DIA trade ideas
DIA Price LevelsThe great GME crash. Hedge funds forced to sell winners and crash the market to bail out their looser.
Could go as low as 10% down. Keeping a close eye on price action near historic levels and put walls.
How Much More Can It Go DOW?I plotted some ranges and timeframes to get a better understanding how, in a worst-case scenario if history were to repeat itself exactly, when and how much we would tumble and fall.
Firstly, it showed that we could potentially go up as high as 320ish before the waterfall.
Secondly, the first drop, if like the March waterfall, could hit as low as 253ish.
Obviously history is unlikely to repeat itself exactly, but this seems like a very plausible outcome to me. Perhaps the fall will not be as large because it is more expected this time, but I do think we, as humans, run in cycles.
And like a washing machine running a load, our buzzer is going to go off.
-FIB
Out of the Realm of Possibility DOWApparently standard deviation means nothing to the markets right now. Even 99.5% probability has .5% of possibility in it.
We are well out of the range of normal, whatever that means, as I attempt to illustrate in this linear regression model.
Perhaps we have another month before the disaster, but based on the significantly larger increase in price than the preceding dive in March, timing may be sooner as a function of it being relative to magnitude.
Only time will tell.
Low Risk Weekly DIA Credit Spread (5% gain on capital invested)I'm looking to enter a Put Credit Spread on DIA with the goal of collecting $5-$6 worth of credit per contact with a $1.5 wide spread. I'll be holding till DOE with the intention of growing capital invested by a minimum of 5% for the week.
-Current price is: $308
-Credit spread sell strike: $290
-Current price to sell strick: 6.2%
-Is price trading above 50 day SMA?: Yes
-Is price trading above 200 day SMA?: Yes
-Percent OTM if held to DOE upon entering, is: 92% - 94% of being OTM if held to DOE
-Technical analysis: DIA is trading above 50 and 200 day SMA which signals that we are in an uptrend. Our sell strick has been placed below .382 (292.5) fib retracement level. This price zone has held as support in the past I'm looking for it to hold again this week.
Let me know what you think. Have a nice day.
$DIA due for leg down to complete expanding triangle correction$DIA looks to be due to begin leg 4 down of an expanding triangle corrective pattern following a 5 wave impulse up from the March lows to August. Leg down should fill some gaps on the daily. Alternatively, if DIA breaks through the top of its channel, then we're in an extended 1st wave, and all bets are off. The channel has held since 2008, however, so I believe that count is less likely.
Symmetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel VIXSymetrical triangle, bearish wedge & uptrend channel.
Volatility Rainbow [Nic]What is this
The volatility rainbow tracks divergences in a security and its volatility index. This can be used to identify periods of heightened implied (future) risk.
About Volatility
The volatility is calculated by looking at put / call ratios. When VIX goes up it means that puts are outpacing calls. This is a bearish signal.
About Correlation
When the security goes up while the VIX goes up, the divergence on the plot will increase and turn a color. This should be a warning.
Colors
RED - DIA
BLUE - SPX
GREEN - IWM
GOLD - GLD
YELLOW - QQQ
ORANGE - TLT
White- VVIX
DIA - RSI Bearish DivergenceChart says it all. Looking back to the beginning of the year we see the same set up. Market is due for a breather. Tertiary stocks going parabolic. Now is the time to protect long positions.
Forecasting H&SDowntrend due to covid from head. Uptrend due to right shoulders from vaccines implementation. Downtrend from there due to Blue Georgia upset. Let's see how this plays out. Have a safe holidays everyone.
You hate to see it - DIA cooling off?Industrials have been hotter than hot this year and you hate to see the Dow industrials of all things go down but, is this a temporary short here? A sharp correction might follow this big gasp up even if further rallying is eventually in the cards?
DIA: Ready to Fill the GapDow has shown recent bullishness however that might be coming to an end soon. We gapped up today over a low volume area but we have several confluent supports coming up in that zone including anchored vwap, moving averages and trendlines.
I do expect us to retrace and fill at least some of this gap, but we may go lower to test the vwap's and moving average supports.
On top of that, we also have our moving average delta indicator beginning to turn down which signals the momentum of a move or a possible reversal, in this case it looks like downward momentum is gaining.
Of course we could get news to send us higher but I have a lot of concerns with the gaps beneath us and the volume support. I am short term bearish on the dow because of those reasons but things could always change!
Ideally, the bulls need to gain control above the bottom wedge trendline for me to have bullish confidence.
AMEX:DIA
$DIA REMAINS WEAK (STILL BEARISH)* TAKE AWAY FROM POST: We're expecting to see
*NOTHING HAS CHANGED, still seeing the Possible second wave of implosion
Minimum target is 15% in blue.
Although we are still seeing weakness in the market, it is imperative to remember that this is a longer time frame.
Meaning, It could take weeks/months before we start to see significant price movements.
We also believe that we could see a climatic top (10-20%), since the price is ranging above major support/resistance level, before the market shifts.
***As always, let's talk about it***
Decision point for $DIA is now. Short term 60 day fib says 265On our short term 60 day (+ or -) fib 265 is the low to expect. If we breach that expect 263-262 as the next point.
Lots of profit taking before the election and lots of in decision is causing these drops.
