DUST trade ideas
DUSTDUST appears oversold right now. The TSI is oversold and at previous places where reversals take place. I am looking at a move up out of a descending wedge pattern to complete the AB=CD pattern. Also getting a stochastics cross LE recommendation. Expecting a similar move higher as seen Yesterday, the 9th. Note this is a 15 minute chart
This is the best technical indicator that exists for gold.In the prospectus it basically states that this instrument is engineered to "possibly" go as close to zero as possible. That will eventually happen. I have no doubts at all. But... for that to occur we'd need gold to start moving substantially higher. That is not happening anytime soon. Maybe another 80 dollars per ounce, but don't see it gaining more ground than that before testing the $1000 level. Notable traders have repeatedly stated that gold conforms with charting techniques better than most other products. I completely agree with that statement. Simply stated, gold historically respects structure and rhythm. If that is the case, then so should its counter derivative, DUST.
The bet here is simple, buy gold when DUST is trading at an "extreme" high. Short DUST to the ground when it's at an extreme. (Careful with shorting DUST, since DUST too could breakout, and it could breakout strong, so this particular execution strategy is definitely not suggested. It is best to just buy gold at DUST's extreme level.)
Or...
Consider buying DUST at $11 - but be very careful with buying this at $11. Double check the structure and confluence for gold and that gold would be at an unlikely point to breakout.
DUST looking good for a trend upside moveDUST looks to be in trend mode with a near term target 22 with outside chance of 28. The gold price is about to fall down the rabbit hole and likely take the miners with it. Is gold oversold? yes, but bearish long term trend remains.
This could be the finale that leads to the final washout low in gold.
So in the meantime scalp opportunities in DUST seem wise.
Will NUGT cross DUST in January?The average time between DUST/NUGT crosses the last 2 times is 82 bars. If that happens near the average were looking at the end of January. I think NUGT has more downside first but I would like to see 1125-1150 hold for gold and 8-8.50 hold for NUGT before getting too excited.
Target Hit Dead-On; Bulls Still Aiming higher | $DUST $GOLDFriends,
Last September 12th, a series of bullish targets were defined as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 32.97 - 12 SEP 2014
2 - TG-2 = 37.76 - 12 SEP 2014
3 - TG-Hi = 41.23 - 12 SEP 2014
and
4 - TG-x = 52.76 - 12 SEP 2014.
(Source: See "$Gold Could Still Brush $Dust Off Bulls, Flat Out | #elliottwave - Link: ).
At the time, the market was heavily favoring bears, but the predictive/forecasting model suggested a potential rallying to these levels.
As of today (08 OCT 2014), TG-1 got hit dead-on and price rolled down to carve a potential higher-lo (although there is no clear indication that it is done retracing).
Although the model did suggest a refinement in the bullish target (TG-Hi = 51.32), I will keep the chart as is, for the sake of simplicity and honesty (I want the targets to reflect the original predictive analysis and forecasting).
If anything, this loftier TG-Hi suggests that gold brushed itself off a bearish floor, and shows technical clues of further bullish intent.
The original chart is played out on a daily level, so feel free to request updates and opinions. I will do my best to respond whenever feasible.
Thank you,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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$Gold Could Still Brush $Dust Off Bulls, Flat Out | #elliottwaveFriends,
Following is a brief technical synopsis of the interpretation I would make, given an asset giving off signs of reversibility from my predictive/forecasting model, as well as from a "Game Theory" approach by way of reverse engineering a high-probability set-up given the current set of conditions, in a "forward retrospective" fashion.
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING MODEL BLIPS (ALMOST) GREEN:
On its own, the predictive/forecasting model has posted an early BULLISH reversal sign, pending its signal confirmation in $DUST.
In fact, IF the model were to generate a Bullish Market reversal confirmation signal, it would offer the following overhead target potentials - Again, signal confirmation remains pending at this time:
1 - TG-1 = 32.97 - 12 SEP 2014
2 - TG-2 = 37.76 - 12 SEP 2014
and
3 - TG-Hi = 41.23 - 12 SEP 2014
ELLIOTT WAVE'S FLAT AND EXPANDED FLAT:
While data is still crackling in the old Apple Macintosh Plus, it is worth taking a few steps back and first define the trend (DOWN) and strength (TAPERING) of the current market conditions. This is one step I prefer to include using both the H4 and DAILY timeframes, as they tend to provide a synthesis of both retail and institutional footprints in terms of price action.
The H4 timeframe (not included) indicates that price is currently recovering at 1.131-Fib from the prior down swing. If you consider the wave counts, you might realize that a set of two 3-wave patterns generate an upswing, then a down swing, leading us to the recent lower-low.
If you know the basic EWP pattern options, this leaves up with a corrective Flat option, of which TWO come available:
1 - The Regular Flat, whose wave count comes as 3-3-5 via A-B-C points, respectively
and
2 - The Expanded Flat, whose wave count and points are similar except that Point-B would exceed the point of origin of Wave-A, and Point-C would exceed the point of origin of Wave-B.
Here is a link to visualize what I am describing:
-
These flats are corrective, in the sense that they move counter to the major trend, which in this case is DOWN. This, the net result would lead these patterns to move UP as they reach their last point of completion.
THE BIGGER PICTURE:
Now that we have defined the two sorts of Flats, there is one detail that I thought might now just to your mind's eyes, which is that a larger Flat (the "Regular" kind) could potentially develop as well. In fact, independent from the predictive/forecasting model, a proprietary pattern (Euclid Pattern) also defines a "Worst Case Scenario" which is colored in purple in the chart. It defines this outer most level as:
- TG-x = 52.76 - 12 SEP 2014
.
Running the model in that "Worst Case Scenario", it yields the following nearby value of 51.32:
- TG-MODEL= 51.32 - 12 SEP 2014
Here is a link to the same chart, projecting that LARGER Flat:
-
OVERALL:
A Bullish Market Reversal Confirmation Signal remains pending. Until then, above analysis remains to be proven. For this reason, I will keep TradingView's Directional indicator as "Neutral". However, a recent analysis I released on $XAUUSD (see "Related Links" below) would tend in that direction as well.
Feel free to chime in, report pertinent fundamental and technical events as you wish. This is free access, and I will join in whenever I can with pearls, lessons and relevant information as it comes through.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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