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GLD trade ideas

GLD Is This Wave 4?The dramatic selloff in precious metals this week marks the end of a possible wave 3 of an impulsive wave. Silver looks much worse but thus far is holding above a supposed Wave 1. The alternative view, held by many, is that the recent rallies in PMs was a B wave in a corrective phase and much lower gold and silver prices are to come. WIll be watching silver closely for clues. Stochastics are falling for both metals especially on the weekly and monthly views. Things do not look good. There is nowhere to hide in this upcoming wealth destruction phase. Not shorting the market but squirreling up cash for signs of a bottom in both metals. With gold silver ratio breaking to 104 today. Silver has to be the most unloved asset ever.
AMEX:GLD
by Glewis54
2
GLD/SLV RatioGold has persistently pushed higher while silver has lagged causing the gold/silver ratio to hit an ATH. This is a high that dates back a century. As you can see from the 2009 - 2001 period when gold topped this ratio hit a bottom. it's been a long time coming but silver's time to shine will be here soon enough. I expect that silver will play some catch up while gold treads water. Silver's precipitous drop last week and gold's run up has truly skewed things. Watching this carefully but its time to accumulate a silver position in size.
AMEX:GLDLong
by BobbySpa
Gold Spike Follow UpWow what a big down day! Not stocks - Gold, which was down more on 2/28/20 than any of the US stock indices. My 2/24/20 GLD post noted Gold/GLD could have a spike top near the new moon on 02/23/20, since then in spite of the virus panic Gold is down. The crowd buying into this "safe haven" got burned. High probability of more downside in the coming weeks. Stochastic has had a bearish crossover and is now in the neutral zone. RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the 02/04/20 price bottom. MACD has a bearish crossover. Very good chance GLD could reach the first support area. The vast amount of bearish evidence suggest a decline could last months and even years. Long term minimal target is test of late 2015 major bottom. Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
5
Gold needs to dip and resetCongrats to anyone who has been long gold and if you have now is the time to take profit. Overall I am bullish on the metal but its plain to see it needs to dip a bit and reset a base from which to continue up further. Three arrows on this chart point to a pair of highs and a low in b/w them that combined we can project Fibonacci timing points from that have served relatively well thus far as far as trend reversals are concerned and we can see that we are upon a 2.382 extension that will probably mark a dip that is already potentially happening. I would like to see pullback hold the upper 140s from which we can go long again.
AMEX:GLDShort
by TNasr
10
Gold has Very Powerful Sell SignalMoving completely above the upper Bollinger Band is probably the strongest possible sell signal. Its the signature of a panic climax and market upside exhaustion. Today 02/24/20 GLD moved completely beyond the daily Bollinger Band, one day after a New moon, with a daily RSI bearish divergence, Gold Commercials have their largest short interest in more than twenty years! This is about as good as it can get for signals in any market. This type of situation occurs only about once in a year, sometimes once in two years. Extremely high probability that a major Gold top could be in place. Yes, I know there's lots of scary "news" about the virus. Focus on the Gold markets indicators. The last time I had this much conviction of a market turn occurring was in late December 2018 with the US stock market. Please see my SPX posts in December 2018 and January 2019. Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
2
Gold Could be Spiking into a Major TopMy prior GLD post noted it was nearing major Fib resistance of the 2011 to 2015 bear market. That target has been achieved on the cusp of a seasonal bearish time that lasts until April. Additionally, Gold occasionally will peak at or near new moons. 2/23/20 is a new moon. Gold Commercials - their the group with the most money, have the largest Gold Futures short interest for in over twenty years! Daily RSI has a bearish divergence. I issue Red Alerts when there's overwhelming evidence of a bearish turn. If GLD and Gold are at a potential top, the subsequent bear market could last for years. This is a RED ALERT! Mark
AMEX:GLDShort
by markrivest
5
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #4- GLD - Put Debit SpreadTicker: GLD Position: - 21st Feb 2020 Put debit spread - Long $150 strike Put - delta 0.90 - cost = $3.65 - Short $148 strike Put - delta 0.70 - credit = $2.04 - Net cost/ spread = $1.61 - Running 5x spreads (5x of both strikes) Net cost = $805 Profit target/ break even/ exit: - Max profit of the spread at expiry = cost of the spread minus the width of the spread = $1.61 - $2.00 = $0.39 (24% of cost of spread) - If GLD remains under the short leg of the spread ($148) by expiry (21st Feb 2020) then the spread will have achieved maximum profit - Break even for the spread at expiry is the long strike minus the cost of the spread ($150 - $1.61) = $148.39 (white line) - Exit if GLD closes just above the break even point ($149/ Purple line) - Can also exit the spread earlier if 80% of maximum profit is realized = 0.39 (max profit) x 0.8 = 0.312 + 1.61 (cost of the spread) = $1.92 (more conservative exit price for the spread) Rationale: - GLD appears to be stalling around the $148- $150 range - Stocks are still a little too extended for me to look at longs, however i realize that higher equities are on the cards for the next week or so, this is a more conservative to way to play both the stalling momentum in gold and the relative strength in equities - The upside is capped with this strategy, however it is still a relatively good risk/ reward, particularly with the higher delta spread (short leg being delta 70) - TradingEdge
AMEX:GLDShort
by Profit_Link