BTC/USDT Chart Analysis.
BTC has been in an uptrend since early April 2025, breaking above a strong horizontal resistance line (visible in the chart).
However, we can now observe a descending channel (falling wedge) after the peak, indicating a potential pullback.
Support Levels:
The price has tested the 50-day SMA (red) and is approaching the 200-day SMA (green), which is a strong dynamic support (around $94,740–$98,000).
Horizontal support lines are around the $103,000 and $100,000 levels, acting as immediate support.
Price Pattern:
The pattern resembles a bullish flag or descending wedge, suggesting a possible continuation of the previous upward move if a breakout occurs.
Before a bullish reversal, a retest of support levels (highlighted in the blue circle) near the moving averages is possible.
Future Path (as drawn on the chart):
Possible pullback to around $100,000–$98,000 levels.
Reversal and breakout are expected to be between $112,000 and $115,000 initially, and possibly higher to $125,000–$130,000.
Volume & Momentum:
No volume data is shown, but the price action indicates a correction with weakening momentum.
Trend lines are sloping upwards, indicating underlying strength despite the correction.
Trade Setup Based on This Analysis
Entry Zone: Around $100,000–$98,000 (if price tests support and forms reversal patterns like a bullish engulfing or hammer).
Stop-Loss: Below $94,000 (below the 200 SMA and the trendline support).
Short-Term Target: $112,000–$115,000.
Mid-Term Target: $125,000–$130,000.
Risk Considerations
If BTC breaks below the 200 SMA and horizontal support near $94,000, the trend may weaken.
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
BTCUST trade ideas
BTC — Waiting for Sweep & Reversal TriggerPrice failed to reclaim broken support at $106.4k and continues to trend downward. Current level offers no long setup — the structure remains bearish with no confirmed reversal yet.
Key Zone:
🟩 Sweep Zone: $104.4k (H12 range low)
Watch this area for a possible liquidity grab and a higher timeframe trigger for long entries. This is a critical level — a bounce with confirmation could mark a reversal.
🚫 Break Below $104k → Invalidation
If the price closes below this zone, the bullish thesis is off the table. Risk of deeper flush increases significantly, with next supports well below.
🎯 Upside Targets (if reversal confirmed):
• $108.4k
• $112.4k
Plan:
No longs at the current level. Wait for a sweep of the range low and a strong reversal signal before considering entries. Reclaim of $106.4k would add confluence.
📌 Disciplined patience pays — no FOMO entries here.
Bitcoin Challenges Support —Never Ever Below $80,000 (80K)I updated this chart to show the full support range. This is Bitcoin's main support. Between $100,000 and $103,000. If this level breaks, prepare to see Bitcoin producing another week red then consolidation, on and on, before the next high.
If this support holds, then we can expect a soon and fast recovery.
The most likely scenario is that it will take around 2-3 weeks before the retrace-correction is over followed by new growth.
Remember, always a higher low. Just look back to August 2024. After the major low was in, there was indeed retraces and corrections as part of the bullish phase. It is the same.
Retraces and corrections are just an opportunity to buy-in, rebuy and reload.
If you missed below $80,000 in the last drop, you can get below $90,000 in this drop. But not much lower.
Bitcoin will never ever trade below 80K.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
BTC 3D – Key S/R Level in PlayBTC is currently trading below the black line, which marks the double top support/resistance level on the 3D chart.
Tonight’s 3D candle close will be important:
🔻 A close below could open the way for more downside.
🔼 A close above might invite continuation—but neither outcome is guaranteed.
🎯 The best approach? Stick to the system.
Place orders just below the last PSAR, stay disciplined, and avoid emotional decisions.
✅ Always take profits.
✅ Always manage risk.
These are the only two things we can truly control.
Thanks for reading—and if you found this helpful, feel free to react or leave a comment!
BTCUSDT/IBIT: No Recovery in Sight Yet. Don't Be Fooled.Hello everyone. As I closely examine BTCUSDT and IBIT, I have a significant observation: there are no clear signals yet that selling is slowing down. This means it's too early to speak of a recovery in the market.
As intelligent investors, we look not only at price movements but also at the market's underlying dynamics. Currently, I see no clear indication in either BTCUSDT or IBIT that selling pressure is diminishing.
In such situations, a meticulous examination of the volume footprint is essential. We analyze every detail in the volume to understand if buyers are truly stepping in, and if selling orders are being absorbed. At the same time, I am closely monitoring CDV (Cumulative Delta Volume) divergences. If selling pressure were truly decreasing, we would expect to see clues in the CDV, but as of now, such confirmation is absent.
To confidently state that the market has entered a recovery phase, we need strong and confirmed breakouts on a low timeframe (LTF). Following these breakouts, a successful retest of the broken levels as support would be a reliable signal that the market has shifted direction. However, at present, such a structure has not formed.
As you know, I only trade coins that show a sudden and significant increase in volume. This approach allows me to focus my capital where the market is truly revealing its intentions. My current observation in BTCUSDT and IBIT is that this type of volume increase is not yet signaling a recovery.
Therefore, for those anticipating a market recovery, it is crucial not to act hastily and to await concrete confirmation signals. The market rewards the patient.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below:
🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry
🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move
🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month
💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace
🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge
📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone
🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential
🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade
🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones
🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River
📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones
🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum
🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision
🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs
🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity
🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked
🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer
🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan
⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One
💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas
🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence
🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results
🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB
📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total
🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction
🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction
📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely
📊 XNOUSDT %80 Reaction with a Simple Blue Box!
📊 BELUSDT Amazing %120 Reaction!
📊 Simple Red Box, Extraordinary Results
📊 TIAUSDT | Still No Buyers—Maintaining a Bearish Outlook
📊 OGNUSDT | One of Today’s Highest Volume Gainers – +32.44%
I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
bitcoinBitcoin (BTC) Correlation with DXY, Bond Yields, and Interest Rates
1. Bitcoin vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inverse Correlation: Bitcoin and DXY typically move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar (DXY↑) reduces demand for risk assets like BTC, while a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts BTC as a hedge against fiat depreciation.
DXY↑: Investors flock to USD safety, pressuring BTC.
DXY↓: Capital rotates into BTC as a risk-on asset or inflation hedge.
2. Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields
Evolving Relationship:
Historical Inverse Link: Rising 10-year Treasury yields often pressured BTC (e.g., 2022 Fed hikes).
Recent Decoupling: In 2025, BTC and 10-year yields hit a record-low correlation (-0.8), signaling BTC’s independence from traditional bonds.
Key Drivers:
Inflation Hedge: BTC gains appeal as bonds struggle with rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields at 5.07% in May 2025).
Portfolio Diversification: Investors increasingly treat BTC as “digital gold,” reducing bond allocations.
3. Bitcoin vs. Interest Rates
Fed Policy Impact:
Rate Hikes: Strengthen USD (DXY↑) and bond yields, pressuring BTC
Rate Cuts: Weaken USD and lower yields, boosting BTC’s appeal
Real Yields Matter: BTC thrives when real yields (nominal yield - inflation) fall, as seen during stagflationary environments.
Summary Table
Correlation Relationship Key Drivers
BTC ⇄ DXY Inverse (DXY↑ → BTC↓) Risk sentiment, USD strength as safe haven
BTC ⇄ Bond Yields Increasingly negative (2025) Inflation hedging, portfolio diversification
BTC ⇄ Interest Rates Indirect via DXY and yields Fed policy, real yield dynamics
Critical Trends in 2025
BTC-DXY Decoupling: BTC’s rally to $105,268 and hit 111k amid DXY volatility shows growing independence.
Bond Market Shift: Investors rotate from Treasuries to BTC amid fiscal deficits and inflation.
Fed Policy Pivot: Expected rate cuts could weaken DXY and bolster BTC’s bullish case.
Conclusion
BTC-Yields: Negative correlation strengthens BTC’s role as a bond alternative in inflationary regimes.
Macro Strategy: Use DXY and bond yields as leading indicators for BTC’s risk-on/risk-off cycles.
Trade Implications:
A DXY drop below 98.4 could signal BTC bullish momentum.
Rising bond yields may temporarily pressure BTC but reinforce its long-term hedge appeal.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto
BITCOIN Bitcoin (BTC) Correlation with DXY, Bond Yields, and Interest Rates
1. Bitcoin vs. Dollar Index (DXY)
Inverse Correlation: Bitcoin and DXY typically move in opposite directions. A stronger dollar (DXY↑) reduces demand for risk assets like BTC, while a weaker dollar (DXY↓) boosts BTC as a hedge against fiat depreciation.
DXY↑: Investors flock to USD safety, pressuring BTC.
DXY↓: Capital rotates into BTC as a risk-on asset or inflation hedge.
2. Bitcoin vs. Bond Yields
Evolving Relationship:
Historical Inverse Link: Rising 10-year Treasury yields often pressured BTC (e.g., 2022 Fed hikes).
Recent Decoupling: In 2025, BTC and 10-year yields hit a record-low correlation (-0.8), signaling BTC’s independence from traditional bonds.
Key Drivers:
Inflation Hedge: BTC gains appeal as bonds struggle with rising yields (e.g., 30-year yields at 5.07% in May 2025).
Portfolio Diversification: Investors increasingly treat BTC as “digital gold,” reducing bond allocations.
3. Bitcoin vs. Interest Rates
Fed Policy Impact:
Rate Hikes: Strengthen USD (DXY↑) and bond yields, pressuring BTC
Rate Cuts: Weaken USD and lower yields, boosting BTC’s appeal
Real Yields Matter: BTC thrives when real yields (nominal yield - inflation) fall, as seen during stagflationary environments.
Summary Table
Correlation Relationship Key Drivers
BTC ⇄ DXY Inverse (DXY↑ → BTC↓) Risk sentiment, USD strength as safe haven
BTC ⇄ Bond Yields Increasingly negative (2025) Inflation hedging, portfolio diversification
BTC ⇄ Interest Rates Indirect via DXY and yields Fed policy, real yield dynamics
Critical Trends in 2025
BTC-DXY Decoupling: BTC’s rally to $105,268 and hit 111k amid DXY volatility shows growing independence.
Bond Market Shift: Investors rotate from Treasuries to BTC amid fiscal deficits and inflation.
Fed Policy Pivot: Expected rate cuts could weaken DXY and bolster BTC’s bullish case.
Conclusion
BTC-Yields: Negative correlation strengthens BTC’s role as a bond alternative in inflationary regimes.
Macro Strategy: Use DXY and bond yields as leading indicators for BTC’s risk-on/risk-off cycles.
Trade Implications:
A DXY drop below 98.4 could signal BTC bullish momentum.
Rising bond yields may temporarily pressure BTC but reinforce its long-term hedge appeal.
#btc #bitcoin #crypto
Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis and Market Trend Prediction
🧠 Comprehensive Bitcoin Analysis in 4-Hour Timeframe
📅 Date: May 30, 2025
✍️ Analyst: Mahaam
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture. As of May 29, 2025, it is trading around 105,543 USD, approximately 5.7% lower than its recent peak of 111,970 USD on May 22. The daily trading volume is around 32.47 billion USD, and Bitcoin's market capitalization has reached 2.16 trillion USD.
📊 Technical Analysis:
📈 Price Trend and Moving Averages:
The Bitcoin chart indicates that after a strong rally starting in late April 2025, the market is now undergoing a price correction. The 20-day moving average is currently around 108,017 USD, and the 50-day moving average is around 97,500 USD. The current price remains above both moving averages, indicating a sustained medium-term bullish trend, though the growing distance from the 20-day MA may reflect weakening upward momentum.
📉 RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is currently at 53, signaling an exit from the overbought zone. It has dropped from levels above 70 in early May, showing increased selling pressure. However, it remains in a neutral range, with no indication of entering the oversold zone (below 30).
📉 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
The MACD is currently declining and has crossed below the signal line, indicating a short-term sell signal. The MACD histogram is also turning negative, suggesting a decrease in upward momentum and rising short-term selling pressure.
⚖️ Long/Short Ratio:
Data from CoinGlass shows the BTCUSDT long/short ratio on Binance has reached its highest level since the beginning of the month. Currently, 6 out of 10 accounts hold long positions. This imbalance could lead to a long squeeze, forcing traders to close long positions and increasing selling pressure.
📊 Volume:
Trading volume has decreased in recent days, indicating reduced buyer interest at current price levels. In the past 24 hours, approximately 650 million USD in long positions across the crypto market have been liquidated, with nearly one-third of that related to Bitcoin.
📍 Key Resistance Levels:
• 109,300 USD (recent daily high)
• 111,970 USD (all-time high)
📍 Key Support Levels:
• 106,000 USD (Fib 23.6%)
• 103,460 USD (Fib 38.2%)
• 100,000 USD (key psychological level)
🧠 Fundamental Analysis:
🏦 Institutional Buying and Corporate Investment:
One of the most significant recent developments is the announcement from Trump Media and Technology Group about raising 2.5 billion USD to invest in Bitcoin. Approximately 50 institutional investors participated, allocating 1.5 billion USD for common stock purchases and 1 billion USD for convertible bonds. This move aims to create a Bitcoin reserve for the company and could signal increasing institutional adoption.
📅 Bitcoin 2025 Conference:
Held from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, the conference featured key figures such as Michael Saylor and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Prominent analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out a pattern where Bitcoin's price tends to decline after each Bitcoin Conference. Based on historical data, the average post-conference drop is about 27%, which, if repeated, could push the price below 80,000 USD.
🔮 Price Forecasts by Leading Analysts:
📌 Adam Back (CEO, Blockstream): At least several hundred thousand USD in 2025, potentially up to 1 million USD if the U.S. implements a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
📌 Geoff Kendrick (Global Head of Digital Assets, Standard Chartered): 120,000 USD in H1 2025, 200,000 USD by year-end, citing stablecoins legitimizing the crypto market.
📌 Mike Novogratz (Founder, Galaxy Digital): Between 130,000 and 150,000 USD, driven by strong institutional inflows, a weakening dollar, and rising demand for digital assets.
📌 Cathie Wood (CEO, ARK Invest): 1.5 million USD by 2030, requiring a 58% CAGR over the next five years.
📌 Arthur Hayes (Founder, BitMEX): 250,000 USD by the end of 2025 if the Fed returns to quantitative easing.
🌐 Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Context:
Trade tensions and tariff uncertainties continue to influence investor sentiment. A U.S. appellate court recently reinstated trade tariffs, while the government is appealing the previous decision that overturned them. Additionally, the self-imposed deadline for trade agreements is approaching on July 9.
🧭 Potential Scenarios:
🚀 Bullish Scenario:
If Bitcoin breaks the 109,300 USD resistance and holds above it, there is a possibility of retesting the all-time high at 111,970 USD. A breakout beyond that could pave the way toward the 120,000 to 130,000 USD range.
🔹 Supporting Factors:
• Continued institutional and corporate investments in Bitcoin
• Return of expansionary monetary policies by the Fed
• Greater adoption and utility of stablecoins
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If selling pressure continues and price drops below the 106,000 USD support level, further declines toward 103,000 USD and 100,000 USD are possible. If the psychological support at 100,000 USD fails, the next target could be around 90,000 USD.
🔻 Driving Factors:
• Long squeeze due to high long/short ratio
• Historical pattern of post-conference price drops
• Increasing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty
✅ Conclusion:
Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. Technical indicators suggest weakening bullish momentum and short-term correction risks. The long/short imbalance and historical patterns add to the possibility of a notable pullback.
Nevertheless, strong fundamentals like growing institutional and corporate adoption (especially the Trump Media announcement) support a positive mid-to-long-term outlook. Leading analysts’ forecasts remain largely bullish, with price targets between 130,000 and 250,000 USD by year-end 2025.
In summary, Bitcoin may face short-term selling pressure, but the mid- and long-term perspective remains optimistic. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels and adjust their strategies based on market reactions.
📚 Sources:
The Crypto Basic
CoinDesk
Cointelegraph
FX Empire
Bitcoin.com News
Reuters
CoinGlass
BTCUSDTHi snipers. On the one-day time frame, the price has decreased and reached a support point. According to the evidence of Ichimoku and RSI, there is a possibility of the price suffering and increasing again. If the news of interest rates, tariffs and other news does not affect the market. I am practicing and learning. This is not an offer to buy or sell.
BTC WHAT IF NOW IT'S TIME?BTC Long — Setup Breakdown
🟢 Bullish divergence spotted on CCI (15M)
I'm expecting price to be delivered into the 107.5K–107.8K zone — my equilibrium area —
followed by a potential main move down, targeting a new low.
As mentioned earlier, failure to hold the 104K zone would open the path to the psychological 100K level,
with a possible liquidity sweep to 99K.
Let’s see how it plays out. Stay sharp.
🦁🦁🦁
BTC RISK FALLING BACK TO 99k!!Bear pressure increases after price failed to break or trade back to an all time high price of 111,900 from the technical standpoint, we’re likely going to see a drop in price to 99k ( slightly below the 23.6% fibo retracement level) this has a high probability of occurring price pushed to ATH right after the 99k & 100k level got broken. So , I anticipate price to revisit that zone.
BTCUSD Entre point 106 105500target 106500 stop loss 104700I think there's a formatting issue with the entry point. Assuming it's BTCUSD:
- Entry Point: 105,500
- Target: 106,500 (1,000-point gain)
- Stop Loss: 104,700 (800-point risk)
Risk-reward ratio looks decent! Let's see how it plays out. What's your trading strategy behind this setup? Are you expecting a bullish breakout?