BTCUST trade ideas
BITCOIN I Weekly CLS, KL OB,Model 1 I Target 50% of CLSAs investor Im longterm bullish , but from the trader perspective my system says short.
Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
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Potential Breakout Opportunity for BTC/USDT Potential Breakout Opportunity for BTC/USDT
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing interesting price action on the 15-minute timeframe. After a period of consolidation, the price appears to be testing a key resistance level around $103,700. We can observe a series of higher lows forming, suggesting increasing bullish pressure. A decisive break above this resistance, confirmed by strong volume, could signal the start of an upward move towards the $104,300-$104,500 area, as indicated by the blue arrow.
Traders might look for entry opportunities on a confirmed breakout above the resistance, with potential stop-loss levels placed below the recent swing lows (e.g., around $103,150) to manage risk. This analysis focuses on short-term price action and potential breakout scenarios. Remember to conduct your own thorough research and consider broader market conditions before making any trading decisions.
Key Observations:
* Resistance Level: $103,700 area acting as a significant hurdle.
* Higher Lows: Suggesting increasing buying interest.
* Potential Target: $104,300 - $104,500 zone if the breakout is successful.
* Risk Management: Important to define stop-loss levels.
This description avoids overly aggressive or promotional language and focuses on technical analysis observations, which is generally well-received on platforms like TradingView.
BTC HOLDING LEVELSDear friends,
I want to analyze and discuss Bitcoin's future movements without any unnecessary chatter. Looking back at my previous analysis of BTC, I mentioned that I was waiting for lower prices to buy Bitcoin, and it seems we are at the beginning of the correction waves I was anticipating.
I have identified three price levels where I plan to invest. It may take days or weeks to reach these levels, but once they do, I will buy Bitcoin and wait for it to reach $135,000 or even higher.
I expect the price to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching $70,000 or lower. I plan to make my purchases at $80,000, $75,000, and if the price hits $67,000, I will invest my full budget. My first target is $135,000, which I believe could be achieved in the coming months or years.
IMPORTANT: I will sell my holdings if the price continues to drop to $54,000. This could lead to significant issues for Bitcoin and its holders, so if that happens, I will exit my position and wait for new upward momentum.
"IT'S JUST GOOD BUSINESS"
Bitcoin vs. Saylor: The Power and Danger of fanatical promotionToday I want to talk about Michael Saylor and his influence on many crypto minds and, to some extent, the movement of Bitcoin’s price.
It’s very important to understand who we’re listening to, who we’re following, and whether this person has hidden motives we don’t see due to lack of information or unwillingness to get it — due to our stubborn desire to see only what confirms our own fantasies and thoughts and serves our expectations.
Let’s turn on our reason and objectivity and face the facts.
Michael Saylor is a well-known figure in the crypto world. He promotes the idea of eternal Bitcoin growth and actively buys it to support his words. When the price drops, he even suggests his readers sell their organs, which, to me, is too much.
Let’s move to the facts — everything is Googleable, and promptable.
Facts:
📈 Hype of 2000
In 2000, he rode the dot-com hype with his company MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy was promoted as a pioneer in business analytics and data management software, and he saw himself solely as a visionary of the new economy.
The boom was sky-high — just read about the dot-com era. Stocks of new tech companies were soaring, and it was enough to say “software” and “I see the future.”
In 1998, MicroStrategy successfully held an IPO. In 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom, the company’s stock reached an incredible $333 per share in March.
He skillfully used the hype, and here was his 2000 narrative:
Digital transformation: Saylor claimed the world was entering a new era where data would become the main asset of companies, and MicroStrategy — the key tool for processing and analyzing it.
Unlimited growth: In the dot-com era, Saylor pushed the idea that tech companies like MicroStrategy would grow exponentially, ignoring traditional financial constraints.
The future is now: Saylor created the feeling that MicroStrategy wasn’t just following trends but shaping them, offering solutions that would define the future of business.
At the same time, he was building a cult around himself, cultivating the image of a genius entrepreneur.
⚠️ Financial reporting scandal
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into MicroStrategy. The company overstated revenues, which led to a stock crash (from $333 to $86 in one day) and a loss of investor trust. The stock kept falling and dropped to $0.4 (–100%!).
The SEC filed charges against Michael Saylor personally (CEO), as well as CFO Mark Lynch and the chief accountant. They were accused of intentionally misrepresenting financials to keep stock prices high.
SEC investigation results:
In December 2000, the SEC concluded the investigation, and MicroStrategy agreed to settle without admitting guilt:
* The company paid a $10M fine.
* Saylor, Lynch, and other executives paid personal fines.
* Saylor agreed to pay $8.28M in “disgorgement” (unjust enrichment) and a $350K fine — a total of about $8.63M.
* MicroStrategy committed to revising its reporting and implementing stricter internal controls.
In addition to the SEC settlement ($11M from leadership, including $8.63M from Saylor), MicroStrategy faced shareholder class-action lawsuits, which were settled for $10M.
No executives were criminally charged, but the company’s and Saylor’s reputations suffered greatly.
In other words, Michael didn’t have any moral hesitation about faking company profits during losses. But investors and journalists started asking questions — and the SEC came knocking.
Let’s call it what it is: Saylor committed fraud, using hype, promising endless growth, and creating a cult around himself as a “financial genius and visionary.”
Michael went quiet, and the media tone shifted quickly — from super-visionary to one of the biggest losers and scammers.
To give him credit, he managed to keep the company alive and kept a low profile until 2020, like a mouse. 20 years — a generation change and a new hype cycle.
And what does a tech visionary do? Of course — jump into the new wave. A chance to restore his image — probably more important to him than money.
🟠 Bitcoin Era, 2020
Before 2020, Saylor was a Bitcoin skeptic. In 2013, he even tweeted that “Bitcoin’s days are numbered” and compared it to gambling.
But in 2020, he changed his position after deeply studying crypto. His mission: to protect capital and restore his image as a prophet — and he decided to buy Bitcoin.
But his own money seemed insufficient, so he turned to borrowing.
Here’s how the scheme works:
1.MicroStrategy issues stocks and bonds
📈 They sell new MSTR shares → get cash.
💵 They issue bonds (debt papers) → investors give them money at interest.
2. They use that money to buy Bitcoin
🟧 All the raised funds go into BTC purchases.
They don’t sell. Just hold. Never lock in profit.
3. If BTC rises → MSTR stock price rises
MSTR becomes a kind of "BTC ETF."
📊 BTC growth = MicroStrategy’s market cap growth.
🔁 Then they repeat the cycle.
Stock price up → issue more shares/bonds → buy more BTC → repeat.
📌 The catch:
They use other people’s money (debt) to buy BTC.
They sell almost nothing.
They bet BTC will grow faster than interest on the debt.
So as long as the price goes up — everything is fine.
Let’s admit: his fanaticism, aggressive marketing, and bold statements have helped Bitcoin.
But the main question: will the inevitable market correction wipe out this belief in endless growth?
🔍 His personality
It’s crucial for us as traders and investors to understand who really runs the company or project. The personal traits of leaders are useful information that gives us insight and a behavioral map.
We need to research not only products and financials, but also the psychological types of those making the decisions.
Saylor’s aggressive marketing and loud statements are part of his personality.
He fed off the hype around his persona more than any growing bank balance.
And there’s nothing wrong with that — until you start deceiving people to keep attention on yourself.
For example, in the 2000s, *Forbes* noted that Saylor “sold the dream” of a new economy where traditional profit metrics didn’t matter.
It attracted investors — but didn’t reflect reality. Forbes hinted that his desire to maintain the genius image may have led to accounting manipulation.
Saylor created an "expectations bubble" that burst.
His desire to prove he’s a genius led to a disconnection from reality.
He often talks about himself as a genius and visionary (sounds like a grandiose ego).
He positions himself as the savior of capital through BTC (messiah complex).
He publicly mocks “weak hands” and traditional investors (shows superiority).
He never admits mistakes, even after losing billions (denial and overconfidence).
He repeats his ideas again and again (manic fixation on being right).
His speech is like a manifesto, not a dialogue. He doesn’t converse — he proclaims.
I don’t sense greed in him. I sense emptiness that demands a cult.
He doesn’t live for money — he is obsessed with the idea.
And that’s the problem — there’s no objectivity here. It feels more like revenge after the humiliation and downfall of 20 years ago.
He’s smart — no doubt. But it’s not just intelligence. It’s cold messianism.
Obsession, not passion.
Psychotype: Grand strategist with a humiliation trauma
Trait Behavior
Narcissistic core “I’m special, my vision is above all.”
Obsession with greatness “I must be the truth, not just be right.”
Hyper-rationality “I survive through logic, not feelings.”
Psychological armor “I won’t show weakness. If I break, I disappear.”
Fanatical visionary “My idea is supreme. I don’t need to be humble.”
💸 More facts:
In 2024, Michael paid a FWB:40M fine for tax evasion.
The accusation:
He didn’t pay income tax in D.C., while actively living there — yachts, property, planes, frequent visits.
His tax returns didn’t reflect reality, and the investigation used GPS, Instagram, flight data, banking, and other digital traces.
Saylor didn’t admit guilt but agreed to settle for around $40M.
His personal wealth is mostly in MicroStrategy shares (9.9% or ~$8.74B by end of 2024).
Theoretically, he can sell them — but he must file a report within two days.
Current status:
MicroStrategy owns 555,450 BTC
Average purchase price: ~$68,550
Total purchase cost: ~$38.08B
Unrealized profit: ~$14.7B
And remember — Saylor’s slogan: Forever HODL.
📉 But the key point:
The company’s current debt is $7.24B.
All is good — as long as the price rises.
Analysts estimate BTC would have to fall to ~$20K before MSTR is forced to liquidate.
But if BTC nears the break-even zone, fear might hit shareholders first — triggering stock sell-offs.
If MSTR shares fall — which is likely during a BTC crash — bondholders, especially those with convertible bonds (which make up most of the debt), might demand repayment.
That could force Saylor to sell BTC.
Because in a crypto winter, buyers for MSTR stock or bonds may disappear.
So BTC could fall — not because of actual sales, but from fear of those sales.
This is my main concern with Saylor’s oversized influence on the market.
🐍 A bit of “reptilian” theory
What if BlackRock *planned* to use Saylor’s hands to push Bitcoin and concentrate large amounts in one basket — then take it from him?
Among the main bondholders are big institutions:
* Allianz Global Investors
* Voya Investment Management
* Calamos Investments
* State Street
These bonds are usually unsecured and non-convertible, making them attractive to investors who want Bitcoin exposure without direct ownership.
In case of default, bondholders have priority over the company’s assets — including BTC reserves.
🏛 State Street Corporation
Public company traded on NYSE.
Its biggest shareholders: Vanguard Group and BlackRock .
If so — they could end up holding as much BTC as Satoshi.
BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~500K BTC.
MicroStrategy holds ~500K BTC.
🤔 Questions to reflect on:
* Is industry leader fanaticism good for the development of crypto?
* What is Michael Saylor really doing? Avenging the past? Or truly in love with the technology?
* What risks does a whale with media influence and fanaticism and pockets full of Bitcoin and debt pose to the market?
Waiting for your thoughts in the comments, dear traders! Hugs! 🤗
BITCOIN READY FOR 108K AND 113K.BTC HAS STARTED ITS UPWARD MOVE AND HIGHER CHANCES OF HITTING 108K AND 113K.
THIS can be a good chance to buy Btc.
1- Use stop.
2-Break even at 1 ratio 1 or half stoploss least.
3-Dont give market all profit nor book all profit put some at breakeven and let trade move.
4-If h4 fvg didnt work then wait for whole fvg to be filled and long again when filled.
Good luck guys.
#BTCUSDT:Price Moving Well From $88,000 to $96,000,Next $128,000Bitcoin has moved well from our last idea of $88,000 to $96,000. However, a small correction is expected, which could be a good point to enter a swing trade. This could take the price to a new record high of around $128,000.
We have three targets, but each can be set based on your overview. The last three candles are not clear, so it’s best to wait for price to have a clearer indication of its next move.
We wish you the best and good luck in your trading journey. Thank you for your unwavering support! 😊
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Bitcoin's Blueprint: Channel Breakout Sets Stage for $104K Push
Looking at the Bitcoin/TetherUS 1D chart from May 6, 2025, we're witnessing a critical technical setup that suggests significant upside potential.
The price is currently at $94,758 , having established a solid foundation after the April recovery. This technical analysis reveals a powerful bullish scenario developing:
Master Pattern: Ascending Channel Continuation
Bitcoin has formed a textbook ascending channel (yellow boundaries) since the February-April bottoming pattern. After testing the lower boundary in April at approximately $74,508, price has rebounded sharply and is now consolidating in a rectangular accumulation zone (purple box).
Key Technical Elements:
- Diagonal Support Break : Price has successfully broken above the descending trendline (gray) that had capped gains since early 2025
- Channel Position : Currently trading in the lower half of the ascending channel, suggesting significant upside room
- Volume Confirmation : The 10.61K volume with positive price action (+0.03%) indicates healthy accumulation
Projected Movement Pattern
The blue arrows map out the anticipated price movement:
1. Current consolidation within the purple box (accumulation phase)
2. Initial thrust to upper channel boundary (~$100K)
3. Minor pullback to establish higher support
4. Final push toward the target of $104k
Strategic Insight: "The Channel Magnet Effect"
Bitcoin's price action demonstrates the magnetic pull of the upper channel boundary after confirmed breaks of diagonal resistance. The purple consolidation zone serves as the launchpad for this measured move.
This pattern is particularly significant as it mirrors Bitcoin's historical tendency to build momentum through rectangular consolidations before channel expansions.
Traders should watch for a convincing break above $98,000 as confirmation of this bullish scenario, with potential for acceleration once psychological resistance at $100,000 is breached.
For risk management, the lower boundary of the purple box provides a clear invalidation point for this bullish thesis.
Trading the Impulse Rally Retracement — Price and Time Symmetry Here we have my STOP LOSS TRIANGLE on our beautiful Bitcoin — if you’re not quite sure what I mean or am doing drop me a follow here and check out a few post! Or come find me on X —
The beauty of this concept is the ability to trade with rules the potential retracement in price/time symmetry distinctively and without emotion, as the underlying trades to potential harmonic reversals.
Bitcoin (BTC): We Will Re-Test ATHs | Crazy VolatilityCrazy movement is happening in the markets recently, where we are once again seeing markets being driven by news and enthusiastic bullish movement.
As we mentioned yesterday, if we see a break of the liquidity zone near $99K, we will be retesting ATH most likely, and this is our view as of now. FOMO on the markets will lead the price to upper zones where, once back at ATH, we will be looking for MSB.
Of course, if we see strong dominance by buyers near the ATH, then $140K might be the next target, but nothing is confirmed yet; it is just a thought.
Swallow Academy
Will Bitcoin Break This Resistance ?BITCOIN is once again at a critical resistance level, and the crypto world is split.
Some believe we’re gearing up for a new all-time high (ATH), while others argue the top is already in—and this could be a classic bull trap in disguise.
The key lies in how price reacts to this zone.
• A breakout above $109K would confirm a new ATH and likely spark another leg up.
• But a strong rejection here might signal that the rally was a trap, echoing patterns we’ve seen in past cycles.
My Take: We’re at a make-or-break moment. Confirmation from this level will decide the next big move.
What’s your take—breakout or bull trap?
BTC Technical Market Update! $110,000?Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Market Update
Over the past several trading sessions, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a pattern of strength, particularly visible on the 4-hour chart. Price action has consistently respected the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones on this timeframe, taking support from these areas without breaching any significant downside levels. This repeated behavior indicates a strong underlying bullish sentiment, suggesting that market participants are actively defending key support zones.
Furthermore, Bitcoin recently approached a high-liquidity resistance zone—a level that historically acts as a supply barrier—and not only absorbed the liquidity but also decisively broke through it. This move implies that bullish momentum is firmly in control, and short-term resistance levels are being invalidated one after another. The market structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the current trend.
As of now, BTC has just bounced from a 4H FVG and is trading above that support. However, a short-term pullback remains possible. If such a retracement occurs, it is expected to revisit the next significant 4H FVG support zone, which lies approximately between $98,800 and $97,400. This area could act as a strong accumulation zone for buyers, potentially fueling another bullish wave. In the case of renewed upward momentum from this level, Bitcoin could target the $101,000 to $105,000 range in the short to mid-term.
Market participants are advised to remain cautious and observe price behavior as it unfolds in the coming days. Technical setups are aligning in favor of the bulls, but volatility may increase near key resistance and support levels. Always base your trades and investment decisions on thorough analysis, and keep in mind that no setup guarantees results.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please ensure you conduct your own independent research and analysis (DYOR) before making any trading or investment decisions.
Bitcoin resilience and momentum toward new highs?Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience in recent days, with price action maintaining a strong upward trajectory that suggests the potential for a move toward new all-time highs. This bullish momentum has persisted despite key resistance levels, signaling continued market strength.
Key Points to Consider:
- Bullish Market Structure**: The broader market continues to exhibit a bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This reinforces the ongoing uptrend and suggests that market participants remain optimistic.
- Key Highs Remain Intact**: Previous significant highs have not been breached to the downside, preserving the integrity of the bullish trend. This structural consistency indicates a healthy and sustainable rally.
- $104,300 – Major High Timeframe Resistance**: This level represents the last major resistance on the higher timeframes. A decisive break and close above this point would likely confirm a bullish continuation and open the door for price discovery beyond historical highs.
If buyers can sustain this momentum, the likelihood of a bullish expansion significantly increases. Importantly, there have been no clear signs of weakness — such as strong rejections or bearish reversal patterns — suggesting that market confidence remains robust.
Price action has consistently displayed strength, even at historically significant resistance zones. The absence of notable rejection at these levels is particularly telling, as it reflects strong demand and buying pressure. Such behavior often precedes continuation moves, provided volume supports the breakout.
A true corrective move or market pullback is likely to occur only after a **climactic volume node**, where excessive buying activity may lead to short-term exhaustion. Until then, the current trend appears well-supported by bullish sentiment.
However, **vigilance is crucial**. Once a correction does materialize — which is inevitable in any trending market — it may present a valuable "buy the dip" opportunity. During such phases, identifying and monitoring **key support zones** becomes critical to assessing the health of the trend and spotting optimal re-entry points.
Outlook:
For now, the momentum remains bullish, and higher prices are likely in the immediate short term. The market structure, strength at resistance, and absence of bearish signals all point toward the potential for further upside. Still, staying prepared for a correction and having a clear strategy for when it arrives will be essential for capitalizing on the next phase of the market cycle.
Bitcoin on the road to $105k and beyond...So Bitcoin has finally flipped from bearish in April to bullish in May 25.
As per Elliott Wave theory, it has been printing a clear Wave 1 from the bottom below (aprox. @$74.500).
At the time of this post, btc is @ the impressive price of $102.289.
I has clearly made a subwave 1, 2, 3, 4 and its on its way of finishing up subwave 5.
Thing is... this looks as a non stop movement for the time being.
That´s how BULLISH everyone hast turned.
My projection is that the whole swing should finally end somewhere between $104.600 - $105.300 (even if it could push a bit higher, such as $106.200 or so). Yes, it could go even further and then $107k, 109 and 110 would be open. But it seems fare reaching.
I rather stick to the former:
Wave 1 would end at around $104.600 - $105.300, and Wave 2 correction could take us somewhere between $93.500 and $88.750 (give or take).
It´s game! Let´s see how this finally plays out...
Bias: BULLISH
Bitcoin Breaks Out – Is $106K the Next Big Target?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has recently broken higher within an ascending channel, indicating a strong bullish trend. The price continues to respect the channel's structure, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows — a classic sign of trend continuation.
The breakout suggests the potential for a move toward the $106,000 level, provided current support levels hold. Traders are advised to watch for confirmation signals such as bullish candlesticks, bounce from support zones, and increasing volume to consider long positions.
This setup reflects growing momentum and market optimism, positioning Bitcoin for a possible extended rally.
Bitcoin's 100K Resistance Breaks Down, New ATH May '25 +AltcoinsIt only took a few days and the final barrier for a new All-Time High is now broken. Bitcoin is set to hit a new All-Time High now, in May 2025 to later continue growing; month after month after month, long-term. This is only the start.
Bitcoin challenging and breaking $100,000 easily with a full green candle is the most important bullish signal we can find. The indicators and candles are great of course, don't get me wrong, but nothing is more important than the actual price, and prices have been growing for more than a month.
— Altcoins Market Update
Most of the Altcoins market is still trading at bottom and this is only as good as it gets. Trading at bottom prices means that these Altcoins will produce massive growth in the coming weeks and days; straight up for sure, the bullish bias is confirmed.
As Bitcoin hits $100,000 and moves beyond, the entire Altcoins market is set to follow.
As Bitcoin approaches a new All-Time High in a matter of days, the Altcoins will be growing between 100, 200 and even 300% in the coming days. Think about it, 200-300% up this very same month. This is an amazing opportunity, an opportunity that you should grab; buy and hold.
Feel free to make your analysis request by leaving a comment on the Top Altcoins Choice —Your Pick trade-idea, it is live today.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
It is truly appreciated.
We win again.
Namaste.
#BTCUSDT SELL NOW The chart you provided shows a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) on the 45-minute timeframe. Here's a quick breakdown:
Resistance Zone (Yellow Box at Top): Around $103,800–$104,000, showing where price previously got rejected.
Support Zone (Yellow Box at Bottom): Around $101,900, marked as a potential target.
Bearish Momentum: The blue arrow and recent red candles suggest a bearish move is expected.
Entry/Stop/Target Zones:
Entry: Around current level ($103,138).
Stop Loss: Near $103,821 (just above resistance).
Target: Around $101,900.
This indicates a short (sell) setup with a risk-to-reward ratio favoring the downside.
Do you want help identifying a potential entry signal or confirmation before taking action?
BTC at Key Breakout Zone – Next Move Critical!
Bitcoin has entered a major resistance zone near $103,400. A confirmed breakout above this area could open the path toward $120,000. However, if bulls fail to hold, a retest of the $96,000 support is likely. Price action in the next few candles will be crucial – stay alert for either a breakout continuation or a rejection setup.