BTCUSDT.P trade ideas
btcCertainly! Here's a 3-paragraph explanation about the current state of the crypto world in English:
---
The cryptocurrency world in 2025 continues to evolve rapidly, with increasing adoption across financial, technological, and governmental sectors. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain dominant players, but newer blockchains such as Solana, Avalanche, and Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum are gaining ground due to their scalability and lower transaction costs. Institutional interest has also grown, with several banks and investment firms offering crypto-related products, including ETFs and custody services.
Regulation has become a central theme in the crypto space. Governments around the world are creating clearer frameworks to manage digital assets, aiming to protect investors while still fostering innovation. The United States, European Union, and parts of Asia have introduced stricter guidelines around Know Your Customer (KYC), anti-money laundering (AML), and crypto taxation. While this has added compliance burdens for projects and users, it has also brought more legitimacy to the market.
Meanwhile, decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and blockchain gaming remain strong sectors, though they have matured compared to the initial hype. AI integration, tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), and cross-chain interoperability are current trends shaping the next phase of crypto innovation. Despite some market volatility, the overall sentiment in 2025 is one of cautious optimism, with developers and investors focusing on utility, security, and long-term sustainability.
---
Let me know if you'd like a version with simpler vocabulary or expanded to more paragraphs.
Bitcoin Sentiment Slips Below Neutral As Price Hovers Near $105KBitcoin sentiment drops to 46.1% as market shows hesitation despite price rebound.
Trading volume remains flat, weakening support for BTC’s move above $105K.
Sentiment must exceed 60% with rising open interest to avoid retest of $102K support level.
According to the latest Advanced Sentiment Index data, Bitcoin sentiment has weakened despite the asset making a small recovery. As of June 13, the index recorded a reading of 46.1%, falling below the neutral 50% mark. This shift indicates a cautious market environment where investors remain hesitant to drive further gains without stronger confirmation signals. While Bitcoin has rebounded from recent lows, sentiment metrics and trading volume suggest limited conviction behind the price move.
According to the Bitcoin Advanced Sentiment Index, the current reading has fallen to approximately 46% just below the neutral 50% threshold. The chart shows that after bullish sentiment peaked above 80% in early June, the index has gradually declined; despite the recent TELEGRAM /(@TradeWithARZ) June 14, 2025
Data from the Advanced Sentiment Index shows that market optimism peaked above 80% in early June but has steadily declined since. The chart, tracking activity from May 16 to June 13, shows that sentiment dropped below 20% on multiple occasions, including June 5 and June 13, both aligning with short-term declines in Bitcoin’s price. Although the asset has since bounced back from those levels, investor confidence remains subdued.
The bell curve model used in the chart emphasizes that the majority of sentiment readings have clustered between 40% and 65%, showing a lack of extreme bullish or bearish positions. This distribution suggests uncertainty, as traders hesitate to take strong directional bets.
Recent price action within the $103,000 -$105,000 area has, however, not been accompanied by new volume inflow as net buy volume and volume delta show almost no change. The stagnation of these indicators suggests that the market participants did not support the rise to a sufficient degree.
Price Volatility Contains Within Narrow Range
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $104,950.96 at the time of writing, reflecting a 0.31% decrease over the past 24 hours. The price surged above $106,000 but faced resistance and returned to a tighter trading band. A major dip occurred around 6 PM on June 13, followed by a rebound during the early hours of June 14. Despite these fluctuations, the asset has not broken out of its recent consolidation pattern.
Source: CoinMarketCap
The volume-to-market cap ratio over the last 24 hours is 2.38%, which indicates moderate trade. The total circulating supply of bitcoin has now grown to 19.87 million BTC and is getting ever closer to the protocol-imposed limit of 21 million. Despite the stability seen in price action, analysts are monitoring bigger signs before calling a directional change.
According to analysts, the sentiment index needs to exceed 6065 percent to validate a sustainable uptrend. An increase in open interest and net taker volume is unlikely to achieve that level. In the absence of those conditions, the market is vulnerable to retesting lower support areas between $102,000 and $103,000.
STOP LOSS LESSONI want to share my opinion about stop-losses.
I don’t use them, because very often the stop gets triggered — and then the price moves in the right direction, but you're no longer in the trade.
I do it differently: I set a take-profit, but no stop-loss.
Let’s say I have $1000, and I enter a short with $100.
The price would have to increase 10 times to get me liquidated.
A 2–3% drawdown is acceptable, especially in an overbought market.
So why would I use a stop?
Trade with small amounts — and everything will be fine.
You won’t lose money.
If you're looking for excitement, go to a casino — the odds are better there.
In trading, you need to be careful and stay calm.
From my experience, technical analysis often doesn't work.
Thanks for your attention.
#stoploss
SHORT BTC✅ Short Setup Summary – BTCUSDT (15m chart)
🧭 1. Context
Volume Profile shows clear value area and Point of Control (POC) between ~104,000–106,000
Price is expected to retrace to supply at 106,400 (previous HVN & resistance)
Trade plan: Short from 106,400 → down to 100,600 zone
📌 Trade Idea Breakdown
🔄 Trade Direction: Short
🟩 Short Entry Zone: ~106,400
🟥 Stop Loss: Above the recent swing high (~107,000+)
🎯 Take Profit (TP): 100,600–100,300 (previous demand/liquidity zone)
📏 Checklist-Based Analysis
✅ 1. Market Structure
Current short-term structure is bearish (lower highs, lower lows)
Plan to enter at pullback into resistance, in-line with the trend
📘 Rule: Always trade with MS unless you have a trap or reversal
✔️ Structure: Bearish → short pullback is valid
⚠️ 2. Key Level (106,400)
Acts as supply zone / resistance
Also lines up with previous POC / volume cluster
High probability reaction area
📘 Rule: Trade from areas where volume or liquidity previously reacted
🔻 3. Entry Confirmation
Watch for:
Trap wick (SFP) or
Bearish engulfing / 3-bar reversal
On M15 or M5 before entry
📘 Rule: Do not enter blindly — wait for confirmation
📊 4. Volume Check
Monitor if volume increases during the test of 106,400
Preferably with aggressive sellers stepping in
📘 Rule: Volume spike + rejection wick = institutional activity
🛡 5. Risk Management
Component Value / Zone
Entry ~106,400
SL Above 107,000 (last clean high)
TP 100,600 – 100,300
R:R Target at least 1:3
📋 Execution Rules Summary
Step Status
Market structure bearish ✅
Supply zone identified ✅
Entry confirmation seen? 🔲 Wait
Volume reaction checked? 🔲 Wait
SL/TP based on structure ✅
🧠 Final Thoughts
This is a solid short setup plan with the trend.
You’re selling from a liquidity cluster + resistance + supply area — a confluence zone.
Just ensure you:
Wait for trap confirmation or bearish price action
Don’t jump in early — let price show weakness first
Watch for volume spike confirming rejection at 106,400
LONG BTC✅ Long Setup Summary (BTCUSDT)
🧭 1. Daily Timeframe Context (D1)
Price is approaching a key low zone at 100,300 – 100,600
This is a previous liquidity area, often where large players hunt stop-losses
Expecting a trap or reversal if price sweeps below and quickly recovers
📌 Rule: Always check the Daily chart to:
Understand current trend bias
Identify if price is at support/resistance
Spot any trap or reversal signals (e.g., engulfing, pin bar, 3-bar reversal)
📐 2. Market Structure (M15–H1)
Short-term structure is currently bearish (lower highs, lower lows)
Trade idea is a counter-trend long, so confirmation is critical
📌 Rule:
Confirm market structure on M15/H1 before entry
Counter-trend trades must have trap confirmation to reduce risk
🔻 3. Trap / SFP Confirmation (Key Entry Condition)
Watch for price to break below 100,300 (previous low) and reject sharply
Look for a swing failure pattern (SFP) or false breakout wick
Entry is valid only if price closes back above the trap zone
📌 Rule:
Never enter just because price is at support
Only enter after trap wick + bullish candle confirmation
📊 4. Volume Confirmation
Look for a spike in volume at the trap wick
Confirms real interest and activity from institutional participants
📌 Rule:
A proper reversal setup includes price trap + volume confirmation
Avoid setups with low or flat volume during the move
🎯 5. Entry Plan
Component Details
Buy Zone 100,300 – 100,600
Entry After confirmation: trap wick + bullish candle
Stop Loss Below the trap wick (example: 99,800)
Take Profit 106,400 (prior resistance / supply zone)
R:R Ratio Minimum 1:3, depending on execution
📌 Rule:
SL must be based on trap invalidation, not random distance
TP should be at the next key structure, not a fixed pip target
✅ Execution Checklist
Step Check
Daily bias aligns or neutral? ✅
Market Structure reviewed? ✅
Trap / SFP occurred? 🔲
Volume spike confirmed? 🔲
Bullish PA confirmation? 🔲
SL placed correctly? ✅
TP set at logical structure? ✅
📌 Summary
This is a high-probability counter-trend long setup from a key liquidity zone.
Success depends entirely on:
A clean trap/SFP wick
Volume spike at the low
Bullish price action confirmation
Without these, avoid entering.
Stick to the rules, and let the market come to you — don’t force the trade.
BTC - FRACTAL!!!!I found a fractal, the price should rise to the range of 110888, and then there will be a sharp decline, a squeeze will form, with the price supposedly rising and crossing over, but in reality, the price will be pushed down sharply to a range below $90k. I have an idea related to this, I called it the dragon's wings pattern. At one point, I simply realized that the chart repeats what has already happened, and this is exactly what needs to be analyzed. I think the price will go exactly as I have drawn it. All the best and stay disciplined!
Bull Trap or Just the Beginning? All Eyes on 103kOnce we cleared the 109k ATH, I began tracking this new structure (in blue). Considering the current macroeconomic backdrop, it’s starting to make a lot more sense.
There’s plenty of noise about this being the biggest bull run in recent times, but looking at the chart, FVGs left behind, lack of volume commitment, and inefficient price action… are we actually gearing up for one of the largest bear markets we’ve seen instead?
You really don’t want to see a weekly close below 103k.
Bitcoin long 97kPlanning on a push below 100k over the next few days, I'll be looking for possible entry around 96 - 98k if LTF shows good support.
The monthly open is at 100k so Id expect to see some rejection at that level, there's also a monthly FVG around 97k which price could revisit.
My target will be the BTC highs, areas of interest marked on the chart.
Bitcoin dump to 102500 ...maybe loweerJust recently opened a short position on bitcoin. Aiming for 102500 tp.
Its very evident the market wants to fall.
Getting roughly 4RR from this given plays out.
Stop: $105735
Market is aiming for new lows according to my DTT analysis.
BTC USDTBitcoin has three months to go in a sideways manner and test the 90,000-89,000 area, even if quickly, then the currency season begins between 116,000-119,000.
Take a look at how BTC will move this weekendToday your first target is 103,616.00 .
The next day second target is 101,150.00 .
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - Price Consolidating Inside Sym. Triangle - DBITCOIN (BTCUSDT) price has recently bounced up from above the 50EMA (yellow line).
Since May 2025, price has been consolidating sideways and has now formed a symmetrical triangle (blue lines). 10% to 20% volatility could be incoming for Bitcoin this summer.
The key resistance prices that Bitcoin has yet to breakout above are: $110000, $112000, $115000, and $120000+.
Support prices are holding at this time, such as $105000, $104000, $102000, and $100000, $95000.
If price holds above $100,000 to $105,000, there is still a chance that Bitcoin can continue to uptrend and rally higher this year in 2025.
However, if $100,000 price and support levels are lost, a new downtrend could occur and price could possibly test the 200EMA zone (red line).
Bitcoin At Resistance: OMG! Not Another 20X SHORT!Sell at resistance; buy at support.
Good morning my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, I hope you are having a wonderful day.
Being able to adapt to changing market conditions is one of the signs of being a great trader. Being able to spot changes on a chart is also indicative of someone that can produce great results in this and other markets. How are you feeling today?
It is no secret, we let everyone know; We sell when prices are high, we buy a lot when prices are low.
Bitcoin is now trading below its 20-Jan 2025 peak price. And it is also producing a lower high. Both bearish signals that are pointing to a lower low.
If the first drop settled around 100K, the second one should settle in the low 90s or right below 90K. It can go lower of course but we go step by step. I am not saying GO SHORT 20X again. This would only be possible for people who are smart, experienced traders and those that can take advantage of a changing situation without breaking their portfolio or long-term plans. Those can definitely SHORT this setup and profit short-term.
A trader trades, it is what he/she does. You sell when prices are high if a drop is incoming, you buy when prices are low if a rise is next.
This is a friendly reminder and it carries great entry prices and timing. Follow the chart.
Trading volume is super low as Bitcoin trades near resistance and this is one of the biggest exchanges in the world. Low volume at this point reveals a pattern of distribution, distribution means lower of course.
Both the MACD & RSI move on the bullish zone but trending lower, bearish at this point.
What will it be: Will Bitcoin move down next? Will Bitcoin move up?
My money is on down.
Leave a comment if you agree.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
BITCOINThe Federal Reserve is likely to interpret the June 2025 University of Michigan (UoM) consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data as mixed but cautiously encouraging, with implications for monetary policy:
Key Data Points
Consumer Sentiment: 60.5 (vs. 53.5 forecast, prior 52.2) – a sharp rebound to the highest level since mid-2023.
1-Year Inflation Expectations: 5.1% (vs. 6.6% prior) – a significant decline, nearing pre-tariff levels.
Fed Interpretation
Improved Consumer Sentiment:
The jump to 60.5 signals renewed optimism about the economy, likely driven by reduced trade tensions (e.g., tariff pauses) and stable labor markets. This aligns with recent upward revisions to April and May sentiment data.
The Fed will view this as a sign of economic resilience, reducing urgency for near-term rate cuts to stimulate growth.
Sharply Lower Inflation Expectations:
The drop to 5.1% (from 6.6%) aligns with the New York Fed’s May 2025 survey showing declining inflation expectations across all horizons.
This suggests consumers are growing more confident that the Fed’s policies (and tariff adjustments) are curbing price pressures, easing fears of a wage-price spiral.
Policy Implications:
Dovish Tilt Supported: Lower inflation expectations reduce the risk of entrenched price pressures, giving the Fed flexibility to cut rates later in 2025 if growth slows.
No Immediate Cuts Likely: Strong sentiment and a resilient labor market (unemployment at 4.2%) justify maintaining rates at 4.25–4.50% in July.
Focus on Tariff Risks: The Fed will remain cautious about potential inflation rebounds from Trump’s tariffs, which could add 1.5% to prices by late 2025.
Market Reactions
DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to dip modestly as lower inflation expectations boost rate-cut bets, but sentiment-driven growth optimism may limit losses. Key support at 98.00–98.20.
Bonds: 10-year yields may edge lower (toward 4.00%) on reduced inflation fears, though strong sentiment could cap declines.
Equities: Stocks (especially consumer-discretionary sectors) may rally on improved economic outlook.
Conclusion
The Fed will likely view this data as validating its cautious stance: inflation expectations are cooling, but strong sentiment and labor markets argue against premature easing. A September rate cut remains the base case, contingent on continued disinflation and no tariff-driven price spikes. Traders should watch for June CPI (July 11) and Q2 GDP to confirm trends.
#bitcoin #dollar
The FVG above isn’t the target. It’s the bait.This is a classic Smart Money sequence. Most are watching the imbalance at 106.5k–108.7k and expecting immediate delivery. But that’s not how this game works.
The setup:
Price broke down violently, then reversed with momentum — stopping right beneath the daily FVG block. That alone tells me it’s not ready. It’s gathering.
Below? Multiple fib levels that haven’t been tested — 104.4k (0.236), 102.6k (0.0), and a volume-backed rejection wick that still holds weight.
The market is likely to dip again — pull into deeper discount, reset the low timeframe narrative — and only then attack the FVG and upper sweep zones.
What I expect:
Sweep of 102.6k (final liquidity run)
Reaction → reclaim 104.4k
Push into the FVG toward 106.5k (0.5) and possibly 107.4k (0.618)
No emotional reaction to the red candles — this is structure playing out, not weakness unfolding.
Plan:
Ideal Entry: 102.8k–103.2k range
SL: Below 102.6k
TP1: 105.6k
TP2: 107.4k
Final: 108.7k clean inefficiency fill
Let it dip. Let it breathe. That’s where conviction is built.
Final thought:
“The real move starts when they convince you it’s done.”
Bitcoin Prediction Update - BTC Crashed as expected! What’s nextBitcoin Crashed as Predicted! I am updating the current price action of CRYPTOCAP:BTC , and if we can reach our main target of $93K! Smash the Rocket Button if you did not completely hate this update! See you very soon again!
Bitcoin to $100k Soon. The End of Bitcoin Bear Markets? In this chart we explore the batshit idea that we'll never have another bitcoin bear cycle ever again due to macro conditions and supply shock from no one needing to sell.
Not investment advice obviously.
#BTC is approaching the S/R conversion zone📊#BTC is approaching the S/R conversion zone⚠️
🧠Yesterday's long orders were swept after moving up the SL, because the support zone near 106500-107500 was broken, and the support zone turned into a resistance zone.
➡️If the price rebounds here again, it may be resisted. Therefore, we can look for some short signals to participate.
➡️If we still want to continue to rise, we can only remain optimistic after breaking through the support-resistance conversion zone and stabilizing.
🤜If you like my analysis, please like 💖 and share 💬
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
This Isn't a Crash Yet: Bitcoin's Real Correction Is Just Beginn⚡️ Hello, everyone! Bitcoin fell to $102,700 overnight. Liquidation volumes reached over a billion dollars according to official data alone. In reality, the figure is much higher.
This correction was linked to the start of hostilities between Israel and Iran. But those who follow me know that I have been predicting this for the past few weeks.
🌐 People think that geopolitics and macroeconomics drive the markets. And in part, that is true. But almost always, the signs of a sharp price movement in the near future are always visible on the chart much earlier.
➡️ And that is why I believe that the current decline is only the beginning:
A triple top has formed on the 4H timeframe. There are a huge number of gaps below, starting with $102,810 - 97,368, and another $93,270 - 85,162. And as we know, in 99% of cases, gaps close sooner or later.
There are 1 billion liquidations at the $102,700 level alone. Now imagine how much liquidity there is at the $99,000 level? And at $90,000? I don't even need to turn on the indicators to understand that there is now a huge amount of liquidity in longs concentrated below. Because throughout the entire last impulse from the 70 levels, we have hardly seen any normal correction.
⚙️ What the indicators say:
Money Flow - the outflow of liquidity and closing of positions continues. A divergence has formed even in the current movement, hinting at a potential continuation of the correction.
Dynamic Sup/Rez - the level of $105,773 is one of the most important levels, judging by the trading volumes on it. It is now also the key resistance level. The nearest support of the same strength, judging by the volume of demand, is no earlier than $94,750. And its volumes are significantly lower, at least for now.
📌 Conclusion:
For a long time now, all indicators have been literally screaming at us that a correction is about to begin. But no one believes it. I do not believe that Bitcoin will fall to 95 tomorrow. We may even see a rebound to $107,000 to close the newly formed above us and drop those who decided to short too early.
The price moves from liquidity to liquidity — that's the law. And right now, there is simply no liquidity at the top, just as there is no demand to set new ATXs at $150,000 or whatever everyone is waiting for.
🔥 So let's be patient, or better yet, stock up on free USDT and get ready to increase our positions. Because we will definitely get such opportunities soon.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
