DIA trade ideas
$DIA due for leg down to complete expanding triangle correction$DIA looks to be due to begin leg 4 down of an expanding triangle corrective pattern following a 5 wave impulse up from the March lows to August. Leg down should fill some gaps on the daily. Alternatively, if DIA breaks through the top of its channel, then we're in an extended 1st wave, and all bets are off. The channel has held since 2008, however, so I believe that count is less likely.
Symmetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel VIXSymetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel.
Volatility Rainbow [Nic]What is this
The volatility rainbow tracks divergences in a security and its volatility index. This can be used to identify periods of heightened implied (future) risk.
About Volatility
The volatility is calculated by looking at put / call ratios. When VIX goes up it means that puts are outpacing calls. This is a bearish signal.
About Correlation
When the security goes up while the VIX goes up, the divergence on the plot will increase and turn a color. This should be a warning.
Colors
RED - DIA
BLUE - SPX
GREEN - IWM
GOLD - GLD
YELLOW - QQQ
ORANGE - TLT
White- VVIX
DIA - RSI Bearish DivergenceChart says it all. Looking back to the beginning of the year we see the same set up. Market is due for a breather. Tertiary stocks going parabolic. Now is the time to protect long positions.
Forecasting H&SDowntrend due to covid from head. Uptrend due to right shoulders from vaccines implementation. Downtrend from there due to Blue Georgia upset. Let's see how this plays out. Have a safe holidays everyone.
You hate to see it - DIA cooling off?Industrials have been hotter than hot this year and you hate to see the Dow industrials of all things go down but, is this a temporary short here? A sharp correction might follow this big gasp up even if further rallying is eventually in the cards?
DIA: Ready to Fill the GapDow has shown recent bullishness however that might be coming to an end soon. We gapped up today over a low volume area but we have several confluent supports coming up in that zone including anchored vwap, moving averages and trendlines.
I do expect us to retrace and fill at least some of this gap, but we may go lower to test the vwap's and moving average supports.
On top of that, we also have our moving average delta indicator beginning to turn down which signals the momentum of a move or a possible reversal, in this case it looks like downward momentum is gaining.
Of course we could get news to send us higher but I have a lot of concerns with the gaps beneath us and the volume support. I am short term bearish on the dow because of those reasons but things could always change!
Ideally, the bulls need to gain control above the bottom wedge trendline for me to have bullish confidence.
AMEX:DIA
$DIA REMAINS WEAK (STILL BEARISH)* TAKE AWAY FROM POST: We're expecting to see
*NOTHING HAS CHANGED, still seeing the Possible second wave of implosion
Minimum target is 15% in blue.
Although we are still seeing weakness in the market, it is imperative to remember that this is a longer time frame.
Meaning, It could take weeks/months before we start to see significant price movements.
We also believe that we could see a climatic top (10-20%), since the price is ranging above major support/resistance level, before the market shifts.
***As always, let's talk about it***
Decision point for $DIA is now. Short term 60 day fib says 265On our short term 60 day (+ or -) fib 265 is the low to expect. If we breach that expect 263-262 as the next point.
Lots of profit taking before the election and lots of in decision is causing these drops.
A lesson on candles (Heiki Ashi, Basic)During the session today, it may have seemed as if DJI and SPX bottomed and were in the process of moving up. However due to the lack of a green Heiki Ashi candle, an actual trend reversal did not appear to be underway. Instead today proved to be an opportunity for a short position with the entry at the prior day's close and an exit near the low of the previous day.
Dow Breaks Support with negative trending MACDSeems like a big potential to make some money on the short side in the DIA. QQQ who knows. But COVID getting bad again and we are probably facing more lockdowns.
$DIA Top of down channel testResistance at the top of the channel. If it holds, the chances of more downside within this channel is pretty good. No position. Watching.
A Fractal Suggests that the Dow Was Correcting Upward All AlongIf you don't care to study fractals or don't understand their importance, then here is a perfect example that can shed some light.
I'm going to safely make the following assumptions with regards to the charts above and state a few facts to prove something meaningful about the Dow Jones' price action over the past 9 months:
1) The Dow Jones was in the middle of a corrective wave 2 yesterday afternoon into today's morning action.
2) If you measure the extensions of the "C" wave vs. the "A" wave, they are both exactly 1.618 times the length on the big picture daily chart and the 5m fractal chart.
3) Fractals appear in nature and in any other self-similar complex system, like financial markets. They exist in this context to extend out the price action horizontally to better align the various price movements of different timeframes to the broader trend.
4) In doing so, they offer an incredible amount of insight in terms of what exactly has happened and what exactly will happen in the near future, but on larger timeframes.
5) It is reasonable to say that the 5m fractal looks self-similar, such that it closely mimics the broader trend in form and relative length.
If all these assumptions/facts are considered true, then it must be true that the Big Picture of the Dow Jones' Daily Chart is, indeed, a very large CORRECTIVE wave.
This would make sense because:
a) I can only count 3 large zig zags on the daily timeframe
b) the top of the cycle does NOT make a new all time high
c) truncation is very rare and unlikely in this case because of how dynamic and exact the price movements have been and
d) the prior move down appears to be a clear Wave 1 diagonal
Now, if it is true that the Big Picture above is actually a large corrective wave , then that means we are currently in an impulsive Wave 3 down. Ultimately, this matters because the projected price target is necessarily significantly lower than 18,500.
Also, this look has been very difficult to point out because the S&P and Nasdaq were NOT in corrective waves upward. The Dow simply had to follow suit, which makes it seem like all three indices are aligned in their grand wave structures.
They are not, and that is huge news to me at least.
Thoughts on this are appreciated because I believe this is a pretty significant finding if proven true.
CURRENCYCOM:US30
SPCFD:SPX
NASDAQ:NDX
DOW JONES Head and Shoulder formationAMEX:DIA
The Dow jones DIA is at a critical point right now. We are at the 50d Avg and the support of a head and shoulder breakline. Both SPY and QQQ are going to end the week triggering a weekly MACD sell signal. And cyclicals are not on our side (mid of septamber till mid of october been the wors months)
DIA's Plunge to an Icy DeathIt's slippery out there - both up and down.
But especially down.
Just a basic roadmap to navigate the blizzard and potential avalanche.
Expect similarly dangerous slopes for SPX and NDX.
- Perma Frost Pig
AMEX:DIA
CURRENCYCOM:US30
SPCFD:SPX
NASDAQ:NDX
