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GLD trade ideas

Gold Spike Follow UpWow what a big down day! Not stocks - Gold, which was down more on 2/28/20 than any of the US stock indices. My 2/24/20 GLD post noted Gold/GLD could have a spike top near the new moon on 02/23/20, since then in spite of the virus panic Gold is down. The crowd buying into this "safe haven" got burned. High probability of more downside in the coming weeks. Stochastic has had a bearish crossover and is now in the neutral zone. RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the 02/04/20 price bottom. MACD has a bearish crossover. Very good chance GLD could reach the first support area. The vast amount of bearish evidence suggest a decline could last months and even years. Long term minimal target is test of late 2015 major bottom. Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
5
Gold needs to dip and resetCongrats to anyone who has been long gold and if you have now is the time to take profit. Overall I am bullish on the metal but its plain to see it needs to dip a bit and reset a base from which to continue up further. Three arrows on this chart point to a pair of highs and a low in b/w them that combined we can project Fibonacci timing points from that have served relatively well thus far as far as trend reversals are concerned and we can see that we are upon a 2.382 extension that will probably mark a dip that is already potentially happening. I would like to see pullback hold the upper 140s from which we can go long again.
AMEX:GLDShort
by TNasr
10
Gold has Very Powerful Sell SignalMoving completely above the upper Bollinger Band is probably the strongest possible sell signal. Its the signature of a panic climax and market upside exhaustion. Today 02/24/20 GLD moved completely beyond the daily Bollinger Band, one day after a New moon, with a daily RSI bearish divergence, Gold Commercials have their largest short interest in more than twenty years! This is about as good as it can get for signals in any market. This type of situation occurs only about once in a year, sometimes once in two years. Extremely high probability that a major Gold top could be in place. Yes, I know there's lots of scary "news" about the virus. Focus on the Gold markets indicators. The last time I had this much conviction of a market turn occurring was in late December 2018 with the US stock market. Please see my SPX posts in December 2018 and January 2019. Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
2
Gold Could be Spiking into a Major TopMy prior GLD post noted it was nearing major Fib resistance of the 2011 to 2015 bear market. That target has been achieved on the cusp of a seasonal bearish time that lasts until April. Additionally, Gold occasionally will peak at or near new moons. 2/23/20 is a new moon. Gold Commercials - their the group with the most money, have the largest Gold Futures short interest for in over twenty years! Daily RSI has a bearish divergence. I issue Red Alerts when there's overwhelming evidence of a bearish turn. If GLD and Gold are at a potential top, the subsequent bear market could last for years. This is a RED ALERT! Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
5
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #4- GLD - Put Debit SpreadTicker: GLD Position: - 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread - Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65 - Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04 - Net cost/ spread = $1.61 - Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes) Net cost = $805 Profit target/ break even/ exit: - Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width of the spread = $1.61 - $2.00 = $0.39 (24% of cost of spread) - If GLD remains under the short leg of the spread ($148) by expiry (21st Feb 2020) then the spread will have achieved maximum profit - Break even for the spread at expiry is the long strike minus the cost of the spread ($150 - $1.61) = $148.39 (white line) - Exit if GLD closes just above the break even point ($149/ Purple line) - Can also exit the spread earlier if 80% of maximum profit is realized = 0.39 (max profit) x 0.8 = 0.312 + 1.61 (cost of the spread) = $1.92 (more conservative exit price for the spread) Rationale: - GLD appears to be stalling around the $148- $150 range - Stocks are still a little too extended for me to look at longs, however i realize that higher equities are on the cards for the next week or so, this is a more conservative to way to play both the stalling momentum in gold and the relative strength in equities - The upside is capped with this strategy, however it is still a relatively good risk/ reward, particularly with the higher delta spread (short leg being delta 70) - TradingEdge
AMEX:GLDShort
by Profit_Link
GLDSystem T Performances: Annual Compound Profit 40%, Win Rate 55%, Risk/Reward Ratio 1:2, 20 Years of Backtesting Data, Over 100 Markets. * Click Like and Follow to Support My Work! --- Hi Traders, I'd like to introduce the System T, a computerized trading system that analyzed and backtested the 20 years history data of over 100 markets. This post is my sharing of how I think about systematic trading and the signals generated by the System T. (This is my opinion only, NOT the financial advice.) I think that for the system to open a trade and manage risk, it only needs a buy signal & a stop-loss signal clearly on the chart. Once the system finds a good trend, it will ride it as long as possible. The stop-loss will be adjusted accordingly to the new price movement. (Remember to follow this trade idea and follow my profile to get updates about the stop-loss adjustment and sell signal based on the latest price and market conditions daily.) System T performances above will give you an idea of how it performs in the last 20 years. Notice that this result was achieved only if I strictly followed the rule: "Only and Always Buy & Sell based on the System Signals". Don't sell when there is no sell signal as we all want to follow the good trends til the end like everything in life does. \(^-^)/ Also, my system is extremely diversified through over 100 markets so that it only risks less than -1% of the total capital per trade. Thank you and good luck! --- DISCLAIMER: I am NOT a financial advisor, and nothing I say is meant to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. My views are general in nature and I am not giving financial advice. You should not take my opinion as financial advice. This is my opinion only. Do your own due diligence, and take 100% responsibility for your financial decisions. Trading and investing are risky! Don't invest money you can't afford to lose, because many traders and investors lose money. There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. - Content is for education purposes only, not investment advice. - Trading involves a high degree of risk. - We’re not investment or trading advisers. - Nothing we say is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. - There are no guarantees or certainties in trading. - Many traders lose money. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
AMEX:GLDLong
by System_T
GLD - H&S pattern?Could be. Looks like there are some gaps that need to potentially be filled. RSI and MACD still not favorable but FIB support for now. I see $2-$6 of downside here with any positive news from coronavirus. Perhaps to the next fib level in the $144 range. Gold has all the reason in the world to be running away from us except for the market which continues to march higher as gold treads water. This is a tough call. Little slippage into the close for the overall market. Gold not catching any additional bid. I think the path higher for gold goes through a lower number. Bought a small amount of GDX, NEM and PAAS. No new NUGT purchases yet. Chart of GDX looks like the triangle inside the triangle will resolve to the downside.
AMEX:GLDLong
by BobbySpa
GLD and Gold Could be Rallying into a Very Important PeakOn 9/8/19 I posted that GLD had marginally exceeded the 50% retrace of GLD's 2011 to 2015 bear market. It looked like GLD could be in a decline down to the 130 to 134 area. GLD made a bottom at 136 and, could within about a week - rally into .618 resistance at the 153 area. Gold Seasonal patterns are bullish into mid-February then bearish into April. So far weekly RSI, MACD, and Stochastic have bearish divergences. The evidence from the Sentiment dimension for all three precious metals is very bearish. The Commitment of Traders Report each week shows the net positions of the main trading groups; Small Traders, Large Traders, and Commercials. The Commercials have the most knowledge and money - they are the group to follow. Platinum is just coming off the largest Commercial net short position in 20 years! Gold Commercials are close to their largest net short position in 20 year! Silver Commercials are close to the largest net short position in 5 years! Follow the money - the biggest money for precious metals are making big downside bets. If GLD can rally into the 153 area within the next 5 to 10 trading days, it could be the best shorting opportunity since the major top made in 2011. Mark
AMEX:GLD
by markrivest
GLD-Double top formation , AlphaOverBeta Trade AlertHello traders, GLD was spotted on the AlphaOverBeta radar as forming ( Asymmetric) double top bearish formation, this usually means that the next move is to the downside, The formation is incomplete and will be completed once the price pattern goes below the 145.5$ level , watch out for this formation since its a high probability trigger, once formed, which may trigger a bearish move in GLD for the short term, Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:GLDShort
by Alon_AOB
GLD - MAY ATTEMPT TO RALLY TOMORROW TOP OF DOWNTREND 0. GLD may make an attempt to move to the top of the current downtrend channel, but make no mistake about it, it is breaking down below this channel and following the major downtrend to $120 that will unfold, related to Chinese slowdown, and the non-purchase of it as jewellery, which is 60% of it's usage worldwide. 1. Kitco already reported horrid 2019 Gold numbers, and confirmed a long term downtrend. 2. Gold only caught a bid due to "negative rates", "The election uncertainty", and "Corona End of The World BS"; 3. Long term trend is down to the $120 area easily as outlined by both Morgan Stanley and Goldman back in the fall, when they said to take profits at $145, and wait for $120 to enter back in. That will come true soon. - drchelsea.
AMEX:GLDShort
by drchelsea1
3