GDX trade ideas
$XAUUSD $GDX 20% pop to year end - BARRONSbarrons.com/articles/gold-could-rally-by-20-in-the-second-half-51556875802
GDX - Metals Trading | Elliott Wave Structures I Q2 2019*If you like this idea please support it with a like so I can publish more. Thanks!
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GDX - Elliott Wave Outlook
Bullish Swings - Patterns:
ABC swing in Intermediate (A) (green
Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (green)
Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (green)
Bearish Swings - Patterns
Sharp Bearish Impulse in Intermediate (A) (light blue)
Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (light blue)
Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (light blue)
Bullish Harmonic Pattern
Next expected swing:
Bullish leg in an attempt to reenter the Channel.
Structure change:
A breach on the down-side in an impulsive manner could lead towards a down-trend confirmation for Precious Metals.
GDX 5 Wave Up? Watching how GDX reacts to $20.50-$21.30 level to see if it can move up on 5th wave in the medium term. Long-term chart is quite confusing. Wave 2 looks quite complicated, has potentially to not be done and retrace almost all of Wave 1. See how it performs in the Med term to see which way it will go.
The metals (GC, SI) are pulling back which can coincide with GDX's move back down to $20.50-$21.30 and then keep moving up
Elliott Wave View: More Weakness in GDXElliott Wave view calls the decline in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) from March 27, 2019 high ($23.40) as an impulse structure. In the chart below, wave 2 of that impulse ended at $22.93. Down from there, wave 3 ended at $20.67 and wave 4 ended at $21.43. The miners still need to break below wave 3 at $20.67 to validate the view and avoid a double correction. The internal of wave 3 subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree. Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at $21.89 and wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at $22.29. Down from there, wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at $20.71, wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at $20.97, and wave ((v)) of 3 ended at $20.67.
Wave 4 bounce unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at $21.19, wave ((b)) ended at $20.76, and wave ((c)) of 4 ended at $21.43. Near term, while bounce stays below $21.43, and more importantly below $22.93, expect the miners to extend lower. Potential target to the downside for wave 5 is $19.6 – $20, which is where wave 1 = wave 5.
GDX -Waiting for a buy setupWe are getting closer and closer to an important buying opportunity in gold miners.
Though yesterday we almost tagged the 200 SMA and bounced I still don't see that buying opportunity what i like to see at the gold miners bottom.
At the beginning of today's trading we broke above yesterday's high which is usually a buy signal but after a few hours of trading we gave back all the gains and closed in the red.
I think we are quite close to the bottom in days - 4-5 days only - but these last few days can be extremely scary as we print the cycle lows.
First of all I dont see the volume spike what usually occurs at these intermediate bottoms:
The other thing that we stiill have a gap between 20.5 and 20.8 which pulling down price like a magnet:
Today was the 5th day since we broke below an important level at 21.41 and usually these breakdowns lasting for 7-8 trading days:
Today was day 5 of the breakdown.
So I would wait with the buying till next week in the miners as we might have 3-4 red days ahead in the upcomong trading sessions.
Gold Miners - Take Profits SoonThis is a continuation of my previous post on gold miners. I would recommend checking out that post and the updates to get up to speed on the current trade.
Profits so far should be at least 15% if you’re trading leveraged ETF ($DUST). Personally at around 20% gain so far in the trade.
I plan to take profits on the entire DUST position soon since GDX is getting close to oversold levels. Probably has a few more days of selling to go based on today’s heavy downward momentum.
Maintain overall bearish view of gold miners as long as there is a lack of negative macro news flow to boost gold prices. I’ll be updating this post daily in case general market sentiment start reversing from positive to negative, check this post regularly if you want to get a head start on trading the reversal!
You can try to scalp the bounce off the support once GDX is oversold, but don’t over-commit because it’s hard to precisely say how much it’ll bounce.
GDX(daily chart). At sup TL, 200, WW target, Gartley, Butterfly.GDX(daily chart). At sup TL, 200, WW target, Gartley, Butterfly.
GDX Looking to continueA few days ago I posted a video showing the potential drop on AMEX:GDX . You can see it here .
It has done as expected.
Now, with the moving average crossover and the consistent volume on this bearish move, there is a strong chance to see a bit of a rally soon and then continuation. It is a great chance to consider entering short on a rally to either add to an existing position, or to enter a first position.
GDX - Signalling a long-term up-move?The bottom in the precious metals has been forming since early 2016. As you can see from the chart of the ETF for the gold miners, GDX, it had a quick rally that year and then went into another sideways pattern until January 2019. Now the chart appears to be getting ready for a stronger up-move.
You can see that a long, bullish potential inverse “head and shoulder” pattern has formed.
A breakout in the near-term would mean that the early 2016 low was a false downside breakout on a major (longer-term) scale. Such breakouts usually have very strong moves in the opposite direction, in this case upward.
For more insights on Gold and our long-term forecast, get our free report "Why Gold Could rise for the Next 10 Years".
gdx broadening?$nugt $dust $gdx $gdxj $jnug $jdst $gdxj
Potential for more pain for miners before a powerful run up
Gold Miners - Bearish Thesis ConfirmedWhy I’m bearish on Gold and Gold Miners in the short to medium term:
All the following items provide a positive market sentiment, and a stronger willingness for investors to allocate money to risky assets such as stocks rather than safe haven assets like gold, and therefore selling of gold miners.
1.) Still strong US economy, based on the slew of positive economic data we’ve been seeing. Examples would be low jobless claims, good nominal wage growth and low inflationary pressures.
2.) Long end interest rates (10 yr) are rising due to reduced investor fears, causing a decrease in attractiveness of Gold, which is a non-yielding asset.
3.) US Dollar Index has been consolidating for the last several trading sessions, representing a bullish signal in the short term. Provided that we have a positive economic backdrop in the US currently, probability that it breaks out to the upside is high.
4.) Corporate earnings are likely to keep surprising to the upside, since projections have been lowered so much over the last few months.
5.) More likely for positive rather than negative news to come out regarding US-China trade deal. Both sides are committed and evidence suggests a positive outcome.
Feel free to comment or send me a msg if you want to discuss more in detail or if you have different views. You can also check out my blog at gdxdaily.com , this is where I post in much greater detail regarding my analysis.
careful miners$gdx $nugt $dust $gdxj $jdst $jnug
bearish gart (xabcd) I'm bullish on gold long term but I don't like this. CAREFUL NOW
GDX Triangle, Downside Preferred~Haven't touched stocks or ETFs for a while and now I decide to get back to my favorable Gold stock analysis.
We can easily spot that flag on 4H or Daily chart of GDX, normally with previous bullish price action, gold has slightly more chances on breaking the top side of the triangle.
But!! When I zoomed out to weekly, it tells me a different story. GDX was unable to break the resistance, and I'm thinking that we are on a beginning of a small bear. And I'll post the screenshot below.
I'll keep this post as long as I can and I may consider to enter a trade once there's a breakout on the triangle.
Gold Miners - Time to Short?This was posted on my blog at gdxdaily.com last night, be sure to follow it to get notified first of any new trade ideas! The ideas will also be explained more in detail on the blog.
Trade summary:
Given recent macro updates I believe the short to medium term outlook for gold miners is starting to look bearish, this is due to multiple factors that will likely boost the broad equity market sentiment. Below are some of the reasons:
1.) Fed committing to their stance that rates are good where they are, and most likely won’t change it for the rest of the year. This gives investors one less thing to worry about since the rates are accommodative right now. With the possibility of rate cuts lower and rate increases back on the table, investors will be less attracted to gold.
2.) The slew of US economic data coming out so far points to a still healthy economy with good job growth. China is also actively injecting their economy with growth as well, so we may get positive economic surprises from their data as well, which will boost market sentiment and drive down gold prices.
3.) The fact that the US and China have a plan to resolve the enforcement issue for the trade deal (which was one of the biggest roadblocks) is a promising sign, we could be getting more positive trade news which will ease investor fears and drive more money flowing from safe assets to riskier ones.
4.) Corporate earnings will be the next big wave of data driving the market. We’ve had many downgrades on earnings projection so far in the last couple of months, therefore the expectations are already low. There’s a high chance for some positive earnings surprises, easing investor fears and more capital will start flowing into the equity markets. Once again, a negative scenario for gold prices.
I’ve started to add to my $DUST position, with currently 10% of a full position at an average cost price of $17.5, and will be looking to add more as it retraces. The entry points in the chart are general points where I think it might retrace to, but it may change as I see what the price action looks like. Be sure to check the updates to this post and my blog to see my daily update on any entries I take.
GDX Gold Miners First Take Profit Reached, Still Long Short TermThis is a continued trade based on my previous post. This was posted on my blog yesterday night
We have a big week ahead of us with potential updates on several important political event, along with some important economic data being released throughout the week. The news that we should keep our eyes on are updates on the trade deal, and vote outcomes of the Brexit extension set to be voted on Wednesday. US and China are in what seems like the final stretch of signing a trade deal that could help boost the world economy, however we can’t discount the multiple occasions where US trade reps admitted that there are still issues which need to be resolved before a deal can be made. As long as investors are still in the dark, markets will likely trade in a range as the speculation continues.
Wednesday is looking like a big day in terms of catalysts that could drive the market in one direction, at least in the very short term. We have the decision on the Brexit extension, as well as CPI numbers coming out in the US. These indicators and events could help Gold break out of its recently tight range and make a strong push in one direction. As previously mentioned in my daily posts, Gold has been consolidating at the bottom end of its descending triangle, meaning it’s found support and more likely to breakout to the upside than downside. As of writing this, Gold is up 0.4% overnight so far and I believe it’ll push up to at least the downward trendline.
The US dollar is still relatively flat, and looks to be consolidating as well near the top end of the ascending triangle. My current view is still that it’ll likely trend down after some more sideways trading, however my thesis depends on the price action this week so stay tuned for my daily updates.
Yields are starting to slip as investors wait for more catalysts, with CPI numbers and the Fed minutes being the most important ones this week.
Gold miners will likely continue its short-term trend upwards given the bullish sign from Gold. While I am bullish on miners in the short term, I will be actively taking profits as it hits the previous resistances marked on the chart. My medium term view is still unclear and depends on further macro development and more concrete directional news flow. I will also be watching the price action throughout the week to gauge sentiment that might be helpful in my predictions.
Have a great trading week everyone!
GDX Call - 4/1/2019Quick pop on GDX to follow by continued down trend. Current condition is oversold and ROC convergence identified.
Trade responsibly; TP & SLs
GDX Short - 4/1/2019Please see graph above, short potential on GDX with set TP/SL.
Trade responsibly.
GDX Not Done YetGold falls as US dollar rises, accompanied by an across the curve rise in yields. Today’s macro news was relatively light with GDP data coming in slightly lower at 2.2% vs 2.4% expected, and initial jobless claims 211K vs 225K expected. There was a new piece of trade news indicating that China is willing to give the US more access to its domestic cloud-computing industry.
The market is currently looking for more directional signals, whether it be from trade news or economic data. The yield curve remains inverted when you consider the 3 months and 10 year, however that does not give a clear sell signal as of yet. The initial sell-off due to the inversion was quickly bought up, indicating that there’s still a lot of bullish momentum. A recent JPM analyst showed that even though the 3 and 10 inversion preceded all the recessions, it wasn’t until months later that the market turned negative. In fact, the market performs has historically performed well right after an inversion. What I believe is most likely is that the SPX will trade in a fairly large range until a string of positive or negative news can push it into a longer trend. Range is between $263 and $285, it seems like a large range but when considering the amount of volatility we’ve had over the last year, it’s not unlikely that we may get a 5%-6% correction, especially since the SPX has been trading at the top of its range over the last 6 months. If the correction does come, I believe it might cause some investors to think the same 2018 sell-off is happening, and pile into gold as a safe haven.
Yield Curve Forecast:
Yields will likely remain flat and trade within the current range, unless a string of positive economic news is released. The 10 yr is likely to trade within the 2.35%-2.45% range. This will help support gold prices in the near future.
US Dollar Forecast:
The US dollar has recently consolidated and has finally pushed upwards towards its resistance at 12275 (US dollar index). It’s currently trading in an ascending triangle pattern and could be stopped again at that key resistance. If that’s the case, then I expect the US dollar to fall to the sub 12100 levels. This will help push gold prices up further in the near term.
Gold Miners Forecast:
I believe gold miners still have more room to run for several reasons, most are mentioned above:
1.) The probability of the US dollar going on a major bull run is slim.
2.) Yields should continue to be pressured downwards/staying in this low range
3.) Uncertain backdrop of global growth won’t cause a major sell off in safe haven metals such as gold
I’ve accumulated 10% of a full position in $NUGT today at $20.47 at that first support, which it proceeded to break through in the afternoon. Looking to add 30% of full position at $19.05 and then another 30% at $18.
Short Term Bullish On Gold MinersGold miners have seen decoupled correlation with gold prices over the last couple trading sessions; while showing more correlation with broad equity market movements. SP:SPX just broke a key resistance level with heavy volume, meaning bullish moment in the short term. I believe this will help push AMEX:GDX upwards in the short term towards it's recent peak.
GDX experienced some profit taking after the 7% surge yesterday due to the Fed leaving rates unchanged and having a more dovish tone. However, despite the selling, GDX managed to pull back into the green, indicating new buyers are coming in.
Gold prices should remain supported enough to avoid negatively impacting gold miner stocks. Yields are still in a heavy downward momentum as investors are piling into bonds because of conflicting news regarding the economy. US dollar price action is showing an ascending triangle, therefore indicating that it's still bearish in the short term unless we see a breakout above resistance with strong volume.
Positive Economic Catalyst
Feds are leaving rates unchanged and derivatives market is pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a rate decrease by 2020.
Given that low rates support the attractiveness of gold, gold miners should have a higher probability of increasing as well.
Negative Economic Catalyst
Once again Feds are reiterating a slow down in the global markets that could affect the US economy, which is in a good state right not, but not impenetrable from external shocks.
Still a lot of uncertainty over China trade deal. When will it be signed? What will the details be? How long will the tariffs be kept after a deal is signed?
If we do get a sell off due to market fears, this should help lift gold prices.
***Caveats to this analysis:
1.) The resistance at ~22.95 is too strong and not enough buying power to push past it. In this case it's very likely that a new trend will develop in the absence of any further macro developments
2.) Broad equity markets could sell off sooner than expected and cause gold miners to sell off as well. However as mentioned above, if markets sell off rapidly and fear kicks in, gold prices should rise due to its safe haven nature, which supports gold miners.
