AMD trade ideas
AMD - BULLISH SCENARIOAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) has projected $2 billion in 2024 sales from a new chip designed to compete with Nvidia, helping their stock rebound after missing quarterly expectations. While their gaming and certain programmable chip segments faced challenges, AMD expects the MI300 chip to generate $400 million in Q4 revenue, with a 2024 sales forecast of $2 billion. AMD is preparing to launch the MI300X chip, aiming to rival Nvidia in the data center AI market. AMD's CEO, Lisa Su, mentioned that multiple large hyperscale customers have committed to using the MI300 chips. Despite these positive developments, other segments faced difficulties.
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💵 E a r n i n g s J o u r n a l📶 S T A T I S T I C A L A N A L Y S I S
Current 50-Day Market Trend: short/sellers/negative.
Next Swing: positive swing to resistance.
Next Wave: buy wave to the deviation.
Next 50-Day Market Trend: long/buyers/positive.
Trade Type: Touch & Go don't wait for a close.
💵 E A R N I N G S A T A G L A N C E
Release Date: 10/31 AMC
Quarter: FQ3'23
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Revenue Anticipations: positive surprise of Revenues.
Revenue Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #4
Revenue 2-Year Trend: the company trend in Revenues is positive.
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EPS Anticipations: positive surprise of EPS.
EPS Surprise-Confidence: on a scale of 0-9, #5
EPS 2-Year Trend: the company trend in EPS is neutral.
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📝 S Y N O P S I S
🟢 Buy ~ If the earnings report is above the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will buy the +surprise.
⚪ Neutral ~ If the earnings report is released with complicating press, I expect the market will avoid the surprise and invest in alternative securities.
🔴 Sell ~ If the earnings report is below the Wall Street consensus, I expect the market will sell the -surprise.
🔎 R E S E A R C H D E P T H
Technical Analysis: daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis: EPS & Revenue data.
Press/News: none.
Social Media: none.
☝️ P R O V I S I O N
The analysis presented is incomplete work thereby can't safely trade in the Market by itself.
Buy AMD before they report earnings tomorrow..We highly recommend buying AMD into the close today ahead of their Q3 earnings report tomorrow where we are expected to hear a beat in sales and hopefully a better than expected report on the sales of their MI300X AI chip.
I believe that Lisa Sue will give several positive updates on the business and its strategy moving forward which should lead to an incline in the stock price back towards the previous swing highs for the stock around $120/130 a share.
AMD to below 40The giant run up over the last year accomplished one thing: forming a giant glaring lower high. people don't see it, they think we're forming a cup and handle. they are dead wrong. the big stocks with unreal PE ratios are all going to crash back down to earth. We KNOW that the fed cannot fix inflation without a recession and crash. the irrational runup over the last year is just more fuel for the dump. Zooming out to the monthly we can see this happened twice in the 2000's and remember AMD was priced below 2 dollars just a few years back. The giant runup we had since that 2 dollar market is going to almost completely retrace. do not take a long position in the faang stocks, they are a timebomb and they are about to go off.
Some thoughts on AMDI expect AMD in the second half of the November at $86-87 and probability of the bounce will be quite high because:
- there's a level at $86-87
- EMA 200 is expected to be at $86-87
- down trend line at $86-87
- RSI will meet the level at 40
Globally I would expect AMD at $74 in the mid of April 2024 and after this the trend should be reversed and go up.
AMD Inverted H&S (4H)AMD on the 4 hour chart is creating a possible head and shoulders pattern at a demand/support zone (Blue zone).
Additional confluences:
- Falling wedge at a key support/demand zone
- RSI bullish divergence (Illustrated by blue slanted lines.)
- MACD histogram bullish divergence (Illustrated by blue slanted lines.)
- 4H candles creating a double bottom at the base of falling wedge
Swing Idea: I will watch for price to move above the next resistance at the yellow zone between ($101.46 - $101.72). Creating a higher high than higher low before holding above the yellow zone. This move is Illustrated by the solid black line with the arrow. Being that this is an inverted head and shoulders pattern, I am looking to swing to the neckline which is located at the next major resistance at the red zone above between ($111.09 - $111.77). Stop loss is daily timeframe candle close below $99.07.
TARGETS: $104.67, $106.93, $109.85
STOP LOSS: $99.07
CAUTION: AMD has earnings reporting on October 31st so this will either destroy this trade or put us deep in profit.
AMD Call ( Anti Alt Shark - Shark ) or ?There are 2 scenarios in my mind, both of them cancel if we break last low ( We can reevaluate then ), It's happened a lot with me when we break channel and retest it with HH, so I prefer scenario 1, which is the one that C higher than A, But I will watch the golden fib ratio before that if we assume its wave 2 and we gonna go for wave 3 , And last thing don't forget AMD's next earnings date is ( Tuesday 10/31/2023 After Market ).
AMD NeutralAMD Support at 200MA or $135.
If AMD stays and breaks out of this triangle which its been in for years on the support end and decades on the resistance end, we could see AMD in the thousands of dollars.
My personal opinion is we haven't yet seen the highs of the "AI Bubble."
Feel free to zoom in and out of chart.
ANALYSIS ON AMDDear Traders and Investors,
I'm sharing with you this analysis on AMD to tell you to close your position if you're holding a long trade, as you can see in the chart, the price pulled back on the 0.5 level of the fib and gave us a confirmation, now it's heading towards the 0.6.
For further question, don't hesitate to ask!