TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #87👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s get into the analysis of Bitcoin and major crypto indices. As usual, I’ll review the triggers for the New York Futures session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour timeframe, Bitcoin moved sideways yesterday as I mentioned, and after the RSI exited the Overbuy zone, it corrected down to the 102391 area.
🔍 This was a very minor correction, mainly due to the RSI leaving the Overbuy zone. Currently, the oscillator has reset, and if it re-enters Overbuy, we can confirm the start of bullish momentum.
✨ Now the candle has closed above the 103642 area, and if the price stabilizes above this level, it could move toward the main resistance at 106247.
📊 In my opinion, the price will move toward 106247 and then enter a correction because the breakout of 103642 was accompanied by increased volume, and if this volume continues, the probability of this move increases.
📉 If the correction starts from the current level, the first support we have is 102391, and after that, there is no solid support until 99337.
🧩 The reason I’m not using Fibonacci to find support zones is that the price hasn’t confirmed the start of a correction yet, and a proper top hasn’t been formed. I’m waiting for that top and confirmation of the correction before identifying key correction levels.
✔️ For now, only these two support levels are important, and as long as the price is above 99337, the trend remains bullish.
📈 For opening a position today, the Bitcoin trigger at 103642 has been activated and is currently getting a pullback. If you get confirmation from this pullback, you can enter a position — but be careful, there's a very important resistance at 106247 and that zone is highly significant.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let’s move to Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, dominance had a slight correction and pause, and today it broke the 63.61 area and is moving toward the 63.23 support.
⚡️ It seems there’s strong bearish momentum in dominance, and if it continues to drop, I believe it could easily break 63.23 and move further down.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Let’s check out Total2. Yesterday, the 1.17 trigger for this index also activated, and you could open positions on altcoins.
💥 The next resistance we currently have is the 1.22 area, and considering the drop in Bitcoin dominance, this index can easily move toward that resistance.
🔔 At the moment, I can’t give you any trigger on this index — you can only enter based on confirmation from individual coins.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now let’s look at Tether dominance. This index has also continued its move and after a short pause, broke below 4.65 and is moving downward.
🎲 For now, the trend in dominance is bearish, which pushes the market upward.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTCUST trade ideas
BTCUSDT Technical Analysis📊 BTCUSDT Technical Analysis – May 11, 2025
Hello traders! 👋
Here’s a fresh technical analysis on the BTC/USDT pair using the 1D timeframe. The chart highlights key supply and demand zones, harmonic structure, and two potential price scenarios for the coming weeks.
📌 Key Levels:
Support Zone: 86,191 – 88,909 USDT
Mid-Resistance: 91,978 USDT
Major Resistance Area: 105,371 – 108,458 USDT
🔍 Technical Overview:
After forming a strong bottom around 76,560, BTC reversed and surged upwards, filling the Fair Value Gap (FVG) created earlier.
Price is now testing a critical supply zone. A rejection from here may lead to a pullback, possibly toward the 86k–89k range.
If the support zone holds, it may act as a springboard for a new bullish wave targeting 105k and beyond.
🧭 Possible Scenarios:
Rejection at Resistance: Consolidation or pullback from the 105k–108k zone followed by downward movement.
Support Bounce: Rebound from 86k–89k support area leading to renewed bullish momentum.
Sideways Action: Short-term consolidation in the current price range before direction is confirmed.
💬 What’s your outlook for BTC at this stage? Are you expecting a breakout or a pullback? Share your thoughts in the comments!
🔔 Stay tuned for more updates and trade safely!
Bitcoin BTC price analysis - READ the text !There was some positive news: "The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days."
The price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC has entered the zone of total sales - $105-110 thousand.
🕯 Metrics show that large wallets are now opening short positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and on the other hand, no less large wallets that organized this rebound in the OKX:BTCUSDT price are very tempted to launch the final stage of cascading liquidations of shorts.
🍿 So, stock up on popcorn - it's going to be "fun" today/tomorrow, and then we'll go to the stronger side!)
Globally, before the growth wave begins, we want to see the final "shake-up" of the longs who have survived everything and still held their positions and didn't give up.
1️⃣ Weak correction in the range of $90-91k - to close the GAP that formed on this rebound and then continue to confidently update ATH with a clear conscience.
2️⃣ A strong correction to the range of $80-82k - during which it will be very interesting to watch the capital flow and dominance.
Which scenario is closer to your heart? Write in the comments!
_____________________
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BITCOIN - Price can leave pennant and rise to $106500 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago, price traded inside a flat, where it declined to the $93400 support level and then rose to the top part of the flat.
Then it corrected, after which made a strong upward impulse, exiting from flat, and continued to grow in pennant.
In pennant, BTC broke $97800 and $102300 levels, after which it made retest and continued to grow to resistance line.
When the price reached this line, it corrected to support area, after which tried to grow, but failed and fell back.
But recently it rose to the resistance line of the pennant, where at the moment it continued to trades near.
In my opinion, BTC can correct to support line and then bounce up to $106500, exiting from the pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Bitcoin can continue grow in channel, after small correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. In this chart, we can see how the price remains inside a clear upward channel, respecting both support and resistance boundaries. After breaking above the 93400 - 92400 support area, the price continued to grow and formed a new support zone between 101700 - 102700 points. This area has been tested several times, showing strong buyer interest and keeping the bullish structure intact. Right now, BTC is hovering just above this support area. A minor correction down to this zone would be healthy and could provide fuel for the next upward leg. The market structure shows higher highs and higher lows, typical of a stable channel-driven trend. As long as the price stays above 101700 points, I expect it to move toward the upper channel boundary. That’s why my current target is set at 109000 points, which is the next key resistance and the top of the channel. This move would align with the current trend and follow the previous impulse-retracement pattern we’ve seen throughout this structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Interesting moment for try to Sell BTCInteresting moment for try to Sell BTC. We can see that a few local high is move down. And now we are around horizontal level that equal for all this points. I think we will broke this level to down and move to the try to broke previous low value. Stop on the previous local high. Will see...
BTC Crossroads: Will Tariff News Trigger a Counter-Trend Move?Given the recent easing of US-China tariff tensions, Bitcoin may consolidate or experience a slight pullback as capital rotates into equities. The resulting strength in the US dollar could further contribute to a Bitcoin retracement. I'm watching for a potential counter-trend setup, specifically a short entry on a break of market structure. However, this scenario is contingent on the price action unfolding as described in the video; otherwise, the idea will be invalidated.
Not financial advice.
Correction Imminent? Will Bitcoin Drop Or Continue Rising?As we can see here, Bitcoin is challenging resistance very close to the All-Time High. This is a price range. The highest Bitcoin was able to hit was $105,850, right below $106,000. Will Bitcoin drop now, even if short-term, or continue moving higher?
» Bitcoin will continue higher and produce a minimum of retrace.
Bitcoin is very likely staying above $100,000 and after some consolidation continue higher to hit a new All-Time High.
While Bitcoin moved above $100,000 on the 8th of May, there isn't any bearish pressure nor bearish momentum. The bears have no strength.
If there is selling happening, the bulls are more than ready and happy to buy everything up. Anyone and everyone selling now will simply lose their coins and miss a huge opportunity because Bitcoin is already growing and will continue to grow. It is normal to see some consolidation after a strong resistance level is hit. This resistance stands around $105K. Once this level breaks, we will see additional growth.
Bitcoin is bullish.
The market is bullish.
Any retraces are just an opportunity to buy-up, rebuy and reload. Do not sell your coins, hold strong. Hold easy or even buy more because Bitcoin is going up!
It can start growing right away, within hours or it can take a maximum of few days but the next major move is up. When Bitcoin starts going, it never looks back. The market will continue growing. Rest easy and buy more Altcoins.
Namaste.
Bitcoin, Higher Prices Or What? How Likely Are Markets To Crash?You cannot deny that the market can crash any day right? What to expect?
Should I be worried?
Last time I was feeling all good and all was well and then suddenly a flash crash showed up and my position was gone. I lost all of my money because of my stupidity of course, I couldn't blame the market because the market did not put the leverage on my position, it was all me, so what now; will it happen again?
You cannot get liquidated if you have less than 5X leverage on your position when the market goes sideways. The squeezes, shakeouts and swings normally take out positions with 10X or more.
You cannot get liquidated if you are LONG but buy when prices are low, near support.
You can get liquidated if you are buying when prices start to rise without a plan on an impulse. The market is shaking just for you.
You will definitely get liquidated if you are trading continually with 20X. There is an entire set of experts, professionals and programs buying and selling just to distract you and when you get distracted BOOM!, out of nowhere money forever gone, namaste.
» Bitcoin
It is the same dynamic all over again, resistance turns support.
I will reveal the technicals for you and you decide what to believe and what to do but my reasoning is supported by data, facts. It is not wishful thinking or random choosing. It is true the market can move in any way but you have to go with the side that has a high probability of success. If you do this often enough, you win in the end.
When the market was going down, every time there was a stop the next move would be a continuation of the main direction, the trend.
When the market is going up, every time there is a stop the next move will be a continuation is simple.
The question is this; is the market rising or falling?
The market has been rising for more than a month. Yes, it is meeting resistance but this resistance has already been challenged several times in the past. Bitcoin moving back to it after a strong correction means the decision point. If we didn't know about the fundamentals, the change in the regulatory landscape and the Altcoins, I don't know, I would say things look mixed at the most, but knowing about all these other factors I can say with confidence that Bitcoin will continue to grow. Don't get me wrong, there can be consolidation for a few more days and even more swings to remove some of those over-leveraged trades; the next major move is up and a new All-Time High.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTC New Update (12H)The upward wave appears to be a complex correction. Price may retrace downward either from this area or from the red box, and then we could see another strong bullish move from Bitcoin starting from the green zone.
It doesn’t matter where the rejection occurs | what matters is the green Rebuy zone marked on the chart.
In the green zone, we are looking for buy/long positions.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level will invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Important section: 101947.24-106133.74
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
It has touched the Fibonacci ratio 1.902 (101784.54) and is rising.
The key is whether it can receive support near the StochRSI 50 indicator (102971.99) and rise.
If not, it can fall to the 94915.18-97226.92 area.
Since the HA-Low indicator is formed at the 89294.25 point, it is important whether the price can be maintained above that point.
If the StochRSI indicator falls below the overbought range and then rises while moving sideways around the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101784.54) ~ 2 (106178.85), it is expected to renew the ATH.
Even if it falls more than expected, if it rises along the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, it is highly likely to renew the ATH.
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I will explain the newly added indicators, StochRSI 50, StochRSI 80, and StochRSI 20.
The disadvantage of interpreting the StochRSI indicator added as an auxiliary indicator is that it cannot determine the price movement.
Because of this, when interpreting the StochRSI indicator so far,
- Whether it is in the overbought or oversold zone,
- Whether StochRSI is above or below the 50 point,
we interpreted it as above.
Therefore, we added the price movement to the StochRSI indicator to check the movement more accurately.
-
The StochRSI 50 indicator is literally created when the StochRSI indicator passes the 50 point.
Therefore, we need to think about a response plan based on the price StochRSI 50 indicator.
-
The fact that StochRSI 80 is created means that the StochRSI indicator has risen above 80.
Therefore, in order to continue the upward trend, StochRSI must rise above 80.
If StochRSI 80 is not created and only StochRSI 20 is created, the upward trend will occur when the price is maintained above the StochRSI 50 indicator.
-
The fact that StochRSI 20 was created means that the StochRSI indicator has fallen below 20.
Therefore, in order to continue the downtrend, it must fall below StochRSI 20.
If StochRSI 20 is not created and only StochRSI 80 is created, the downtrend will occur when the price is maintained below the StochRSI 50 indicator.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.
Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
I think it is around 42283.58 when looking at the BTCUSDT chart.
-
I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.
Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.
To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.
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TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #95👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis and key crypto market indicators. As usual, I’ll break down the triggers for the New York futures session.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
As you can see on the 1-hour chart, yesterday the price bounced from the 102882 level and is now moving toward 104204.
🔍 I mentioned yesterday that if the price prints a higher low above 101628, we could open a position on a breakout of 104204. That scenario played out, and now that the price has risen from 102882, we’re approaching 104204. So, a breakout above 104204 is a long trigger.
📈 The next long trigger is at 104800, and breaking that level could push the price toward the main resistance at 106247.
💥 For a short position and bearish confirmation, ideally, we’d want to see a lower high below 104204. If that happens, a break below 102882 becomes a valid short trigger.
🔽 The main short trigger and confirmation of a bearish reversal would come with a break of 101628.
📊 Keep an eye on volume—if volume increases as the price approaches any of these levels, the chances of a breakout increase significantly.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Bitcoin Dominance moved slightly higher yesterday but got rejected from 63.71 and failed to reach 63.95.
✨ Currently, BTC.D is heading toward 63.30. If this level breaks, it could trigger a new bearish leg down toward 62.65 and 62.07.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Looking at Total2, this index couldn’t hold below 1.17 yesterday and bounced, currently reaching 1.19.
✔️ If the price holds above 1.19, that would be the first confirmation of bullish momentum. However, this move might also just be a pullback to 1.19—so if price gets rejected here, a break of 1.17 becomes the next short entry.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Tether Dominance was rejected from 4.70 and may be heading back toward the 4.51 support.
🧩 A break below 4.60 could give us an early bearish signal. The main short trigger remains the 4.51 level.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTC | New ATH Incoming | + 135% ??A very interesting fractal from 2021 lead to a 135% increase - and a new all time high.
Bitcoin has been following similar patterns to the bullish twin-peaks in 2021. After a multi-month correction, the price proceeded to increase another 135% over the next few months. Some weeks fast, and some weeks sideways.
Is it possible that BTC follows a similar pattern - and increase another 135%, all the way to 170k?
Hec, I'd even be happy with just a 100% ! That would lead us up to around 149k, which can also be considered a phycological resistance zone.
While you're here! Check out this post on PEPE:
_________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin is being squeezed. Will it experience a reversal?Hello, guys
Bitcoin has staged an aggressive recovery — but it’s not just any bounce. The move looks to be driven by a classic short squeeze, where extreme bearish sentiment and overcrowded short positions result in a sharp upward spike. This rally has now brought BTC right into a thick wall of resistance, and the next few candles could define the trend for weeks to come.
What’s Happening:
The short squeeze began after BTC reached heavily oversold levels. As price began to bounce, it forced short positions to unwind — fueling a momentum rally. But the rally hasn’t been supported by sustained demand; it’s been largely reactive. That’s where the caution comes in.
BTC is now sitting at a dense confluence of resistance, including
- The descending trendline from the broader channel
- The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement
- The point of control from the recent volume profile
- A major price level around $98,300
Why This Zone Matters:
Rejections from this area in the past have triggered sharp pullbacks. The fact that we haven’t seen immediate rejection yet raises eyebrows — but without strong volume and a decisive breakout, it’s premature to call this a full trend reversal. If the squeeze loses steam here, sellers could pile back in.
The Bullish Case:
If price grinds through this zone and closes above $98,300 with sustained volume, the landscape shifts. That level flips from resistance to support, potentially unlocking another leg higher.
The Bearish Case:
However, if this is just a squeeze without follow-through, expect a rejection to form soon. Watch for signs of slowing momentum, especially lower highs or sell pressure into resistance — classic signals of a local top forming.
Final Thoughts:
This is a make-or-break moment. The current structure is vulnerable to rapid moves in either direction. If BTC can’t hold this push, it may confirm a local high and set the stage for a deeper correction. But if bulls punch through resistance, momentum could snowball.
BTC - From Bullish to Extreme Bullish...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🏢 BTC Building Blocks:
📈 Bullish:
BTC is currently trading within the second floor, between $92,000 and the previous all-time high (ATH) at $109,000.
As BTC retests the $96,000 demand zone, we’ll be looking for trend-following long setups!
📈 Extreme Bullish:
For the momentum to shift from Bullish to Extreme Bullish and enter the price discovery phase, a break above the previous ATH around $109,000 is needed.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
BTC - New Impulse Soon!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 BTC has been bullish, trading within the rising channel marked in orange. 🟧
In a typical trend, corrections are usually bearish. 🔻
However, in BTC’s case, the correction phases marked in red are flat — a strong signal that the bulls are in control 💪 and not allowing the bears to trigger a classic pullback.
As long as BTC holds within the rising orange channel, we expect the next impulse phase to kick off soon 🚀 — aiming for the $115,000 round number. 🎯
This move will be confirmed once BTC breaks above the current flat correction zone marked in red. ✅
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bitcoin is consolidating and may continue to riseBitcoin is in consolidation and feels good. We have a bullish trend sitting, strong support, zone of interest and liquidity and strong resistance. Most importantly, we have consolidation
Price may test 103000 before continuing upwards
There may be a small correction to 103K before breaking 104200, but if the price does not continue to fall, but returns to 104.2, we can expect a break of resistance and continued growth.
Scenario: consolidation between 104200 and 103000 will increase the chances of resistance breakout and growth.
If bitcoin continues the correction, then we can consider a retest of 102300, 101800 before continuing growth.
Targets: 106500, 108400
BITCOIN Analysis (1H)We have a CHoCH (Change of Character) in the internal structure, and a bullish order block has been cleared. Price is currently within a supply zone, and there is a resistance line above the current price level.
It appears that price is aiming to pull back to lower support zones. These lower zones are fresh and unmitigated, so we expect that upon reaching them, price may bounce back upward toward the previous high.
A 4-hour candle closing above the invalidation level would invalidate this bias.
Do not enter the position without capital management and stop setting
Comment if you have any questions
thank you
BTC 4H analysisIn the previous analysis, the zone of 70 was determining level for us, whether it was a correction or a downward trend.
BTC continued it's upward movement from near that area.
Now Bitcoin is near it's historical resistance area, this time the zone of 110 to 114 plays this role for us.
According to ICHIMOKU and according to previous analysis, Bitcoin tends to move to higher levels marked on the chart.
BTC: Potential Dip into FVGs Before New ATHBitcoin has rocketed from ~$94 000 to ~$103 250 in just days and is now consolidating between $102 364–$104 145. A Swing Failure Pattern at the top suggests a corrective pullback into one of three Fair Value Gaps aligned with key Fibonacci retracements, before the next leg up toward a fresh all-time high. This setup uses structure, inefficiency zones, and Fib levels to pinpoint high-probability entries.
📊 Chart Breakdown
1. Current Picture: Consolidation & Warning ⚠️
- Range: $102 364 – $104 145
- Swing Failure Pattern (SFP): Price briefly wicks above $104 145 to grab liquidity, then reverses. This classic liquidity hunt often precedes a deeper retrace as late bulls are stopped out.
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) – Untested Support Zones 🌊
FVGs are rapid imbalance areas where price left gaps in the order book. These zones act like magnets, drawing price back to “fill” inefficiencies.
FVG 1 (Nearest): $101 700 – $102 364
FVG 2 (Mid-Zone): $99 900 – $100 600
FVG 3 (Deepest): $97 400 – $98 700
3. Fibonacci Confluences (from $93 377 → $104 145) 📏
Fibonacci retracement levels often align with FVGs to form confluence support—ideal for swing entries.
0.786 Fib @ $101 840.65: Sits squarely in FVG 1, a high-probability bounce zone.
0.618 Fib @ $100 031.62: Golden Ratio within FVG 2, offering strong support.
0.5 Fib @ $98 761 & 0.382 Fib @ $97 490.38: Cover top and mid-lower FVG 3 for a deep corrective entry.
📈📉 Navigating the Next Moves: Key Trade Scenarios 🧭
Given the current structure, with the SFP indicating a potential short-term top and strong FVG/Fibonacci confluences below, here are two primary scenarios we can watch for:
Scenario 1: The Short-Term Pullback Play (Short Position 📉🐻)
Concept: Capitalizing on the SFP at the consolidation high (~$104,145) to trade the anticipated dip towards the FVG/Fibonacci support clusters.
Aggressive Entry: Look for entries around $103,500 – $103,900 if price retests the upper part of the consolidation after the SFP, showing weakness.
Conservative Entry: A break below the consolidation low (~$102,364) could offer a confirmation entry, potentially on a retest of this broken level as resistance.
Stop-Loss 🛑: Place above the SFP high, e.g., $104,450 – $104,650, to protect against a false breakdown.
Profit Targets (FVG Zones) 🎯
TP1: The top of FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area (~$102,300 – $101,840). This zone is critical.
TP2: The FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area (~$100,600 – $100,030) if TP1 is breached with momentum.
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframes (e.g., 15m/1H rejection wicks, bearish engulfing) near the SFP high.
Profit Taking: Consider taking partial profits at TP1. The reaction here is crucial.
Reversal/Close Short: If price enters TP1 and shows strong bullish rejection (large wicks, engulfing bull candles, volume spike), close the short and prepare to flip to the long scenario.
Holding for TP2: If price slices through TP1 with sustained bearish pressure, trail your stop above TP1 once it’s clearly broken.
Invalidation: If price reclaims and holds above $104,650, the short thesis is invalidated.
Scenario 2: The FVG Rebound & Rally (Long Position 📈🐂)
Concept: Entering on the expectation that one of the FVG/Fibonacci confluence zones will hold as support, leading to a rebound and continuation of the larger uptrend.
Potential Entry Zones 📍:
Zone A (Primary): FVG 1 / 0.786 Fib area ($101,700 – $102,364, sweet spot ~$101,840).
Zone B (Secondary): FVG 2 / 0.618 Fib area ($99,900 – $100,600, sweet spot ~$100,030).
Stop-Loss 🛑:
If entering in Zone A: Place below FVG 1, e.g., $101,350 – $101,150.
If entering in Zone B: Place below FVG 2, e.g., $99,600 – $99,400.
Profit Targets 🎯:
TP1: Back to the consolidation high / SFP area (~$104,145).
TP2: The key resistance zone ($104,675 – $106,500).
TP3 (Ultimate): The All-Time High ($109,588).
Trade Management & Considerations 🤔:
Entry Confirmation: Do not blindly enter. Wait for price to enter your chosen FVG zone AND then show clear bullish confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 1H/4H bullish engulfing, hammer, RSI divergence).
Zone Prioritization: Zone A is the first test. If it fails and breaks down, Zone B becomes the next area of interest.
Profit Taking & Scaling Out: Take partial profits at TP1 and again at TP2 to secure gains.
Risk Reduction: After TP1 is hit, move your stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit.
Invalidation: A decisive break below $99,400 invalidates the bounce thesis and suggests a deeper correction.
🎯 Execution Notes
- Patience & Confirmation: Avoid “blind” entries. Seek volume confirmation and clear reversal candle patterns on 1H/4H charts.
- Risk Management: Define stops before entry and size positions to risk no more than 1–2% per trade.
- Additional Signals: Watch for bullish RSI/RSI-MFI divergences or a turn in on-balance volume at support zones.
Disclaimer: This is for educational/informational purposes only and not financial advice. Crypto trading carries high risk—always DYOR and consult a qualified advisor.
What’s your take? Which FVG/Fib level will hold? Share your insights below!