Phemex Analysis #97: What's Next for Bitcoin, After $123k?!Bitcoin ( PHEMEX:BTCUSDT.P ) recently made history by hitting an all-time high of $123,251 on July 14, 2025. However, enthusiasm was quickly tempered as BTC retraced by approximately 6%, dropping sharply to around $115,696 on July 15. Currently, the price has partially recovered and is trading at about $118,200.
With the market sentiment at a pivotal juncture following this volatile movement, traders and investors are carefully considering their next steps. Let's dive into several possible scenarios that might unfold in the coming days.
Possible Scenarios
1. Bullish Continuation (Breakout Above $123k)
If Bitcoin quickly regains bullish momentum, it may retest and surpass its recent high at $123,251. Breaking decisively above this resistance could trigger another strong rally, driven by renewed market optimism and potential institutional inflows.
Pro Tips:
Entry Strategy: Look to open or add to existing positions upon confirmation of a clear breakout above $123,251, especially if accompanied by high trading volume.
Profit Targets: Key resistance zones for profit-taking after a breakout include psychological levels at $128,000, and the significant milestone at $130,000.
Risk Management: Use protective stop-loss orders placed below the recent low around $115,000 to manage downside risks effectively.
2. Extended Consolidation (Range-Bound Scenario)
Bitcoin could enter a period of price consolidation, fluctuating between support at approximately $115,000 and resistance near $123,000. This scenario often occurs when the market awaits clearer directional cues.
Pro Tips:
Range Trading: Employ a grid-trading strategy, placing buy orders near support ($115,000–$116,000) and sell orders around resistance ($122,000–$123,000) to maximize profits from short-term volatility.
Monitoring Indicators: Keep an eye on declining trading volume, which often signals the potential for an upcoming breakout or breakdown.
3. Bearish Pullback (Correction Scenario)
Given the rapid recent surge to all-time highs, a deeper market correction remains possible. If BTC decisively breaks below support at $115,000 with strong selling pressure, further declines towards $107,218 or even $98,132 could ensue, especially if accompanied by negative broader market sentiment.
Pro Tips:
Short Opportunities: Experienced traders might explore short positions if BTC convincingly breaks below the $115,000 support level.
Accumulation Strategy: Long-term investors can strategically accumulate positions around significant lower support levels such as $107,218 and $98,132, provided price stabilization signals are evident.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is currently at a crucial technical and psychological level after hitting its latest all-time high. Traders should closely monitor the outlined scenarios—particularly watching key resistance at $123,251 and essential support at $115,000. By utilizing disciplined risk management, proactive profit-taking strategies, and careful market analysis, investors can effectively navigate BTC’s ongoing volatility and strategically position themselves for the next significant move.
🔥 Tips:
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Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
BTCUSDT trade ideas
Cycle Top Theory: BTC 2025–2028 : The ₿ Line BreakoutCycle Top Theory: BTC 2025–2028" explores the probabilistic path of Bitcoin through the remainder of the current bull cycle. Combining historical market structure, halving-driven supply shocks, and volatility-based modeling, this thesis outlines potential top scenarios ranging from $xxxK to $xxxK.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) reflects increasing selling!🚨 Bitcoin Market Update 🚨
Bitcoin recently hit an All-Time High (ATH) but is now experiencing a downward correction. Multiple technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum:
📉 Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) reflects increasing selling pressure.
📊 A bearish engulfing pattern confirms the market is trending lower.
📕 The synthetic order book reveals a heavy concentration of sell orders.
📈 The 50 & 100 SMA are acting as strong resistance levels, keeping price action suppressed below them.
🔍 Key Watch Level: If BTC breaks above the 50 SMA, we could see a potential pump. However, as of now, all confirmations point toward a bearish continuation.
💡 DYOR – Do Your Own Research
🛑 Not Financial Advice
The $BTC Swing Indicator Signals Low RiskHappy New Year! The indicators that make up the Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator (BSTI) are bottoming in aggregate. I've been searching for nice daily swing trade indicators and have been swapping them out in the BSTI. Therefore, the BSTI has gone through changes, but it is almost ready for prime time. I'm thinking of changing out one more indicator. The solid ones I'm keeping are the SOPR momentum, money flow, aggregate funding rate (AFR), MACD, RSI, hash rate capitulation, Bollinger band trend, Coinbase premium, plus directional movement, and the transaction fee spike indicators. Besides the AFR, which is neutral, the indicators are signaling generally low risk.
--Da_Prof
Global liquidity downtrend cometh!During this current BTC cycle, major uptrends in global liquidity have corresponded to major uptrends in the market 72ish days later. The last major uptrend in liquidity is about to run its course, pause, and then downtrend. If this relationship holds, we are at or near at least a pause in the local up trend. I have my popcorn ready to see if this plays out.
Note: The global liquidity prediction pauses until December 11th and then downtrends, so if we see floating higher prices until that point and then a pause, the relationship would still be valid.
Second Note: I will publish the BGL (Bitcoin Global Liquidity) indicator very shortly. Please test it out and DM me if you see any issues or have suggestions.
--Da_Prof
More up📈 Trading Tip – Long Position on Bitcoin (BTC)
As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $117,395, after retreating from an intraday high of $120,196. The price action follows a recent rally toward $123,000, followed by a healthy correction to the $116,000 area.
Technical Overview:
• The resistance zone at $119,000–$120,000 has been broken and could now act as future support.
• A potential inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming, suggesting a breakout toward the $160,000 level, if the support at $114,000–$115,000 holds.
• On the 4-hour chart: MACD is showing a renewed bullish crossover, and RSI is rising steadily without entering the overbought zone — both supporting further upside toward $125,000–$130,000.
🔹 Suggested Entry: Between $117,000 – $118,000, ideally after confirmation of support near the previous breakout zone.
🔹 Target 1 (TP1): $125,000
🔹 Target 2 (TP2): $130,000–$135,000 (depending on momentum continuation)
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): A confirmed break below $115,000 (preferably on the daily close or with strong sell pressure)
⚙️ Risk Management: Do not risk more than 2–3% of your total capital on this trade.
📅 Watchlist Note: Keep an eye on major economic data (e.g., U.S. CPI or Fed announcements) as they can heavily affect market liquidity and volatility.
Bitcoin BTC price analysis📈 Two weeks have passed since the previous analysis of the OKX:BTCUSDT chart, and the market has decided to go with the 1️⃣ scenario.
Less than 3% remains to reach $125,000, and the price could easily get there by inertia, but that's a minor detail.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is updating its ATH, and total liquidations on the crypto market over the past 24 hours are “only” $750 million, of which almost $450 million is accounted for by #Bitcoin.
Weak, very weak... Previously, longs were liquidated for $2+ billion, and it was reported that the actual amount of liquidations was significantly higher due to the fact that the exchanges' data was not fully disclosed. (For the sake of objectivity, at that time, the lion's share of liquidations was accounted for by altcoins, but now this is not the case).
◆ During this time, Trump introduced new tariffs — the market was “on a roll” — it swallowed it and didn't even notice the news.
◆ Tomorrow, July 15, the US CPI will be announced — the forecast is for inflation to rise from 2.4% to 2.6% (although there are rumors that the situation in the US economy is much worse and this may "come to light" tomorrow).
◆ July 16 - PII announcement - these indicators may act as a “cold shower” to bring the market out of its euphoria.
◆ From July 14 to July 18, the US Congress is considering three key crypto laws, including the GENIUS Act. Major players consider this a powerful driver. Perhaps the current growth has already “played out” and priced in expectations for news.
🪐 And this trading week will end on 18.07 with the start of Mercury retrograde, even the US Congress is postponing all important matters, and you still don't believe in it ))
🖐 Long positions are certainly beneficial, appropriate, and in line with the trend at present, but it is advisable to hedge them with stops, because as mentioned above: the price is rising, and there are few liquidations. During the previous decline in the cryptocurrency market, there were significantly more liquidations of long positions, and they may wish to repeat this.
And with the #BTCUSD price correction, there will be a fixation: some will have profits, and some will have losses in stablecoins, which would then be logical to reinvest as capital in altcoins. First in something more voluminous and less risky, and in the last stage, they will pump everything in a row)
But until then, we still need to survive and preserve our deposits.
So, in your opinion: correction to one of the levels:
1️⃣-$110k 2️⃣-$97k 3️⃣-$90k
or
is everything written above complete nonsense, and the market growth has only just begun to “take off”?
Bitcoin Expecting Bullish FormationBitcoin could be triggered by negative news from the U.S. regarding tariffs, which may create market uncertainty and push investors toward risk-off or alternative assets like crypto.
Currently, Bitcoin is reacting to the decline caused by fundamental negative data, but bullish sentiment remains alive as buyers attempt to hold key support zones. The focus now shifts to the psychological resistance near 110K
You may find more details in the chart.
Ps support with like and comments for more better analysis.
BTC makes new all time highs!Crypto has been soaring today.
Ethereum and BTC pumping liquidity!
Fed minutes came out today around 2pm, indicating rate cuts at next meeting and throughout the rest of the year and crypto absolutely loved that.
Crypto thrives in a cheap liquidity environment, rallying in potential rate cuts.
We took profits on IBIT calls - still holding longs in the BTC market expecting higher price.
Bitcoin may correct after false ATH breakoutBitcoin is forming a false ATH breakout. There is a possibility of a correction beginning.
Consolidation is forming with a local upward support line (accumulation of potential before correction).
A breakdown of 110K could cause the correction to continue to 0.5 - 0.7f.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #124👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indicators. As usual, I’ll review the futures triggers for the New York session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, Bitcoin made a bullish move yesterday after stabilizing above the 109391 level and managed to register a new ATH around the 112000 level.
⭐ The resistance at 111747 has effectively held back further price increases, and the price has reacted to it and entered a corrective phase.
✔️ I believe the correction could continue down to 110256. The next lower support levels are 109391 and 107853.
📈 If you already have a long position open, I recommend holding it. If the 111747 resistance breaks, a strong bullish trend could begin, and having an open position from earlier could have a big positive impact on your account.
🔼 If 111747 is broken, we can consider opening new long positions. If this level breaks, I’ll post a higher timeframe analysis to identify the next major resistance levels.
💥 RSI entering the Overbuy zone and rising volume would provide strong confirmation for this position.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Bitcoin Dominance is still dropping. Yesterday, after breaking 64.81, it continued its downward move and is now approaching the 64.49 level.
🔍 If this level breaks, the drop could continue further, but in my opinion, after the recent drop, it's time for BTC.D to enter a correction phase.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Total2 has also had a bullish move, breaking through the 1.18 and 1.2 levels, and continues to rise.
🎲 The next resistance is at 1.24, which the price may target. However, I think there’s a high chance of a correction or consolidation phase starting soon.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Looking at Tether Dominance, after the recent drop and the break of 4.72, it reached the 4.63 level and has formed a base there.
✨ If 4.63 breaks, USDT.D could head toward 4.56. In case of a pullback, the first level to watch is 4.72.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8 –(MASSIVE 'Resistance or Breakout')🚀📊 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 8 – The Final Test is Near! 🔥🔍
Welcome to Part 8 of “Where Can Bitcoin Go?” – the update of this long-running series. Since mid-2023, not much has changed in the structure. That’s the power of solid technical analysis – levels don’t lie.
🟨 The Setup
Bitcoin is now approaching a third test of a major structural resistance. If you’ve followed my 1-2-3 strategy, you know this is where decisions are made:
✅ Test 1: Rejection
✅ Test 2: Rejection
⏳ Test 3: Now pending… the TERMINAL and DECISIVE 'Breakout or Rejection', and this will change everything.
But here’s the deeper layer:
We’re not just testing one sequence. We now have two separate sets of 1-2 rejections —
🔹 One set from 2021 (the Red 1 and 2)
🔹 And a recent one in 2025 (the white 1 and 2)
This upcoming test is the third rejection attempt on both timeframes, making it a rare and extremely significant technical moment.
📐 Price is now near a critical ascending trendline around $115K–$116K, which has been the gatekeeper to parabolic moves in previous cycles.
🔄 Based on historical halving cycles:
548 days post-halving in 2016 → ATH 2017
565 days post-halving in 2020 → ATH 2021
Halving #4 was in April 2024 → 👀 Could this point to a new ATH by end of 2025?
📊 Probabilities
🔹 83% chance we see the third test before year-end
🔹 57% chance of breakout
🔻 43% chance of rejection
⚠️ And here’s the reality check:
If we see that breakout — the market unleashes itself. We’re talking major pumps, potential follow-through moves, and price discovery into untouched zones like $188K, $197K, and beyond.
But... if we get rejected, it won’t be pretty. We could retest major levels like $66K or worse, and lose momentum that took years to build.
And unfortunately — this isn’t like 18K, or 40K, or even the 79K retest.
Things are much more complicated now.
The sentiment, the structure, the risk profile — they’ve all evolved. We cannot afford to have the same blind bullishness we had in those earlier phases. This is a mature part of the cycle, and it demands discipline over emotion.
💬 What’s your take?
Will Bitcoin finally break through?
Is this just another fakeout in disguise?
Are you feeling this same tension in the market?
Let’s talk structure. Let’s talk price. Let’s talk reality.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
Lingrid | BTCUSDT Short-Term Bullish Momentum The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . BINANCE:BTCUSDT continues to trade within a strong upward channel, supported by consecutive higher highs and an ascending trendline. After breaking above the range near $108,200, price briefly peaked above $110,000 before pulling back to retest the mid-support zone. Current action shows a rebound from the upward trendline, suggesting buyers are preparing for another leg up toward $110,500 and possibly the $112,000 resistance zone.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: around 108,000 or below
Sell trigger: break below 107,000 with close under channel
Target: 110,500 – midpoint resistance, followed by 112,000
Buy trigger: bounce from trendline and reclaim of 109,000
💡 Risks
Weak rebound could signal range re-entry and stall upside
Break below the trendline may shift bias to 105,000
Multiple rejections near 110,000 could indicate topping pressure
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Bitcoin is bullish in world of War or Peace Simple and easy it is like Gold but better version and limited edition one.
Both(BTC & XAU) are bullish most of the time because future is not for Paper Tokens like Dollar or Yuan or Ruble or Euro or ..
Currency of strong countries seems interesting But soon with more laws and Taxes and Rules against each other Economic which USA start it, more and more Trades and things are going to take place in Crypto where the money is still non Trackable or it is tax free.
Also in a world of War as i mentioned in previous Analysis too, more Buys and Sells are going to take place via Crypto instead of countries currency.
Some countries Now are buying and selling weapons from their enemies even and it is possible in Crypto which no one judge or find the transactions.
interesting things which can not all written here are now need Crypto more than ever.
These prices are like a joke and soon maybe with or without some stop loss hunting to the downside and kicking out buyers with leverage market of Crypto will face another Huge gain.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
<<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Bitcoin - Last move down, ready for ATH?Bitcoin is showing clear signs of a corrective move within a broader bullish structure. After forming a second consecutive lower high, price is now pressing downward, creating space for a potential liquidity grab and discount entry. Despite this short-term weakness, the macro narrative remains intact. The all-time high remains untapped above, holding a thick layer of liquidity that the market has yet to collect.
Liquidity and Fib Confluence
There is a visible equal low structure around the 107.8k area. This is a prime zone for a sweep, where smart money is likely to trigger sell stops before reversing. Below that lies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) extending into the 106.5k range. Within this same zone, we also have strong Fibonacci confluence, especially at the 0.786 level near 106.2k. This makes it a high-probability entry area if price delivers a clean displacement after the sweep.
Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish
The market is respecting a trendline drawn across the lower highs, giving the impression of sustained bearish control. However, this is likely a trap. Once the sell-side liquidity below the 107.8k low is taken and the imbalance around 106.5k is filled, price will be primed for a reversal. The true target lies much higher, with the all-time high around 110.5k as the main magnet.
FVG Fill and Reversal Mechanics
This entire drop is likely engineered to fill inefficiencies left behind earlier in the move up. The FVG acts not only as a magnet, but also a springboard for the next leg. Expecting price to show a reaction at the 0.786 level, where the order flow could shift and confirm a bullish reversal, is key here. Ideally, we see a clean sweep, a displacement, and a reclaim of previous structure before targeting higher levels.
Projection and Trade Setup
The anticipated sequence is a sweep of 107.8k, fill of the gap and fib zone down to 106.2k, then a potential reversal structure forming. If that structure confirms, the next major move should aim for the untouched all-time highs, where significant liquidity remains resting. Traders should remain patient and let the sweep and confirmation unfold before entering.
Conclusion
We are watching a classic setup where engineered downside movement is likely to create the conditions for a powerful reversal. As long as price respects the 106k zone and gives a strong reaction, the path toward the ATH remains wide open.
___________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
BTCUSDTImportant Update on BTC
I’ll keep it simple — BTC has reached a new all-time high of $123K and is now showing signs of a possible correction. The RSI is forming a bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe.
The first support level to watch is $110K. If BTC breaks below that, we could potentially see a drop toward $94K.
In the long run, my target remains $140K, but for now, a correction seems likely.