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Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
23/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $108,403.98 Last weeks low: $92,261.97 Midpoint: $100,332.98 Last week we saw a swing fail pattern (SFP) of the week previous' high. Ever since then it's been a steady sell off throughout the week, mostly thanks to JPows FOMC statements despite a 25bps cut as forecast. BTC is now battling the 4H 200 EMA for the first time since the US election, a much needed pullback or the start of a further sell-off? Going into the holidays we should expect a lower volume as whales take some time off, retail will remain as crypto is shilled to family members over Christmas dinner so the market will continue to be interesting. The 4H 200 EMA is a key battleground, I would have hoped to see a better reaction off the moving average initially but maybe this is bad timing due to the holidays and lower volume, or the reluctance to open new trades while markets are shut etc. This week is obviously quiet in terms of data releases, there are various token unlocks ENA, IMX, FET and burns for some key altcoins such as ISP & BONK. I think the general consensus is that normal service will resume in January once everything opens back up. So for this week it's probably better to set alerts for key areas you want to get involved in, planning for when volume returns to the markets and when Trump takes office too. Merry Christmas to all and good luck!
by ProR35
$BTC to 120k-130kBitcoin sell-side liquidity has been slowly eaten away by buying pressure. The order book isn't as tilted towards sellers as it was last month, it's getting more balanced. Buyers are still gobbling up what's left of the supply, liquidity was being eroded. With less supply, it's easier for buyers to push the price up. Buyers keep chowing down on the supply that's slowly disappearing. There's not much big supply until we hit 110k, the trend is still strong. On this vertical accumulation, if we can stay above 104k to 102k (weekly rvwap) , I'm expecting a rally towards 120k-130k zone, before we move in range again. Coinbase had a negative premium all the way up to 106k, which is weird because spot trading was mostly at a premium (which is a good sign). We're in one of those moments where Bitcoin is just soaking up all the liquidity. The altcoins are looking pretty weak while Bitcoin hits all-time highs. This isn't unusual when Bitcoin starts figuring out its price. Just be patient; the market will cycle back around.
by Tealstreet
2
Bitcoin, we're testing a correction...Bitcoin, we're testing a correction... Not to scare anyone, testing 3 situations..... on the last developed tool. 1. growth on the last 2 fractal structures is over, so a fall follows and the trend will change, but the older structure allows maximum growth around 118000. 2. a global decline follows around 46/43000 and then 37/36000/ on the current chart. 3. very, very soon we are in for a correction in the 66666 area..... many altcoins will probably make a new low and then a rapid rise - here I am testing a correction following a growth pattern. .... I wrote for the future. ...This is not investment advice. ...If anyone finds my postings useful and wants to thank me, they can always find me in the comments. Disclaimer, the author of this article has not and will not open positions in bitcoins, this article is a way to analyze the price, do not open positions based on the above.
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
Bitcoin What to do and where to run to?Bitcoin What to do and where to run to? Friends, don't forget to click like 🚀 under the idea, it's important. Divergence in trading is a multidirectional movement of the price chart and indicator. On the chart, the price of an asset moves in one direction, while the technical indicator that follows it moves in the opposite direction. Divergence warns that the current price trend may weaken and in some cases may lead to a change in price direction. In this case, we observe a double bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. This is a powerful correction signal. All traders see it, which will logically lead to fixing positions or opening shorts. What will happen next? Two main scenarios now: 1. Sellers are active and as a consequence - local correction and sideways from current values. 2. Sellers are active, but the market maker is pushing prices higher and removing sellers' stops. This will lead to a triple divergence and will further strengthen the sellers. As a result - a powerful correction and trading at the lower levels. At the moment, both scenarios have equal priority and the decision will be determined by the balance of power in the moment. The scales of the market maker may tip to either side. Write in the comments, what is your mood? Do you want to sell or strong hold?
Short
by Trade_Hive_Signals
btcusd short appratunityThe unit of account of the bitcoin system is the bitcoin. It is most commonly represented with the symbol ₿ and the currency code BTC. However, the BTC code does not conform to ISO 4217 as BT is the country code of Bhutan, and ISO 4217 requires the first letter used in global commodities to be 'X'. XBT, a code that conforms to ISO 4217 though not officially part of it, is used by Bloomberg L.P. No uniform capitalization convention exists; some sources use Bitcoin, capitalized, to refer to the technology and network, and bitcoin, lowercase, for the unit of account. The Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary and the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary use the capitalized and lowercase variants without distinction. One bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places. : ch. 5  Units for smaller amounts of bitcoin are the millibitcoin (mBTC), equal to 1⁄1000 bitcoin, and the satoshi (sat), representing 1⁄100000000 (one hundred millionth) bitcoin, the smallest amount possible. 100,000 satoshis are one mBTC. Blockchain Further information: Blockchain § Structure and design As a decentralized system, bitcoin operates without a central authority or single administrator, so that anyone can create a new bitcoin address and transact without needing any approval. : ch. 1  This is accomplished through a specialized distributed ledger called a blockchain that records bitcoin transactions. The blockchain is implemented as an ordered list of blocks. Each block contains a SHA-256 hash of the previous block, chaining them in chronological order. : ch. 7  The blockchain is maintained by a peer-to-peer network. : 215–219  Individual blocks, public addresses, and transactions within blocks are public information, and can be examined using a blockchain explorer. Nodes validate and broadcast transactions, each maintaining a copy of the blockchain for ownership verification. A new block is created every 10 minutes on average, updating the blockchain across all nodes without central oversight. This process tracks bitcoin spending, ensuring each bitcoin is spent only once. Unlike a traditional ledger that tracks physical currency, bitcoins exist digitally as unspent outputs of transactions. : ch. 5 
Short
by tenqu
Bitcoin and altcoin overview (December 20-21)Bitcoin did not follow the priority scenario and broke through the buying zone of $102,000-$100,000 (accumulated volume) without a proper secondary reaction. At the moment, the local scenario has shifted to bearish, with all major volumes located above, so we only consider going long after confirmation or consolidation above the now mirrored selling zone of $100,000-$102,000. Currently, there is a small absorption of sales in cumulative delta, but there are no reversal formations, we expect a test of the $94,200 level and will monitor the reaction. Selling zones: $100,000-$102,000 (mirrored volume zone), $103,200-$104,200 (local volume zone). Buying zones: level $94,200 (buyer aggression), ~$80,000 (volume anomaly), $77,000-$74,000 (major volume zone). For altcoins, we are only considering local formations
by Crypto_robotics
$BTC - Bullish on HTF, Short-term Bearish on LTFWe're still bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC on the higher timeframes as long as we stay above the m_rvwap On the lower timeframes, we saw some sort of distribution forming at the high. We created poor lows with market orders coming in. Pice is right at a key level, and we'll be keeping a close eye on whether there's a solid reaction at the (w_rvwap) . If there is, I'm thinking we'll see a short-term bounce, testing the previous value area around 105.6k. Failure to reclaim previous value area, we're likely roll over to 102k-101k zone.
by Tealstreet