BTC Potential Spot Buy $76kAgain: breaking down without a valid reason: this time you can speak of a mini-MSB but if it was a relevant one price shouldn't have consolidated at the highs that long. This makes the breakdown now weak.
Also: price falling down against previous structure without having some breakdown PA at the highs makes the breakdown even weaker (previous structure 'washes' the strength out the breakdown.
If price would fall straight down to the 76k lowest low I think this is a spot buy at the lowest low. No trade as there isn't a valid SL.
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The question now is: do you buy with a larger % of the allocated capital or not?
I think, if price would go straight down, so without creating new structure during the breakdown, larger % is a valid option. But if there would be structure created, 1/3 or 1/2 is better.
Why?
New structure creates resistance for price going back up from the lows.
If price would get above structure, the likelyhood of price going further up is higher so you would want to buy more, and if this new structure is created close to the lowest low you don't miss out much on the new buys. To make this more clear: let's say price would fall straight down without creating structure like it's doing now, the last structure there is would then be the current structure with the top of this structure being 88k. If you would want to wait for more 'validation' of price showing strength, you would then have to wait for price to close above 88k, missing out on 88k-76k= 12k.
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But yeah, a 100% buy is a bit stupid, too gambly. Think 1/2 is better and then wait for some time spend (1D close above level) above level and then buy the other 1/2 with hopefully not much of a price gap.
Because: what if price just breaks straight through the level? I have my reasons for it being unlikely but who am I to say it can't happen? There is a reason I've said I don't buy levels blindly: so far it has never worked out! So maybe even buying 1/3 is better...
Yes: 1/3 max. There's no need to act tough by going all in to prove your conviction.
