Understanding Williams %R In TradingThe Williams %R is a fast, sensitive momentum oscillator ideal for short-term trading strategies. It provides early signals of overbought and oversold conditions by comparing the current close to the high-low range over a defined lookback period (typically 14 bars).
By understanding where Williams %R fits among other oscillators, traders can better utilize it within a well-rounded, context-aware strategy.
✅ 1. What Are Momentum Indicators?
Momentum indicators are technical analysis tools used to measure the speed and strength of a price movement over time. Rather than focusing on absolute price direction, momentum indicators assess how quickly prices are changing and help traders identify potential turning points, continuation patterns, or overbought/oversold conditions.
They are particularly useful in sideways or ranging markets, where momentum shifts often precede breakouts or reversals.
Key characteristics of momentum indicators:
Often bounded within fixed ranges (e.g., 0–100 or -100 to 0)
Typically leading indicators, aiming to provide early entry/exit signals
Help spot divergence between price and momentum — a common sign of weakening trends
✅ 2. Understanding the Williams %R Indicator
≫ The Origin: Developed by Larry Williams
The Williams %R indicator was developed by Larry Williams, a renowned trader and author, in the late 1970s. Williams introduced this tool to identify potential market turning points by measuring a security’s momentum relative to its recent high-low range.
Originally intended for short-term futures trading, the indicator has since become a staple for both day traders and swing traders across various markets, including stocks, forex, and crypto.
Larry Williams famously used this indicator in his trading system when he won the 1987 World Cup Trading Championship, turning $10,000 into over $1 million in a single year—demonstrating its real-world impact when used effectively.
≫ Formula Breakdown
The Williams %R formula is as follows:
Williams %R= = (HighestHigh − Close) / (HighestHigh - LowerLow) × −100
Highest High = The highest price over the lookback period (typically 14 periods)
Lowest Low = The lowest price over the same lookback period
Close = The current closing price
This formula normalizes the current price within its recent trading range and expresses it as a negative percentage between 0 and -100.
Example:
If price is at the highest point in the range → %R = 0 (overbought)
If price is at the lowest point in the range → %R = -100 (oversold)
This inverted scale (compared to RSI) helps traders see how close the current price is to the top or bottom of the recent range, providing clues about potential reversal zones.
Williams %R in Pinescript:
//@version=5
indicator("Custom Williams %R", overlay=false)
length = input.int(14, title="Period")
highestHigh = ta.highest(high, length)
lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, length)
williamsR = (highestHigh - close) / (highestHigh - lowestLow) \* -100
plot(williamsR, title="%R", color=color.purple)
hline(-20, "Overbought", color=color.red)
hline(-80, "Oversold", color=color.green)
≫ Key Settings: 14-Period Default and Customizations
The default setting for Williams %R is 14 periods, which Larry Williams originally recommended. However, this lookback period can be customized based on your trading style and timeframe.
Here’s how different settings can be applied:
❖ Intraday Trading (5-minute to 15-minute charts):
Use a 9 to 14-period setting for faster, more responsive signals.
Ideal for scalpers or short-term traders seeking quick entries and exits.
❖ Swing Trading (1-hour to Daily charts):
Stick with the standard 14 to 21-period range.
Balances sensitivity and reliability; helps capture short- to mid-term reversals.
❖ Position/Long-Term Trading (Weekly charts or higher):
Use 21-period or longer to smooth out signals and reduce noise.
Best for spotting high-conviction turning points with less frequent trades.
🔁 Customization Tip:
You can also use multiple %R settings (e.g., 14 and 50) together to analyze short-term momentum inside longer-term trend cycles, adding depth and context to your strategy.
≫ Interpretation: Overbought and Oversold Conditions
The Williams %R scale ranges from 0 to -100 and is interpreted as follows:
❖ Overbought: %R above -20
Indicates that price is near the top of its recent range
Suggests potential for a pullback or reversal downward
❖ Oversold: %R below -80
Indicates price is near the bottom of its recent range
Suggests potential for a bounce or reversal upward
⚠️ Important: Overbought does not mean “time to sell” and oversold does not mean “time to buy.” These are conditions, not signals. Use them with confirmation tools like support/resistance zones, candlestick patterns, volume analysis, divergences and more.
✅ 3. Using Williams %R Effectively
≫ Entry Signals
Williams %R can be used to time entries based on shifts in momentum, especially around key overbought and oversold zones.
❖ Overbought/Oversold Reversals
This is the most common use of Williams %R - identifying turning points when price reaches extreme levels in its recent range:
Overbought Zone (above -20):
Signals potential bearish reversal
Look for confluence with resistance levels or bearish candlestick patterns
Confirmation often comes as %R drops back below -20
Oversold Zone (below -80):
Indicates a possible bullish reversal
Stronger when aligned with support or demand zones
Confirmation often comes when %R climbs back above -80
⚠️ Note: These are signals of potential exhaustion, not guaranteed reversals. Always pair with price action context or volume.
❖ Pullback Continuations
Williams %R can also support trend-following strategies by identifying momentum retracements within an ongoing trend:
In an uptrend, wait for Williams %R to dip below -80 (short-term oversold) and then re-enter above -80 as the trend resumes
In a downtrend, look for a rally where %R rises above -20 (short-term overbought), then re-enters below -20 to confirm trend continuation
This technique helps you buy the dip or sell the rally with better timing and risk control.
≫ Exit Signals
Williams %R can also guide exit timing by showing when momentum is weakening, especially as price moves away from extremes.
❖ Returning to Neutral Zones
When Williams %R moves back toward the -50 midpoint, it can signal that the current move is losing steam.
In a long position, if %R returns from oversold to above -50 but then flattens or dips again, it may be time to take profit
In a short position, if %R rises from overbought back below -50, it suggests selling pressure is decreasing
Exiting before full reversals can help you lock in gains while reducing risk exposure.
❖ Crossovers at Extremes
Some traders look for quick crossovers back through key thresholds (-80 and -20) as exit or reversal alerts:
If %R drops from above -20 back below it, the overbought condition may be ending
If %R rises from below -80 back above it, the oversold condition may be ending
These sharp shifts often precede momentum flips, making them useful for both exit timing and new trade setups in the opposite direction.
❖ False Signal Filtering Techniques
Williams %R can produce false signals, especially in trending or volatile markets. To improve signal quality, consider these filters:
Use with Trend Filters:
Apply moving averages (e.g., 50- or 200-period MA) to define trend direction and avoid counter-trend trades
Only trade overbought signals in a downtrend and oversold signals in an uptrend
Add Price Action Confirmation: Look for candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, pin bars) or support/resistance reactions before acting on %R signals
Volume Analysis: Confirm signals with volume spikes or divergences to validate strength or weakness in a move
Multiple Timeframe Confluence: Use Williams %R on a higher timeframe (e.g., 4H or daily) to establish the broader context, then align trades on a lower timeframe
Avoid during High Volatility Events: News releases and earnings reports can create erratic spikes that cause misleading %R readings
❖ Best Market Conditions: Ranging vs Trending Markets
Williams %R performs best under specific market conditions. Understanding when to use it—and when to avoid it—is key to success.
Ranging Markets: Ideal Conditions
Williams %R excels in sideways or consolidating markets
In ranges, price frequently oscillates between support and resistance, making overbought/oversold signals highly effective
Reversals from the -20 or -80 zones often align with the top and bottom of a trading range
Trending Markets: Use With Caution
During strong trends, Williams %R can stay in the overbought or oversold zone for extended periods
This makes reversal signals less reliable and more prone to false exits
In trending conditions, it’s better to:
Use Williams %R for pullback entries
Combine it with a trend filter to stay on the dominant side of momentum
✅ 4. Optimizing the Period Setting (5, 9, 14, 21, etc.)
The length of the lookback period in Williams %R significantly affects signal behavior:
Shorter periods (5, 9):
Produce faster, more frequent signals
Best for scalping and intraday trading
More sensitive but can result in higher noise and false signals
Default period (14):
Balanced responsiveness
Suitable for swing trading and multi-hour charting
Longer periods (21+):
Generate fewer but more stable signals
Best for position trading or slower-moving markets
Reduced noise but may lag in volatile conditions
🔍 To optimize:
Test various period values under consistent rules (e.g., entry/exit and risk management stay the same)
Compare outcomes across different market environments (trending, ranging, volatile)
✅ 4. Key Takeaways
Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures the close relative to the recent high-low range on a scale from 0 to -100.
It was developed by Larry Williams to help identify short-term overbought and oversold market conditions.
A reading above -20 suggests overbought conditions, while a reading below -80 indicates oversold conditions.
The default 14-period setting balances signal responsiveness and stability for most traders.
Shorter periods generate faster signals with more noise, while longer periods produce smoother signals with more lag.
Williams %R works best in ranging or sideways markets rather than strongly trending environments.
Traders can use %R for reversal signals or to confirm pullbacks within a broader trend.
Filtering signals with price action, support/resistance, or volume improves accuracy.
The indicator is not meant to be used in isolation and requires confirmation before acting on signals.
Backtesting across different timeframes and period settings is essential for identifying optimal usage.
Performance metrics such as win rate, R:R ratio, and drawdown help evaluate the indicator’s reliability.
Williams %R is easy to code and automate in platforms like TradingView using Pine Script.
The indicator adds value when used as part of a broader, disciplined trading system.
Williams %R is a simple yet deeply insightful momentum oscillator. While often overlooked in favor of more complex indicators, it provides a unique lens into market sentiment and price extremes. Its greatest strength lies in its clarity — helping traders time entries and exits with greater confidence when paired with context.
BTCUSDT trade ideas
BTC/USDT Analysis. Moving According to the Scenario
Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics trader-analyst with your daily market update.
Yesterday, Bitcoin reached our sell zone at $105,000–$105,700, and we saw an immediate reaction upon testing the lower boundary of that range.
The scenario outlined yesterday remains valid. We expect a corrective move with potential to reach $100,000, from where a continuation of the primary long trend may be considered.
Sell Zones:
$105,000–$105,700 (absorption of market buys),
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
~$100,000 (absorbing volume),
$98,000–$97,200 (local support),
$93,000 level,
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance),
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market sells),
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume),
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone),
$74,800 level,
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume).
This publication is not financial advice.
BTC Technical Market Update! $110,000?Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Market Update
Over the past several trading sessions, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a pattern of strength, particularly visible on the 4-hour chart. Price action has consistently respected the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones on this timeframe, taking support from these areas without breaching any significant downside levels. This repeated behavior indicates a strong underlying bullish sentiment, suggesting that market participants are actively defending key support zones.
Furthermore, Bitcoin recently approached a high-liquidity resistance zone—a level that historically acts as a supply barrier—and not only absorbed the liquidity but also decisively broke through it. This move implies that bullish momentum is firmly in control, and short-term resistance levels are being invalidated one after another. The market structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the current trend.
As of now, BTC has just bounced from a 4H FVG and is trading above that support. However, a short-term pullback remains possible. If such a retracement occurs, it is expected to revisit the next significant 4H FVG support zone, which lies approximately between $98,800 and $97,400. This area could act as a strong accumulation zone for buyers, potentially fueling another bullish wave. In the case of renewed upward momentum from this level, Bitcoin could target the $101,000 to $105,000 range in the short to mid-term.
Market participants are advised to remain cautious and observe price behavior as it unfolds in the coming days. Technical setups are aligning in favor of the bulls, but volatility may increase near key resistance and support levels. Always base your trades and investment decisions on thorough analysis, and keep in mind that no setup guarantees results.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please ensure you conduct your own independent research and analysis (DYOR) before making any trading or investment decisions.
Bitcoin Warning - Breakout or Fakeout?BTC has been resilient and trying to establish a 100K base.
I think BTC is going to perform a liquidity sweep by briefly breaching ATH's before it has a correction / sell wave back down to $75-$78K level.
I'd be cautious trying to buy the breakout if we try for it in the next couple weeks.
After this correction BTC will likely pursue New all time highs in 2026.
$120K -$130K should be very easy to obtain in 2026 with possibility of a far greater overshoot.
BITCOIN MIGHT SEE $160KWe have a vey similar movement for bitcoin compare to few months ago
1) Pass the 20MA on weekly
2) Bullish cross on MACD
3) Cross and stay above the weekly resistance ( yellow trendline )
4) +60% upside movement
Im not saying 60% raise is coming to bitcoin ( may be come ), but at least $134k - $140k is very likely IMO
Bitcoin MA 50 crosses 100If history repeats, this could be even bigger gains soon ahead. The blue MA 50 just crossed the orange MA 100 which happened in Oct '24 as well as Oct '23 -- this time happening so soon could defy historical pattern, but with a possible Fed interest rate cut in the works, this could be huge.
After the recent Fed announcement that there would be no interest rate cuts at this time, the reason given was that the market was holding steady, though a recession was not entirely ruled out. If a recession starts to rear its ugly head before June 17th Fed meeting, they may change their outlook and enact interest rate cuts to ensure the economy can continue unscathed. Since Trump has walked back tariffs on China and is still working with the rest of the world to lower tariffs, the interest rates may not be cut in June.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
A recession is still on the horizon, even without rate cuts and with lowered tariffs. The damage has already been done by tariffs, enough so that reports of impending empty shelves soon to hit stores this month is still a concern. People flock to other investment strategies when the market is so uncertain, hence Gold and Bitcoin getting their boosts recently.
It's my opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow in price as investors scramble to keep their portfolios on an uptrend. The MA 50 and MA 100 crossing is a great signal and gives me confidence in a continuing uptrend.
BTC – Liquidity Sweep, Fair Value Gap Reactions & Potential LongMarket context and structure
This BTCUSDT 1-hour chart from BYBIT illustrates a methodical transition from a phase of consolidation to bullish expansion, guided by smart money principles. Price initially consolidates beneath a well-defined resistance level, with an Imbalance Fair Value Gap (IFVG) forming inside the range. This IFVG signals an inefficient zone where institutional players may be positioned. The eventual breakout above this range indicates a structural shift and the beginning of a directional move, setting the stage for further bullish development.
Break of structure and liquidity sweep
Following the breakout, BTC sweeps the buy-side liquidity resting above a prior swing high. This liquidity grab is a common maneuver in smart money trading, designed to trigger stop orders and breakout entries to facilitate larger institutional fills. The aggressive price movement results in the creation of several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which are regions where price moved with such momentum that no overlap between candles occurred. These FVGs are crucial areas of interest where future re-entries or continuations might originate.
Fair value gaps and demand zones
The chart highlights multiple FVGs formed during the bullish impulse. The uppermost FVG, located just below the most recent liquidity sweep, acts as a shallow retracement zone and has already been partially mitigated. A mid-range FVG extends further down, providing a secondary support layer within the current price structure. The largest and deepest FVG lies closer to the breakout origin and represents a significant unfilled demand zone. These FVGs help to outline institutional footprints, revealing where unfulfilled orders may still reside and where price might return to rebalance.
Re-entry strategy and projection
An ideal re-entry area is labeled “Entry at IFVG,” situated near the recently swept liquidity. The projection suggests that price may retrace slightly into this IFVG, consolidate, and then continue its upward trajectory. This anticipated movement reflects a bullish continuation pattern rooted in the idea of reaccumulation, where price revisits areas of imbalance before pushing higher. The visual path drawn on the chart captures this idea, showing a measured retracement followed by a continuation of the trend.
Interpretation and tactical bias
The overall structure and price behavior support a smart money-based bullish outlook. The clean break of structure, the successful sweep of liquidity, and the presence of multiple fair value gaps provide a foundation for continued upside potential. Price respecting these imbalance zones on pullbacks reinforces demand and highlights ongoing institutional involvement. This setup encourages a patient, context-aware approach to trading, focusing on inefficiencies, order flow, and the narrative of price rather than arbitrary indicators.
#BTCUSDT SELL NOW The chart you provided shows a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the 45-minute timeframe. Here's a quick breakdown:
Resistance Zone (Yellow Box at Top): Around $103,800–$104,000, showing where price previously got rejected.
Support Zone (Yellow Box at Bottom): Around $101,900, marked as a potential target.
Bearish Momentum: The blue arrow and recent red candles suggest a bearish move is expected.
Entry/Stop/Target Zones:
Entry: Around current level ($103,138).
Stop Loss: Near $103,821 (just above resistance).
Target: Around $101,900.
This indicates a short (sell) setup with a risk-to-reward ratio favoring the downside.
Do you want help identifying a potential entry signal or confirmation before taking action?
BTC at Key Breakout Zone – Next Move Critical!
Bitcoin has entered a major resistance zone near $103,400. A confirmed breakout above this area could open the path toward $120,000. However, if bulls fail to hold, a retest of the $96,000 support is likely. Price action in the next few candles will be crucial – stay alert for either a breakout continuation or a rejection setup.
BTC/USDT Weekly Analysis – Bullish Momentum ContinuesBitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined ascending green channel that started in early 2023. After a healthy consolidation near the midline of the channel, the price broke out of a wedge pattern, confirming renewed bullish momentum.
As long as BTC remains inside this channel and above key support levels, the trend remains bullish. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the upcoming targets are:
$130,000 (1.618 extension)
$171,000 (2.618 extension)
$226,000 (3.618 extension)
If Bitcoin breaks above the previous all-time high of $109,588, we could see a strong rally toward the $130K–$170K zone by Fall 2025.
Bearish scenario: A confirmed breakdown below the midline and $95K support could lead to a deeper correction.
Fibonacci Extensions: Mapping Market Psychology Beyond the TrendHello, traders! 💫
Fibonacci numbers have traveled far from ancient Italian math to modern trading charts. In technical analysis, Fibonacci Extensions aren’t just mystical ratios; they’re a structured way to project potential price targets based on crowd psychology and trend continuation.
But what are they really, and why do so many traders draw those lines with near-religious fervor?
🧠 A Quick Historical Detour
Leonardo Fibonacci introduced the sequence to the West in the 13th century based on patterns he observed in Indian mathematics. The key idea is that each number in the sequence is the sum of the two before it: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...
When you divide specific numbers in the sequence, you get ratios that repeat throughout nature — and, intriguingly, financial markets. These include:
0.618 (the “golden ratio”)
1.618
2.618, and so on.
While Fibonacci Retracements look backward to gauge potential pullbacks, Fibonacci Extensions look forward to mapping possible continuation levels after a price move.
📊 Fibonacci Extensions
To use Fibonacci Extensions, you need three points:
The Start of a Trend (Point A)
The End of the Trend or Impulse Move (Point B)
A Retracement Low/High Where Price Bounces or Consolidates (Point C)
This ABC move applies Fibonacci ratios to project levels beyond point B, helping traders visualize where the price might go if the trend continues.
Common Extension Levels Include:
1.272
1.618 (golden ratio)
2.0
2.618
Each level acts as a kind of psychological milestone — not a guarantee, but a place where market participants may take profits, reassess, or react.
🔎 Let’s Take a Real Example: BTC/USDT Weekly
It's not that Fibonacci numbers have magical power. The theory is based on self-fulfilling behavior. When enough traders watch the same levels — and act on them — they can influence real outcomes.
The chart illustrates how Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to understand the depth and structure of a correction during a bullish cycle.
Low (~$4,783) in March 2020 (COVID-19 Сrash)
to the High (~$65,834) in November 2021 (Bull Market Peak)
From there, the price corrected throughout 2022–2023. Let’s look at what happened at each level — and what it tells us on the graph.
🔍 Why This Matters
Your retracement levels aren’t just lines — they mapped the psychology of the market:
Investors Testing Conviction at 0.5
Panic at 0.618
Capitulation Near 0.786 — but Without Full Breakdown
And Finally: A Rebound in 2023, Leading to New Highs in 2025
This kind of structure is textbook Fibonacci behavior — and is part of why retracement levels remain a core part of institutional technical analysis.
⚖️ Final Thought
Fibonacci Extensions are not about telling you where the price will go — they’re about framing where the price might go if the current trend keeps moving. It’s a lens through which to read market psychology, momentum, and expectation. Combined with volume, structure, and broader trend context, they potentially help analysts build a more nuanced market narrative.
And maybe Leonardo Fibonacci would have appreciated that his 800-year-old math is still trying to decode modern human emotion, just on candlestick charts.
BTC/USD: The Bull Run Isn’t Over yet! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has finally started rising as expected and has hit all our targets, breaking above $100,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000, and now we must wait to see if it gets rejected from this level. If there's no rejection and price breaks and holds above $110,000, we could expect higher targets around $130,000 and even $163,000 in the coming weeks. So far, this analysis has delivered over 39% return!
The Previous Analysis :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
BTC/USD: Get Ready for another Bullrun ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $95,000. Soon, we should expect Bitcoin to enter the key supply zone between $99,500 and $109,500, where we’ll closely watch for the market's reaction.
Bitcoin continues to show strong demand, and we may witness another bullish spike in the short term. All previous assumptions from the last analysis remain valid.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
$BTC, Bitcoin update: what is going on?🚨 Bitcoin Update: We've just seen a decent correction on CRYPTOCAP:BTC followed by a strong pump.
I’ve warned about this already — this pump is not organic. It's largely driven by institutions and Michael Saylor, using leverage.
📉 A healthy price movement should look like a staircase: move up, consolidate, reset the daily MACD, then push higher again.
Each rally should be followed by a slight pullback — that’s how sustainable trends are built.
❌ But this natural cycle is being disrupted.
Saylor and ETFs keep buying the top to prevent corrections. Some laugh and call it incompetence, but I believe it’s strategic.
These players don’t care about making money on trades.
Their goal is to inflate the value of their companies (or stock value), which are now heavily tied to Bitcoin’s price.
That’s why they don’t want BTC to consolidate.
Every time there's weakness, they step in to buy, preventing any pullback and forcing the price through resistances and fair value gaps.
🤖 The problem? Bots — which represent +80%+ of the trading volume — are not wired this way.
They sell when BTC is overbought and buy when it's oversold.
But with institutions disrupting this cycle, exchanges end up selling BTC, and whales scoop it up — leading to lower supply on exchanges.
Exchanges then have to buy BTC back at higher prices, sometimes even at a loss — often by printing billions in Tether (USDT) to compensate.
🎈 This entire mechanism is inflating Bitcoin’s price, exactly what Bitcoin maximalists want.
But it also kills the chance for an altseason, which usually comes after Bitcoin tops out.
📊 So what’s next?
Ideally, we get a consolidation to around $91K to avoid a major bearish divergence.
If BTC breaks below $90K, we could see GETTEX:82K — but given current conditions, that’s unlikely.
On the chart, RSI is high on daioly, Williams indicator is turning bearish and MACD too. These are all signs of a most needed consolidation. But as I explained, this is cancelled at the moment.
💰 Can institutions push BTC to a new all-time high?
Yes — they basically have unlimited capital and the money printer will turn back on by September.
But once again, altseason is postponed.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MichaelSaylor #ETF #BTCAnalysis #Altseason #CryptoPump #MarketManipulation #BTCUpdate #Tether #CryptoWhales #DailyMACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoInsights #Web3
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-15 18:00 UTCBTC/USDT Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot)
Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Key Levels
Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor)
Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone)
Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point)
Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation)
Technical Rationale
MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery.
ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves.
Volume & Structure
Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move).
Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest.
Macro Context
Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum.
Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC.
Risk Advisory (Compliance Division)
False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume.
Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities.
Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility.
Actionable Insight
Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence)
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer)
Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms.
Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
Mastering Order Blocks: How to Trade Like Smart MoneyIntroduction
Order Blocks (OBs) are one of the most critical concepts in Smart Money trading. They represent areas where institutional traders have entered the market with significant volume, typically leading to strong price movements. Identifying and trading Order Blocks gives traders an edge by aligning with the footprints of Smart Money.
What is an Order Block?
An Order Block is the last bearish candle before a bullish move for bullish OBs, or the last bullish candle before a bearish move for bearish OBs. These candles represent areas where institutions accumulated or distributed large positions, leading to a market shift.
Types of Order Blocks
A Bullish Order Block appears at the end of a downtrend or during a retracement just before the price moves sharply upward. It is typically represented by the last bearish candle prior to an impulsive bullish move. Price will often return to this level to mitigate institutional orders before continuing upward.
A Bearish Order Block, in contrast, forms at the end of an uptrend or retracement where price begins a downward reversal. It is characterized by the last bullish candle before a strong bearish move. Price tends to revisit this level to mitigate before continuing lower.
How to Identify a Valid Order Block
The key to identifying a valid Order Block is first observing a strong impulsive move, also known as displacement, that follows the OB candle. The move must also result in a break of market structure or a significant shift in direction. Order Blocks that produce Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) or Market Structure Shifts (MSS) tend to be more reliable. Another important sign is when price returns to the OB for mitigation, offering a potential entry.
Entry Model Using Order Blocks
After locating a valid OB, the next step is to wait for price to return to this area. The ideal entry happens within the OB body or near its 50% level. For extra confirmation, look for a Market Structure Shift or Break of Structure on a lower timeframe. Entries are more powerful when combined with additional elements like Fair Value Gaps, liquidity grabs, or SMT Divergences. The stop-loss should be placed just beyond the OB’s high or low, depending on the direction of the trade.
Refinement Techniques
To increase precision, higher timeframe OBs can be refined by zooming into lower timeframes like the 1M or 5M chart. Within a broad OB zone, identify internal market structure, displacement candles, or embedded FVGs to determine a more precise entry point. One effective refinement is the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE), which is often found at the 50% level of the Order Block.
Order Blocks vs. Supply and Demand Zones
While they may seem similar, Order Blocks are more narrowly defined and specifically related to institutional order flow. Supply and Demand zones are broader and typically drawn around areas of price reaction, but OBs are derived from the final institutional candle before a large move and are often confirmed by structure shifts or displacement. This makes OBs more precise and actionable in the context of Smart Money concepts.
Target Setting from Order Blocks
Targets after entering from an OB should align with liquidity objectives. Common targets include internal liquidity like equal highs or lows, or consolidation zones just beyond the OB. External liquidity targets such as previous major swing highs or lows are also ideal, especially when they align with imbalances or Fair Value Gaps. It's important to adjust targets based on the current market structure and trading session.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
A frequent mistake is treating any candle before a move as an OB without verifying key signals like displacement or a Break of Structure. Entering without other confirmations, such as an MSS or liquidity sweep, can lead to poor trades. Another common error is placing the stop-loss too tightly within the OB, instead of just beyond it, increasing the chance of premature stop-outs. Traders should also avoid executing OB trades during low-liquidity sessions where price action can be unpredictable and wicky.
Final Thoughts
Order Blocks are foundational to Smart Money trading. They allow you to enter where institutions have placed large positions and offer clear invalidation and entry logic. With practice, you can identify high-quality OBs and combine them with other concepts like FVGs, MSS, and SMT for powerful, precise trades.
Practice on different timeframes and assets, and always look for clean displacement and structure confirmation. Mastering OBs is a big step toward becoming a consistently profitable trader.
Trust the Blocks. Trade with Intention.
DeGRAM | BTCUSD is continuing to rise📊 Technical Analysis
● Breakout above a multi-month triangle cleared the $95–98K zone. The price approached the long-term resistance line, steering price toward $108K.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Strategy bought 1,895 BTC and Semler Scientific added 167 BTC, marking a surge in corporate buying.
● Arizona passed legislation to invest up to 10% of $31.5B state assets in Bitcoin.
● New Hampshire governor signs crypto reserve bill into law.
● Metaplanet reaches 5,555 Bitcoin milestone with latest 555 BTC buy.
✨ Summary
Bullish breakout confirmed. Key levels: ~ GETTEX:92K support, ~$93–95K resistance, and $108K target. Strong institutional/state buying underpins the uptrend.
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Current range of BTCAfter BTC distributed over the weekend and turned immediately from distribution into reaccumulation there now could form a second accumulation model 1 or 2. I am looking for good confirmations below this current low for a possible long to the range high of the model. The technical price target for the reaccumulation model is the range high, but there also is supply at the top of the range, which got missed yesterday, so i would look out for that. If this does not work out i am looking for further deviations of the extreme points or simply a retest of a breakout/ breakdown of the range.