US Downgrade, 3-5-10% Pullbacks But Still Bullish on S&PHappy Sunday!!!
US Futures open lower after Friday's close and Moody's downgrade.
Last time this occurred in 2011, the S&P dropped around 10% from the "news."
This is all interesting timing but I'm still liking pullbacks for opportunities to position
bullish in the US indexes (S&P, Nasdaq, Dow)
Because the melt-up continues to run (US/China gap last week and drift higher), I'm trying to stay patient for a pause or pullback
Trump and Bessent are still chirping about Tariffs and a government "detox" so a round of trade war related news may help calm the market's red hot advance post April 7 lows
I'm selling calls on owned positions for income. I'm waiting for more favorable levels to add new positions, but within 3-4% of all time highs for the S&P and Nasdaq I don't think anybody will be surprised to see the all-time highs revisited in the near to medium-term
Let's have a great week - thanks for watching!!!
-Chris Pulver
DIA trade ideas
$DIA - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened DIA with a gap up and over the trump tweet gap and we were met with resistance right at the downward facing 30min 200MA
You can see the three arrows all week — you don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average.
Wednesday UHC and Jerome powell both took a toll on the Dow, and Friday we gapped down and traded near the bottom of the implied move.
I look to the Dow as a leading indicator of market health. When we started in slide down off of ATH’s we saw it in the DOW first. Dow had a rough week here last week. Red 35EMA rejected at the 30min 200MA
Technically a beautiful week. All while closing within the implied move.
ALSO - take a look at where we saw the signal line turn red.
$DIA Boom From the Bottom to the Top of the Implied Move
The entire Trading Range is sitting on top of the 200 Week Moving Average.
Alright - Yesterday - We stayed completely with in the implied move - you can see that both sides got tested which gave us some wild swings. Spreads on both ends paid. 10% intraday moves
We hit the bottom of the implied move, the top of the implied move and we saw resistance at the 35EMA.
$DIA Historic Drawdown Week in Review A historic drawdown week with unprecedented tariffs not seen since right before the great depression.
We broke many supports and are looking for Support
Stay Tuned - Today's Trading Range is coming out.
Don't rush into a trader just to trade - But also, if you see a great opportunity take it.
04/04 aka Doomsday Daily Trade RecapEOD accountability report: +$725
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: rly bad
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:49 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
11:00 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal (triple buy signal)
1:02 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal,
1:25 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal,
Another wild day, market went extremely bearish and has been rejecting the 1 min resistance and playing out as expected.
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 18 2025 AMEX:DIA - Trading Levels for March 18 2025
Not too much to write today because I’m on Spring Break and even though I am trading I’m not at my computer as much.
We are Neutral bearish here being above the 30min 25EMA but under the 30min 200MA - premarket taking it right to the 35EMA
Super interesting spot here - we closed right at the 200DMA. Just under it and then premarket is starting us off lower.
Grab this chart and let's GO!!!
Long Term Support Bands Crossing DownsideThe long-term Support Bands had officially crossed down today. Signaling a longer down trend correction for the market. Only time will tell, but last time they crossed to the upside it was pretty accurate, so let see this time how the market is going to digest all News around the new Presidential decisions for Tariffs, Federal Reserve fighting Inflation, and a possible recession.
DIA ETF, just wait a little more to buy!European investors pulled money from U.S. equity ETFs in February for the first time since May 2023, showing a stark contrast with their American counterparts.
U.S. equity ETFs based in Europe recorded $514.7 million in outflows during February, according to Morningstar Direct data. This reversal came despite an increase in overall European ETF inflows to $35.3 billion during the same period.
finance.yahoo.com
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 13 2025
That 35EMA LOL.
DIA being a leading indicator of market strength is flashing a warning signal here. If we don’t take it back above the 200DMA that will kill the momentum of the long bull run and we will go back down to the 200WMA.
I want that as we are long overdue for a correction but I also want to be careful to read the signals and not my bias. Let’s see how this weekly candle closes.
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 12 2025
Our trading range today here is completely underneath the Weekly 35EMA.
That is big. You know what happens when we close under that on the week, right 🫣
Ok I'm being a little dramatic but still - watch for a cross up on the indicator, looks like it could be a little divergent to give us a swing up today. maybe to the 200DMA
$DIA - Trading Levels for March 11 2025
So we are AT the 200DMA, and under it. So if we continue this momentum down and it becomes resistance than the next support is at 400.
Ok with that out of the way, today’s trading range is between 409 and 431 based on Fridays contract. That is UNDER the weekly trading range with that low of 418
We still have some upward momentum on the 200DMA which makes me think we stay flat-ish (as flat as you can with volatility so high)
You typically don’t want to go short at an upward facing moving average.
$DIA Trading Levels for March 7 2025
That Weekly 35EMA is in focus and it’s a big level and it’s going right through the center of the trading range. I’m expecting a fight here to hold this level, even if for a technical bounce. If there’s no technical bounce here than things are worse than we think.
Let’s goooooo!!!