$EEM: Long term bottomThe time seems to have come to consider allocating to Emerging Markets here, I am thinking of entering a position today. India and Mexico are set to benefit from decentralization of supply chains, China is about to get stimulus to consumption from govt, and AI is generally a source of growth and higher efficiency for the world going forward (solves the issue with demographics deteriorating). Oil has fallen enough to create a long term tailwind to earnings going forward and demand destruction from it being too high is out of the way (its effects were felt in a recession that took place, combined with CB actions causing further damage.)
Now the Fed has to reverse course, as a bonus, and China credit growth is accelerating again (after being negative for a good while)
I would secure some gains in healthcare to get an Emerging Markets allocation, I had a big position in the top profitable healthcare names as a defensive bet, but AI changes many long term levers here. I do like the idea of trading healthcare actively though, but Emerging Markets seems like a better proposition now and healthcare names are over extended (like NYSE:LLY , NYSE:TMO , NYSE:WST , etc.)
Many valuations are very attractive in Asia currently, and technical setups are getting traction. It's go time.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EEM trade ideas
EMERGING MARKETS 7 year bottom is in. Huge upside potential.The MSCI Emerging Index Fund (EEM) is posting a bottom rebound pattern similar to early 2016 and 2009. All all cases the 1W RSI previously broke below the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded strongly. As you see these bottoms take place approximately every 7 years. This indicates that the Emerging Markets are only at the start of a two year mega rally.
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Head and Shoulders on $EEMThe $EEM daily chart is showing a massive Head and Shoulders formation, with the Neckline set at $38. This could be a sign that the price will soon break to the downside, as Head and Shoulders are usually considered bearish reversal patterns. The market will now be watching for a break below $38 in order to confirm the bearish reversal. If the price does break below $38, traders may want to consider shorting the $EEM as the price could continue to decline.
MSCI EM and DXYDollar and EM markets.
A non Brainer with 1:1 correlation.
The DXY (black line) is inverted to show the coorelation with EM.
Strenthening Dollar means weaker EM and vice versa.
Soince with rate ris eback inti the limelight, the DXY should rally an dEM would be under pressure. The weakness of Chines Equity markets which makes up 31% of MSCI EM would also be a factor.
EEM: Emerging Market MSCI (EM) : SELLEmerging markets equities had to clear many hurdles in 2022 but began to recover in the fourth quarter.
But technically, there are hurdles, The Red sloping line of 2021 is the prime example.
After the steep drop in equity markets overall in 2022, It is believed that emerging markets equities may be one of the most mispriced asset classes, with attractive valuations compared with historical levels.
A 15% drop cannot be ruled out...fundamentals are strong, but technicals will sadly rule.
Nowhere to HideEmerging markets have made some terrific gains in the past month, but I would caution with the path ahead. Take a look at the past year's performance of the Hang Seng, KOSPI, IBOVESPA. I've included a chart of the Tadawul, the Saudi stock index, which is significantly weighted in EEM, the emerging market ETF. These are not healthy charts, and rallies provide opportunities for shorting in my opinion.
EEM's breakout from its downtrend will be tested as it compresses between the 50 & 150 EMA's. As of right now, it needs to close above $39.20 to invalidate a daily Head & Shoulders pattern.
Asia is GREAT again !I believe the year 2021 and probably the next few years would be dominated by Asia markets, especially China and Hong Kong.
EEM ETF has just broken out of its long term weekly resistance at 52.04 and is poised to go higher in the coming months and years ahead.
Thus, I would be focusing more on Asia stocks , selective ETFs like this one to gain a wider exposure to markets like Korea, Indonesia , Vietnam,etc.
EEM: retesting 0.61 and heading lowerEmerging markets is completing a complex correction from an Elliot wave point of view.
The first leg of the C wave started in May21 and is currently retracing before heading lower.
Dollar index broke out and is now retesting the top of its previous range going back till '15.
Secondly EEM and Dollar index are inverse correlated when the market is trending.
VIX lift-off will coincide with this second leg.
Emerging equities likely to outperform Developed equities?The idea is to buy EEM and then to short-sell IVVon a relative basis.
A price action above 0.0955 supports a bullish trend direction. Crossing below this level will negate the bullish stance.
Adjust Target level as the price action is developing further.
MACD bullish crossover applicable (see the lower panel)