GDX trade ideas
GDX - Bullish EntryI AM WAITING FOR FILL ON THIS ENTRY
Chart Details
Bull Flag with bullish breakout.
RSI bullish breakout
Weekly trend just turned bullish.
Gaps to fill above. Good entry at lower gap fill around $28.70
Entry Options
Waiting for fill - 1/31 Expiration - 27/31 Put Credit Spread. Take $220 Credit. Max loss $180. Breakeven GDX at $28.80
About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
The 2020 GDX OUTLOOK>>YIELDS|STOCKS|FED Policy& GOLD>>(Part 2/4)Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19'
Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart:
1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing . From part 1/4 analysis on yields(Ref #5) it seems that yields are looking somewhat bullish. Of course, this is based on the assumption that "Not QE" will continue and eventually QE-4 will be announced . Nevertheless, this means that equities will continue to be bullish, even in sectors such as materials (Ref #6). If we get another series of rate cuts, GDX could breakout as early as Q2 of 2020. For further discussion on QE and monetary policy, visit part (1/4) on Treasury yields:
2. Recently there has been somewhat of a small bounce in PMI's . This was expected as the global monetary policy stance of CB's took a dovish turn in 2019, and the easing environment affects the real economy with a lag . Taking this into consideration, $GOLD may continue the horizontal path that it is currently on. This bounce in the macro data may be very dependent on the outcome of the trade negotiations , which hopefully we will find more about in January.
3. Not expecting gold to make new highs in the first half of 2020 . As the election cycle unfolds, there should be more volatility depending on the election circumstances. It's still very early, but it doesn't look good for the Democrats, in which case a breakout in both GDX and GOLD may be postponed . It's all labelled on the chart.
To sum up, based on more accommodating monetary policy, the bottom line in GDX should hold above 27$. The horizontal range (27-31.25) should sustain before we get a breakout triggered by either the election cycle or potential economic shocks . This is a perfect iron condor trade setup . Materials as a sector has been very under-weighted and hasn't performed well, compared to the cyclicals . As the global economic slowdown continues, it seems that there isn't any downside in holding gold as a stock market hedge . Either way, balance sheet expansion favors all assets, especially substitutes for the dollar- gold.
Tried my best to keep it short and simple, this it for GDX and GOLD.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
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References & Disclosure:
1. FED rates Super-cycle 1980's-
2. Dollar/Yuan breakdown, trade progress and tariffs:
3. Previous Gold chart:
4. XAUXAG, Gold aginst Silver ratio:
5. Treasuries and QE:
6. XLB Sector, US materials:
Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
Gold Miners Going Up My portfolio is GDX, GDXJ, Silver, Gold which have averaged a bit over 25% since jan 2019. Gold and Silver will outperform all asset classes through the next 3-5 years they have not outperformed everything in 2019 US tech has went up 49% and bitcoin 100% however this is going to change. Bitcoin is in slow longterm downtrend never going above 14k again, US stocks will get hit with massive bear market recession within 3-5 years. The portfolio has out permed bonds, foreign stocks, and real estate. But 3-5 years form now it will beat out everything.
TRENDS for next 3-5 years
Bonds are bad because of low interest rates and real inflation is 9%
Foreign stocks are undervalued in relation to US Stocks so they may be heading up
US. real estate according to zillow will get hit hard in 2020
Bitcoin headed down to 1k by the end of 2020
US stock bubble will pop 40 - 60% drop
$GDX Possible Head & Shoulders Bullish pattern targeting 32.3 Bullish pattern as much as it Hold 27.13 targeting 1.23 fib and uptrend resistance at 32.3 or maybe up to 34
[Long] Miners waking upIn the wake of today's FOMC, Gold did NOT get slammed down. That's pretty bullish.
GDX has been relatively strong to Gold and its technical picture is shaping up VERY bullishly.
- Break of downtrend line(s)
- Backtest of such lines
- Strong pop off the 50ma
Fundamentally, Gold is extremely bullish. Central banks can't stop won't stop printing.
Gold Miners Setting Up for a Great 2020!My followers and readers know my fascination and excitement about Gold and Silver. Being well versed in economic history, one cannot avoid Gold. Human history is cycles of hard money and soft money, and come 2021, we will be in the 50th year of this soft/fiat money cycle. Interestingly enough, Neil Howe and William Strauss in their book “The Fourth Turning”, predict that there will be a historical cycle which will be ending between the years 2020-2025.
On this blog, and with my work on Gold, I have mentioned how it is a confidence crisis asset. There are 3 reasons why Gold will be going higher in the very near future (can read in link below). Gold rises when people lose confidence in government, banks and the fiat money. You can see a lot of this occurring now. Trump impeachments and passing government spending bills to avoid shutdowns, piling up the debt. The Federal Reserve doing repo which is over the tune of 300 billion a day and Jim Bianco saying this will just increase in size. Central banks racing to the bottom by cutting interest rates to devalue their currencies. The macroenvironment is there for Gold to shine.
Just a reminder that Gold and the US Dollar can move up together due to being safe havens. I have outlined why I expect the US Dollar to move higher, and how this will cause the problems in the world to exacerbate. Also, remember that Gold priced against other major currencies (the Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, the Yen, the Yuan, and the Euro is very close) has already broken out into all time new highs in 2019. This is a sign regarding where these fiat currencies will be going.
With central banks likely to continue their easing and stimulus, calling it something else other than QE to avoid a confidence crisis, real rates (nominal rates and inflation) will be negative yielding. Another reason to hold Gold. However Gold does well in both inflationary and deflationary environments, and really boils down to it being a confidence crisis asset.
Billionaire Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones have recently spoken about Gold and how one should own it. Dalio’s words on Gold and his “paradigm shift” environment may very well have lead to large institutions and hedge funds to increase their positions in Gold. These larger funds will be playing Gold in 3 ways: buying physical bullion, buying the GLD ETF, and buying positions in Gold royalty and streaming companies, which is one of the best business models invented.
Let’s get to the chart of note, and perhaps the chart of 2020.
The fundamental reasons for Gold are there as described above. The chart of Gold also has given us a nice signal and we are awaiting for a higher low for Gold, which could occur as early as January if the Fed does cut rates again. Currently, the market believes there will be no rate cuts until Fall 2020, but this can be tested and would impact Gold once more cuts become priced in.
GLD is the ETF for the Gold Miners. Our market structure analysis shows us a very exciting market. On the weekly chart, Gold has had a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, and then we began to base and consolidate. This consolidation has occurred for 7 years and the resistance level has been tested 4 times in these 7 years. This is a very important level to watch.
As you learn in my course, all markets only move in 3 ways, and we are very likely to be breaking out into an uptrend to validate this claim. From the break I expect higher lows and higher highs. For those dubious about this pattern, take a look at the Gold weekly chart which had this same pattern. We are still awaiting the first swing on the weekly after the break and run up to a new flip zone level:
Forecasting a great 2020 for the precious metals, and I think it is worth considering positioning yourself for this now.
GDX - Chugging along!GDX price action is very constructive. The impulse leg that marked the beginning of the correction appears to have concluded and it looks like we are beginning to make a series of higher highs and higher lows negating the downtrend channel or flag pattern. I like gold and silver to rise fairly significantly in 2020. RSI and MACD trending upward. Fib levels acting as support. Need the rest of the market to sell off to send this up with conviction. Traders waiting until 2020 to book profits and push of taxes until 2021. Don't miss out on this next run-in the metals space.
GDX - Update - Current PatternI AM NOT ACTIVE IN THIS POSITION. WAITING ON ENTRY.
GDX failed to breakout yesterday. Most likely tied to continued Fed Repo liquidity keeping SPY artificially inflated (see SPX chart link below for news).
Current Daily pattern shown in last chart was extended. Weekly view shown on this chart best shows pattern.
Still in a bull flag formation. Pattern ends around end of February.
RSI trend breakout failure shows trend is going down.
Next Weekly and Daily trends and both bullish flip. Once this occurs we are in good position with both Daily and Weekly to confirm bullish entry.
I will watch the pattern and update if anything occurs by pattern end.
If anyone would like an update, let me know via chat.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC
GDX - Bull Flag on Weekly - Waiting for Bullish Trend to ConfirmI will update once the trend on Weekly turns bullish on GDX to confirm entry. Not entered
GDX is bullish in pattern formation currently.
We are at the end of the bull flag pattern. Ready for next leg up.
Price recently crossed 10WeekMA which confirms bullish trend.
RSI trend has also consolidated similar to price pattern.
Longer Weekly RSI trend (yellow) is bullish. Intermediate term trend (white wedge) is bullish breakout pattern.
I am waiting for Weekly trend to confirm bullish trend for entry. Market is too fickle for early entry.
I will update once I see the Weekly trend turn.
If anyone wants me to take a look in between chart updates, contact via PM. No problem.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC
ridethepig | Gold Miners Breaking Out!After months of choppy waters, finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork right on time to position for 2020 flows. For all those tracking the current leg in Gold by now it should be crystal clear:
Those momentum traders will know the highs will be eclipsed over the next few sessions, generally prefer buying dips. What I am most impressed by is the opportunity found with my long candidate for mining companies in 2020:
For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, sit tight reflationary risks are around the corner.
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
GLD- Gold ETF consolidates above strong support at $26GLD pulled back from the Sept’19 peak of $30.98. The ETF has been consolidating above strong support levels: the $ 25.98 low on Nov 12, 2019, 200 day MA at 25.33, and 50% retracement of the 20.14-30.96 upswing. The bounce over the past few weeks seems to coincide with the overall recovery of commodities, commodity currencies, and energy. GLD is likely to continue range-bound and resume rally in the new year.
Happy Trading!
GDX - Bull Flag Breakout - Weekly Bullish Trend FlipOn Weekly chart shown, GDX formed a bull flag and is ready for breakout.
Price went outside wedge and retested 10WeekMA/outer wedge of triangle - looking good.
Buy signal on today's Daily candle. Weekly candle still on buy signal at end of long bearish trend.
Weekly rend shows next flip is Bullish. Next Daily trend flip is also Bullish.
RSI trend is also forming bullish wedge pattern. Same level as Bull Flag breakout beginning.
Gaps to fill (red boxes) line up with 1.618 Fib extension.
If SP500 sells off or VIX spikes, then I expect GDX to get bullish.
EXITS
$34 (top gap fills)
RSI over 70
Giant cup formation (pink curved line) can only be seen on 19D chart or greater.
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, and VIXY.
Short SPY, AAPL
GDX vs Golda nice, long term bottoming pattern so far, just need more time??
Short term bearish medium and long term bullish. 2020 should be great!
$GDX Bullish taregting 29 Resistance 28 Entry 27.25Bullish setup for Uptrend targeting 29 . Resistances 28-28.5 . Stop loss 27 . Best entry at 27.25
GDX over GDXJ all the time, in every market, forever.$GDX is benefitting from consolidation in the gold miners space which should be expected to continue as companies continue to find ways to manage expenses while exploiting dwindling economic resources. GDX is safer and offers the same upside as $GDXJ. $GDXJ should be used for cherry picking stocks out of when you can find a company with a transformational project or projects. One such company we started buying last December is Coeur Mining $CDE with its Silvertip mine. Get to know the companies you invest in. We are buying GDX on all pullbacks. Support appears to be in the middle $20s and upside is well past $40.
Final Bounce Rally There is an obvious expectation of a final bounce along the down trending support set to propel gold upwards, based upon 3 factors: 1) "Market goes down, Gold goes up", 2) Sentiment surrounding an "inevitable" downturn in the market to come is a powerful proponent, and 3) Chart indicates a high likelihood of a rally in Gold, if the first 2 factors begin to dissuade market climb.
