Next Volatility Period: Around April 5 (April 4-6)
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
A new candle has been created as a new month begins.
The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024.
As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows.
Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone.
The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86.
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(1D chart)
If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed.
If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th.
If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again.
In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone.
You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises.
In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond.
As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing.
This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan.
This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges.
Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range.
In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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