BTCUSDT – Absorption in progress...📊 BTCUSDT – Absorption in progress, swing high targeted before a potential dump?
Price is moving in a clean bullish structure with a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS),
but under the surface, we can clearly see signs of absorption, which could signal an upcoming reversal.
📈 Open Interest is rising sharply
🟢 CVD Futures & Spot are both rising → real buying pressure
🔴 Funding remains negative
📊 85% of open positions are longs
🐋 Top traders are massively short
🧱 ➤ Clear absorption: price goes up… but someone is selling into it hard
🎯 Current hypothesis:
🧠 Longs are being absorbed,
suggesting a short-term rejection is likely,
but before that, price might push higher toward the swing high (92.5–93.5k) to:
Hunt liquidity
Trigger stop losses
Finalize the short trap
📌 Trade plan:
✅ Spike above the swing high
✅ Final absorption / wick trap
✅ Dump back into the Reload Zone (FIB 61.8–78.6%)
❗ Rule: don’t front-run – wait for confirmation:
Sharp rejection after the spike
Spot CVD divergence
Loss of structure + drop in OI
⚖️ The market is tense.
We are likely between the top of absorption… and the beginning of the flush.
Stay patient. Watch closely. Only act on clear confirmation.
🔽Fr🔽
📊 BTCUSDT – Absorption en cours
Le prix évolue dans une structure haussière propre avec un Break of Structure (BOS) validé,
mais les dessous du marché révèlent une absorption nette, qui pourrait annoncer un retournement.
📈 Open Interest en forte hausse
🟢 CVD Futures & Spot haussiers → pression acheteuse réelle
🔴 Funding négatif persistant
📊 85 % de longues sur le marché (Kingfisher)
🐋 Top traders en short massif
🧱 ➤ Absorption claire : le prix monte… mais la contrepartie absorbe tout
🎯 Hypothèse actuelle :
🧠 Une absorption des longs est en cours,
ce qui laisse penser qu’un rejet est probable à court terme,
mais avant cela, le marché pourrait encore pousser vers le swing high (92.5–93.5k) pour :
Chercher la liquidité
Déclencher les stops vendeurs
Finir le short trap
📌 Plan envisagé :
✅ Spike au-dessus du swing high
✅ Absorption finale / mèche piégeuse
✅ Dump en direction de la Reload Zone (FIB 61.8–78.6 %)
❗ Règle : ne pas anticiper – attendre confirmation :
Rejet brutal après le spike
Divergence CVD Spot
Perte de structure + chute OI
⚖️ Le marché est tendu.
On est probablement entre le haut de l’absorption… et le début de la purge.
Rester patient. Observer. Agir sur signal propre.
BTCUST trade ideas
BTCUSDT KEY LEVELS FOR 22 AND 23/04/2025// All credit goes to Tony for the concept of this indicator. His Trading View link: tradingview.com/u/tony_fx_sm/
// Note: The calculation method in this indicator differs from Tony's, but the concept is derived from his work.
I want to make it clear that I am not a seller, and this method was not taught to me by anyone. The original creator only gave me one clue:
👉 "If you get one level, you get all levels."
Everything else—the way I nail it the method and applied it—is my own work. I respect the original idea, but my approach is independent.
Explanation:
This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits.
Entry/Exit Points:
- Entry/Exit Lines: Use the BLACK line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan.
- Stop Loss: For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the BLACK line above.
- Take Profit: For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next BLACK line below.
Timeframe:
Use a 15 mins timeframe for trading.
Risk Disclaimer:
This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details
Are Stocks and Bitcoin Finally Decoupling? Watch Out for 91kBitcoin is nearing the key 91,000 level. Following the breakout from the trend channel, Bitcoin has been moving as expected, approaching this important zone. The 91k level previously acted as a major support and held through multiple declines for months. Given its historical significance, there is a strong possibility that it will now act as resistance.
However, it may not serve as a perfect “bullseye” resistance level. That would be too predictable. Traders should be alert for potential traps around 1,000 to 2,000 points above or below this zone.
In the medium term, all downward moves are now might be considered buying opportunities following the end of the previous trend channel. The market’s focus will now shift to whether a new bullish trend will establish itself.
If Bitcoin sees a clear rejection at or near 91k, it could provide a second chance for bulls who missed the breakout. However, there is one key factor that will determine Bitcoin’s next major move:
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have shown a strong positive correlation over the past few years. This connection has often weighed on Bitcoin during periods of stock market weakness, especially with all the recent negative news surrounding equities.
However, the price action since April 16 suggests a potential shift. Bitcoin appears to be moving in a different direction from the S&P 500. If this is the beginning of a decoupling, it could be a positive sign for Bitcoin, especially with ongoing tariff pressures likely to continue weighing on the stock market.
For additional context, be sure to check out our earlier posts on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin:
Bitcoin 15-Minute Chart – Projected Target PriceCurrently, the trend appears to be upward.
If the bullish trend continues, the price is expected to rise toward approximately 90,452.
On the other hand, if it declines, a drop toward around 83,808 is expected.
However, considering the current time of day, the market seems to be losing some momentum, so it's more reasonable to expect a short-term uptrend or sideways movement for now.
BITCOIN EXHAUSTIONPrice broke structure (BOS) after forming a higher low at support, triggering a strong bullish rally into premium zones. Multiple targets were met before showing signs of exhaustion near resistance. Current zone could attract profit-taking or a pullback unless buyers reclaim momentum with volume confirmation. Sentiment remains bullish across timeframes—watch for continuation or reversal cues.
Bullish continuation for BitcoinBitcoin is looking at a larger bullish continuation after breaking above the falling wedge and with bullish divergence observed from the mid-term stochastic oscillator and 23-period RSI. Ichimoku is showing two out of three bullish crossover and a V-shaped bottom formation is underway and may break 89,000-90,000 resistance level. Should it break, near-term target is at 96,700, followed by 115,000.
BTC short term Wave countAnalyzing a Bitcoin (BTC) form Wyckoff schema in a 4H chart.
We can’t determine if it’s an accumulation or distribution yet. Based on MACD and Elliott Wave Theory, I believe the chart will follow a similar pattern. However, time will determine the outcome. If BTC declines and accumulates within a shorter time frame of Elliot support levels, it could be a long trade opportunity.
(This analysis is not financial advice. Your actions are solely your responsibility.)
BTC Weekly Analysis (1W)First and foremost, keep in mind that this is a weekly analysis, and along the way, Bitcoin may experience upward bounces from daily or hourly support levels.
From the point where we placed the green arrow on the chart, Bitcoin started forming a diametric pattern, and with the recent drop, the bullish scenario has strengthened, canceling Bitcoin’s previous triangle formation.
The price has now entered wave F. The green zone is where wave F could potentially complete.
June is the month when this corrective wave (wave F) is expected to end.
Wave G is a bullish wave, and its target could be the red zone.
A weekly candle close below the invalidation level will invalidate this outlook and analysis
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect B🌍 Bitcoin Analysis: Macro Tailwinds + Tape Reading = The Perfect Bulltrap (or a Historic Breakout)
Published by: Pôncio Pacífico — The Portuguese God of Derivatives
⚡ Macro Context: Global Instability Is Pushing Bitcoin Up (For Now)
In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has surged nearly 3%, hitting $87,500. This happened while:
The U.S. dollar weakened amid political instability (Trump challenging the Fed's authority)
Gold hit a new all-time high above $3,370/oz
Global equity markets corrected and bond yields declined
🔎 Sources: Bloomberg & Reuters
Bitcoin is behaving like a risk-off asset. Bullish at first glance, but the tape tells a more sinister story...
🕵️ On-Chain & Order Flow Analysis (last 5 days)
Delta: Negative delta candles with price still rising → classic short squeeze behavior
Open Interest: Increased during the pump, then flattened → sign of trapped FOMO longs
Volume: Strong at the beginning of the move, now fading while price still climbs → exhaustion?
Conclusion: we’re seeing short liquidations + late long entries = DANGER ZONE.
📊 Institutional Trading Scenarios (Macro + Tape Reading)
🚑 SCENARIO A: Bulltrap in Progress (most likely)
Short entry: $87,850–$88,000
Stop loss: $88,200
Target 1: $87,100
Target 2: $86,200
Trigger: Weak volume + flat delta + rising OI (FOMO)
🌪 SCENARIO B: Controlled Pullback, Institutional Re-entry
Long entry: $86,300
Stop: $85,800
Target 1: $87,500
Target 2: $88,800
Trigger: Volume spike + positive delta + stable OI
⚡ SCENARIO C: Authentic Breakout
Entry: $88,100
Stop: $87,600
Target: $89,800–90,000
Trigger: Aggressive delta + visible liquidations + strong volume breakout
💭 Final Pôncio Proclamation
"Macro says buy. Tape says wait. Combine both and you realize: whoever buys now without a plan... is paying for the market makers' champagne brunch."
Share this if you don’t want your gym buddy to long the top again.
#BTC #Futures #TapeReading #CryptoAnalysis #MacroTrading #InstitutionalTools #VolumeProfile #OpenInterest #ShortSqueeze
Are you making this common mistake?There’s a huge mistake nearly everyone in crypto makes that kills their portfolio after one cycle.
Read this to make sure you are not doing it!
Most crypto investors take huge risks without realizing it, and you probably are too.
They chase random altcoins and think that if they pump, they'll break even on all their other losses or get rich!
This often leads them through a cycle of despair, which makes them give up after a few big losses.
Instead, crypto investors should focus on CRYPTOCAP:BTC for the majority of a cycle and only concentrate on strong altcoins that show resilience during CRYPTOCAP:BTC sell-offs as we approach alt season.
Then, they should track their portfolio like a pro to monitor their performance and change things where necessary.
If you are not currently doing this, but would like to begin, then message me to see how I can help you @CryptoJayTrades
BTC - A fake out ?
-Green rising Channel broke 2 days ago and get retested. That retest was same previous highs too. Green rising channel was given 3 days ago (look at image 1 below).
Price is hovering above lower line of green channel and upper TL of blue channel and hVn.
There are some divergences in Volume. 4h CVD has a Div too, but 4h CVD is not a tool which i look at often. CVD is much better at lower TF.
Bybit has more bearish volume Divs (obv, ad) than Binance.
Bybit has bearish divergence in CVD in every TF 15min-4h. 🧐 😆
POC of the both rising Ranges were bought with buy imbalances. (image 2-3)
Follow for more ideas/Signals.💲
Just donate some of your profit to Animal rights or other charity :)✌️
BTCUSDT Weekly Analysis — Potential Reversal or Trend Continuati📊 BTCUSDT Weekly Analysis
Technical Outlook — April 21, 2025
🔍 Current Market Condition:
Bitcoin is trading within a long-term ascending channel on the weekly timeframe. Price is approaching a crucial decision zone around $87,000–$90,000, marked by previous resistance and mid-channel structure.
🧩 Key Technical Highlights:
Price is retesting midline of the ascending channel.
Stochastic shows potential bullish cross from the oversold area.
Multiple resistance zones ahead: $90K, $100K, and $110K.
Support below at $75K and then 54K levels.
Structure suggests potential for a bounce or a deeper correction.
📈 Possible Scenarios:
Bullish:
If BTC breaks and holds above $90,000, we may see a continuation towards $100K and $110K.
A bullish Stochastic cross would strengthen this case.
Bearish:
Failure to break $90,000 and a rejection from resistance could send BTC back toward $75K or even worse $54K.
Watch for bearish divergence or weakness in momentum indicators.
📌 Important Note:
BTC is at a pivotal zone; traders should monitor macroeconomic news and market sentiment closely, especially with halving hype potentially priced in.
If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
not so much hope is leftBitcoin has found support around the $80,000 level and is currently trading with relatively low volatility. Investors remain cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on the global economy and whether a deal can be reached. The market hasn’t dropped to $60,000 yet, largely because there’s still hope that Trump might either secure a deal or abandon the tariff plan altogether.
Additionally, many investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on May 7, which is expected to be either bearish or neutral. Overall, the outlook remains bearish, with limited bullish scenarios likely to play out. The probability of a continued downtrend appears high.