Shorting the Rejection-Retest at 94 350 USDT into the FVG on BTCDescription
On the 15-minute chart, BTCUSDT is in a larger up-trend (higher highs, higher lows) that has paused in a tight digestion range. Volume has contracted into this zone, signaling indecision rather than conviction. This trade idea teaches how to combine structure, liquidity context, and precise execution for a high-odds short.
Structure Flailing at 93 223 USDT
Price tested 93 223 twice and was rejected both times. That “Double-Tap Top” defines clear resistance and a reference for my entry zone.
Rejection-Liquidity Zone near 94 000–94 800 USDT
I plotted the volume-profile POC and VAH/VAL to show institutional liquidity. The sweep up into this range creates a magnet for stops—my “Rejection Liquidity.”
Entry Candle at 94 350 USDT
After the wick-high sweep, the very next candle closed bearishly at 94 350 USDT (the swing-high close). I place my limit-sell at 94 350 so I trade the confirmed retest and rejection.
Stop-Loss at 94 800 USDT
The high of the rejection wick (94 800) sets my stop. Any close above that level invalidates the short thesis and protects capital.
Take-Profit at 92 150 USDT
I target the filled Fair-Value Gap at 92 150, which aligns perfectly with the prior swing-low demand zone—an ideal spot for price to pause or reverse.
Risk & Reward
This setup risks 4 500 ticks (94 800 – 94 350) to capture 22 000 ticks (94 350 – 92 150), yielding an R : R of approximately 1 : 4.9. That asymmetric payoff is only available when entry, stop, and target align with proven structural and liquidity pivots.
Backup Plan – Bullish Flip
If price closes above 94 800 USDT, I abandon the short and await a retest of 94 800 as support. I look for a bullish rejection candle on rising volume, confirm it against my 50-bar HTF swing-high or session POC, then flip long.
Higher-Timeframe Pivot Targets (50 USDT Increments)
94 250 USDT
98 600 USDT
105 700 USDT
108 300 USDT
Key Terms & Why They Matter
DTT (Double-Tap Top): shows exhaustion at a key swing high
FVG (Fair-Value Gap): highlights imbalances that price often fills
POC/VAH/VAL: map where big traders accumulated or distributed
RL (Rejection Liquidity): stop-hunt zones ripe for reversals
