Phemex Analysis #82: BTC Breaking the $110,000 All-Time-High!Bitcoin ( PHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P ) has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $111,000, driven by strong institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic factors. This surge follows our previous analysis , where we anticipated a potential breakout above the $105,000 mark. The current rally is fueled by increased demand from institutional investors, favorable regulatory developments, and concerns over traditional financial markets.
Possible Scenarios
1. Testing $120,000
With momentum on its side, Bitcoin could aim for the next psychological resistance at $120,000. Institutional interest, as evidenced by significant ETF inflows and corporate investments, supports this bullish outlook. Technical indicators, such as the "golden cross" pattern, also suggest continued upward momentum.
Pro Tips:
Monitor trading volume and market sentiment for signs of sustained bullishness.
Set stop-loss orders to protect against sudden reversals.
2. Rejection and Retest of $100,000 Support
After reaching new highs, Bitcoin may experience a pullback to test the $100,000 support level. This consolidation could be a healthy correction before the next leg up.
Pro Tips:
Watch for buying opportunities near the $100,000 support zone.
Be cautious of false breakouts and wait for confirmation before entering new positions.
3. Bearish Reversal Due to U.S. Treasury Bonds News
Rising U.S. Treasury yields and fiscal concerns have led to increased volatility in traditional markets. A significant shift in investor sentiment could trigger a bearish reversal in Bitcoin's price.
Pro Tips:
Stay informed about macroeconomic developments, particularly U.S. fiscal policies and bond market movements.
Long-Term Accumulation: For investors with a longer-term perspective, significant price dips near lower supports—such as $92750, $83000, or even $66810—could represent attractive opportunities to accumulate BTC at discounted valuations.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's recent surge past $110,000 marks a significant milestone, reflecting growing institutional adoption and favorable market conditions. While the bullish trend may continue, traders should remain vigilant and prepared for potential corrections or reversals influenced by macroeconomic factors. Employing sound trading strategies and staying informed will be key to navigating the evolving landscape of Bitcoin's price movements.
Pro Tips:
Armed Your Trading Arsenal with advanced tools like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time strategy adjustments at Phemex. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
BTCUSDT trade ideas
Bitcoin (BTC): Price Moving Towards All Time High (ATH):Pretty choppy start to the week we had on Bitcoin, where the week started with decent sell-off momentum and now the price is back in upside momentum, heading towards our target of ATH.
We are waiting for proper movement there, where we expect to see some big liquidity movements, maybe even movement to $115K, before seeing the correctional movement (similar to last time we touched the ATH area).
Expecting to form a double top here.
Swallow Academy
#BTC Rising Wedge📊#BTC Rising Wedge📉
🧠From a structural perspective, we have reached the target area of the bullish cup-with-handle structure, so we need to be vigilant about the occurrence of a pullback.
➡️From a graphical perspective, we have formed a rising wedge near the red resistance area, which is generally regarded as a bearish model.
➡️If the rising trend support line does not hold and falls directly, then we can also expect further declines to occur
⚠️Note that counter-trend trading in an uptrend must be risk-managed.
Let's see👀
🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬
BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Daily BTC Technical Analysis – Bearish Evidence (Short Setup)1. Rising Wedge Pattern
The daily chart shows a Rising Wedge formation – a technical pattern that often signals a potential trend reversal downward.
Moreover, the price increase is accompanied by decreasing volume, reinforcing the likelihood of an upcoming correction.
(Source: Investopedia)
2. Indicators in Overbought Territory
RSI (Relative Strength Index): above 70 – signals overbought conditions.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index): above 100 – also signals overbought.
Williams %R: above -20 – again, confirms excessive buying pressure.
These conditions typically indicate market exhaustion and a high chance of short-term pullback.
(Source: CentralCharts)
3. Bearish Harami Candlestick Pattern
A Bearish Harami has formed on the chart – a potential reversal pattern, especially after an uptrend.
It often marks a shift in market sentiment and weakening momentum.
4. Bearish Divergence
There is a clear bearish divergence between price and RSI – while price makes new highs, RSI is trending lower.
This classic signal suggests weakening buying power and a possible trend reversal.
(Source: CentralCharts)
🧭 Key Support Levels to Watch
$107,000: first minor support area.
$100,000: a strong psychological support level.
$92,000: deeper support, aligned with historical trading zones and moving averages.
📊 Summary
While Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains bullish, the short-term indicators suggest a potential correction.
Traders looking for short opportunities should monitor the technical signals above and use key support zones as potential profit targets.
BTCUSDT – Mild Pullback, Support Holds FirmBTCUSDT remains in a clear uptrend with a structure of higher highs and higher lows, after breaking out of a prolonged consolidation pattern since early May.
The price has surged from the 106,000 resistance zone and approached the technical target around 112,000 – an area that is currently triggering a slight pullback.
At the moment, the support zone around 106,700–107,800 aligns with a demand area and the EMA34, likely serving as a springboard for the next upward move.
If BTC continues to consolidate around this zone without breaking below 106,700, the 112,000 level could be breached, paving the way for a move toward higher targets.
BTCUSDT Hello everyone!
Today's first signal came from the BTCUSDT pair. After reaching an all-time high of $112,000 yesterday, BTC formed an ABCD pattern and retraced down to the Fibonacci extension level 1.000. In this pattern, a buy trade is typically initiated after the price retraces to the 1.000 level, and the Take Profit is set at the 0.618 Fibonacci level drawn from the B wave to the D wave.
Although I didn’t open this trade based on the ABCD strategy, I noticed the pattern forming and wanted to share it with you purely for educational purposes.
As for the current active trade, here are the detailed parameters:
🔍 Trade Details:
✔️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:1.50
✔️ Trade Direction: Buy
✔️ Entry Price: 110844.19
✔️ Take Profit: 111497.09
✔️ Stop Loss: 110408.00
🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I'm sharing a trade I'm personally taking based on my own system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes.
📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven approach to trading?
💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay informed about future trade ideas and advanced market insights.
2021 Pattern Fully Repeating: Is Bitcoin’s Second Historic Drop Historical Pattern Repetition and Projection for Bitcoin
While reviewing Bitcoin’s weekly Heikin-Ashi chart, I overlaid the full 2020-2021 move (strong rally → sharp correction → recovery) on the current cycle. The two structures line up almost candle-for-candle.
Key observations:
1. The historical fractal projected a target zone around 112,000 USDT. Bitcoin has now reached that price area and, just like in 2021, is showing the first signs of a pullback.
2. If the fractal continues to play out, the market could print a higher swing high after the current correction, before entering a deeper mid-cycle drawdown.
3. Major support to watch sits near 92 k – 95 k (previous weekly highs) and, lower, around 72 k where the higher-low structure would break.
4. Fundamental drivers are different this time: ETF inflows, the 2024 halving, and macro liquidity conditions. These may stretch or compress the timing, so the pattern is a road-map, not a guarantee.
5. Risk management is essential. I am treating 92 k as the first invalidation level; a weekly close below it would neutralize the bullish fractal and force a reassessment.
6. As always, past performance does not assure future results. Use this analysis as one data point among many, keep stops in place, and size positions responsibly.
I will keep updating this thread as new weekly candles confirm or negate the setup. Feel free to share your own charts and let’s compare notes.
Good luck and trade safe!
Short Trade on BTC with Entry / TargetsBTC has formed bearish divergence on the daily chart with the RSI. There is a untapped FVG at the target area that needs to be tapped into before BTC is ready to move higher.
1:3 R/R
Entry : 106,861
Stop Loss: 109,000
Target : 100,455
you can keep a runner to a target of 98,000 if you want to.
BTC Bull & Bear scenarios: 80K or 130KPotential SHORT position (swing):
* R:R: anywhere from 1:1 to 2:1 (depends on any scale out strat)
* ENTRY: when local upward trendline is broken
* STOP: above ATH
* TARGET #1: .382 fibs (~94K)
* TARGET #2: .786 fibs/longstanding upward TL zone (80-85K)
Potential LONG position (swing):
* R:R: ranging from 1.5:1 to 2:1 (depends on any scale out strat)
* ENTRY: when ATH is broken (~110K)
* STOP: below new (flipped) support zone (~103-105K)
* TARGET #1: 120K (.786 fib ext)
* TARGET #2: 130-135K (1:1 fib ext)
This is my first ever TV idea (:
#BTC/USDT Highest Daily Close! What it Means? $117k on cards?Bitcoin Daily Update – Bulls Take the Lead
Bitcoin just recorded its highest daily close in history at $106,849.99 (Binance), surpassing the previous record of $106,143.82 set on January 21st. While the difference is minor in percentage terms, it's still a meaningful win for the bulls.
The next key level to watch is $113k to $117k, based on the Fibonacci extension target.
For confirmation, we need another solid daily candle close above the current range. The $106K resistance has already been broken, and BTC is holding above it, indicating strong bullish momentum.
To avoid getting trapped in a fakeout, consider adding the 14 EMA to your chart. As long as BTC holds above this EMA, the uptrend is likely to continue.
Once BTC's show is over, Altcoins will likely follow suit.
INVALIDATION OF THIS CHART: A close below $102k in confluence with 14EMA in Daily.
I hope this update gives you actionable insight. If it did, feel free to follow and like. Let me know your thoughts or questions in the comments, I read every one.
Thank you
#PEACE
Bitcoin Overextended? Watch These Key Levels for the Next Move!BTC/USDT 1H – Retrace Before the Next Leg? 🚦
Bitcoin has shown impressive strength recently. On the 1-hour chart the current price action looks overextended 📈. After a strong impulsive move up, we’re seeing signs of exhaustion, with price stalling near the $111,800 region. Liquidity appears thin on the buy side, and there’s a cluster of potential sell stops resting below the current high in the form of sell stop.
I’m anticipating a retrace into the Fibonacci zone, with key levels at the 50% - 61.8% retracement. This area aligns with previous consolidation and could act as a magnet for price, especially as liquidity is swept from late long positions. If we see price rotate and break structure bullishly at my point of interest, I’ll be looking for a long entry opportunity. 🔄
Fundamentals & Macro Backdrop 🌍
On the fundamental side, Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. Ongoing uncertainty in global politics and central bank policy continues to drive volatility across risk assets. Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks and the NASDAQ remains significant—recent data shows that when the NASDAQ pulls back, Bitcoin often follows suit. If we see a correction in tech stocks, be prepared for a retrace in BTC as well. 📉
Institutional interest is still strong, but short-term sentiment is cautious as traders await clarity on inflation, interest rates, and regulatory news. Keep an eye on U.S. economic data releases and any major headlines out of Washington or global hotspots, as these can quickly shift risk appetite.
Fundamentals and macro news remain key drivers—stay nimble!
Let’s see if BTC can reload for another leg up, or if broader market weakness drags it lower. Trade safe! 🚀
BTC is in an ascending triangle and we are an upward movement.Bitcoin is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, which is a bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. This suggests that buyers are gaining strength and there is a high probability of an upward breakout. The fact that we're already seeing an upward movement supports the idea that a new uptrend may be starting.
In short:
Bitcoin is forming an ascending triangle, and we're witnessing an upward price movement, which could signal the beginning of a stronger bullish trend.
BTCUSD UPDATE - 22- 05- 2025This chart illustrates a potential rising wedge pattern in the Bitcoin/USDT (BTC/USDT) 45-minute timeframe on Binance. Here's a breakdown of the key elements:
Chart Analysis:
Rising Wedge Pattern (Bearish):
The price is moving within converging trend lines (marked in blue), forming a rising wedge — typically a bearish reversal pattern.
The projected breakdown (blue arrow) suggests a move downward out of the wedge.
Support Zone (Yellow Box):
A strong historical support zone is highlighted, around the $103,000–$104,500 range.
This is the likely target if the price breaks down from the wedge.
Bearish Target:
If the breakdown occurs, the price may fall to the yellow support zone.
Volume spikes on recent candles suggest increasing interest or volatility.
Stop Loss Zone (Red Area):
The red shaded area at the top of the wedge likely represents a stop-loss for a short trade setup.
Current Price: Around $110,708.20 at the time of the snapshot.
Summary:
The chart implies a potential short opportunity based on the rising wedge breakdown, targeting the yellow support zone. Confirmation would be needed from a strong bearish candle closing below the lower wedge boundary with increased volume.
Would you like help identifying entry/exit points or risk management strategies for this trade setup?
BTC | Testing ATH — Breakout or Trap?Daily close just under ATH at 109,609
We had only 1H confirmation above ATH, with the first 4H close above ATH likely in 30 minutes. The breakout volume is well above average (Volume MA: 172.89k), but daily candle still below resistance.
This could be:
• A Sign of Strength (SOS) transitioning into Phase E markup,
• Or a premature breakout without higher timeframe validation.
⸻
Breakout Validation Checklist:
1. 1H Close Above ATH (~110k) ✅
▸ Initial signal confirmed, but not sufficient alone.
2. 4H Close Above ATH (Pending ~30 mins)
▸ Must close above 110k, with no strong upper wick.
▸ Confirms intermediate-term strength.
3. Daily Close ≥ 110k
▸ Still missing. Required for macro breakout confirmation.
▸ Watch for candle body, not just wick.
4. Throwback & Support Hold at 109.6–110k
▸ Ideally after 4H confirmation, a retest and bounce = textbook
SOS → BU → Markup pattern.
5. Invalidation Risks:
▸ Daily close <109k with high volume
▸ RSI divergence on 4H
▸ Rejection from 114k–116k Fib cluster
▸ Large bearish engulfing below ATH
⸻
Wyckoff Context:
We’re likely in Re-Accumulation Phase D, testing the breakout.
No signs of UTAD or distribution — but low conviction breakouts at ATH are known trap zones.
⸻
What’s Next?
If 4H + Daily confirm, momentum may push toward:
• TP1: 114,449 (Fib 0.618)
• TP2: 116,199 (Measured move)
• TP3: 118,237 (Upper Fib extension)
⸻
Follow for real-time BTC setups based on structure, RSI, and volume — no hopium.
Like & share if this helps clarify the levels you’re watching.