BTC at a Crossroads: Bull Trap or Moon Mission?A possible bearish scenario is playing out on BTC, but hey—just one of many possibilities before the real bloodbath begins. 👀 This could just be a classic trap to lure people in before shaking them out. The key resistance zone is between GETTEX:97K and $101K, a big range to clear. If we flip it and close above $102K on the weekly, that would be amazing—but let’s be real, we’ll need a strong catalyst for that. If we do, then we’re likely talking about the $120K range.
On the flip side, if we drop lower from here, the most obvious support sits at $72K. Below that… well, let’s just say we don’t wanna go there—next real support isn’t until $50K. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope we don’t see those levels. Big decision point ahead—let’s see who wins this battle! ⚔️🚀
BTCUSDT trade ideas
Manifestation Manifestation generally refers to the act of making something visible or real, often through the application of visualization, affirmation, and positive thinking, in the belief that this will increase its likelihood of happening. It can also describe the outward expression of something, like a disease, or a public demonstration.
Bitcoin (BTC): We Reached Liquidity Line | Important Zone!Once again, Trump is at his finest, tweeting about another economic news (major trade deals), which pushed decent volatility into the markets, which led Bitcoin to an important liquidity zone near the $100K area.
We are going to monitor this zone now and once we see any clear signs of proper breakout or rejection, we will be looking for direction based on reaction, but as of now we are stuck at that area so as long as we have not broken it fully, we are looking for rejection from here. Let's see.
Swallow Academy
BTCUSDTSecond trade of the day is on BTCUSDT — and I’ve already entered the position.
I’ve set the Risk-to-Reward Ratio to 1:1 this time, as I entered with a higher lot size than usual.
🔍 Criteria:
✔️ Timeframe: 15M
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 98,835.27
✔️ Take Profit: 99,320.67
✔️ Stop Loss: 98,347.72
BTC Testing Critical Reclaim Zone on the 3D Chart
🚀 BTC 3D Timeframe Insight
📈 Bitcoin is pushing back into the upper region of its parallel channel, showing renewed strength after recent sideways action.
🛡️ Key Support Zone: Holding above the 99,500 – 100,500 area is vital for bulls to keep momentum alive.
⚠️ A solid close above this range could unlock the next leg up—continuation depends on this level holding firm.
👀 Price action around this zone will decide the next move—stay alert!
BITCOIN ( Is this the final DIP ? )I bought the dip but it just keeps dipping!
it's time to put on my bear glasses and check this ponzi chart !! oh yeah
As you can see in these patterns the moments everyone ready for breakout, bitcoin dumps to another lower level and kills all hopium that moonboyz, frog army and GM gurus got
if you think that you are person who manage to buy the exact number at dip you are wrong too, like people who bought at 60k and had plan to sell at 90k
RSI looks bearish like the pattern , I start shorting at 17490 and not going to close it till 16950$
If you got crypto on Huobi and Gemini exchange watch out too
funds are NOT safu
Bitcoin Analysis - 7 MayThe price continues to move within the range of $91,700 - $100,400.
In approximately 3 hours, the FED will announce its interest rate decision.
The expectation is for it to remain unchanged.
If it remains unchanged;
there could be a horizontal consolidation between 94,990 – 97,500.
If a breakout occurs, the upward movement will accelerate; otherwise, there could be a pullback to the 91,781 – 94,990 levels.
If the interest rate is reduced;
the psychological resistance at 100,400 USDT may be tested, and if surpassed, the target of 109,605 (ATH) comes into play.
If the interest rate is increased;
the supports at 94,990 USDT and below could be tested quickly.
The levels of 91,781 and 85,085 USDT become potential targets.
With stronger selling, the support zone at the 2024 ATH level of 73,776 USDT may come into play.
BTC/USDT Analysis – 4H Chart
This chart shows classic bullish continuation through ascending channels and consolidation breakouts:
A solid double-bottom structure was formed in early April
Marked the start of the uptrend
First consolidation box (~$90K–$93K)
Horizontal accumulation (highlighted gray box)
Resulted in a clean breakout and continuation
Rising channel (~$94K–$99K)
Rising Mid-trend consolidation wedge/channel
Price respected both trendlines
Eventually broke out to the upside → Strong momentum candle followed
Current Status (~$103K)
Price has broken above the rising channel
Now forming a new mini flag or consolidation at the top
Momentum is still in favor of the bulls
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Bitcoin long Long setup for those who believe that btc breaks all time highs.
If Btc does what it is doing , she will not let you buy the dips , because dips will be pretty small.
I think 101500$ might be a nice area to place a long order followed by another one at 99k.
Let us see what this month will bring on the table.
BTC to create a low and then a new ATH!BTC may go low around 95k before pushing for a new ATH. This analysis is based on past price action as seen in red lines and previous circles. It confirms to the basic market structure analysis of HH, HL and HH.
However, do note that past price actions do not indicate certainty of future price. DYOR
Bitcoin Btc usdt Daily analysis
Time frame daily
As you can see byc is moving up and down in the green tunnel
My last target (yellow rectangle) is touched and byc couldn't break the upper side of tunnel
Now, my target is 120.000 $ ( red rectangle)
If this time , btc can break the green uptrend line as resistance line , my next target is 145.000$,
👉👉Important notice 👈👈
Here is not suitable Time for entry the long or short position because btc is in the middle of the tunnel
Bitcoin Still Stuck in Resistance – Eyes on CME Gaps & USDT.D%Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) touched $92,830(first target) and started to rise as I expected in the previous idea . Overall, Bitcoin has been moving in a range for about 12 days .
Note : In general, trading in a range market is more difficult than in a trending market . If your performance in a range market is not good, it is better not to trade until the trend is clear (this is just a suggestion).
Bitcoin is currently trading at a Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500) and has failed to break through it, and it seems like Bitcoin needs more momentum to break through this zone. Do you think Bitcoin will finally break through the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500)?
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it appears that Bitcoin has completed a five-wave impulsive and we should expect Corrective waves .
The analytical conditions of the Bitcoin chart have been a bit ambiguous in the past few days, so it's better to take a look at the USDT.D% ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D ) chart to increase the accuracy of Bitcoin analysis .
USDT.D% failed to break the Support zone(5.13%-4.95%) after several attacks. It currently appears to be forming an Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern . It appears that USDT.D% needs to complete this pattern to break the support zone, and if this pattern fails , we should expect further increases =Bitcoin crash .
I expect Bitcoin to decline to the Support zone($92,910-$91,414) , 21_SMA(Weekly) and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($93,359-$92,296) and probably fill the CME Gap($92,525-$91,415) this time and then start to rise and prepare to break the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500) and fill the CME Gap($97,680-$96,455) .
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,989-$97,924
Note: If Bitcoin breaks below the Support zone($92,910-$91,414), we should expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BITCOIN short setup ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level.
hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
Disclaimer
Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary CodeIn-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four Halvings
Authors: SanTi Li, Nahida, Legolas
Abstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold."
1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation Rate
Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply.
This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold.
Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate Chart
As shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply.
As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years.
In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%.
Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025)
In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests.
At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation.
ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin Halvings
Since Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge.
Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving Cycles
The chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases.
Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588)
1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events,
Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example:
●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior
●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months prior
This phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal.
2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving,
Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin:
●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year
●2016: 286.29% increase
●2020: 475.64% increase
●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k)
Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026.
3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary Reference
After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving.
4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After Halving
Based on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving:
●2012: 9,237.15% increase
●2016: 2,825.84% increase
●2020: 700.28% increase
In the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving.
Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency.
The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential.
Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart
III. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value
The value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design.
1. Scarcity
As previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective.
Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold".
2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus Mechanism
Bitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack.
3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency Devaluation
As shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money.
4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network Design
Bitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies:
●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures.
●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability.
●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block.
●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries.
These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching.
5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar Transition
The world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities.
6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea)
Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization.
Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation
●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization)
●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles
●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent.
4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value Trends
Through the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn:
Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset.
Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital.
Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”.
Disclaimer on Perspectives:
Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability.
Risk Warning:
This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
BTC/USDT Analysis: Is the Long Trend in Question?
Hello everyone! This is a daily update from a CryptoRobotics trader-analyst.
Last week, posts were not published every weekday due to holidays — but we’re back now.
Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a support zone. Signs of defense were observed, but so far, there has been no meaningful recovery.
In the current buy zone, the power balance remains even: on one hand, market buyers failed to resume the uptrend, but on the other, we noticed absorption of sell orders according to delta analysis.
At the moment, the buyer appears weak, so entering long positions is not advisable.
The main scenario remains bearish. In addition to the two scenarios described yesterday, a third one has emerged — a short entry from the current price.
Sell Zones:
$96,100–$96,600 (local volume area)
Level $98,000
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies)
Buy Zones:
$95,000–$93,400 (accumulated volumes)
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market selling)
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volumes)
$82,700–$81,400 (volume area)
Level $74,800
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volumes)
What scenario do you think is most likely?
Share your thoughts in the comments — it’s always interesting to compare perspectives!
This publication is not financial advice.
Bitcoin: Blood in the Streets – Now is the Time!Once again, there’s blood in the streets—and from this point on I start scaling into spot positions again, slowly but deliberately.
All of these are spot entries with soft stop-losses—not hard exits, but areas I’ll react to if needed.
So why now? For one, we’re sitting right above the 38,2% Fibonacci level for the ending of the wave A. At the same time, we’re about to tap into a daily Fair Value Gap, while trying to hold the range support—two important technical levels lining up on the higher time frame.
Below that, we have an untapped VWAP at $65.5K, which could act as a magnet, as it often does. And yeah—if we go under $62K or even $60K, the classic “time to work at McDonald’s” joke comes back. But seriously: in markets like this, you need to stay calm, have some humor, and most of all, know what’s possible.
So I’m cautiously watching the S&P 500 closely, which plays a big role in this setup for me.
That’s where I stand on BTC right now—careful optimism, grounded in context and reasoning for me.