Bitcoin Long-term Holder CyclesViewing market cycles through the lens of long-term holder behavior can provide valuable insights. This chart tracks the collective balance of long-term holders, highlighting periods of accumulation (green) and distribution (red) across different market phases.
Distribution phases align with bull markets, and we are currently in one. The duration of these phases can offer clues about what to expect in the current cycle—assuming market dynamics remain consistent.
The first accumulation phase lasted approximately 1,000 days , followed by the second at ~820 days , and the third at nearly 800 days .
The first distribution phase lasted ~530 days , the second 420 days , and the current one has reached 385 days so far.
At first glance, this may suggest a contracting cycle. However, with only three data points, it's premature to establish a definitive trend. A more prudent assumption is that the current distribution phase will follow a similar duration to previous ones—likely spanning 400 to 550 days.
For illustration, if this distribution phase were to last 500 days, it would place its end around mid-May. However, this still leaves the most critical question unanswered: how does this relate to price?
Historically, distribution cycles tend to end after market cycle peaks. As prices decline, long-term holders gradually slow their selling and begin accumulating again. This suggests that a market cycle peak before May should be considered a logical scenario within the current cycle.
