BTC/USDT 4-hour chart snapshotPrice: $108,745
Recent High: $111,958
Recent Low: $92,810
EMA Cluster (5, 10, 20): ~$109,130–109,280
RSI(6): 38.89 (near oversold)
RSI(12): 47.24
RSI(24): 51.67
MACD: Negative histogram, lines converging but no cross yet
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Technical Analysis
Trend:
BTC is consolidating just below the short-term EMA cluster after a strong rally from ~$92,800 to ~$111,950 over the past weeks. The price is currently testing the support near $108,500–$109,000 zone, which aligns with the EMAs acting as dynamic support.
Momentum:
RSI near 38.9 on the shortest timeframe shows short-term oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce soon. However, RSI(12) and RSI(24) in the 47–51 range show a neutral to mildly bearish momentum overall.
MACD histogram is negative but the signal and MACD lines are converging, indicating momentum may soon shift if a bullish crossover occurs.
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Key Levels
Support Zones:
$108,000 – $109,000 (EMA cluster + recent price consolidation)
$105,000 (psychological support and prior minor consolidation)
$101,000 – $102,000 (CME gap zone, strong institutional interest likely)
Resistance Zones:
$111,900 – $112,000 (recent all-time high zone, major supply zone)
$114,000 – $115,000 (round number resistance, prior supply)
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Upcoming Move & Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
If BTC holds above $108,000 and breaks back above EMA cluster with increasing volume, look for a move back toward $112,000–$115,000. A MACD bullish crossover combined with RSI climbing above 50 would confirm momentum recovery.
Bearish Scenario:
If BTC breaks decisively below $108,000 with strong volume, expect a pullback toward $105,000 and possibly to the CME gap zone near $101,000–$102,000. Confirmation would be MACD continuing downward and RSI dropping below 40.
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Summary
BTC is in a healthy consolidation phase after a strong rally, currently testing key dynamic supports. Watch the EMA cluster ($108k–$109k) closely for a bounce or breakdown. Momentum indicators suggest a potential bounce soon, but confirmation via MACD and RSI is crucial before committing. Next major upside target remains the $112k-$115k zone, while downside risk sits near $105k and $101k.
