Bitcoin: The night before the plunge? →104,000?
Bitcoin fell under pressure from highs, with short-term bearishness but strong long-term fundamental support.
1. Market fundamentals
Institutional holdings continue to grow
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) exceeds $72 billion in size, dominating the market
MicroStrategy holdings increased to 597,000 BTC (about $63 billion), continuing to increase holdings on dips
Global Bitcoin ETF Net inflow of $4 billion in June shows strong demand for institutional allocation
Policy and regulatory progress
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to include Bitcoin in the "strategic reserve assets" to enhance its legal status
The SEC will make a ruling on spot ETF option transactions on July 15, which may bring new liquidity
The Trump administration plans to impose a 60% tariff on China, and market risk aversion may heat up again
On-chain data changes
A 14-year dormant address recently transferred 80,009 BTC (about $8.69 billion), triggering concerns about selling
The lightning network capacity exceeded 5,000 BTC, and Tether (USDT) completed the lightning network integration
II. Technical depth Degree analysis
(1) Medium-term trend structure (4-hour level)
Rising channel break: After the price peaked at $112,000, it continued to fall below the rising trend line support
Range oscillation formation: Currently, $98,000-110,700 constitutes the main trading range, and the middle track support is $104,000
Volume change: The recent decline is accompanied by an increase in trading volume, indicating that the short-term momentum is increasing
(2) Short-term trading signals (1-hour level)
Double top pattern confirmation: $110,700 was tested twice without breaking, forming a typical reversal structure
Moving average system short arrangement: EMA5/10/30 formed a death cross, suppressing price rebound
Key support level:
▶ First support: $106,500 (Fibonacci 38.2%)
▶ Second support: $104,000 (psychological barrier + previous low)
▶ Strong support: $98,000 (lower track of the range)
III. Trading strategy suggestions
1. Aggressive short position layout
Entry range: $109,000-109,500
Stop loss setting: $111,000 (above the previous high)
Target: $106,500→$104,000
Technical basis: downward trend line suppression + RSI top divergence
2. Steady retracement of short positions
Entry signal: 108,000-108,500 rebound encountered resistance
Stop loss setting: $110,000 integer barrier
Target: $104,000 (break down to see 98,000)
3. Long defense area
Key observation position: 104,000 US dollars (if there is a large volume to stop the decline, you can try long with a light position)
Breakthrough signal: Stabilizing 110,700 US dollars will restart the upward trend
IV. Multi-dimensional market outlook
Short-term (1-2 weeks):
Affected by technical suppression and whale movements, it is expected to maintain 104,000-110,700 range fluctuations
Focus on the effectiveness of 106,500 support, breaking down will accelerate the test of the lower track of the range
Medium-term (Q3 quarter):
Institutional continued holdings + Fed rate cut expectations constitute long-term support
If it breaks through 112,000 US dollars, it will open up to 120,000-125,000 upside space
Risk warning:
The SEC option trading ruling on July 15 may cause violent fluctuations
Global macroeconomic data (especially CPI) will affect market risk preferences
V. Professional trading suggestions
▶ Currently, the "rebound short" strategy is preferred, and stop loss is strictly set
▶ Long-term investors can arrange in batches in the range of 98000-104000
▶ Pay close attention to:
Daily ETF fund flows, changes in on-chain whale addresses (glassnode alert system), US CPI data (released on July 12)
Conclusion: Although the short-term technical side is bearish, the long-term fundamental support of Bitcoin remains solid. It is recommended that traders seize the opportunity of range fluctuations, operate flexibly at key support/resistance levels, and wait for new trend signals to be confirmed.
