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TradeCityPro Academy | Dow Theory Part 3👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel! Welcome to the Educational Content Section of Our Channel Technical Analysis Training We aim to produce educational content in playlist format that will teach you technical analysis from A to Z. We will cover topics such as risk and capital management, Dow Theory, support and resistance, trends, market cycles, and more. These lessons are based on our experiences and the book The Handbook of Technical Analysis. 🎨 What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis (TA) is a method used to predict price movements in financial markets by analyzing past data, especially price and trading volume. This approach is based on the idea that historical price patterns tend to repeat and can help traders identify profitable opportunities. 🔹 Why is Technical Analysis Important? Technical analysis helps traders and investors predict future price movements based on past price action. Its importance comes from several key benefits: Faster Decision-Making: No need to analyze financial reports or complex news—just focus on price patterns and trading volume. Better Risk Management: Tools like support & resistance, indicators, and chart patterns help traders find the best entry and exit points. Applicable to All Markets: Technical analysis can be used in Forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and even real estate. In the previous session, we explained Principles 3 and 4 of the Dow Theory. Be sure to review and study them, and if you have any questions, let us know in the comments. 📑 Principles of Dow Theory 1 - The Averages Discount Everything (Not applicable to crypto) 2 - The Market Has Three Trends 3 - Trends Have Three Phases 4 - Trend Continues Until a Reversal is Confirmed 5 - The Averages Must Confirm Each Other 6 - Volume Confirms the Trend 📈 Principle 5: Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Signal Appears Full Explanation: Dow Theory says that once a market picks a direction—like going up (bullish trend) or down (bearish trend)—it keeps moving that way until something big and obvious says, “Nope, we’re turning around!” Think of it like momentum: the market’s lazy and sticks to its path unless it gets a solid reason to switch. What’s a Trend? It’s the market’s overall direction. Uptrend means higher highs and higher lows (prices keep climbing). Downtrend means lower highs and lower lows (prices keep dropping). Sideways means it’s stuck in a range. What’s a Reversal Signal? In an uptrend, if prices stop making new highs and start forming lower highs and lows, plus break a key level (like support), that’s a sign the trend’s flipping. In a downtrend, it’s the opposite—higher highs and lows plus breaking resistance mean it’s turning up. Why Does This Happen? Markets reflect crowd behavior. When everyone’s buying or selling, the trend builds steam and doesn’t stop until the crowd’s mood shifts big-time. Key Point: Small dips or spikes don’t count. A little drop in an uptrend? Normal. You need a clear pattern or a big break to call it a reversal. Practical Use: Traders use this to avoid panic-selling on tiny moves and wait for strong signals before jumping ship. Simple Example: It’s like riding a bike downhill—you keep rolling fast until you hit a wall or slam the brakes. 📊 Principle 6: Trends Must Be Confirmed by Volume Full Explanation: This principle says a trend isn’t legit unless trading volume backs it up. Volume is how much is being bought or sold. If the trend’s real, volume should match it—high volume means lots of people are in on it, low volume means it might be fake or weak. Uptrend: Prices rising with growing volume? That’s a strong bull run—buyers are all in. Prices up but volume’s tiny? Could be a fluke or manipulation. Downtrend: Prices falling with big volume? Sellers mean business—bear trend’s solid. Falling prices with low volume? Might just be a quick dip, not a real crash. How Volume Confirms: It’s like a lie detector for trends. Big volume says, “This move’s for real!” Low volume says, “Eh, don’t trust it yet.” Extra Detail: In an uptrend, if volume starts dropping, it’s a warning—buyers might be losing steam. In a downtrend, low volume could mean sellers are running out of ammo, hinting at a bounce. Why It Matters? Dow believed volume shows the market’s true energy. No crowd, no power—simple as that. Practical Use: Traders check tools like OBV (On-Balance Volume) or volume bars. If a stock jumps but volume’s dead, they might skip it it’s a trap. Simple Example: It’s like a party if tons of people show up dancing, it’s a real vibe. If just two guys are there, it’s probably lame. 🎉 Conclusion We’ve reached the end of today’s educational segment! We’ll start by explaining all of Dow Theory’s principles, and in the future, we’ll move on to chart analysis and the strategy I personally use for trading with Dow Theory. So, make sure you fully grasp these concepts first so we can progress together in this learning journey! 💡 Final Thoughts for Today This is the end of this part, and I must say we have a long journey ahead. We will continually strive to produce better content every day, steering clear of sensationalized content that promises unrealistic profits, and instead, focusing on the proper learning path of technical analysis. ⚠️ Please remember that these lessons represent our personal view of the market and should not be considered financial advice for investment.
Education
by tradecitypro
2
#BTC: IS THE BULL MARKET OVER??🚀 Hey Traders! If you're finding value in this analysis, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for high-accuracy trade setups that actually deliver! 💹🔥 Is the Bull Market Over? 🤔 The big question on everyone's mind—Has the bull market ended? My answer is NO! Let’s break it down: 📊 Technical Perspective: As you can see in the chart, BTC recently broke out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly timeframe. This current dip? It’s nothing but a healthy retest of the breakout ($72k-$75k). Once BTC successfully confirms this retest, we should see a strong push to the upside. Patience is key! 🌍 Fundamental Perspective: 1️⃣ Institutional Adoption: Big players like BlackRock, Fidelity, and global hedge funds continue accumulating BTC, Also adopting by some big countries like US proving confidence in the long-term trend. 2️⃣ ETF Inflows: Bitcoin Spot ETFs have seen billions in inflows—indicating that traditional finance (TradFi) is betting on BTC’s future. 3️⃣ Macroeconomics: With the Fed slowing down rate hikes, liquidity might start flowing back into risk assets, benefiting BTC and crypto as a whole. 🔍 The Key Level to Watch: A successful bounce from the neckline of this pattern will confirm strength and could send BTC soaring to new highs! 🔥 What’s your take? Drop your thoughts in the comments, and let’s navigate this market together! 🚀💰
Long
by CoreCrypto1
1
What About The RSI? BitcoinDaily MA200 has been working as support; support confirmed, for Bitcoin on the daily timeframe. This is a good signal, a strong one and all is good. I also looked at the trading volume and this is also good. Clearly rising for a while now. A bullish bias. I was wondering about the RSI. How is Bitcoin's daily RSI looking like? Great news. Bitcoin's daily RSI hit its lowest level in February 2025 since August 2023. That's a strong one. The low in February on this oscillator ended up being higher than August 2024. This produces the hidden bullish divergence signal. Very interesting. MA200 sits perfectly between 0.5 and 0.618 Fib. retracement level support. This level now sits at $83,000. Bitcoin will never trade again below 80K. The bottom is in. Hold on, I have more. Let's revisit an update that I shared in a previous publications (5 days ago) related to the correction dynamics. 🅱️ Bitcoin's Correction Is Over An advance from $74,000 to 110K is not the same as an advance from $20,000 to 74K. The correction from 74 to 49K, -33%, took five months because of the prolonged consolidation between 20,000 and 74,000. The correction from 110 to 78K totals a nice -28%. Support is found at 0.5 Fib. retracement in relation to the previous bullish phase. This is the exact same level that was hit in the previous correction from 74 to 49K in July/August 2024. The current correction does not need to extend any longer. The rise from 49 to 110K amounts to 124%. The rise from 20 to 74K amounts to 270%. It is logical for the previous correction to be stronger than the current one because of the size of the bullish wave. Since this bullish wave was smaller, the correction also becomes small. We are now in 2025 and everybody knows that Bitcoin is going up. If the market couldn't push Bitcoin past 49K last year when doubt was the norm, remember the evil tendencies of the SEC, why would the market produce a stronger correction now when the SEC has been transformed to reasonable and conscious? Instead of a weapon this institution is now doing the job that it was supposed to do in the first place; guidance and support. The SEC is now offering strong support to the Cryptocurrency market and this is great. Conditions are better now and fundamentals continue to improve. There is reason to believe that the bottom is in, not only based on the correction size but also based on the fact that Altcoins are turning strongly green. The correction is over. This is great news. We are going up. Once the market hits bottom... The new All-Time High will happen in late 2025. Bitcoin can easily hit $180,000, $200,000 or more (can be $500,000 to $1,000,000). The Altcoins portion of the market will blow up. Not everything will grow, but most of the market will. All those projects without a real base will lose momentum and the real Cryptocurrencies will shine the most. There are lots of choices; choose wisely. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
How to pick a benchmark for you portfolio and beat the market What is a benchmark? A benchmark is an index or a basket of assets used to evaluate the performance of an investment portfolio In the context of portfolio analysis the benchmark serves as a point of comparison to determine whether a fund a strategy or an investment is performing better worse or in line with the reference market. In the current chart, Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) is displayed with a solid and larger blue line in relation to other cryptocurrencies for the current period. Benchmarks are essential tools for institutional and private investors as they allow measuring the effectiveness of asset allocation choices and risk management Additionally they help determine the added value of an active manager compared to a passive market replication strategy. Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:NDX Benchmark analysis example: NASDAQ:TSLA - NASDAQ:AAPL - NASDAQ:NDX What is the purpose of a benchmark The use of a benchmark in portfolio analysis has several objectives 1) Performance Evaluation: Provides a parameter to compare the portfolio's return against the market or other funds 2) Risk Analysis: Allows comparing the volatility of the portfolio against that of the benchmark offering a measure of risk management 3) Performance Attribution: Helps distinguish between returns derived from asset selection and those linked to market factors 4) Expectation Management: Supports investors and managers in assessing whether a portfolio is meeting expected return objectives 5) Strategy Control: If a portfolio deviates excessively from the benchmark it may signal the need to review the investment strategy How to select an appropriate benchmark? The choice of the correct benchmark depends on several factors: 1) Consistency with Portfolio Objective: The benchmark should reflect the market or sector in which the portfolio operates 2) Representativeness of Portfolio Assets: The benchmark should have a composition similar to that of the portfolio to ensure a fair comparison 3) Transparency and Data Availability: It must be easily accessible and calculated with clear and public methodologies 4) Stability Over Time: A good benchmark should not be subject to frequent modifications to ensure reliable historical comparison 5) Compatible Risk and Return: The benchmark should have a risk and return profile similar to that of the portfolio Most used benchmarks There are different benchmarks based on asset type and reference market Here are some of the most common. Equity FRED:SP500 Representative index of the 500 largest US companies. NYSE:MSCI World Includes companies from various developed countries ideal for global strategies FTSE:FTSEMIB Benchmark for the Italian stock market NASDAQ:NDX Represents the largest technology and growth companies Bonds Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index Broad benchmark for the global bond market JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index EMBI Benchmark for emerging market debt [* ]BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Index Representative of the high-yield bond market junk bonds Mixed or Balanced 6040 Portfolio Benchmark 60 equities SP 500 and 40 bonds Bloomberg US Aggregate used to evaluate balanced portfolios Morningstar Moderate Allocation Index Suitable for moderate-risk investment strategies Alternative HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index Benchmark for hedge funds Goldman Sachs Commodity Index GSCI Used for commodity-related strategies Bitcoin Index CoinDesk BPI Benchmark for cryptocurrencies A reference benchmark is essential in portfolio analysis to measure performance manage risk and evaluate investment strategies The selection of an appropriate benchmark must be consistent with the strategy and market of the portfolio to ensure meaningful comparison. Understanding and correctly selecting the benchmark allows investors to optimize their decisions and improve long-term results.
Education
by thequantscience
6
Juicy profits yesterday! My next trade!Friday Bitcoin Update 🎯 Congrats to everyone in the Inner Circle who took yesterday’s short—you should be in great profit by now! Make sure you have de-risked. I know some of you also caught the long from the 30m supply zone, so big well done. As Friday looms, we must exercise caution heading into the weekend, which is usually marked by lower volume and sideways action. There were at least two opportunities yesterday to enter the short. Bearish Scenario 🐻 If the bear trend continues, I believe there will be one more chance to enter short down to 81K This will likely come from the 15m supply zone we are trending toward What do I need to see to enter? A clear MS change on the 5m We may not get a clean MS entry, judging by the last bearish action, but if we do and I’m at my screen, I’ll take it I will de-risk quickly due to the weekend conditions Bullish Scenario 🟢 If we continue bullishly, we will need to see a clear flip in internal structure before considering a long 92K is a point of interest (POI), along with the top of the range at 94K It’s Friday! I don’t usually trade weekends, and the market is typically slow. We’re well into London hours—will New York bring the action? Let’s see. 🚀
Short
by Trade-Journal
2
$BTC - Big players are making their distributionAfter 4 months of growth, BTC sees this week the change in its Monthly Heiken Ashi candle (step line in black). On the vertical volume scale of 20 months, there is no notable strength. I like to use the 3-month simple moving average (yellow line) and the 1-year simple moving average (purple line) to track the trend. I believe it will target the 1-year simple moving average, where there is a high-volume region in the 20-month history (blue highlighted area with 34% of the volume compared in 5 ranges). I do not expect an increase in March, maybe in April if this is a pullback move. If that's the case, 75k-80k is a good entry as long as it doesn't go beyond the 1Y SMA.
by Mordredis
2
My Idea for Bitcoin Next Push! 120k SOON!CRYPTOCAP:BTC will move downside to the support area around $67-73k max this mid March, then will have a good reversal reaction after hit support line in the short period of time creating long shadow to grab liquidity. Then next will move back to bullish till at least $120k in around 1.5-2months. And the others coin(altcoin) CRYPTOCAP:ETH CRYPTOCAP:SOL etc will pump in the first week of April. ALTSEASON IS COMING! HALLELUYAH! 🔥 JOIN OKX www.okx.ac
Long
by CryptoFire007
1
BTC/usdtFirst, the decline reaches the 66,865 range, then the 87,000 range to fill the CME gap, and then the decline continues until the liquidity accumulation at the price of 45,000. From this price, we are accompanied by an upward wave of excitement to the 133,000 range, which is the target of the cup and holder pattern that was formed in the past. The final visit to the middle of the channel and the discount that Bitcoin will give us for the last time, and flight and flight and flight...
by ehsungholami7
1
Understanding Trump and future of US and BTCUnderstanding Trump As investors, we constantly analyze news and charts to find opportunities to make money. But today, I want to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is a story about Donald Trump. Predicting his future actions could be key to making profits in various markets. Lately, Trump may seem like a madman—Hunting down on illegal immigrants, imposing tariffs on countries, trying to befriend Russia, and being outright rude to other alliences. He even once demanded that Greenland be put up for sale. Over the next few chapters, I’ll explain my idea about why Trump does what he does. You will realize he’s not as crazy as he seems. Hopefully, this will help us gain some foresight into the future and, in turn, make profitable investments. Chapter 1 : The U.S. A Frog in a Boiling Pot From Trump’s perspective, America today is like a frog sitting in a pot of water that’s about to boil. Not just lukewarm, but dangerously close to reaching a boiling point. Like a setting sun, the U.S. is slowly losing its position as the world's dominant superpower and is, in his eyes, on the verge of decline. What we are feeling about US is more like this. On the surface, it looks like things are going well. Ordinary Americans seem to be doing fine, the stock market keeps hitting new highs, employment numbers are strong, and the U.S. military remains the most powerful in the world. There are no obvious signs that America is losing its status as the world’s leading power. But Trump sees things differently. In his view, if the U.S. continues on its current path, it will eventually lose its dominance to China and decline into a second-tier nation, much like Britain or Spain. Why does he think that? This perspective is likely influenced by books like Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order and Paul Kennedy’s The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. These books analyze how once-great powers—such as Britain, the Roman Empire, and Spain—declined over time. They outline three key reasons why major powers historically collapse: 1 Excessive debt – Poor government management and uncontrolled money printing lead to inflation. 2 Overextension through war or expansion – Excessive military spending due to prolonged wars or imperial overreach. 3 Extreme wealth inequality and social conflict – Rising tensions and divisions among the population. And I would add one more factor to this list. 4 Failure to adapt to new economic, social, and technological trends - Trump believes that these factors are causing the U.S. to lose its status as the world's leading power. In a few decades, he sees America becoming like Britain—reminiscing about its past glory—or like Russia—resource-rich but lacking real global influence. So, will the U.S. really decline? "The water in the pot is already getting hot. No one knows exactly when it will start boiling, but if these four factors continue fueling the fire, eventually, it will."
Education
by hcinteractivegames
1