BTC 17 of may, 2025 / 1H TFI'm expecting BTC to retest nearest fibs, grab liqudity near 101 800 and then rally to the previous ATH levels.
Let's see how it unfolds :)
BTCUST trade ideas
Bitcoin Warning - Breakout or Fakeout?BTC has been resilient and trying to establish a 100K base.
I think BTC is going to perform a liquidity sweep by briefly breaching ATH's before it has a correction / sell wave back down to $75-$78K level.
I'd be cautious trying to buy the breakout if we try for it in the next couple weeks.
After this correction BTC will likely pursue New all time highs in 2026.
$120K -$130K should be very easy to obtain in 2026 with possibility of a far greater overshoot.
BITCOIN SHORT SETUP BTC SHORT TRADE
ENTRY : 105489.9
PROFIT : 102602.5
STOP : 106355.4
ALL trading ideas have entry point + stop loss + take profit + Risk level.
hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied. Please also refer to the Important Risk Notice linked below.
Disclaimer
Understanding Williams %R In TradingThe Williams %R is a fast, sensitive momentum oscillator ideal for short-term trading strategies. It provides early signals of overbought and oversold conditions by comparing the current close to the high-low range over a defined lookback period (typically 14 bars).
By understanding where Williams %R fits among other oscillators, traders can better utilize it within a well-rounded, context-aware strategy.
✅ 1. What Are Momentum Indicators?
Momentum indicators are technical analysis tools used to measure the speed and strength of a price movement over time. Rather than focusing on absolute price direction, momentum indicators assess how quickly prices are changing and help traders identify potential turning points, continuation patterns, or overbought/oversold conditions.
They are particularly useful in sideways or ranging markets, where momentum shifts often precede breakouts or reversals.
Key characteristics of momentum indicators:
Often bounded within fixed ranges (e.g., 0–100 or -100 to 0)
Typically leading indicators, aiming to provide early entry/exit signals
Help spot divergence between price and momentum — a common sign of weakening trends
✅ 2. Understanding the Williams %R Indicator
≫ The Origin: Developed by Larry Williams
The Williams %R indicator was developed by Larry Williams, a renowned trader and author, in the late 1970s. Williams introduced this tool to identify potential market turning points by measuring a security’s momentum relative to its recent high-low range.
Originally intended for short-term futures trading, the indicator has since become a staple for both day traders and swing traders across various markets, including stocks, forex, and crypto.
Larry Williams famously used this indicator in his trading system when he won the 1987 World Cup Trading Championship, turning $10,000 into over $1 million in a single year—demonstrating its real-world impact when used effectively.
≫ Formula Breakdown
The Williams %R formula is as follows:
Williams %R= = (HighestHigh − Close) / (HighestHigh - LowerLow) × −100
Highest High = The highest price over the lookback period (typically 14 periods)
Lowest Low = The lowest price over the same lookback period
Close = The current closing price
This formula normalizes the current price within its recent trading range and expresses it as a negative percentage between 0 and -100.
Example:
If price is at the highest point in the range → %R = 0 (overbought)
If price is at the lowest point in the range → %R = -100 (oversold)
This inverted scale (compared to RSI) helps traders see how close the current price is to the top or bottom of the recent range, providing clues about potential reversal zones.
Williams %R in Pinescript:
//@version=5
indicator("Custom Williams %R", overlay=false)
length = input.int(14, title="Period")
highestHigh = ta.highest(high, length)
lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, length)
williamsR = (highestHigh - close) / (highestHigh - lowestLow) \* -100
plot(williamsR, title="%R", color=color.purple)
hline(-20, "Overbought", color=color.red)
hline(-80, "Oversold", color=color.green)
≫ Key Settings: 14-Period Default and Customizations
The default setting for Williams %R is 14 periods, which Larry Williams originally recommended. However, this lookback period can be customized based on your trading style and timeframe.
Here’s how different settings can be applied:
❖ Intraday Trading (5-minute to 15-minute charts):
Use a 9 to 14-period setting for faster, more responsive signals.
Ideal for scalpers or short-term traders seeking quick entries and exits.
❖ Swing Trading (1-hour to Daily charts):
Stick with the standard 14 to 21-period range.
Balances sensitivity and reliability; helps capture short- to mid-term reversals.
❖ Position/Long-Term Trading (Weekly charts or higher):
Use 21-period or longer to smooth out signals and reduce noise.
Best for spotting high-conviction turning points with less frequent trades.
🔁 Customization Tip:
You can also use multiple %R settings (e.g., 14 and 50) together to analyze short-term momentum inside longer-term trend cycles, adding depth and context to your strategy.
≫ Interpretation: Overbought and Oversold Conditions
The Williams %R scale ranges from 0 to -100 and is interpreted as follows:
❖ Overbought: %R above -20
Indicates that price is near the top of its recent range
Suggests potential for a pullback or reversal downward
❖ Oversold: %R below -80
Indicates price is near the bottom of its recent range
Suggests potential for a bounce or reversal upward
⚠️ Important: Overbought does not mean “time to sell” and oversold does not mean “time to buy.” These are conditions, not signals. Use them with confirmation tools like support/resistance zones, candlestick patterns, volume analysis, divergences and more.
✅ 3. Using Williams %R Effectively
≫ Entry Signals
Williams %R can be used to time entries based on shifts in momentum, especially around key overbought and oversold zones.
❖ Overbought/Oversold Reversals
This is the most common use of Williams %R - identifying turning points when price reaches extreme levels in its recent range:
Overbought Zone (above -20):
Signals potential bearish reversal
Look for confluence with resistance levels or bearish candlestick patterns
Confirmation often comes as %R drops back below -20
Oversold Zone (below -80):
Indicates a possible bullish reversal
Stronger when aligned with support or demand zones
Confirmation often comes when %R climbs back above -80
⚠️ Note: These are signals of potential exhaustion, not guaranteed reversals. Always pair with price action context or volume.
❖ Pullback Continuations
Williams %R can also support trend-following strategies by identifying momentum retracements within an ongoing trend:
In an uptrend, wait for Williams %R to dip below -80 (short-term oversold) and then re-enter above -80 as the trend resumes
In a downtrend, look for a rally where %R rises above -20 (short-term overbought), then re-enters below -20 to confirm trend continuation
This technique helps you buy the dip or sell the rally with better timing and risk control.
≫ Exit Signals
Williams %R can also guide exit timing by showing when momentum is weakening, especially as price moves away from extremes.
❖ Returning to Neutral Zones
When Williams %R moves back toward the -50 midpoint, it can signal that the current move is losing steam.
In a long position, if %R returns from oversold to above -50 but then flattens or dips again, it may be time to take profit
In a short position, if %R rises from overbought back below -50, it suggests selling pressure is decreasing
Exiting before full reversals can help you lock in gains while reducing risk exposure.
❖ Crossovers at Extremes
Some traders look for quick crossovers back through key thresholds (-80 and -20) as exit or reversal alerts:
If %R drops from above -20 back below it, the overbought condition may be ending
If %R rises from below -80 back above it, the oversold condition may be ending
These sharp shifts often precede momentum flips, making them useful for both exit timing and new trade setups in the opposite direction.
❖ False Signal Filtering Techniques
Williams %R can produce false signals, especially in trending or volatile markets. To improve signal quality, consider these filters:
Use with Trend Filters:
Apply moving averages (e.g., 50- or 200-period MA) to define trend direction and avoid counter-trend trades
Only trade overbought signals in a downtrend and oversold signals in an uptrend
Add Price Action Confirmation: Look for candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing, pin bars) or support/resistance reactions before acting on %R signals
Volume Analysis: Confirm signals with volume spikes or divergences to validate strength or weakness in a move
Multiple Timeframe Confluence: Use Williams %R on a higher timeframe (e.g., 4H or daily) to establish the broader context, then align trades on a lower timeframe
Avoid during High Volatility Events: News releases and earnings reports can create erratic spikes that cause misleading %R readings
❖ Best Market Conditions: Ranging vs Trending Markets
Williams %R performs best under specific market conditions. Understanding when to use it—and when to avoid it—is key to success.
Ranging Markets: Ideal Conditions
Williams %R excels in sideways or consolidating markets
In ranges, price frequently oscillates between support and resistance, making overbought/oversold signals highly effective
Reversals from the -20 or -80 zones often align with the top and bottom of a trading range
Trending Markets: Use With Caution
During strong trends, Williams %R can stay in the overbought or oversold zone for extended periods
This makes reversal signals less reliable and more prone to false exits
In trending conditions, it’s better to:
Use Williams %R for pullback entries
Combine it with a trend filter to stay on the dominant side of momentum
✅ 4. Optimizing the Period Setting (5, 9, 14, 21, etc.)
The length of the lookback period in Williams %R significantly affects signal behavior:
Shorter periods (5, 9):
Produce faster, more frequent signals
Best for scalping and intraday trading
More sensitive but can result in higher noise and false signals
Default period (14):
Balanced responsiveness
Suitable for swing trading and multi-hour charting
Longer periods (21+):
Generate fewer but more stable signals
Best for position trading or slower-moving markets
Reduced noise but may lag in volatile conditions
🔍 To optimize:
Test various period values under consistent rules (e.g., entry/exit and risk management stay the same)
Compare outcomes across different market environments (trending, ranging, volatile)
✅ 4. Key Takeaways
Williams %R is a momentum oscillator that measures the close relative to the recent high-low range on a scale from 0 to -100.
It was developed by Larry Williams to help identify short-term overbought and oversold market conditions.
A reading above -20 suggests overbought conditions, while a reading below -80 indicates oversold conditions.
The default 14-period setting balances signal responsiveness and stability for most traders.
Shorter periods generate faster signals with more noise, while longer periods produce smoother signals with more lag.
Williams %R works best in ranging or sideways markets rather than strongly trending environments.
Traders can use %R for reversal signals or to confirm pullbacks within a broader trend.
Filtering signals with price action, support/resistance, or volume improves accuracy.
The indicator is not meant to be used in isolation and requires confirmation before acting on signals.
Backtesting across different timeframes and period settings is essential for identifying optimal usage.
Performance metrics such as win rate, R:R ratio, and drawdown help evaluate the indicator’s reliability.
Williams %R is easy to code and automate in platforms like TradingView using Pine Script.
The indicator adds value when used as part of a broader, disciplined trading system.
Williams %R is a simple yet deeply insightful momentum oscillator. While often overlooked in favor of more complex indicators, it provides a unique lens into market sentiment and price extremes. Its greatest strength lies in its clarity — helping traders time entries and exits with greater confidence when paired with context.
BTC/USDT Analysis. Moving According to the Scenario
Hello everyone! This is CryptoRobotics trader-analyst with your daily market update.
Yesterday, Bitcoin reached our sell zone at $105,000–$105,700, and we saw an immediate reaction upon testing the lower boundary of that range.
The scenario outlined yesterday remains valid. We expect a corrective move with potential to reach $100,000, from where a continuation of the primary long trend may be considered.
Sell Zones:
$105,000–$105,700 (absorption of market buys),
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies).
Buy Zones:
~$100,000 (absorbing volume),
$98,000–$97,200 (local support),
$93,000 level,
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance),
$88,100–$87,000 (absorption of market sells),
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume),
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone),
$74,800 level,
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume).
This publication is not financial advice.
BITCOIN BUY LIMIT Hello friends
If you are a risk taker, this position is for you...
Given the price growth, we expect a correction, so in the pullback we have identified important points to buy with capital and risk management and move towards the specified goals.
*Trade safely with us*
IMMEDIATE BTC SCALPSFor most of these plays, we are looking for MS change on the 15m and higher.
Remember to de-risk asap.
Bitcoin Hits PRZ — Reversal or Breakout?As I expected in my previous idea , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to rise from the Support zone($95,760-$95,200) . One of the news that pumped Bitcoin was " Arizona Becomes Second U.S. State to Adopt Bitcoin for State Treasury "
Bitcoin is trading in the Resistance zone($100,200-$97,700) and near the upper lines of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern , Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Also, we can see a Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks.
From an Elliott wave theory , it seems we should wait for corrective waves because the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($100,888-$99,826) is very important and I DO NOT expect it to be broken by a single attack .
Another point we can pay attention to is the existence of two small CME Gaps , the first CME Gap($98,430-$98,380) is likely to be filled.
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $98,100 in the coming hours, and if the Support zone($97,900-$97,240 ) is broken, we should expect further declines, so I will label this idea as ''Short' '.
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $98,500-$97,514
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) with the good volume, we can expect a new All-Time High(ATH).
Do you think Bitcoin is on track for a new All-Time High(ATH)?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTC Medium Term and Local Work for 2025 18 05 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Everything is shown extremely accurately, according to technical analysis, logic based on cyclical repetition, and liquidity consolidation zones as a result of price and trading movements. This trading idea, with precise reversal zones and targets, will last you for 31 weeks. That is, for 7 months.
The previous trading idea BTC/USD Triangle. Medium-term and local work , published on 7 06 2024, it lasted me almost 1 year. It has 63 local work updates (I don't spam with new trading ideas on principle). So, nothing will get lost, you can follow everything, read, possibly use it as training material on a live chart, as a whole explanation of local work, what is really happening on the market, profit/loss potential, always before the price movement, and not after the fact. I show what is, that is, a chart and potential work from the position of a trader, not a crypto marketer.
🟣 Local and medium urgent now
1️⃣💸 The bullish triangle itself (which is not there yet, I have depicted it on the chart for you) acts as a stop and consolidation zone (zone “psychology 100”, reset in trend No. 1). This is the easiest to manipulate and the most probable scenario. This will just be the summer consolidation. Instead of it, there may be:
2️⃣💸 Rising wedge , but more in shape like a triangle (essentially a wedge, there is a meaning of a triangle, but it was formed on aggressive pump news), with a large short liquidity takeout, and not very good logic of the TA movement after that... But, this is a bullish scenario, although quite aggressive.
3️⃣ Working out the bearish targets of the triangle (non-corrective price movement within its canvas). Stopping the decline in the designated zone and reversal upward (continuation of the trend). I emphasize the importance of not fixing the price below the zone of targets of the local corrective decline, which will not break the trend.
4️⃣💸 Double top (or triple). Double top as in 2021 in the distribution zone. This is the least likely scenario, but the most negative, as it breaks the trend. But, this is the least likely scenario, primarily because of the altcoins.
Altcoins in 2021 and now.
4️⃣In 2021, when Bitcoin formed a double top, they (altcoins) were in “space”, that is, in their distribution zones (+500-1000% of the average price of the set).
🔽Now everything is the other way around, they are in capitulation zones (most of them) or in their long-term accumulation channels :
Liquid -90-93%
Medium liquid -93-96%
Low liquid -96-98% or some are already scams or on the verge of it...
Some altcoins have pumped up earlier. That is, they left their long-term accumulation zones earlier. For example: SUN, XRP, DOGE, PEPE, SOL and so on... But there are very few of them, as distributing (raising the price, holding it and selling, inspiring to buy expensive when everything is cheap) in a bearish altcoin trend is very irrational, and you need a lot of money to go against the general market trend.
Main trend (most of it, chart since Binance Exchange foundation) for clarity on a large time frame of this local zone for work.
BTC Primary trend. Secondary — expanding triangle.
Bitcoin MA 50 crosses 100If history repeats, this could be even bigger gains soon ahead. The blue MA 50 just crossed the orange MA 100 which happened in Oct '24 as well as Oct '23 -- this time happening so soon could defy historical pattern, but with a possible Fed interest rate cut in the works, this could be huge.
After the recent Fed announcement that there would be no interest rate cuts at this time, the reason given was that the market was holding steady, though a recession was not entirely ruled out. If a recession starts to rear its ugly head before June 17th Fed meeting, they may change their outlook and enact interest rate cuts to ensure the economy can continue unscathed. Since Trump has walked back tariffs on China and is still working with the rest of the world to lower tariffs, the interest rates may not be cut in June.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
A recession is still on the horizon, even without rate cuts and with lowered tariffs. The damage has already been done by tariffs, enough so that reports of impending empty shelves soon to hit stores this month is still a concern. People flock to other investment strategies when the market is so uncertain, hence Gold and Bitcoin getting their boosts recently.
It's my opinion that Bitcoin will continue to grow in price as investors scramble to keep their portfolios on an uptrend. The MA 50 and MA 100 crossing is a great signal and gives me confidence in a continuing uptrend.
Bitcoin is heading towards a new high.Bitcoin continues its upward trend, heading towards its highest peak ever, and a new peak is expected.
Bitcoin Breaks Heavy Resistance Zone— But Can It Hold?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) started to rise yesterday as the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) opened and it seems like it can break the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500 ) this time, but there are still concerns from a technical analysis , so please stay tuned for this analysis .
Bitcoin is moving near the Resistance zone($100,200-$97,700) and has broken through the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500) with good momentum .
In terms of Elliott wave theory , it seems that Bitcoin has completed microwave 3 near the Resistance zone($100,200-$97,700) and we should wait for the completion of microwave 4 . The microwave 4 can be considered a pullback to the Heavy Resistance zone($95,950-$88,500 ).
I expect Bitcoin to drop to at least $96,000 and is likely to touch the Support zone($95,760-$95,200) and start rising again, since microwave 3 was with high momentum , it is possible that microwave 5 will even be truncated . The targets I have indicated on the chart can be the target of a long position .
If you are looking for a Bitcoin reversal, you can focus on the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ) . The next major pivot will likely be within this time zone .
It seems reasonable to open a Long position near the Support zone($95,760-$95,200) , and it can give us a good Risk-To-Reward . What do you think?
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My concerns for Bitcoin's continued bullish trend:
Because Bitcoin's correlation with US stock market indices , especially the SPX500 , is higher than in previous weeks, my analysis is that there is a re-correction in the SPX500 index , which could prevent Bitcoin from continuing its upward trend .
The Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern is likely to complete, which could cause Bitcoin to fall further if the lower lines of this pattern are broken.
If tensions between Pakistan and India increase, it could prevent Bitcoin from growing further.
----------------------------------------------------
Also, Today, the Federal Funds Rate is scheduled to be announced.
Let’s take a look at how this decision — along with Powell’s speech — might impact Bitcoin . Be cautious with your positions during the announcement and Powell’s remarks, as markets may become volatile.
Holding the rate steady is a signal of monetary policy stability, which could give risk assets like Bitcoin some breathing room in the short term.
Given recent U.S. economic data, markets are mainly focused on Powell’s tone during the press conference. If he adopts a dovish stance (hinting at potential rate cuts), this could support Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
However, if Powell emphasizes that rates will remain elevated for an extended period, we might see a temporary wave of selling pressure in the market.
Stay alert and manage your risk wisely — high-impact events like this can lead to sharp moves in crypto.
----------------------------------------------------
Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage: $98,511-$97,774
Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $95,966-$95,550
Note: If Bitcoin falls below $94,400, we can expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTC/USDT Weekly Analysis – Bullish Momentum ContinuesBitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined ascending green channel that started in early 2023. After a healthy consolidation near the midline of the channel, the price broke out of a wedge pattern, confirming renewed bullish momentum.
As long as BTC remains inside this channel and above key support levels, the trend remains bullish. Based on Fibonacci extension levels, the upcoming targets are:
$130,000 (1.618 extension)
$171,000 (2.618 extension)
$226,000 (3.618 extension)
If Bitcoin breaks above the previous all-time high of $109,588, we could see a strong rally toward the $130K–$170K zone by Fall 2025.
Bearish scenario: A confirmed breakdown below the midline and $95K support could lead to a deeper correction.
BTC – Liquidity Sweep, Fair Value Gap Reactions & Potential LongMarket context and structure
This BTCUSDT 1-hour chart from BYBIT illustrates a methodical transition from a phase of consolidation to bullish expansion, guided by smart money principles. Price initially consolidates beneath a well-defined resistance level, with an Imbalance Fair Value Gap (IFVG) forming inside the range. This IFVG signals an inefficient zone where institutional players may be positioned. The eventual breakout above this range indicates a structural shift and the beginning of a directional move, setting the stage for further bullish development.
Break of structure and liquidity sweep
Following the breakout, BTC sweeps the buy-side liquidity resting above a prior swing high. This liquidity grab is a common maneuver in smart money trading, designed to trigger stop orders and breakout entries to facilitate larger institutional fills. The aggressive price movement results in the creation of several Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), which are regions where price moved with such momentum that no overlap between candles occurred. These FVGs are crucial areas of interest where future re-entries or continuations might originate.
Fair value gaps and demand zones
The chart highlights multiple FVGs formed during the bullish impulse. The uppermost FVG, located just below the most recent liquidity sweep, acts as a shallow retracement zone and has already been partially mitigated. A mid-range FVG extends further down, providing a secondary support layer within the current price structure. The largest and deepest FVG lies closer to the breakout origin and represents a significant unfilled demand zone. These FVGs help to outline institutional footprints, revealing where unfulfilled orders may still reside and where price might return to rebalance.
Re-entry strategy and projection
An ideal re-entry area is labeled “Entry at IFVG,” situated near the recently swept liquidity. The projection suggests that price may retrace slightly into this IFVG, consolidate, and then continue its upward trajectory. This anticipated movement reflects a bullish continuation pattern rooted in the idea of reaccumulation, where price revisits areas of imbalance before pushing higher. The visual path drawn on the chart captures this idea, showing a measured retracement followed by a continuation of the trend.
Interpretation and tactical bias
The overall structure and price behavior support a smart money-based bullish outlook. The clean break of structure, the successful sweep of liquidity, and the presence of multiple fair value gaps provide a foundation for continued upside potential. Price respecting these imbalance zones on pullbacks reinforces demand and highlights ongoing institutional involvement. This setup encourages a patient, context-aware approach to trading, focusing on inefficiencies, order flow, and the narrative of price rather than arbitrary indicators.
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-15 18:00 UTCBTC/USDT Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 15-minute (Binance Spot)
Composite Bias: 🟢 Bullish
Key Levels
Immediate Support: $103,450 (Previous swing low + ATR-based floor)
Secondary Support: $103,000 (Psychological level + oversold RSI recovery zone)
Resistance: $104,200 (Local high, MACD convergence point)
Breakout Target: $104,500 (Measured move from recent consolidation)
Technical Rationale
MACD Bearish Crossover (Signal line > MACD, histogram negative) suggests short-term pullback risk, but RSI at 59.9 (neutral) leaves room for recovery.
ATR at 156.89 reflects elevated volatility; often a precursor to directional moves.
Volume & Structure
Volume is below average during the latest uptick, raising concerns about rally sustainability (Quant Team flags this as a low-conviction move).
Price was rejected at $103,960 after an earlier RSI dip to 7.7, confirming aggressive dip-buying interest.
Macro Context
Despite the bearish MACD crossover, trend strength score at 0.23 suggests weak downside momentum.
Earlier extreme oversold RSI (<10) is often followed by sharp reversals in BTC.
Risk Advisory (Compliance Division)
False Breakout Risk: Low volume on upticks increases the chance of traps — confirm any breakout with ≥0.5x average volume.
Macro Sensitivity: Fed policy uncertainty remains a headwind; monitor correlations with equities.
Liquidity Gaps: Thin order books between $103,800–$104,200 may amplify volatility.
Actionable Insight
Entry: $103,500–$103,600 (retest of support confluence)
Stop-Loss: Below $103,300 (1.5x ATR buffer)
Take-Profit: Partial at $104,200 if volume confirms.
Emphasize asymmetric reward/risk if $103,000 holds, but await volume confirmation before high-conviction entry.
Fibonacci Extensions: Mapping Market Psychology Beyond the TrendHello, traders! 💫
Fibonacci numbers have traveled far from ancient Italian math to modern trading charts. In technical analysis, Fibonacci Extensions aren’t just mystical ratios; they’re a structured way to project potential price targets based on crowd psychology and trend continuation.
But what are they really, and why do so many traders draw those lines with near-religious fervor?
🧠 A Quick Historical Detour
Leonardo Fibonacci introduced the sequence to the West in the 13th century based on patterns he observed in Indian mathematics. The key idea is that each number in the sequence is the sum of the two before it: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...
When you divide specific numbers in the sequence, you get ratios that repeat throughout nature — and, intriguingly, financial markets. These include:
0.618 (the “golden ratio”)
1.618
2.618, and so on.
While Fibonacci Retracements look backward to gauge potential pullbacks, Fibonacci Extensions look forward to mapping possible continuation levels after a price move.
📊 Fibonacci Extensions
To use Fibonacci Extensions, you need three points:
The Start of a Trend (Point A)
The End of the Trend or Impulse Move (Point B)
A Retracement Low/High Where Price Bounces or Consolidates (Point C)
This ABC move applies Fibonacci ratios to project levels beyond point B, helping traders visualize where the price might go if the trend continues.
Common Extension Levels Include:
1.272
1.618 (golden ratio)
2.0
2.618
Each level acts as a kind of psychological milestone — not a guarantee, but a place where market participants may take profits, reassess, or react.
🔎 Let’s Take a Real Example: BTC/USDT Weekly
It's not that Fibonacci numbers have magical power. The theory is based on self-fulfilling behavior. When enough traders watch the same levels — and act on them — they can influence real outcomes.
The chart illustrates how Fibonacci retracement levels can be used to understand the depth and structure of a correction during a bullish cycle.
Low (~$4,783) in March 2020 (COVID-19 Сrash)
to the High (~$65,834) in November 2021 (Bull Market Peak)
From there, the price corrected throughout 2022–2023. Let’s look at what happened at each level — and what it tells us on the graph.
🔍 Why This Matters
Your retracement levels aren’t just lines — they mapped the psychology of the market:
Investors Testing Conviction at 0.5
Panic at 0.618
Capitulation Near 0.786 — but Without Full Breakdown
And Finally: A Rebound in 2023, Leading to New Highs in 2025
This kind of structure is textbook Fibonacci behavior — and is part of why retracement levels remain a core part of institutional technical analysis.
⚖️ Final Thought
Fibonacci Extensions are not about telling you where the price will go — they’re about framing where the price might go if the current trend keeps moving. It’s a lens through which to read market psychology, momentum, and expectation. Combined with volume, structure, and broader trend context, they potentially help analysts build a more nuanced market narrative.
And maybe Leonardo Fibonacci would have appreciated that his 800-year-old math is still trying to decode modern human emotion, just on candlestick charts.
BTC/USD: The Bull Run Isn’t Over yet! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has finally started rising as expected and has hit all our targets, breaking above $100,000. Bitcoin is currently trading around $103,000, and now we must wait to see if it gets rejected from this level. If there's no rejection and price breaks and holds above $110,000, we could expect higher targets around $130,000 and even $163,000 in the coming weeks. So far, this analysis has delivered over 39% return!
The Previous Analysis :
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Current range of BTCAfter BTC distributed over the weekend and turned immediately from distribution into reaccumulation there now could form a second accumulation model 1 or 2. I am looking for good confirmations below this current low for a possible long to the range high of the model. The technical price target for the reaccumulation model is the range high, but there also is supply at the top of the range, which got missed yesterday, so i would look out for that. If this does not work out i am looking for further deviations of the extreme points or simply a retest of a breakout/ breakdown of the range.
BTC decision time (16th-19th May)Its as simple as this. Fib Time Zone has accurately picked high, low, pause and now comes to a critical juncture. Could we finally be seeing the beginning of a bull run for all crypto assets or will we begin a bear market.
Note time until end is in 460 days from May.
My view
End of May, June, July heavy upside for crypto.
BTC up till $140-145k (may wick to 150k)
July, Aug - The whales party in Europe again and expect a 30-35% drop - potentially back to $100k.
Sept - Dec - Pumpamentals. Everyone is happy. Expect another 30% dump and a final blow out top (the one where you see thousands of posts on Instagram, X etc that they have their lambos.
If my thesis is correct, bull market ends March-June 2026.
BTC/USDT - Time Frame 15min📉 Current Market Overview:
Bitcoin price rejected from the resistance zone around 103,656 and is currently retracing within a short-term ascending channel. However, this upward move appears corrective, while the broader market structure remains bearish.
📊 Market Structure Breakdown:
Price has broken down from the ascending channel, signaling weakness from the buyers and potential beginning of a new bearish wave.
The first support zone has been breached, which may lead to further downside pressure.
🎯 Key Targets (TP Levels):
TP1: Demand zone between 102,150 – 102,000, aligned with the 0.705 Fibonacci level. This is a potential area for a short-term bounce.
TP2: Major support zone between 101,600 – 101,500, near the 1.0 Fibonacci level. If bearish momentum continues, this is a high-probability target.
📌 Expected Scenario:
After the channel breakdown, the price is likely to continue its downward trend toward the marked zones. Minor pullbacks are expected along the way, offering possible short re-entry opportunities.
⚠️ Invalidation Level:
If the price reclaims the broken channel and breaks above 103,200, the bearish outlook will be invalidated, and the market structure needs to be re-evaluated.
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BTCUSDBTC strategy is following fed style,we need to see direction and swing into direction.am seeing a retest into broken supply roof 99k-100 as demand . or will price keep buying high to test 107 ?? and break could seeing more buying into 117k and 116k will be watched based on structure and character
Skeptic | BTC Breaks $100K: Is the Uptrend Just Getting Started?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! Bitcoin’s finally back above $ 100K , but will this rally keep charging forward? 😊 In this idea, we’re diving into Bitcoin across multiple timeframes , hunting for spot and futures triggers, and wrapping up with a look at BTC dominance. Let’s kick things off with the Weekly Timeframe. 📊
Weekly Timeframe: The Big Picture
As I’ve mentioned in previous episodes, the major trend is still a solid uptrend. Why? Per Dow Theory, we’re consistently making higher highs and higher lows. Plus, volume backs this up—rallies come with heavy volume, while corrections see lighter volume. Corrections haven’t even touched the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, which all points to the uptrend staying strong. Honestly, I’m not selling my spot holdings right now—this trend’s too good! Let’s zoom into the Daily Timeframe for spot triggers.
Daily Timeframe: Spot Triggers
Our previous spot trigger was a buy above $ 88,500 , and since it activated, it’s delivered about 18% profit so far—nice! A quick note: if your capital or risk management is too aggressive, please scale back to stay in profit. If you hit a stop loss, risk no more than 2-3% of your total capital—no more. Now, let’s analyze the chart. Over the past four weeks, we’ve kicked off a solid uptrend, and the corrections feel healthy. Volume’s increasing, showing the trend’s got power. After hitting resistance at $ 105,000 , it looks like we’re gearing up for a correction after a three-wave uptrend. Keep this in mind: $ 107,000 is a major resistance and could be a great spot trigger. If we break $ 107,000 , go long with a stop loss below $88,000, risking max 3%. That’s a solid setup. Let’s move to the 4-Hour Timeframe.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
Our previous long trigger at $85,850 was a banger—if you watched the video and went long with 10x leverage, you’re up about 200% . Congrats if you caught it! 🙌 Moving forward, I’ll share some new long and short triggers that could be useful. For a long setup, we need to see a reaction at $ 105,000 again, then break that resistance to open a long. But keep your risk low because we’ve got a major resistance at $ 107,000 looming, and the odds of getting stopped out are higher. I’m saying this now so you don’t complain later! In these conditions, don’t obsess over confirmations from indicators like RSI. Movements are sharp, and by the time you wait for a confirmation, the price has already moved. Stick to your main triggers to open positions. For short setups, I’ve got nothing right now. We’re in a strong bullish trend without even a hint of weakness, so I see no reason to go short. Let any sharp pullback pass first, then we can open shorts with confidence if bearish momentum kicks in. Don’t open shorts against the trend just for a 1% chance of a crash. Patience, patience, patience—that’s the key to success in financial markets. The market’s always been here and always will be, so don’t FOMO or trade against your strategy. Let’s talk BTC.D next, but first, if this has been helpful, I’d appreciate a like and a subscribe—it means a lot! 😊
BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
Let’s get a big-picture view of BTC.D—Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap. If this ratio is in an uptrend, liquidity is flowing from altcoins into Bitcoin. If it’s downtrending, it’s moving from Bitcoin to altcoins. Right now, we’re above an uptrend line, so it’s better to go long on BTC since it’s growing faster than most alts. But if the trendline breaks and we drop below 60.27, we can assume an altseason is starting, and that’s when we pivot to buying altcoins. On the daily, BTC.D has been rising nicely, and while some altcoins are starting to wake up, there’s no trend reversal yet. If you check BTC pairs, you’ll notice altcoins are still performing weakly compared to BTC. So, if you’re holding altcoins, it’s better to wait for a clear trend change in BTC.D before buying—that’s the logical move. If you have questions about the analysis or want me to analyze a specific altcoin or symbol, drop it in the comments. BTW, I’m Skeptic! 😄
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If this analysis helped you out, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll get to it. Thanks for hanging out, and I’ll see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin is currently testing a major resistance zone between $98,000 and $100,000, which also aligns with the 0.707 Fibonacci retracement. This area has previously acted as a strong supply zone, raising the possibility of a short-term rejection.
Scenario 1 – Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks and closes above $100,000, we could see a strong continuation toward $106,000 → $112,000, driven by momentum and possible FOMO.
Scenario 2 – Deeper Pullback Before Continuation:
If Bitcoin gets rejected at resistance, a retest of the lower support zone (previous demand area) may follow.
A successful bounce from that support could reignite bullish momentum in the medium term.
Trading Strategy:
Wait for a confirmed breakout and candle close above $100K for a high-conviction long entry.
Alternatively, look for buy setups on a pullback toward the support zone for a better risk-reward entry.
How are you planning to trade this setup? Breakout or dip-buy? Share your strategy below! 👇
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