analysis on the primary chart indicates substantial institutional interest between $108,000-$110,000, with the Point of Control (POC) establishing a robust foundation for directional bias determination.
**Order Flow Microstructure Dynamics**
The Bitfinex footprint data reveals critical microstructural imbalances that traditional technical analysis often overlooks. The current candle displays a **-4.52 delta** with price resilience at $109,480, indicating aggressive institutional absorption of retail selling pressure. This negative delta combined with price strength represents a classic **Wyckoff accumulation signature** - large participants are utilizing iceberg orders and hidden liquidity pools to build positions without triggering algorithmic momentum systems.
**Smart Money Positioning Mechanics**
Three key indicators confirm institutional accumulation:
1. **Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence**: Both spot and perpetual markets showing negative CVD (-95.77K spot, -50.05K perp) while price maintains elevation, indicating off-exchange accumulation through dark pools and cross-trading networks.
1. **Open Interest Expansion**: The increase from 77.89K to 78.75K contracts with minimal funding rate pressure suggests fresh institutional capital rather than retail speculation.
1. **Volume Profile Concentration**: The heatmap reveals 105.85M in trading volume concentrated within the $108K-$110K range, representing systematic accumulation rather than random market activity.
**Institutional Arbitrage Mechanics**
The funding rate dynamics (0.001783 with periodic negative spikes to -0.000753) indicate sophisticated carry trade positioning. Institutions are likely utilizing the negative funding periods to establish leveraged long positions while simultaneously hedging through spot accumulation, creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop.
**Market Microstructure Implications**
This accumulation pattern typically precedes **Phase C markup** in Wyckoff methodology, where institutional players transition from absorption to active price discovery. The thin volume profile above $112,000 suggests minimal resistance once the breakout occurs, creating conditions for rapid price expansion toward the $113,600 target.
**Risk-Adjusted Positioning Strategy**
The confluence of volume profile analysis, order flow dynamics, and institutional positioning indicators supports a high-probability long bias with the following parameters:
- **Entry Zone**: $109,000-$109,200 (current accumulation range)
- **Risk Management**: Stop loss at $108,200 (below institutional POC)
- **Target Sequence**: $110,653 → $112,000 → $113,600
- **Confidence Level**: 90% (upgraded from initial 75% based on footprint confirmation)
**Forward-Looking Market Structure**
The sophisticated nature of this accumulation pattern suggests institutional preparation for a significant directional move. The combination of hidden liquidity absorption, funding rate arbitrage, and volume profile concentration creates optimal conditions for sustained upward momentum once the $110,000 psychological resistance is cleared.
This analysis exemplifies how advanced order flow techniques can provide substantial informational advantages over traditional technical analysis, particularly in identifying institutional positioning ahead of retail market recognition.
*Position sizing should remain within 3-5% of total portfolio allocation, with dynamic risk management protocols adjusted based on evolving market microstructure conditions.*
BTC/USDT – Breakout Brewing? Eyes on 110K+ Timeframe: 4H | Exchange: Binance | Date: July 🧠 What’s Happening?
Bitcoin just fired out of a bullish wedge with strong volume and is marching inside a clean rising channel.
All eyes now on the golden Fibonacci zone — and beyond!
🎯 Key Levels
📍 Immediate Resistance:
→ $109,940 – Holding at the 0.5 Fib
→ $110,580 – $111,491: Golden Pocket (0.618–0.786 Fib)
→ $112,652: Full Fib Extension + Channel Top
📍 Support Zone:
→ $108,200 – $107,800: Must hold for bulls
→ Below $107.5K = momentum shift ⚠️
🔍 Technical Signals Lighting Up
✅ Bullish breakout from descending wedge
✅ Strong volume confirms breakout intent
✅ RSI at 57+, trending upward
✅ MACD crossing bullish
✅ Stochastic RSI curling from oversold
✅ ADX increasing – trend gaining strength
🚀 Trade Setup (Idea Only!)
Above $110K = bullish continuation
Next stops: $111.5K – $112.6K
Hold $108K = bullish structure intact
Below $107.5K = reevaluate bias
🧨 Summary:
Bulls have the momentum — but can they punch through the golden zone?
$110K+ is the battleground. Break it, and we’re off to $112K+.
💬 What’s your bias? Bulls or bears? Drop a chart or comment below 👇
🔔 Follow for daily setups & sharp market commentary!
BTC Roadmap to 220KApril 9, 2025 marked a historic shift in the Bitcoin market structure. On that day, institutional giants and sovereign funds aggressively stepped in, buying back BTC in large volumes as price retraced to its previous all-time high (ATH) zone around $69K. This wasn't just a typical dip buy — it was a coordinated accumulation event that triggered the fastest 30-day rally in Bitcoin history, pushing the price above $90K, then $100K, and now consolidating just under $110K.
BTC is currently hovering near $110K — testing it for the fourth time over the past two months. This level has evolved into a major macro flip zone, where previous all-time resistance is attempting to become new long-term support.As of now nee just one ignite candle to break major resistance above 110K then will enter to price discovery zone.
HINT:
The current Bitcoin production cost (mining break-even) sits around $100K due to:
Post-halving mining difficulty
Higher energy costs
Institutional-scale mining operations
This implies miners and institutions need BTC > $100K to remain profitable, aligning them on the same side: supporting price, not dumping.
#BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #BitcoinBreakout #PriceDiscovery #InstitutionalBuy #CryptoTradeSetup #BTCMacro #BTCBullRun #CryptoTA #BitcoinHalving #CryptoSupercycle #TradingView
BitcoinHello everyone, I have a opinion about bitcoin chart I analyzed bitcoin chart at monthly timeframe and it obviously related to Elliot waves and I combined it with price action and I extract some good information about Price Road of bitcoin so in my opinion bitcoin going to decrease and I show that on chart how bitcoin price will be behave.
Have a good trade
"Bitcoin to $110,000? Here's What the Charts Are Saying!"📈 Is Bitcoin Going to $110,000?
In this video, we analyze Bitcoin’s current price action and key resistance levels to understand whether BTC is gearing up for a breakout to $110K. Using technical indicators, market sentiment, and on-chain data, we break it down in simple terms so anyone can follow.
#BTC Update #3 – July 5, 2025🟠 #BTC Update #3 – July 5, 2025
Bitcoin is currently in a corrective phase following its latest impulsive move. To confirm that the correction is complete, I’d need to see a fresh impulsive leg. Until then, price may continue to pull back .
Looking at the liquidation heatmap, I’m seeing stacked liquidity between $107,100 and $106,500 . Based on that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC wick down toward $106,000, sweep that zone, and potentially initiate a long-biased impulsive bounce.
If that bounce materializes, my first target is the $110,000 region . It’s also worth noting that Bitcoin is currently sitting inside a supply zone, which could add short-term resistance before any breakout.
BTCUSDT This is a 4-hour candlestick chart for BTCUSDT on Binance, covering the period from June 4 to July 4, 2025. The chart includes technical analysis annotations such as:Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (LH) indicating an uptrend.Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) suggesting a potential downtrend or consolidation.CHOCH (Change of Character) marking a shift in market structure.BOS (Break of Structure) indicating a break in the previous trend.A red horizontal line at 110,530.17, possibly a resistance level.An orange dashed line around 108,259.99, possibly a key support or pivot level.Price levels on the right (e.g., 110,530.17, 108,628.21) showing recent highs and the current price at 01:01:45.The chart shows a recent upward movement followed by a sharp drop, with the price currently near 105,000. This could indicate a rejection at resistance or a breakout attempt.
Overall, the market is currently trending down in the short term, but there is a chance for a comeback if support holds. Monitor the key levels of 105,000 and 102,500 for further confirmation.