DIA trade ideas
DIADIA closed at 312.42. DIA's price action is slightly less bullish than the other indicies, implying weaker relative strength. It's possible that DIA can perform worse this week relative to other indicies. I would avoid trading DIA in this range, as it doesn't have much support if it breaks down more until 300.
Crab/Crooked WThis looks like a crooked W, and seems most of the time Ws are bearish, but not always. The second leg of the W pushed up to the .786 and the last leg of the W ends at the 1.618. Quite a run up on that last leg up but price turned back down at almost exactly the 1.618, so this does line up as a bearish crab. A level of support can help DIA out.
There is also a bullish crab and it appears as a crooked M. If one is familiar with harmonic patterns, it is possible to go long or short on the different legs of the pattern, be it a bearish harmonic pattern or a bullish one.
Gravestone Doji noted close to the top. The Gravestone Doji is very similar to the Shooting Star pattern and both reversal candlesticks appear at the top of uptrends and have longer upper shadows. The main difference is Shooting Star has a visible body whose close price should be ideally below the open. The gravestone doji has no true candle body and the open is virtually at the close. The top wick on both of these candles is much longer than the body. The candle today keeps changing from a Doji to a spinning top. Both are candles of indecision.
No recommendation
Iron Condor DIA 13 May 2022DIA 13 May 2022
The current implied volatility is at 24.22%/year
So that converted into daily is 1.52%
Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price
which is 320.6(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 5 points from the open candle value)
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within
TOP 325.5
BOT 315.5
From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset.
At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for DIA were
TOP 335
BOT 314
DIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Weekly - Support, Resistance, TrendlinesDIA (Dow Jones ETF) - Weekly chart.
Support, Resistance, Trendlines for reference.
05/11/2022.
Dow Jones taps 250SMAI didn't even think it was a thing, but sure enough when I inputted 250SMA on the DIA chart, I see it bounced off $344.35 which is right next to 250SMA ($343.71). I think it's smart to hedge and hold or roll put protection while setting up long positions going through earnings season. Here's important levels on the 1 day chart:
52 week high = $369.50
52 week low = $298.59
SMA250 = $343.71
SMA200 = $349.78
SMA150 = $352.37
SMA100 = $354.20
SMA50 = $465.66
breakout = $380.17
R3 = $375.64
R2 = $371.12
R1 = $366.59
pivot = $362.06
S1 = $357.54
S2 = $353.01
S3 = $348.49
breakdown = $343.96
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
7 Common mistakes:
+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation
7 Important tools:
Trading View app!, Brokerage UI
Accurate indicators & settings
Wide screen monitor/s
Trading log (pencil & graph paper)
Big, organized desk
Reading books, playing chess
Sorted watch-list
Checkout my indicators:
Fibonacci VIP - volume
Fibonacci MA7 - price
pi RSI - trend momentum
TTC - trend channel
AlertiT - notification
tickerTracker - MFI Oscillator
www.tradingview.com
How I Day Trade DIAPer request!
Let me know your questions below/comments/critiques below.
Thanks for watching!
DIADIA closed at 329.07. Overall DIA doesn't look too different from SPX. It put in a slightly better day with a green doji on Friday, but the higher timeframe look is similar. DIA does have more range to recover, and needs to test 340 before bullish intent can be restored. Underneath this level, DIA has historically weaker support, so it's more likely we can see DIA flush harder in the event that the market continues to drop.
DIA Short trade walk through and reviewDIA short trade walk through and review of entry and trade management used. Result was R:R 1.45 on the trade.
DIADIA closed the week at 329.69. Compared to the other major indicies, DIA looks the least bearish this week. DIA held up better than QQQ did as it's components that had ER posted slightly better results on average. DIA did not yet break beneath the previous local low at 328, nor the critical low at 322. It's likely to test both of these levels this week.
DIA over extended down, sellers in control. Risky short target.DIA is in down trend, and sellers are in control, but it looks over extended to me now. There is a risky short entry presented in the video.
DIA multi timeframe analysis. Short bias still in place.DIA is in a down trend, and that is the path of least resistance (as Brian Shannon likes to say). It's been on a fierce downtrend for the last few days, and looks likely to go sideways and/or test resistance before continuing down.
DIADIA closed at 338.27. DIA put in a double top after weak price action moving into the 351 area. DIA broke beneath support at 339, and can move to test lower quickly now. DIA had the most exaggerated move. Puts can work underneath 333.
Breaking down, Breaking apart (DIA)- breaking-down terminated the uptrend channel
- breaking-apart revived the heal-and-shoulder neckline and penetrated it.
- Lack of support could make these one-two punches fatal for DIA.
Head and Shoulders/Channel DownBearish diversion between price and RSI a while back. DIA has been unable to top the ATH since the divergence completed. Price can take a while to correct a divergence between price and RSI, but as a rule, the divergence will correct.
Many draw the bullish divergence on the valleys and a bearish divergence on the peaks.
The Pandemic bottom was 182.10. It seems like we have come a long way down from the high but price has not even hit the 38% mark of the long impulse wave up, and whether or not price hits these levels again remains to be seen. Look down, down and then a little further down and you will see the 38 and the 50% levels marked )o: The .618/62% and .886/89% levels are also marked. I did not realize how far this index had come until I tried to draw the fib levels. It was a stretch to say the least.
There are many possible support levels below and well below price. I got tired of drawing them! Anyway, when one support level is violated, I set an alert for the next level and re-evaluate.
Looks like an ugly top and price has penetrated the neckline slightly today with a bearish, Marubozu candle. At this moment, the top and bottom of the Marubozu is shaven which is very bearish. The neckline is support until it is broken with a confirmed downtrend. Price has broken this neckline before and recovered. Looks like an inverse head and shoulders formed and price came back up.
There is also a descending channel pattern, also known as a “falling channel” or “channel down“. A break out above the upper trendline generates a strong buy signal, while a break down below the lower trendline generates a strong sell signal.
The descending channel pattern is also known as a “falling channel” or “channel down“.
As long as prices remains within the descending channel , the downward trend in price can be expected to continue.
SPY and QQQ appear to be in a channel down. SPY was trading in a megaphone pattern but appears to have settled in to a channel as well. I have not looked at the Russell/IWM in detail as of yet, but just glanced at it and I see a bear flag that is correcting.
No recommendation, except be safe. There will be rallies up a long the way and it can be a good time to sell if you feel the urge. The market is unpredictable and it is a bad idea to try to forecast the future (o: We can only look back, down and all around and make an educated guess.
I am sure the economy is not helping the market right now. But the market has come a long way since the Covid bottom and maybe it is just "that time" )o:
Wondering if DIA/$DJI just got bid up so MM's can push it down?Since RSI dipped down below 33.33 I want to see if it turns down from under 66.66, and if so then puts should work from 348 back down into Monday. Bought 14Apr 146 puts, very small position.
Disclosing my secrets: Growing a small accountYou know, I stan DIA.
But I figured I would share why DIA is such an awesome stock and the stock I used to grow my small account in like a month when I started quant trading (Day trading by technical the only account I could grow was a 50 K account down to 0.20 C. :-/).
I found the easiest way to growing a small account were straddle stocks. DIA is the perfect straddle stock. I have an indicator for DIA that I developed just using my math calculations. At the beginning of the day it gives me a projected high and projected low for the stock.
You may have seen a similar type setup I did with TSLA. But let's look at it with DIA:
Today (April 7th):
April 6th:
April 5th:
April 4th:
April 1st:
And it goes on and on.
Verdict?
When you are growing your small account, really my best advice is to avoid these stocks like TSLA, AMC, GME etc. etc. etc. Meme stocks are generally just betting. You might as well go to a casino. The best way is to chose stable stocks, like DIA (it used to be SPY but no longer would I consider SPY stable LOL) that are predictable and less aggressive.
Get a feel for the market and find little gems like this where you literally can just straddle it and come out ahead each day.
Other stocks similar to DIA that I have used straddles (please note, as of the current market conditions, straddles are hit and miss on most of these stocks):
SPY (debateable)
USO (lately its been erratic but still straddleable)
RTX
There are more but I'd have to charge you ;).
Anyway, just thought I would share some insight.
Let me know your questions/criticisms, etc. below.
Thanks everyone!
Such a Neglected StockWhy is this stock so neglected?
I am a stan for DIA. I like it much better than SPY tbh. Nice options that move that reasonably priced and much more stable.
Lately, this has succumbed to similar volatility as SPY (which is curious because it used to always trade independently of SPY) but DIA is still one of my go to stocks if I want an actual day trade and not a scalp.
But let's hopefully stir some interest in this neglected cousin of SPY and do a bit of an analysis.
So, DIA is looking ... well, identical to SPY on the daily.
Maybe a TAD more bearish looking, but I anticipate it to do what SPY does (and thus, ultimately, its a cheaper alternative to trading SPY if you really think about it. Has better option prices, better greeks, etc. so.... yeah, hint hint ;) ).
But seriously, I actually am far more bullish about DIA than I am about SPY from a technical/mathematical perspective.
Let's look at the monthly chart of DIA since its nascence (below):
And now SPY
DIA has also traded extremely stably but honouring a quadratic type relationship over time. You can see this plotted out statistically in the graph below:
DIA's quadratic relationship to time yields an R value of 0.941 whereas SPY's is 0.840. What does that mean? It means that DIA has been growing at a reasonable and expected pace that is fairly linear and stable.
Thus, using this to plot out DIA's natural price currently, we get a price between 326 and 343, with its current price being 349 based on the following formula:
DIA Qudratic price = (Trading Days * -0.037) + (Trading Days Squared * 1.167E-5) + 118.704
(Currently on day 6094)
= 326
So this is fairly natural growth, IMO.
I think if the market does go into full fledged bear market and we see huge dumps. DIA will follow regardless. But if I had to be bullish about any ETF it would definitely be DIA.
Outlook for Tomorrow
As usual, I will give levels for tomorrow.
DIA's range for tomorrow is 345 - 351.
I am looking for a high around 350 to 351 with a bullish break over 349.08 (DIA operates in a much tighter, more narrow range than SPY).
If it turns out to be bearish, I am looking for a break below 348.79 towards 345.
But I am interested. For anyone actually reading this. Please share your thoughts on DIA! I am genuinely curious to hear what people think of this/whether they trade it/ etc. etc.
Why is this poor thing so neglected? Even YM futures is very neglected with minimal volume.
It is a slow mover, I get it. Its not as fast pace and sexy as SPY. But really, when you're tired and lazy, the slow movement is actually a welcomed relief!
Anyway, please share your thoughts on this!
Thanks everyone and trade safe as always!
diadia
this is the diachart
there is good stuff here
nice prediction from last week
last week still holds true
Rising Wedge on DIA (ETF)After the rising wedge, the price breaks down. This was at the beginning of the pandemic. Therefore, the fundamental analysis is stronger technicals.
