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BTCUST trade ideas

The Big (BTC) Short*please note that this chart has been "flipped" so is upside down. It's difficult to ignore the number of indicators and chart patterns that are signalling a move up for Bitcoin: - Bullish div in daily RSI - Oversold daily RSI - Breakout of downtrend (both RSI and chart pattern) - Near-touch of the previous ATH Etc HOWEVER this idea is a "what-if-everyones-wrong" hedge. We've already seen a break in the uptrend that was in play since Oct 23 so it is feasible that if we break through again we could see a significant move down to the sound of -30% which would re-test the 618 fib and is a liquidity-rich Zone. Entry @ 94K (which ironically is also the 618 measuring from ATH to the local trough @ 74.5K) which coincides with the random "pump" we saw on Sunday 2nd March. I think the crypto God's are telling us something with this particular price point/wick. Estimated flight time is roughly 2 months (back end of June).
Short
by Cryptarch_
Bitcoin: Long-Term OutlookClearly, this is more of a schematic scenario, and the probability of it playing out exactly as drawn is extremely low. The core idea is that I lean toward the view that a medium-term downtrend is unfolding — meaning it’s still developing. In this context, every local upward impulse should be treated as a potential opportunity to enter short positions. As long as the price stays below 96,392, we’re likely seeing the formation of distribution zones — from which the market may continue to move lower, aiming to break recent medium-term lows, with the potential to drop below the 70,000 level. Also, if we look at the current market sentiment, most traders are excited about a new all-time high — and that often means the opposite is more likely, since the crowd tends to be wrong at key moments. That said, this doesn’t mean shorting at current levels. It’s still essential to wait for clear confirmations to ensure higher-quality entries.
Short
by nlt_group
BITCOINThe future of Bitcoin (BTC) trading amid potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 hinges on liquidity dynamics, institutional participation, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Here's a structured outlook based on current Fed signals and market dynamics: Immediate Impact of Fed Rate Cuts Liquidity Injection: Fed rate cuts typically reduce borrowing costs, increasing capital flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. Historical precedents (e.g., September 2024’s 50-basis-point cut) show Bitcoin rallies post-easing, with prices surging 20–30% in weeks due to improved risk appetite. Inflation Hedge Narrative: Persistent inflation (Fed’s 2025 forecast: ~3.2%) could reignite Bitcoin’s “digital gold” appeal. Its fixed supply and halving-driven scarcity make it attractive if fiat devaluation fears escalate. Key Factors Shaping BTC’s Trajectory Fed Policy Timing: Markets price in two 2025 rate cuts starting in Q3, but JPMorgan warns of a potential “sizable cut” pre-May FOMC if economic turbulence (e.g., tariff shocks) intensifies. Delayed cuts may trigger short-term BTC volatility, while earlier action could propel prices toward $100,000–$120,000. Institutional Inflows: ETFs and corporate treasuries continue accumulating BTC, with Bernstein projecting $150,000–$200,000 by late 2025 if Fed easing aligns with GETTEX:70B + inflows. Macro Risks: Trade Wars: Escalating U.S.-China tariffs may tighten financial conditions, delaying Fed cuts and pressuring BTC. USD Strength: Prolonged Fed hawkishness could bolster the dollar, capping BTC’s upside despite rate cuts. Scenarios for BTC in 2025 Scenario BTC Price Outlook Catalysts Early Fed Cut (Q2) Rally to $100,000–$120k Faster QT slowdown + dovish Fed rhetoric Delayed Cut (Q4) Range-bound $75k–$90k Sticky inflation + strong USD momentum Recession Triggers Spike to $150k+ Flight to scarcity amid equity sell-offs Long-Term Trends Halving Cycle: April 2024’s halving reduced new supply, historically preceding bull runs. Combined with Fed easing, this could amplify 2025 gains. Regulatory Clarity: SEC approval of spot BTC ETFs and stablecoin frameworks may bolster institutional adoption, stabilizing volatility. Strategic Takeaways Bullish Catalysts: Fed cuts, ETF inflows, and inflation spikes. Bearish Risks: Delayed easing, USD resilience, and geopolitical shocks.. In summary, Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory leans bullish if Fed rate cuts materialize as expected, but traders must navigate volatility from policy shifts and macro shocks. Institutional adoption and BTC’s scarcity will likely underpin long-term appreciation.
Long
by Shavyfxhub
BITCOINBitcoin's current liquidity constraints and recent 4-hour chart breakout reflect a tug-of-war between technical momentum and market mechanics. Here's a breakdown of key factors influencing BTC's trajectory: Why BTC Lacks Liquidity Push Exchange-Controlled Volatility: Market makers are suppressing rapid price surges to profit from liquidations, with Identified supplied zone as a "liquidity trap zone" where leveraged long positions were targeted. This artificial containment explains the muted liquidity-driven rally despite favorable macro conditions. Delayed Fed Easing: The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening persists, delaying a full liquidity injection cycle. While U.S. Treasury drawdowns added $510B since February 2025, Bitcoin’s correlation to liquidity peaks (projected at $6.5T by Q4) remains partial until Fed rate cuts materialize. Risk-Off Sentiment: Geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty have diverted some institutional capital to gold (recently surpassing $3,200/oz), temporarily capping Bitcoin’s haven appeal. 4-Hour Descending Trendline Breakout: Bullish Signals Technical Validation: BTC broke above a descending resistance line that governed price action since December 2024,my confirmation will be by a strong close above $85400 on the daily chart. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish flag pattern, with higher lows suggesting accumulation. Momentum Indicators: A bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart and rising RSI (4-hour) signal growing buying pressure, though the MACD histogram remains tentative. Upswing Potential vs. Liquidity Risks Bull Case: A sustained break above $85,300 could trigger a rally toward $88,000–$92,000 this week, aligning with historical post-halving cycles and ETF inflow momentum. Bernstein analysts project $150K–$200K by late 2025 if ETF inflows hit GETTEX:70B + and Fed easing accelerates. Bear Risks: Exchanges may continue suppressing rallies to harvest liquidity, risking pullbacks to $81K–$84K if $85K fails to hold as it prevented price upswing many times . Delayed Fed rate cuts or renewed trade tensions could tighten financial conditions, stifling Bitcoin’s macro-driven upside. Short-Term Outlook The 4-hour trendline breakout favors a bullish bias, with April targets at FWB:88K – GETTEX:92K if BTC holds above $85K. However, liquidity constraints from market maker tactics and gold’s haven dominance may delay a sustained rally until broader macro catalysts (Fed policy shifts, debt ceiling resolution) emerge. Traders should watch for a daily close above $85,400 to confirm upward momentum where i lookt to target 90k and sell from that zone
Long
by Shavyfxhub
BTCBitcoin’s sudden price surge in April 2025 is driven by several key factors: Weakening U.S. Dollar and Treasury Speculation Bitcoin’s recent rally above $87,700 coincides with a weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY) and market speculation about upcoming U.S. Treasury buybacks, which could inject liquidity and reduce dollar strength, making BTC more attractive as an alternative asset. Volatile Stock Markets and Safe-Haven Demand Continued volatility and declines in traditional equity markets have pushed investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin. Its fixed supply and growing recognition as a store of value amid economic uncertainty support its price gains. Return of Institutional Money Institutional investors are flowing back into Bitcoin, increasing demand and trading volumes. This renewed institutional interest adds credibility and liquidity to the market, fueling upward momentum. Positive Technical and On-Chain Indicators Technical signals such as a bullish MACD crossover and rising RSI indicate strong buying momentum. On-chain data shows increased active addresses and network activity, suggesting heightened investor engagement. Influential Social Media and Market Sentiment A notable tweet by Crypto Rover predicting a $100,000 Bitcoin triggered a surge in trading volume (up 17.8% in 24 hours) and a shift in market sentiment from neutral to greedy, further accelerating price gains through speculative trading and momentum strategies. Macro Stimulus and Global Monetary Policies Monetary stimulus measures in China and Europe, alongside expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025, are increasing liquidity in global markets. This environment favors risk assets like Bitcoin, which is decoupling from traditional markets and benefiting from global stimulus. Summary Factor Impact on Bitcoin Price Weakening U.S. dollar Boosts BTC as alternative asset Stock market volatility Drives safe-haven demand Institutional inflows Increases liquidity and market confidence Technical and on-chain momentum Signals strong buying pressure Influential social media Sparks rapid speculative buying Global monetary stimulus Enhances liquidity, supports risk assets Bitcoin’s current surge reflects a convergence of macroeconomic uncertainty, technical strength, and renewed investor interest, positioning it for potential further gains towards 100k on break of structure
Long
by Shavyfxhub
BTC TO THE MOON! or no?)I am closely analyzing Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent price action following its decisive break above the critical $88,700 resistance level. This breakout has shifted market dynamics, and several scenarios now appear plausible based on current structure and momentum: Pullback and Continuation: BTC may experience a corrective move back to the $88,000–$89,000 zone, likely retesting the breakout level as support. For this bullish scenario to remain valid, BTC must reclaim and close above the prior monthly high (PMH) by the end of the current monthly candle, signaling strong buyer commitment and paving the way for further upside. Immediate Advance with Later Correction: Alternatively, BTC could continue its ascent toward the PMH, potentially encountering resistance at this key level. A rejection here might trigger a retracement to the $88,000–$89,000 range, where buyers could step in to defend the newly established support. Bearish Breakdown: Should BTC fail to hold above $88,000, a breakdown below this level could accelerate selling pressure, targeting the $83,000 region. Such a move would likely liquidate a significant number of leveraged long positions, amplifying volatility and potentially resetting the market for a deeper correction. At the time of this analysis, BTC is trading at approximately $91,234, with a 24-hour high of $91,898 and a low of $90,123 as of April 24, 2025, reflecting heightened volatility post-breakout. Traders should monitor price action around the aforementioned levels, particularly the $88,000–$89,000 zone and the PMH, as these will be critical in determining the next directional move. Risk management remains paramount in this high-probability setup.
Long
by Almenio
BTC Setup: Scalp Shorts Active Below 97.5K BTC is currently facing strong resistance around the 97.5K area on the daily timeframe. As long as BTC stays below 97.5K on a daily closing basis, I am expecting a potential pullback move. 📉 There is a chance of a wick or sharp move down toward the 92K zone, which could provide good scalp short opportunities. 📈 However, a clear breakout and daily close above 97.5K would invalidate this short idea and shift the bias back to bullish continuation. Trade Plan: 🔻 Below 97.5K = Look for scalp shorts with strict risk management. 🔼 Above 97.5K = Exit shorts and watch for bullish setups. Always remember: Protect your capital and stick to your plan! 🎯 ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This post is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage your own risk before entering any trade.
Short
by Forexcryptowithjohn
BTC-----Sell around 92600 area, target 91800-91500 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on April 24: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, the K-line pattern continued to rise, the price was at a high level, and the attached indicator was running in a golden cross. The general trend is still rising, but after yesterday's price surged, it did not continue this morning but began to retreat under pressure. This is a correction. The four-hour chart K-line continued to be negative, and the price was near the moving average pressure level. In this way, the decline should be seen first during the day. The short-cycle hourly chart started from yesterday's European session. The price continued to fluctuate at a high level. The price began to retreat under pressure in Asian time. The current K-line pattern is a single positive line with a continuous negative line, and the attached indicator is running in a dead cross, and the strength of the four-hour chart has not yet come out. Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: sell directly at the current price of 92600, stop loss in the 93100 area, and target the 91800-91500 area;
Short
by Toml1314
Here is the analysis of your BTC/USDT 1D chart. BTC/USDT – 1D Chart Analysis Golden Cross Replay? Two important moving averages in play: 50-day MA (red): ~84,341 200-day MA (green): ~88,546 Earlier in the chart (circled on the left), BTC broke above both MAs, starting a strong bullish rally towards $120K. We are potentially seeing a repeat of that pattern now Breakout Confirmation The price broke out of the descending triangle pattern (black trendline) — a bullish signal. Strong breakout volume (green arrow) indicates conviction. A retest of the breakout level (yellow area) at ~$92,000–$93,000 as support could confirm continuation. Key Levels Support: FWB:88K –$90K Breakout Zone: ~ GETTEX:92K Target Zone: $110K–$120K range if momentum continues Golden Cross-like structure forming again Downtrend resistance broken Retest at horizontal resistance in progress Look for confirmation of holding above the yellow zone to target higher levels @CRYPTOSANDERS always provides crisp chart alpha. NFA – DYOR Share your thoughts or setups!
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTCUSDT potential for the next bull run!Trading Scenario: Bullish Breakout Current Situation: BTCUSDT is currently trading around $85,300, near a resistance area indicated by the purple horizontal line. You've identified this as a key level. Below the current price, It's been marked a support zone (another purple horizontal line). You also have three potential take-profit levels (TP1, TP2, TP3) significantly higher, suggesting you anticipate a strong upward move if resistance is broken. Entry: Aggressive Entry: A potential entry could be considered upon a confirmed breakout above the current resistance level (around $86,000). A strong bullish candle closing above this level with good volume could signal the start of the upward momentum. Conservative Entry: More conservative traders might wait for a retest of the broken resistance as new support before entering a long position. This reduces the risk of a false breakout. Stop Loss: A stop-loss order should be placed below the recent support level (around $84,000). This level acted as a floor previously, and a break below it might invalidate the bullish scenario. You could also consider placing it slightly below the entry point if you enter on a retest. Take Profit Levels: TP1: $88,500. This is your first target and a logical place to take partial profits or move your stop loss to breakeven to secure the initial gains. TP2: $93,000. This is your second profit target, representing a more significant move upwards. Consider taking more profits at this level. TP3: $99,000. This is your final and most ambitious target. It suggests you anticipate a strong and sustained bullish trend.
Long
by Brian_Philips
Bitcoin Overall: Significant RallyLast week I provided a less likely breakout up scenario--this is what occurred. My personal emotional feeling is absolutely disbelief -- cue the various emotional cycle charts. The speed of the advance (after relatively vicious decline)... The fact is, this is a rally with at least some staying power. If there is a significant retracement in the rally from the nearby resistances, we should at least expect a push to the large resistance. It the rally shoots relatively quickly to the big resistance, I would expect a significant retracement, but potentially thereafter new ATH. The trend is up at the moment, carefully-selected long opportunities are more attractive. Shorts are dangerous in a market such as this except at strong resistance.
by Ian_Carsen
BTC is Still A Correction.BTC is in good rally these days, but my believe is that it is still in a correction. I am not 100% confident in wavecount, but I am confident that BTC is not done correcting until it has gone down to somewhere between 62.500 - 52.500. If the rally BTC is currently in, I believe we are seeing a flat, and I will correct my count accordingly.. But right now I'm seeing a W-X-Y-X-Z correction. Be careful, and do not bet on BTC is rallying to a million just yet ;) For now I believe there will be good odds for following the white line I've drawn on the chart.
by TheDane
BTC - down next?BTC cleaned up some internal bad highs yesterday, just missing the npoc the we marked out. Immediate rotation back down to VAL followed once we accepted back in side VAH. These levels are updated continuously as price develops and differ on each traded pair (since volume is different everywhere), so I treat them more as a small zone than actual levels. Weekend price action so far showed continuation of the spoofing work that marked most of last week. If price can hold around these levels, I still think we can visit the higher POI and maybe sweep the bad highs. If we lose VAL, all POIs are on the chart: 82k npoc / zone 77-79k OTE retracement, would clean up a lot of inefficient price action 74k lows sweep
by Tealstreet