BTCUSDT | Short Bias | Smart Money Exit | (May 12, 2025)BTCUSDT | Short Bias | Retail Long Trap & Smart Money Exit | (May 12, 2025)
1️⃣ Short Insight Summary:
Bitcoin is showing signs of a classic retail trap—while spot buying is visible, smart money appears to be exiting. Momentum looks exhausted as retail traders pile in long, setting the stage for a potential downside move.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Short
Entry: Around $102,700
Stop Loss: Above local high / invalidation zone
TP1: $102,200–$101,391
TP2: $99,296
Final TP: $96,353
Partial Exits: Recommended at each target zone for risk management
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Order flow shows someone actively buying spot BTC at key levels—interesting but likely bait for retail.
❌ Interest in longs is rising while overall interest rates drop—suggesting retail is overexposed.
✅ Money has already started flowing out on the 30-minute chart, which confirms weakening structure.
❌ This setup reflects a typical scenario where professionals exit while late longs get trapped. Supply-demand logic still rules here.
4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note:
Already locked in profits from earlier longs. Now eyeing short opportunities if price hits the ideal zone and confirms reversal behavior.
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BTCUSDT trade ideas
Bitcoin at key zone - Breakout or rejection?MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN is once again at a critical resistance level. A breakout above $109K would confirm a new ATH and likely spark another leg up, but a strong rejection here might signal that the rally was a trap, echoing patterns we’ve seen in past cycles.
My Take: We’re at a make-or-break moment. Confirmation from this level will decide the next big move.
What’s your take—breakout or rejection?
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Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Risky position!In a bullish market, making a bearish trade is more risky.
But after the daily candle closes in the same way, you can open a sell position with a risk of 1%.
Finally, use our team's analysis as a confirmation, and never enter a trade without your own analysis.
I hope you are always profitable and kind.
Skeptic | BTC Breaks $100K: Is the Uptrend Just Getting Started?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Bitcoin’s finally back above $ 100K , but will this rally keep charging forward? 😊 In this idea, we’re diving into Bitcoin across multiple timeframes , hunting for spot and futures triggers, and wrapping up with a look at BTC dominance. Let’s kick things off with the Weekly Timeframe. 📊
Weekly Timeframe: The Big Picture
As I’ve mentioned in previous episodes, the major trend is still a solid uptrend. Why? Per Dow Theory, we’re consistently making higher highs and higher lows. Plus, volume backs this up—rallies come with heavy volume, while corrections see lighter volume. Corrections haven’t even touched the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, which all points to the uptrend staying strong. Honestly, I’m not selling my spot holdings right now—this trend’s too good! Let’s zoom into the Daily Timeframe for spot triggers.
Daily Timeframe: Spot Triggers
Our previous spot trigger was a buy above $ 88,500 , and since it activated, it’s delivered about 18% profit so far—nice! A quick note: if your capital or risk management is too aggressive, please scale back to stay in profit. If you hit a stop loss, risk no more than 2-3% of your total capital—no more. Now, let’s analyze the chart. Over the past four weeks, we’ve kicked off a solid uptrend, and the corrections feel healthy. Volume’s increasing, showing the trend’s got power. After hitting resistance at $ 105,000 , it looks like we’re gearing up for a correction after a three-wave uptrend. Keep this in mind: $ 107,000 is a major resistance and could be a great spot trigger. If we break $ 107,000 , go long with a stop loss below $88,000, risking max 3%. That’s a solid setup. Let’s move to the 4-Hour Timeframe.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
Our previous long trigger at $85,850 was a banger—if you watched the video and went long with 10x leverage, you’re up about 200% . Congrats if you caught it! 🙌 Moving forward, I’ll share some new long and short triggers that could be useful. For a long setup, we need to see a reaction at $ 105,000 again, then break that resistance to open a long. But keep your risk low because we’ve got a major resistance at $ 107,000 looming, and the odds of getting stopped out are higher. I’m saying this now so you don’t complain later! In these conditions, don’t obsess over confirmations from indicators like RSI. Movements are sharp, and by the time you wait for a confirmation, the price has already moved. Stick to your main triggers to open positions. For short setups, I’ve got nothing right now. We’re in a strong bullish trend without even a hint of weakness, so I see no reason to go short. Let any sharp pullback pass first, then we can open shorts with confidence if bearish momentum kicks in. Don’t open shorts against the trend just for a 1% chance of a crash. Patience, patience, patience—that’s the key to success in financial markets. The market’s always been here and always will be, so don’t FOMO or trade against your strategy. Let’s talk BTC.D next, but first, if this has been helpful, I’d appreciate a like and a subscribe—it means a lot! 😊
BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
Let’s get a big-picture view of BTC.D—Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. If this ratio is in an uptrend, liquidity is flowing from altcoins into Bitcoin. If it’s downtrending, it’s moving from Bitcoin to altcoins. Right now, we’re above an uptrend line, so it’s better to go long on BTC since it’s growing faster than most alts. But if the trendline breaks and we drop below 60.27, we can assume an altseason is starting, and that’s when we pivot to buying altcoins. On the daily, BTC.D has been rising nicely, and while some altcoins are starting to wake up, there’s no trend reversal yet. If you check BTC pairs, you’ll notice altcoins are still performing weakly compared to BTC. So, if you’re holding altcoins, it’s better to wait for a clear trend change in BTC.D before buying—that’s the logical move. If you have questions about the analysis or want me to analyze a specific altcoin or symbol, drop it in the comments. BTW, I’m Skeptic! 😄
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
Will it fall? Yes. The reasons are HERE!Reasons why it will drop:
1. hypurrscan.io
This is an insider — take a closer look.
2. Selling pressure during the first attempt to rise.
3. Selling pressure is still ongoing.
4. Very low liquidity ahead. It's easy to push the price down because the rise happened with almost no consolidation.
5. Whoever is applying pressure needs to accumulate cheaper.
BTC - Ranges overview (update) Let's get back to BTC and let's see how the pa moved in the past days.
As we noted previously IF we held the HTF FVG (yellow box) we should expect to trade back towards 90K-100K.
We held perfectly and traded back towards our target. Hopefully the scalpers amongst you guys managed to get some nice entries (feel free to go back to the previous idea and watch how we managed to call out the 'bottom'.
What is next...
IF we 100K expect us to aggressively trade towards price discovery and new all time highs.
IF we fail to hold 90K expect us to trade back towards 80K.
Pretty simple...BE PATIENT...LET THE MARKET SHOW YOU ITS HAND...AND TRADE WITH IT.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
BTC - long squeezeI'll be truthful I don't think the expression "long squeeze" is a real thing - but it should be!
Daily TF
Next level down i think is 98K should the local support @ 102K break.
0.5 fib puts us at 89K / a touch on a macro uptrend / touching a key price point where BTC has oscillated for several months. This move would accomplish a liquidity grab and fill a fair-value-gap. If this happens it could be a fantastic long opportunity.
If prices sees continuation to the downside the 618 would be the next natural retracement level but would result in a break below said macro uptrend and thus could create a macro bearish move - 67K would be my guess.
BTCUSD – Multi-TF Bearish SFP & Fib Retrace Before ATH Rebound
Bearish SFP printed on 4H / 8H / 12H / 1D at $103 345 – $104 985 after a parabolic ~$94 k → $104 k run and multiple rejections at $104 k–$106 k resistance.
Trump tariff-cut announcement sparked a sharp spike into resistance that was quickly sold off, confirming heavy supply at $104 k – $106 k.
Baseline plan: drop to 0.786 Fib ~$102 586, then 0.618 Fib ~$100 613, before a push toward the ATH ~$109 588.
Trade Setups
Short – SFP Breakdown
Trigger: 4H close below $103 345
Entry: ≈ $103 300 on retest
SL: $105 500 (above swing high)
TP1: 0.786 Fib ≈ $102 586 RR ≈ 0.7
TP2: 0.618 Fib ≈ $100 613 RR ≈ 2.6
Long – Fib Rebound
Trigger: Bullish reversal at 0.618 Fib / FVG cluster ≈ $100 613
SL: $99 300 (below FVG)
TP1: SFP top / range high ≈ $104 145 RR ≈ 2.7
TP2: ATH ≈ $109 588 RR ≈ 6.8
Bitcoin BTC Is Entering Into CorrectionHello, Skyrexians!
I got a lot of comments to analyze BINANCE:BTCUSDT because it has almost reached ATH and people don't understand what is happening. In my opinion last pain ahead and after that likely we see great gains.
Let's take a look at 4h time frame. We can finally notice the full 5 waves cycle which is likely to be finished. If you remember my recent analysis this is just the wave 1 inside higher degree wave 3. Awesome Oscillator has printed divergence, so there is a great chance that correction has been already started. The target for this correction is 0.5 Fibonacci at $90k. I don't recommend you to short this move if you are not experienced because this is trade against the trend.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
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Bitcoin Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a buying opportunity around 103,000 zone, Bitcoin is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 103,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.