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BTCUSDT.5L trade ideas

btc usd UPDATE In the latest analysis, I highlighted the potential for a drawdown due to the completion of the last three months' bullish phase and the looming liquidation of over $1 billion around the 100K level. I initially forecasted a strong likelihood of the price reaching 100K, driven by a breakout from the range that had held the price in equilibrium since December 20th. Key Levels and Targets: First Target: As per the December 28th analysis, the price successfully bounced within the 91K–100K range, followed by a bullish phase that reached 101K–102K. This area was significant as it coincided with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the daily sell and the 0.27 extension of the last daily long position, forming a key resistance zone. This intersection of levels reinforced the likelihood of a trend reversal. Second Target: The price respected the 91K support, marking the lower bound of the previous range. However, we saw a notable shift in market behavior, indicating a potential change in trend. The price broke the range with a strong-bodied candle, followed by an opposite candle that triggered a corrective phase. This price reaction, following the liquidation, suggests the possibility of a reversal in the daily trend, with the longer-term bullish trend still intact on higher time frames. Market Behavior and Sentiment: The volatility index is stabilizing and remains below the second percentile, indicating lower market volatility. Despite this, I anticipate a bearish phase, which would be somewhat unexpected in the first quarter of the year. The 100K level, while psychologically significant, now appears to be a key point where market participants, including whales and institutional players, are reacting strongly. Updated Forecast: Given the recent price action, I now expect the price to test the 88K–86K support zone, with a critical focus on the 78K–74K region. These levels will be important to watch for any potential reversal signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
Short
by itsmcasalinii
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Long
by BlackLaceOne
Broke to Bold: How Cotton Nearly Saved the ConfederacyBroke to Bold: How Cotton Nearly Saved the Confederacy - The $500 Million Gamble That Failed Back in 1863, when the Confederacy was on its last legs, financially speaking, they had one ace up their sleeve - cotton. This wasn't just any cotton; it was the lifeblood of the global economy, the white gold Europe couldn't get enough of. The South, desperate and broke, decided to play a high-stakes game with this precious commodity. They issued bonds, not backed by gold or silver, but by cotton. It was a bold move, promising investors they'd get paid back in cash or raw cotton. Imagine that, betting the farm, literally, on a crop. These bonds were sold through big European banks like Emile Erlanger & Co., and they managed to raise a staggering £3 million, which is about $500 million today. The plan was genius in its simplicity. The South supplied 75% of the world's cotton, and Europe's textile mills were starving without it. British and French factories were practically begging for Southern cotton. The Confederacy thought, 'Let's use what we've got to get what we need.' But there was a catch, a big one. These bonds were only good if the South won the war. If they lost, they'd be as worthless as Confederate paper money. The South was gambling not just with their own fate, but with the fortunes of European investors. The Union, though, had other plans. With a stronger navy and a tight blockade, they choked off the South's ability to ship cotton abroad. Without cotton exports, the value of those bonds started to look shaky. Come 1865, the South was defeated, and those cotton-backed bonds? Worthless. European investors were left holding the bag, losing millions. It was a hard lesson learned - funding wars with commodity-backed bonds can be a risky business. This story isn't about winning or losing; it's about the audacity to bet everything on one card. The Confederacy showed us that in desperate times, you play the hand you're dealt, even if it's cotton. It's a reminder that in the game of war and finance, sometimes your best move can still leave you broke.
Education
by FortuneAI
BTC/USDT: Range Reversal in Play or More Bearish Traps Ahead?Market Structure Update BTC/USDT showed a reaction from the 92,000 support level, as anticipated in yesterday’s analysis. The price has bounced but is now stalling near 94,000, just under the EMA on the H4 timeframe. This reflects a typical range-bound market dynamic, where bulls defend the lows, but bears remain active near the moving average. We’re still within the 91,000–102,000 range, suggesting a balance of buyers and sellers. The lower boundary's defense aligns with the 80% probability of range reversals, but the absence of strong bullish momentum hints at indecision. For the Bulls: The rejection at 91,000 confirms support remains intact. The pullback could establish a higher low above 92,500, signaling an attempt to retest the 96,000–98,000 zone. A break above 94,500 and a close above the EMA could strengthen bullish sentiment. Probability: 70% for a continued range-bound move toward 96,000. For the Bears: The bounce lacks conviction, with small-bodied candles and limited follow-through. The EMA remains a dynamic resistance, curbing bullish attempts. A failure to hold above 91,000 would open the door to a test of 90,000 or lower. Probability: 30% for a breakdown below the range if 91,000 is breached. Insights: Ledges and Probabilities in Ranges: The price often oscillates within a trading range, with edges like 91,000 and 102,000 acting as key inflection points. Understanding these zones helps traders anticipate reversals or breakouts. EMA as Resistance: In a bearish environment, the EMA acts as a barrier. A breakout above it often signals that bulls are regaining control. Reading Candle Clarity: Watch for larger-bodied bars or gaps as signs of strength or weakness. Do you think the bulls can reclaim control, or are we heading for a deeper pullback? Let’s hear your thoughts—share your setups and market perspectives in the comments! Don’t forget to like and follow if you enjoy these price action breakdowns! 🚀
by PriceActionHero
BTC/USDT | Trendline Retest for a Potential Downward MoveThis BTC/USDT 4-hour chart presents a bearish setup following a retest of the ascending trendline, which previously acted as support but may now serve as resistance. Key details of the trade plan include: Entry around the $95,584.8 level after the retest of the trendline. Stop-loss set above $96,694.0 to protect against invalidation. Targeting $91,702.3 as the initial take-profit zone, coinciding with a previous demand area. This setup assumes a rejection at the trendline, signaling potential further downside. Monitor price action closely and use proper risk management. Share your thoughts or adjustments to refine the idea!
Short
by cRyPt0N008
bitcoin price bounce on January 14th @ 89377 USDTbitcoin will bounce from the green line on January 14th where you see the green heart. that line is close to an important fib level. but it also shows that on november 18th, price retested november 11th's high, which is also on that line. on november 18th planet Venus travelled between 14-15º of Sagittarius. on January 14th Budha (Mercury) will reach that point. there is more information on the January 14th bounce in the book SHININGBULL 2025 BINANCE:BTCUSDT
by ShiningBull
WYCKOFF Distribution? last phaseAre we headed in for SOW in phase D? The big guys hype on top and selling, then break some news and price drops hard. Quantum computing, option max pain by Deribit, JPOW 4 -> 2 ratecuts, Stong labor market data, silk road governrment sell news today the selloffs are so massive, and long term hodlers are selling at 100k (looks like distribution). one time to 90k area, then a last push up before we break down (might be bottom around here but big news tomorrow for a last push down) Yields on governments bonds are rising, so big guys TP and go to yields and cash, inflation on the rise, strong us labor market, less rate cuts Donald might want the market crash to come in the start of his term, so he can blame DEMS and get the DOGE in place, then implement, and second half turn the economy to be strong, no wars, DOGE is working, and he walks off as a winner. This for the WYCKOFF Distribution to be complete Reason for this to fail: -Very strong dollar and Donald wants it lower to increase us export and build business back up -Governments have revisioned the numbers a lot, so the resession might already be here. -Donald gets to office 20. jan and he has crypto friendly stab (might already be priced in) -Deribit have MAX PAIN for Options around 94-100k untill 28.02.2025 ( on todays data) -We might still be in a range. But 28.03.2025 Max Pain of 7.7B is at 80 K. Changing data every day, but a pattern is made.
by THECryptoBob
BTCUSDT IMPORTANT PRICE LEVEL BTCUSD currently formed an inside bearish candle and the daily ADL is moving horizontally (possible Distribution). The bullish scenario is to grab liquidity and continue the uptrend and the bearish scenario is to continue its decline toward the OB and balance multiple FVG blocks . If the daily close is outside the channel and below the 50% level then the price will have a higher probability to decline deeper but if the price touches the 50% level and grab liquidity and form an IFC candle then the up trend will have a higher probability to continue . The Weekly/Daily/4H market structure are still in a strong uptrend Good LUck
Long
by Alpha_54321
BTC/USDT at a Crossroads: Is a Range Reversal Brewing?Market Structure Overview On the H4 chart, BTC/USDT is testing the lower boundary of a trading range between 93,000 and 102,000 USDT, which has held since late December. The price is in a classic consolidation phase after a significant bullish move, suggesting the market is searching for balance. Key observations: - The lower boundary at 93,000 is a critical support zone, with 80% probability of a reversal back into the range. - However, there are no clear bullish reversal signals yet, making longs risky without further confirmation. - Selling here is equally unattractive, as the market is already extended downward, and risk-reward for shorts diminishes near major support. For the Bulls - Arguments: The current test of the lower range boundary could attract buyers, as it has done in the past. The extended distance from the EMA suggests a possible mean reversion. A move above 94,500 USDT with a strong bullish bar could signal the start of a rally toward the 96,000–98,000 USDT zone. - Probability: 80% for a reversal back into the range if support at 93,000 holds. For the Bears - Arguments: Momentum is clearly bearish, with the EMA sloping downward and no signs of exhaustion yet. A breakdown below 92,500 USDT could lead to further selling toward 90,000 USDT or lower. - Probability: 20% for a breakout below the range, but traders should wait for a confirmed close below 92,500 to act. Insights 1. Trading Ranges: Price oscillates between support and resistance in a range. The edges are often defended aggressively, making them key zones for trade setups. 2. Reversal Probability: Reversals are more likely within a range due to balance between buyers and sellers. Breakouts occur less frequently and require strong momentum. 3. Patience Pays: When the price is at the extremes of a range, it’s better to wait for confirmation of a reversal or breakout rather than jumping in prematurely. What’s your take? Will bulls defend the 93,000 level, or is a breakdown imminent? Let’s discuss your setups and ideas in the comments! If you found this post useful, smash that like button and share your thoughts below! 🚀
by PriceActionHero
Bitcoin and altcoin overview (January 09-10)Yesterday, Bitcoin continued its decline towards the lower range boundary as part of our scenario. At the moment, we can observe some buyer protection and absorption of market sales according to cumulative delta. If attempts to update the local low of $92,500 are unsuccessful, there is a high probability of an upward movement to the nearest selling zone of $97,000-$98,800 (volume zone). When approaching the lower boundary of the sideways range at $91,500, we expect a breakthrough and test of the buyer's zone $90,600-$86,300 (accumulated volumes) Buying zones: $90,600-$86,300 (accumulated volumes), ~$80,000 (volume anomaly), $77,000-$74,000 (large volume zone). Selling zones: $97,000-$98,800 (volume zone), $100,700-$102,200 (mirror selling zone, market selling activity). Interesting altcoins For AI coin, we have 2 important selling zones $0.695-$0.725 and $0.79-$0.84, we consider short positions when these levels are tested.
by Crypto_robotics
Bitcoin Approaches Critical Apex: Breakout or Breakdown Looms?From the provided chart, it appears that we are analyzing Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) using harmonic or geometric patterns. Here's a breakdown of what the chart suggests: Key Observations: Triangle Pattern: The chart highlights a symmetrical triangle formation, which typically signifies consolidation before a breakout. The price is nearing the apex of the triangle, suggesting a decisive move could be imminent. Harmonic Pattern: The A-B-C-D points indicate a potential harmonic pattern, often used to identify reversal zones. The "D" point suggests a possible completion of the pattern, indicating a potential reversal or continuation. Key Levels: Resistance is clearly at the upper boundary of the triangle (around $100,000). Support is at the lower boundary of the triangle (around $90,000). Volume Analysis: Typically, volume decreases during consolidation (inside the triangle) and spikes on a breakout. Yellow Horizontal Line: This seems to represent a significant support level ($88,000 - $90,000 range). Trading Analysis: Bullish Scenario: If BTC breaks above the triangle's upper boundary with strong volume, it could test the $100,000 resistance and move higher. The harmonic pattern's completion at "D" may signal a reversal upward. Bearish Scenario: If BTC fails to hold above the lower boundary ($90,000), it could retest the next major support at $88,000 or lower. Neutral Stance: Until a breakout or breakdown occurs, the triangle suggests the market remains in consolidation. Traders might avoid entering large positions until confirmation. Strategy: Entry Points: Buy on a breakout above $100,000 with a stop-loss below $97,000. Short if it breaks below $90,000 with a stop-loss above $92,000. Risk Management: Consider tight stops to avoid getting caught in false breakouts. Confirmation: Wait for a daily candle close outside the triangle for confirmation of direction.
by tolacvk