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BTCUSDT.5L trade ideas

Bitcoin Btc usdt Daily analysis Time frame daily As you can see byc is moving up and down in the green tunnel My last target (yellow rectangle) is touched and byc couldn't break the upper side of tunnel Now, my target is 120.000 $ ( red rectangle) If this time , btc can break the green uptrend line as resistance line , my next target is 145.000$, 👉👉Important notice 👈👈 Here is not suitable Time for entry the long or short position because btc is in the middle of the tunnel
Long
by Habib-Tafazoli
Fibonacci Extensions: Mapping Market Psychology Beyond the TrendHello, traders! 💫 Fibonacci numbers have traveled far from ancient Italian math to modern trading charts. In technical analysis, Fibonacci Extensions aren’t just mystical ratios; they’re a structured way to project potential price targets based on crowd psychology and trend continuation. But what are they really, and why do so many traders draw those lines with near-religious fervor? 🧠 A Quick Historical Detour Leonardo Fibonacci introduced the sequence to the West in the 13th century based on patterns he observed in Indian mathematics. The key idea is that each number in the sequence is the sum of the two before it: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21... When you divide specific numbers in the sequence, you get ratios that repeat throughout nature — and, intriguingly, financial markets. These include: 0.618 (the “golden ratio”) 1.618 2.618, and so on. While Fibonacci Retracements look backward to gauge potential pullbacks, Fibonacci Extensions look forward to mapping possible continuation levels after a price move. 📊 Fibonacci Extensions To use Fibonacci Extensions, you need three points: The Start of a Trend (Point A) The End of the Trend or Impulse Move (Point B) A Retracement Low/High Where Price Bounces or Consolidates (Point C) This ABC move applies Fibonacci ratios to project levels beyond point B, helping traders visualize where the price might go if the trend continues. Common Extension Levels Include: 1.272 1.618 (golden ratio) 2.0 2.618 Each level acts as a kind of psychological milestone — not a guarantee, but a place where market participants may take profits, reassess, or react. 🔎 Let’s Take a Real Example: BTC/USDT Weekly It's not that Fibonacci numbers have magical power. The theory is based on self-fulfilling behavior. When enough traders watch the same levels — and act on them — they can influence real outcomes. The chart illustrates how Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to understand the depth and structure of a correction during a bullish cycle. Low (~$4,783) in March 2020 (COVID-19 Сrash) to the High (~$65,834) in November 2021 (Bull Market Peak) From there, the price corrected throughout 2022–2023. Let’s look at what happened at each level — and what it tells us on the graph. 🔍 Why This Matters Your retracement levels aren’t just lines — they mapped the psychology of the market: Investors Testing Conviction at 0.5 Panic at 0.618 Capitulation Near 0.786 — but Without Full Breakdown And Finally: A Rebound in 2023, Leading to New Highs in 2025 This kind of structure is textbook Fibonacci behavior — and is part of why retracement levels remain a core part of institutional technical analysis. ⚖️ Final Thought Fibonacci Extensions are not about telling you where the price will go — they’re about framing where the price might go if the current trend keeps moving. It’s a lens through which to read market psychology, momentum, and expectation. Combined with volume, structure, and broader trend context, they potentially help analysts build a more nuanced market narrative. And maybe Leonardo Fibonacci would have appreciated that his 800-year-old math is still trying to decode modern human emotion, just on candlestick charts.
Education
by WhiteBIT
BTCUSDT 13R Trade Breakdown: Deep Crab Pattern + SMC Precision Hello Traders! If you enjoyed my previous post on combining Harmonic Patterns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for high-precision, high-risk-to-reward trades, then you're going to love this breakdown on BTCUSDT. If you haven’t checked out my earlier content, make sure to scroll below this post and see that first—it sets the foundation for what we’re diving into here. 📈 BTCUSDT Trade Breakdown: Harmonic x SMC Precision Entry This analysis was originally shared around three weeks ago on my YouTube channel, and if you were with me live, you’ll remember I was closely watching for a Bullish Deep Crab Pattern to complete before considering a LONG position. Let’s walk through the setup and outcome step-by-step: 🕰 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME: Price was reacting to a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) and had filled the imbalance. As shown in the chart: 🔍 SETUP: Strategy Confirmation Important Reminder: Just because price hits a key level doesn’t mean we jump in to buy or sell. ✅ There must be a confirmed Harmonic Pattern that aligns with the key SMC level. On the Daily Chart, we identified a valid Bullish Deep Crab Pattern: B-point at 0.886 PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) at 1.618 FIB Extension This PRZ aligned perfectly with the key level identified on the Weekly chart. 🎯 ENTRY STRATEGY (15-Minute Chart): We zoomed into the 15M chart for an SMC-based entry. Supply-to-demand flip confirmed with a visible liquidity inducement—textbook confirmation. Entry was just a few pips below the recent swing low to limit downside risk in case of invalidation. Take Profits (TPs) were set using standard Deep Crab targets, based on FIB retracements from A to D: ✅ TP1 at 0.382 ✅ TP2 at 0.618 ✅ TP3 at 0.786 ✅ TRADE OUTCOME: Entry was cleanly triggered and the price followed through as expected. All three profit levels were successfully hit: ✅ TP1 ✅ TP2 ✅ TP3 We secured an impressive 13R on this single BTCUSDT trade —a solid example of what happens when Harmonics and Smart Money Concepts are aligned. 💬 Your Turn: Did you take this BTC trade using a different strategy? Or did you spot the pattern and enter alongside me? Drop your thoughts and experiences below this analysis—let’s learn together!
Education
by TheGreatCapital
Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary CodeIn-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four Halvings Authors: SanTi Li, Nahida, Legolas Abstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold." 1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation Rate Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply. This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold. Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate Chart As shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply. As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years. In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%. Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025) In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests. At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation. ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin Halvings Since Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge. Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving Cycles The chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases. Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588) 1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events, Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example: ●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior ●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months prior This phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal. 2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving, Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin: ●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year ●2016: 286.29% increase ●2020: 475.64% increase ●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k) Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026. 3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary Reference After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving. 4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After Halving Based on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving: ●2012: 9,237.15% increase ●2016: 2,825.84% increase ●2020: 700.28% increase In the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving. Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency. The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential. Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart III. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value The value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design. 1. Scarcity As previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective. Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold". 2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus Mechanism Bitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack. 3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency Devaluation As shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money. 4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network Design Bitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies: ●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures. ●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability. ●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block. ●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries. These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching. 5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar Transition The world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities. 6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea) Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization. Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation ●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization) ●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles ●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent. 4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value Trends Through the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn: Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital. Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”. Disclaimer on Perspectives: Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability. Risk Warning: This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
by OuChiBoy
Stromm | BITCOIN Are You BULLISH Enough? When you zoom out to the 12-hour chart , Bitcoin actually looks really clean right now. Since my entry at $75,800, we’ve seen a solid 25% rally that’s clearly shifted the momentum back to bullish. - But even with that move, I’m not fully convinced yet that we’re on our way straight to a new all-time high. There’s still a lot of work to be done before that happens. Right now, I’m watching the zone between $96,400 and $102,300 as a potential reaction area — basically a spot where we could see Wave B complete. We’re hovering around the Yearly Open, which historically acts as both strong support and resistance, and we’re also right at the Previous Monthly High. If BTC can hold this zone, we absolutely could push higher toward $102K. However, I don’t think it’s realistic yet to expect a clean shot to $110K without a deeper pullback first. Most likely, we’ll need another flush lower to reset before any major breakout. That said, I’m still long and staying patient. If we do somehow rip toward $120K, I’m already well-positioned. And if we get another sell-off? I’ll be adding even more — no hesitation there. Of course, a lot of this depends on how the political and macro situation evolves. There’s definitely a world where the perfect narrative gets laid down, and we rocket to $120K. But there’s also a world where that doesn't happen — and it’s important to stay mentally flexible between "must happen," "could happen," and "might not happen at all."
Long
by stromm
1
BTC Fractal Update!!CRYPTOCAP:BTC is repeating the same ABC pattern that led to past 70 %+ rallies. We're now at a decision point — next weekly close will confirm: Scenario 1: Rejection Below $96K (Circle 1) → Likely dip to $78K–$80.5K (channel bottom + 0.5 Fib) → Final shakeout before major move. Scenario 2: Breakout Above $96K (Circle 2) → Retest at $90.5K → Then rally toward $160K+ begins (Circle 3) BTC is hovering near the $100K mark — up 5% from the $96K breakout — mirroring the previous breakout from $63K (Circle 2), where it surged to $ 67K (+5%) before a sharp retest to $59.2K, followed by a major rally. A similar healthy retest could be on the cards before CRYPTOCAP:BTC breaks its ATH! If you find this analysis helpful, please hit the like button to support my content! Share your thoughts in the comments, and feel free to request any specific chart analysis you’d like to see. Happy Trading!!
by persis10t
BTCUSDT Breakout –8 May- Eyes on $106K NextIdea: Bitcoin has broken out of a prolonged accumulation range with strong bullish confirmation across multiple timeframes. The price has reclaimed structure above GETTEX:98K and is pushing higher within a rising channel. This sets the stage for a potential move towards the $106K–$110K zone. Why: Confirmed Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) on 4H and 1D charts. Price broke out of the previous resistance zone and is holding above the POC near $98K. RSI is trending above 70 – showing strength, not exhaustion. ADX and DMI indicate a strong bullish trend – buyers (blue) are firmly in control. MACD histogram turning green again – supporting upside continuation. Volume is increasing, confirming genuine momentum behind the move. How to Trade: Entry: Buy on retest near GETTEX:98K –$99K. Target: $106K (first target), $110K (channel top). Stop-loss: Below $96K (invalidates the bullish structure). Risk Tip: Use proper position sizing – breakout trades can be volatile. Protect capital, let profits run.
Long
by MyTradingJournal6th