6/24/24 - $nke - Setup long into print but I'm on bench6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NKE
Setup long into print but I'm on bench
Quick comment on this softline bellwether.
- Look at "NKE/SPY" on trading view e.g. look at Nike as compared to the S&P "comp". Puts you back at 2013 levels. In other words it's been a pretty bad "money"
- recent result was weak/ consumer still yet to be cracking, and they'll really have to blow out of the water AND talk about how they're taking share
- on this taking share point - have you noticed all these co's beating NYSE:ONON , NYSE:DECK , NASDAQ:CROX etc. that aren't obviously true comps, but nonetheless - taking the core business and growing in other areas Nike can't directly address. I'm not an expert here, but from my arm chair this matters
- valuation is 27x PE... not "cheap". 3.5% yield and growing MSD at best is better cash - but again so are most A-tier brands.
So in sum i'd expect a beat but it's hard to see institutions backing up the truck and adding. Look what happened to NASDAQ:LULU , gave a lot of it back, didn't stick. Smaller co. Probably a better MT-LT grower (vs. NYSE:NKE ). Cheaper PE too.
It's tough for me to like this one into the results even if the chart looks like a good setup as this a. tape is rich/ toppy (for now - more on this later) and b. the stock has not been a good store of value so there needs to be an inflection in sentiment and facing this current consumer + being industry leader (so harder to "buck" the trend)... no me gusta mucho.
I'm on the bench, warming up for a better pitch.
Gl to longs. lmk if i've overlooked anything
V
